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The Surprising Trend in the Number of Homes Coming onto the Market

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If you’re thinking about moving, it’s important to know what’s happening in the housing market. Here’s an update on the supply of homes currently for sale. Whether you’re buying or selling, the number of homes in your area is something you should pay attention to.

In the housing market, there are regular patterns that happen every year, called seasonality. Spring is the peak homebuying season and also when the most homes are typically listed for sale (homes coming onto the market are known in the industry as new listings). In the second half of each year, the number of new listings typically decreases as the pace of sales slows down.

The graph below uses data from Realtor.com to provide a visual of this seasonality. It shows how this year (the black line) is breaking from the norm (see graph below):

Looking at this graph, three things become clear:

  • 2017-2019 (the blue and gray lines) follow the same general pattern. These years were very typical in the housing market and their lines on the graph show normal, seasonal trends.
  • Starting in 2020, the data broke from the normal trend. The big drop down in 2020 (the orange line) signals when the pandemic hit and many sellers paused their plans to move. 2021 (the green line) and 2022 (the red line) follow the normal trend a bit more, but still are abnormal in their own ways.
  • This year (the black line) is truly unique. The steep drop off in new listings that usually occurs this time of year hasn’t happened. If 2023 followed the norm, the line representing this year would look more like the dotted black line. Instead, what’s happening is the number of new listings is stabilizing. And, there are even more new listings coming to the market this year compared to the same time last year.

What Does This Mean for You?

  • For buyers, new listings stabilizing is a positive sign. It means you have a more steady stream of options coming onto the market and more choices for your next home than you would have at the same time last year. This opens up possibilities and allows you to explore a variety of homes that suit your needs.
  • For sellers, while new listings are breaking seasonal norms, inventory is still well below where it was before the pandemic. If you look again at the graph, you’ll see the black line for this year is still lower than normal, meaning inventory isn’t going up dramatically and prices aren’t heading for a crash. And with less competition from other sellers than you’d see in a more typical year, your house has a better chance to be in the spotlight and attract eager buyers.

Bottom Line

Whether you’re on the hunt for your next home or thinking of selling, now might just be the perfect time to make your move. If you have questions or concerns about the availability of homes in your local area, connect with a real estate agent.

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Buying Tips

Why You’ll Want a Home Inspection

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Some Highlights

  • Once your offer is accepted, an inspector will assess the condition of the house, including things like the roof, foundation, plumbing, and more.
  • That information is incredibly important and paves the way for you to re-negotiate with the seller, as needed. So, you don’t want to skip this step.
  • An inspection is your chance to avoid costly headaches and get peace of mind. Connect with an agent to talk about other ways to make your offer stand out.

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Affordability

The 20% Down Payment Myth, Debunked

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Saving up to buy a home can feel a little intimidating, especially right now. And for many first-time buyers, the idea that you have to put 20% down can feel like a major roadblock.

But that’s actually a common misconception. Here’s the truth.

Do You Really Have To Put 20% Down When You Buy a Home?

Unless your specific loan type or lender requires it, odds are you won’t have to put 20% down. There are loan options out there designed to help first-time buyers like you get in the door with a much smaller down payment.

For example, FHA loans offer down payments as low as 3.5%, while VA and USDA loans have no down payment requirements for qualified applicants, like Veterans. So, while putting down more money does have its benefits, it’s not essential. As The Mortgage Reports says:

“. . . many homebuyers are able to secure a home with as little as 3% or even no down payment at all . . . the 20 percent down rule is really a myth.

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the median down payment is a lot lower for first-time homebuyers at just 9% (see chart below):

The takeaway? You may not need to save as much as you originally thought.  

And the best part is, there are also a lot of programs out there designed to give your down payment savings a boost. And chances are, you’re not even aware they’re an option.

Why You Should Look into Down Payment Assistance Programs

Believe it or not, almost 80% of first-time homebuyers qualify for down payment assistance (DPA), but only 13% actually use it (see chart below):

a blue and orange pie chartThat’s a lot of missed opportunity. These programs aren’t small-scale help, either. Some offer thousands of dollars that can go directly toward your down payment. As Rob Chrane, Founder and CEO of Down Payment Resource, shares:

Our data shows the average DPA benefit is roughly $17,000. That can be a nice jump-start for saving for a down payment and other costs of homeownership.”

Imagine how much further your homebuying savings would go if you were able to qualify for $17,000 worth of help. In some cases, you may even be able to stack multiple programs at once, giving what you’ve saved an even bigger lift. These are the type of benefits you don’t want to leave on the table. 

Bottom Line

Saving up for your first home can feel like a lot, especially if you’re still thinking you have to put 20% down. The truth is that’s a common myth. Many loan options require much less, and there are even programs out there designed to boost your savings too.

To learn more about what’s available and if you’d qualify for any down payment assistance programs, talk to a trusted lender.

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Economy

What an Economic Slowdown Could Mean for the Housing Market

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Talk about the economy is all over the news, and the odds of a recession are rising this year. That’s leaving a lot of people wondering what it means for the value of their home – and their buying power.

Let’s take a look at some historical data to show what’s happened in the housing market during each recession, going all the way back to the 1980s. The facts may surprise you.

A Recession Doesn’t Mean Home Prices Will Fall

Many people think that if a recession hits, home prices will fall like they did in 2008. But that was an exception, not the rule. It was the only time the market saw such a steep drop in prices. And it hasn’t happened since, mainly because inventory is still so low overall. Even in markets where the number of homes for sale has started to rise this year, inventory is still far below the oversupply of homes that led up to the housing crash.

In fact, according to data from Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), in four of the last six recessions, home prices actually went up (see graph below)

a graph of a graph showing the price of falling pricesSo, don’t assume a recession will lead to a significant drop in home values. The data simply doesn’t support that idea. Instead, home prices usually follow whatever trajectory they’re already on. And right now, nationally, home prices are still rising, just at a more normal pace.

Mortgage Rates Typically Decline During Recessions

While home prices tend to stay on their current path, mortgage rates usually drop during economic slowdowns. Again, looking at data from the last six recessions, mortgage rates fell each time (see graph below):

a graph of a graph showing the rise of mortgage ratesSo, a recession means rates could decline. And while that would help with your buying power, don’t expect the return of a 3% rate.

Bottom Line

The answer to the recession question is still unknown, but the odds have gone up. However, that doesn’t mean you have to worry about what it means for the housing market – or the value of your home. Historical data tells us what usually happens.

If you’re wondering how the current economy is impacting your local market, connect with an agent.

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The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, Landshark Mark, LLC and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.