If you paused your plans to move because of high rates or prices, it may finally be time to take a second look at your numbers. Affordability is improving in 39 of the top 50 markets, according to First American. And that’s the 5th straight month where buying a home has started to get a little bit easier.

Let’s break this down into real dollars, so you can see the difference this could make for you (and your move).

Monthly Payments Are Coming Down

One of the clearest signs of this shift is in monthly payments. The latest data from Redfin shows mortgage payments on a median-priced home are now $283 lower than they were just a few months ago (see graph below):

This kind of monthly savings adds up fast, and totals nearly $3,400 over the course of a year.

While this isn’t enough to completely change the affordability game overnight, think about it this way. When you’re putting together a homebuying budget, a few hundred dollars could be the difference between being comfortable buying and feeling like money’s a bit tight.

And from a home-search perspective, it could even be enough to change the price point you can look at. According to Redfin:

“A borrower with a $3,000 monthly budget can now afford a $468,000 home, about $22,000 more than in June.”

And that’s a big deal if you haven’t found a home you love in your price range yet. It gives you a little more flexibility to find the one that’s right for you.

Either way, that’s a big win.

What’s Behind the Shift?

Two key factors are working in your favor right now:

• Mortgage rates have eased from their high earlier this year
• Home price growth is slowing in many markets

Both of those things help your bottom line and give you a bit of breathing room if you’re buying a home. As Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research at ICE Mortgage Technology, says:

“The recent pullback in rates has created a tailwind for both homebuyers and existing borrowers. We’re seeing affordability at a 2.5-year high . . .”

Whether you’re a first-time homebuyer or someone looking to move-up into a bigger house, the shifts happening this year could make your move possible. Connect with a trusted agent or lender to see what your monthly payment would look like at today’s rates.

For you, the savings could be the difference between “not yet” and “let’s go.”

Bottom Line

Affordability is improving in many markets. And that resets the math on your move.

If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines, this is your cue to start looking again. Connect with a local agent or trusted lender to run the numbers together so you can get a rough estimate of how much more buying power you may have than you did just a few months ago.

There’s a trend taking hold in real estate right now: more buyers are choosing newly built homes. And it’s not just about getting the latest technology or modern floorplans. It’s because they may be able to get a better deal.

Builders are offering serious incentives today, and people are jumping on them. In fact, new home sales just hit their highest level in over two years (see graph below):

Why Builders Are Throwing in Perks

There are more newly built homes for sale right now than there have been in years. And as a buyer, that can help you in two big ways. It gives you more options to choose from on the market, and it motivates builders to sell their inventory before they build more.

That’s exactly why more buyers are scoring incentives like these:

• Mortgage rate buydowns to shrink your monthly payment
• Price cuts that make homeownership more attainable
• Help with closing costs and even upgrades in some communities

The best part is, a lot of builders are offering these perks right now. According to Zonda, nearly 6 out of 10 new home communities are doing incentives on to-be-built homes. And over 75% are doing the same for quick move-ins, which are homes that are already built and ready to move into. As real estate analyst Nick Gerli explains:

“. . . builders are adjusting to the realities of the current housing market. They’ve cut prices 13 percent from peak, and are giving generous mortgage rate buydowns on top of that.”

The big takeaway is: builders are motivated to sell. So, you could snag a lower price and maybe even a lower mortgage rate if you buy new. If you’ve been feeling priced out, these offers might be your way back in.

You Have More Brand-New Options Than Normal

Since there are more new homes on the market than usual, that gives you more options than you’ve had in years. Whether you’re looking for something turnkey or want to personalize a build, odds are there’s more available near you than you may realize.

Even though the number of new homes for sale is up throughout the country, there are pockets where you have an even better chance to find a better price. According to Census data, here’s a high-level look at which parts of the country are seeing the biggest boost in newly built homes (see graph below):

Both the South and West have more new homes available, so you may find builders are even more willing to negotiate in these regions.

Just know that this opportunity won’t last forever. Recent data shows builders are slowing down their production efforts. And a lot of that is to avoid having too many homes for sale. As Robert Dietz, Chief Economist at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), explains:

“The slowdown in single-family home building has narrowed the home building pipeline. There are currently 621,000 single-family homes under construction, down 1% in July and 3.7% lower than a year ago. This is the lowest level since early 2021 as builders pull back on supply.”

Moving forward, the number of new options may start to shrink as builders focus more on selling what’s already built before they add more. So, the best time in years to buy a new home may actually be right now.

Bottom Line

With builders cutting prices and maybe even helping you score a lower monthly payment, that’s not something to overlook.

If you want to see how active builders are in your target area and what they’re offering, here’s your power move: before you even begin looking, connect with your own agent.

That way, you have someone to help you compare incentives from multiple builders and negotiate on your behalf, making sure you get the best deal possible.

You want mortgage rates to fall – and they’ve started to. But is it going to last? And how low will they go?

Experts say there’s room for rates to come down even more over the next year. And one of the leading indicators to watch is the 10-year treasury yield. Here’s why.

The Link Between Mortgage Rates and the 10-Year Treasury Yield

For over 50 years, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has closely followed the movement of the 10-year treasury yield, which is a widely watched benchmark for long-term interest rates (see graph below):

When the treasury yield climbs, mortgage rates tend to follow. And when the yield falls, mortgage rates typically come down.

It’s been a predictable pattern for over 50 years. So predictable, that there’s a number experts consider normal for the gap between the two. It’s known as the spread, and it usually averages about 1.76 percentage points, or what you sometimes hear as 176 basis points.

The Spread Is Shrinking

Over the past couple of years, though, that spread has been much wider than normal. Why? Think of the spread as a measure of fear in the market. When there’s lingering uncertainty in the economy, the gap widens beyond its usual norm. That’s one of the reasons why mortgage rates have been unusually high over the past few years.

But here’s a sign for optimism. Even though there’s still some lingering uncertainty related to the economy, that spread is starting to shrink as the path forward is becoming clearer (see graph below):

And that opens the door for mortgage rates to come down even more. As a recent article from Redfin explains:

“A lower mortgage spread equals lower mortgage rates. If the spread continues to decline, mortgage rates could fall more than they already have.”

The 10-Year Treasury Yield Is Expected To Decline

It’s not just the spread, though. The 10-year treasury yield itself is also forecast to come down in the months ahead. So, when you combine a lower yield with a narrowing spread, you have two key forces potentially pushing mortgage rates down going into next year.

This long-term relationship is a big reason why you see experts currently projecting mortgage rates will ease, with a fringe possibility they’ll hit the upper 5s toward the end of next year.

Here’s how it works. Take the 10-year treasury yield, which is sitting at about 4.09% at the time this article is being written, and then add the average spread of 1.76%. From there, you’d expect mortgage rates to be around 5.85% (see graph below):

But remember, all of that can change as the economy shifts. And know for certain that there will be ups and downs along the way. 

How these dynamics play out will depend on where the economy, the job market, inflation, and more go from here. But the 2026 outlook is currently expected to be a gradual mortgage rate decline. And as of now, things are starting to move in the right direction.

Bottom Line

Keeping up with all of these shifts can feel overwhelming. That’s why having an experienced agent or lender on your side matters. They’ll do the heavy lifting for you.

If you want real-time updates on mortgage rates, reach out to a trusted agent or lender who can keep you in the loop and help you plan your next move.