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Home Prices

What You Really Need To Know About Home Price Headlines

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According to recent data from Fannie Mae, almost 1 in 4 people still think home prices are going to come down. If you’re one of the people worried about that, here’s what you need to know.

A lot of that fear is probably coming from what you’re hearing in the media or reading online. But here’s the thing to remember. Negative news sells. That means, you may not be getting the full picture. You may only be getting the clickbait version. As Jay Thompson, a Real Estate Industry Consultant, explains:

“Housing market headlines are everywhere. Many are quite sensational, ending with exclamation points or predicting impending doom for the industry. Clickbait, the sensationalizing of headlines and content, has been an issue since the dawn of the internet, and housing news is not immune to it.”

Here’s a look at the data to set the record straight.

Home Prices Rose the Majority of the Past Year

Case-Shiller releases a report each month on the percent of monthly home price changes. If you look at their data from January 2023 through the latest numbers available, here’s what you’d see:

 a graph of green bars

What do you notice when you look at this graph? It depends on what color you’re more drawn to. If you look at the green, you’ll see home prices rose for the majority of the past year.

But, if you’re drawn to the red, you may only focus on the two slight declines. This is what a lot of media coverage does. Since negative news sells, drawing attention to these slight dips happens often. But that loses sight of the bigger picture. 

Here’s what this data really says. There’s a lot more green in that graph than red. And even for the two red bars, they’re so slight, they’re practically flat. If you look at the year as a whole, home prices still rose overall.

It’s perfectly normal in the housing market for home price growth to slow down in the winter. That’s because fewer people move during the holidays and at the start of the year, so there’s not as much upward pressure on home prices during that time. That’s why, even the green bars toward the end of the year show smaller price gains.

The overarching story is that prices went up last year, not down.

To sum all that up, the source for that data in the graph above, Case Shiller, explains it like this:

Month-over-month numbers were relatively flat, . . . However, the annual growth was more significant for both indices, rising 7.4 percent and 6.6 percent, respectively.”

If one of the expert organizations tracking home price trends says the very slight dips are nothing to worry about, why be concerned? Even Case-Shiller is drawing your attention to how those were virtually flat and how home prices actually grew over the year.

Bottom Line

Don’t let what you’re hearing about home prices confuse you. The data shows that, as a whole, home prices rose over the past year. If you have questions about what’s happening with home prices in your local area, connect with a trusted real estate professional.

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Economy

Q&A: How Do Presidential Elections Impact the Housing Market?

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a house with a question and answer

Some Highlights

  • Even if you’re not looking to move right away, you may have questions about how the election will impact the housing market.
  • When we look at historical trends, combined with what’s happening right now, we can find your answers. Based on historical data, mortgage rates decrease in the months before and home prices and sales increase the year after the election.
  • The facts show Presidential elections only have a small and temporary impact on the housing market.

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Economy

Why Home Sales Bounce Back After Presidential Elections

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With the 2024 Presidential election fast approaching, you might be wondering what impact, if any, it’s having on the housing market. Let’s break it down.

Election Years Bring a Temporary Slowdown

In any given year, home sales slow down slightly in the fall. It’s a typical, seasonal trend. However, according to data from BTIG, in election years there’s usually a slightly larger dip in home sales in the month leading up to Election Day (see graph below):

a graph of a person with an orange squareWhy? Uncertainty. Many consumers hold off on making major decisions or purchases while they wait to see how the election will play out. It’s a pattern that’s shown up time and time again, and it’s particularly apparent for buyers and sellers in the housing market.

This year is no different. A recent survey from Redfin found that 23% of potential first-time homebuyers said they’re waiting until after the election to buy. That’s nearly a quarter of first-time buyers hitting the pause button, likely due to the same feelings of uncertainty.

Home Sales Bounce Back After the Election

The good news is these delayed sales aren’t lost forever—they’re just postponed. History shows sales tend to rebound after the election is over. In fact, home sales have actually increased 82% of the time in the year after the election (see chart below):

a blue and white chart with numbersThat’s because once the election dust settles, buyers and sellers have a sense of what’s ahead and generally feel more confident moving forward with their decisions. And that leads to a boost in home sales.

What To Expect in 2025

If history is any indicator, that means more homes will sell next year. And based on the latest forecasts, that’s exactly what you should expect. As the graph below shows, the housing market is on pace to sell a total of 4.6 million homes this year, and projections are for 5.2 million total sales next year (see graph below):

a graph showing the sales of a companyAnd that aligns with the typical pattern of post-election rebounds.

So, while it might feel like the market is slowing down right now, it’s more of a temporary dip rather than a long-term trend. As has been the case before, once the election uncertainty passes, buyers and sellers will return to the market.

Bottom Line

It’s important to remember that while election years often bring a short-term slowdown in the housing market, the pause is usually temporary. Those sales are not lost. Data shows home sales typically increase the year after a Presidential election, and current forecasts indicate 2025 will be no different. If you’re waiting for a clearer picture before making a move, just know that the market is expected to pick up speed in the months ahead.

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Affordability

The Benefits of Using Your Equity To Make a Bigger Down Payment

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Did you know? Homeowners are often able to put more money down when they buy their next home. That’s because, once they sell, they can use the equity they have in their current house toward their next down payment. And it’s why as home equity reaches a new height, the median down payment has too.

According to the latest data from Redfin, the typical down payment for U.S. homebuyers is $67,500—that’s nearly 15% more than last year, and the highest on record (see graph below):

a graph showing a green lineHere’s why equity makes this possible. Over the past five years, home prices have increased significantly, which has led to a big boost in equity for current homeowners like you. When you sell your house and move, you can take the equity that gives you and apply it toward a larger down payment on your new home. That’s a major opportunity, especially if you’ve had concerns about affordability.

Now, it’s important to remember you don’t have to make a big down payment to buy your next home—there are loan programs that let you put as little as 3%, or even 0% down. But there’s a reason so many current homeowners are opting to put more money down. That’s because it comes with some serious perks.

Why a Bigger Down Payment Can Be a Game Changer

1. You’ll Borrow Less and Save More in the Long Run

When you use your equity to make a bigger down payment on your next home, you won’t have to borrow as much. And the less you borrow, the less you’ll pay in interest over the life of your loan. That’s money saved in your pocket for years to come.

2. You Could Get a Lower Mortgage Rate

Providing a larger down payment shows your lender you’re more financially stable and not a large credit risk. The more confident your lender is in your credit score and your ability to pay your loan, the lower the mortgage rate they’ll likely be willing to give you. And that amplifies your savings.

3. Your Monthly Payments Could Be Lower

A bigger down payment doesn’t just help you reduce how much you have to borrow—it also means your monthly mortgage payment may be smaller. That can make your next home more affordable and give you a bit more breathing room in your budget.

4. You Can Skip Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI)

If you can put down 20% or more, you can avoid Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI), which is an added cost many buyers have to pay if their down payment isn’t as large. Freddie Mac explains it like this:

“For homeowners who put less than 20% down, Private Mortgage Insurance or PMI is an added insurance policy for homeowners that protects the lender if you are unable to pay your mortgage. It is not the same thing as homeowner’s insurance. It’s a monthly fee, rolled into your mortgage payment, that’s required if you make a down payment less than 20%.”

Avoiding PMI means you’ll have one less expense to worry about each month, which is a nice bonus.

Bottom Line

Down payments are at a record high, largely because recent equity gains are putting homeowners in a position to put more money down.

If you’re thinking about selling your current house and moving, reach out to a trusted real estate agent. They’ll help you figure out how much home equity you have right now, and how it can boost your buying power in today’s market.

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The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.