It’s one of the biggest hold ups some buyers have right now: “What if I buy, and home prices go down?”

With everything in the news, that concern makes some sense. No one wants to make a big financial decision at the wrong time. But here’s what’s important to know. You don’t want to get hung up on the few places seeing slight declines right now.

When you zoom out and look at the full picture, home prices usually rise over time.

What the Data Really Shows

Take a look at the visual below. It uses data from Case-Shiller and Bilello to show how home prices have changed year by year going all the way back to the 1950s.

Here’s the key takeaway.

Outside of the housing crash, home prices have either held steady or increased in just about every year for decades (see visual below):

That’s a remarkably consistent track record. And it shows something a lot of headlines miss.

While short-term shifts can happen, it’s the long-term gains that really matter.

Why Prices Tend To Rise Over Time

There are a few core reasons prices usually go up each year:

• There are always people who need to move. People need a place to live, and that demand will never fully go away. It may ebb and flow, but someone will always have to move as big changes happen in their life. So, homes stay in demand.
• There still aren’t enough homes for sale. While the number of homes for sale has grown, nationally there’s still an undersupply based on how many people want a home. That keeps upward pressure on prices.
• Inflation has an impact. Over time, the cost of goods (including homes) naturally increases. That pushes home values higher.

What That Means for You as a Buyer

It’s easy to get caught up in what might happen with home prices next month or next year, especially if you’re a first-time buyer and you’re feeling a little anxious about making such a big financial commitment. But the big picture is clear. Prices usually rise.

That doesn’t mean prices will go up every single year in every market. Real estate is local, and there can be short-term ups and downs. We’re seeing that in some places right now. You can even see it in the few annual dips in the visual above.

But historically, the declines have been temporary.

That’s why it’s generally recommended to buy a home only if you plan to stay for a while – typically at least five years. That’s normally enough time to see your house grow in value. And, it’s enough so you can ride out any short-term changes in the market.

Because when you can do that, something powerful happens. Those rising home values grow your net worth, and by extension, help you build wealth.

The right decision isn’t about timing the market perfectly. It’s about making a move that works for your life and staying in it long enough to benefit from the bigger trend.

Bottom Line

Home prices have a long track record of going up over time. And that’s why buying a home is generally considered a safe long-term investment.

That certainly doesn’t mean you have to buy now. You should only move when it makes sense, and you plan to live there for a while.

But if you’re interested, let this reassure you. If you want to talk about what home prices are doing in our market, your goals, or your timelines, reach out to a local agent.

Most sellers come into the market with one number in mind. And it’s often the one that costs them the most. That’s their asking price. 

A survey from Realtor.com shows about 8 in 10 (80%) of sellers expect to sell at or above their asking price today. But here’s where things get interesting.

In reality, only about 4 out of every 10 (roughly 40%) actually do.

That’s a big gap. And it’s where a lot of sellers get caught off guard. So, why the disconnect? And how can you set yourself up to be one of the 4 in 10 that get top dollar? 

Let’s break it down.

What Should You Really Expect To Get for Your House? 

That 40% may sound low at first, but it’s not.

If you look back to the last typical year for the housing market (2019), what we’re really seeing is a return to what’s normal (see chart below). If anything, slightly more homeowners are able to sell above list price today compared to 2019:

It only feels low because the past few years were anything but typical. Between 2020 and mid-2022, buyer demand was sky-high and the number of homes for sale was at record lows. Almost everything sold over asking. 

Now, the market has shifted.

There are more homes for sale. Buyers have more options. And that means they’re more selective about how they spend their money.

In other words, the rules have changed – and pricing like it’s still 2021 is where sellers run into trouble. You have to meet the market where it is if you really want to cash in big.

What Happens When a Home Is Priced Too High

Here’s the reality. It’s easy to think pricing high gives you room to negotiate. But it usually does the opposite.

When your home is priced above what buyers expect, in this market, they don’t negotiate. They move on.

Because buyers notice price first. And if your home doesn’t line up with similar options in your area, it may not even get a showing. And that’s when things start to snowball:

• A high price gets less interest from buyers.

• Less interest means fewer offers.

• And fewer offers usually means more time on the market.

Take a look at this table from the Indiana Association of Realtors. While this data is from one state, the general trend is going to hold true across many markets in the country. It shows that homes listed at or under market value sell fast. But homes priced high? They linger. And that delay comes at a very real cost.

The Price Cut Trap (And How To Avoid It)

When a home sits that long without offers, a lot of sellers will do a price reduction. According to Realtor.com, 16.7% of sellers are going that route today.

But here’s the real problem. Even a price cut doesn’t guarantee a sale.

In fact, some buyers will see a reduction as a sign something’s wrong with the house – even when nothing is.

That’s why data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows the longer a home sits, the bigger that price cut tends to be to attract buyers back:

So, what starts as a strategy to “leave room” for negotiate can end up costing you more in the long run.

Why Pricing Right from Day One Matters

Even though listing at or even just shy of market value may sound counter intuitive if you’re looking to get as much money for your house as possible, a lot of the time it really is the best strategy.

Because the goal isn’t just to list your house to see what price sticks. It’s to price it in a way that creates demand from day one.

NAR puts it best:

“While some sellers are pricing their homes higher than ever, a more ‘goldilocks’ frame of mind is a better approach to avoid price cuts and lingering time on the market.”

In other words, there’s a sweet spot. Too high, and buyers disappear. Too low, and they question the value.

But right in the middle? That’s where the magic happens.

And that’s where the right agent comes in.

They help you understand what buyers are actually paying right now, how your home compares, and how to price it so it stands out immediately. And in today’s market, that strategy is the difference between:

1. Listing high, watching it sit, and selling for less later.

2. Or, pricing it right, creating competition, and putting yourself in a position to win from the start.

Bottom Line

A lot of homeowners think they can list high now and negotiate later, but that’s a mistake that costs them. And it’s the reason only 4 out of every 10 sellers are getting their asking price or more.

If you want to be in that group, it starts with getting the price right from day one.

Connect with a local agent to make sure you are.

You may have heard April 12-18 was the “best week” to list your house. That’s based on a report from Realtor.com. But now that it’s passed, you may be wondering if you missed your moment.

Here’s the good news – you didn’t. 

Because the reality is, there isn’t just one perfect week to sell your house this Spring. There’s a window. And right now, you’re still in it.

Your Window To Sell Is Still Wide Open

Here’s why. Different organizations run studies like this every year. And they don’t always land on the exact same week. That’s okay. It’s because they’re using different research methods and even different definitions of what “best” means.

But the fact that the results vary points to a larger trend. While there may be sweet spots, the entire Spring season gives sellers an opportunity to get some of the best conditions (and best sales prices) of the year.

And it’s definitely not too late to jump in.

Why Listing in Late May Is the Perfect Play

According to Zillow, the best time to list your house this year is the last 2 weeks of May. And that’s approaching fast.

Based on their analysis, this is the ideal time to do it if you want to make top dollar. Because, in this 2-week window, homes sell for more. Sometimes, quite a bit more.

Depending on where you are and the price point in your area, some homeowners may even net tens of thousands of dollars extra in this sweet spot. As Zillow explains:

“Why late spring? Buyer demand typically peaks before Memorial Day. Families want to move during the summer and settle in before the new school year. More buyers shopping at once can spark competition and lift prices.”

And they’re not the only ones saying listing in May could be the key to selling for more. ATTOM Data analyzed almost 52 million home sales over the past 10 years and found sellers in May are achieving some of the highest returns.

That means the ideal window this year is very much still open.

What This Means for You 

If your goal is to sell for the strongest possible price, this is where timing and strategy come together. And you want to be sure you’re ready to make the most of it.

So, what should you be doing right now?

When prepping for a fast-moving window like this, you don’t want to waste time or money on the wrong prep work. And your agent is your go-to to make sure you’re focusing on the right things.

They’ll be able to tell you if the “best week” is slightly different in your market. And what quick repairs or updates can help you get a higher price, without taking a ton of time or effort.

Here’s a quick example of things an agent may recommend based on information from Redfin:

At the end of the day, when your prep time’s short, doing the right things matters more than doing more things.

Bottom Line

Zillow says the best time to list your house is just around the corner. Are you ready to make the most of it?

If you want to take advantage of this Spring sweet spot and get top dollar for your house, talk to a local agent about what you need to do now to get ready to hit the market.