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The Truth About Where Home Prices Are Heading

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There are plenty of headlines these days calling for a housing market crash. But the truth is, they’re not telling the full story. Here’s what’s actually happening, and what the experts project for home prices over the next 5 years. And spoiler alert – it’s not a crash.

Yes, in some local markets, prices are flattening or even dipping slightly this year as more homes hit the market. That’s normal with rising inventory. But the bigger picture is what really matters, and it’s far less dramatic than what the doom-and-gloom headlines suggest. Here’s why.

Over 100 leading housing market experts were surveyed in the latest Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae. Their collective forecast shows prices are projected to keep rising over the next 5 years, just at a slower, healthier pace than what we’ve seen more recently. And that kind of steady, sustainable growth should be one factor to help ease your fears about the years ahead (see graph below):

a graph with green barsAnd if you take a look at how the various experts responded within the survey, they fall into three main categories: those that were most optimistic about the forecast, most pessimistic, and the overall average outlook.

Here’s what the breakdown shows:

  • The average projection is about 3.3% price growth per year, through 2029.
  • The optimists see growth closer to 5.0% per year.
  • The pessimists still forecast about 1.3% growth per year.

Do they all agree on the same number? Of course not. But here’s the key takeaway: not one expert group is calling for a major national decline or a crash. Instead, they expect home prices to rise at a steady, more sustainable pace.

That’s much healthier for the market – and for you. Yes, some areas may see prices hold relatively flat or dip a bit in the short term, especially where inventory is on the rise. Others may appreciate faster than the national average because there are still fewer homes for sale than there are buyers trying to purchase them. But overall, more moderate price growth is cooling the rapid spikes we saw during the frenzy of the past few years.

And remember, even the most conservative experts still project prices will rise over the course of the next 5 years. That’s also because foreclosures are low, lending standards are in check, and homeowners have near record equity to boost the stability of the market. Together, those factors help prevent a wave of forced sales, like the kind that could drag prices down. So, if you’re waiting for a significant crash before you buy, you might be waiting quite a long time.

Bottom Line

If you’ve been on the fence about your plans, now’s the time to get clarity. The market isn’t heading for a crash – it’s on track for steady, slow, long-term growth overall, with some regional ups and downs along the way.

Want to know what that means for your neighborhood? Because national trends set the tone, but what really matters is what’s happening in your zip code. Connect with a real estate agent to have a quick conversation so you can see exactly what the local data means for you. 

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Buying Tips

What Credit Score Do You Really Need To Buy a Home?

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According to Fannie Mae, 90% of buyers don’t actually know what credit score lenders are looking for, or they overestimate the minimum needed.

Let that sink in. That means most homebuyers think they need better credit than they actually do – and maybe you’re one of them. And that could make you think buying a home is out of reach for you right now, even if that’s not necessarily true. So, let’s look at what the data really says about credit scores and homebuying.

There’s No One Magic Number

There’s no universal credit score you absolutely have to have when buying a home. And that means there’s more flexibility than most people realize. Check out this graph showing the median credit scores recent buyers had among different home loan types:

a graph of a credit scoreHere’s what’s important to realize. The numbers vary, and there’s no one-size-fits-all threshold. And that could open doors you thought were closed for you. The best way to learn more is to talk to a trusted lender. As FICO explains:

“While many lenders use credit scores like FICO Scores to help them make lending decisions, each lender has its own strategy, including the level of risk it finds acceptable. There is no single ‘cutoff score’ used by all lenders, and there are many additional factors that lenders may use . . .”

Why Your Score Still Matters

When you buy a home, lenders use your credit score to get a sense of how reliable you are with money. They want to see if you typically make payments on time, pay back debts, and more.

Your score can impact which loan types you may qualify for, the terms on those loans, and even your mortgage rate. And since mortgage rates are a big factor in how much house you’ll be able to afford, that may make your score feel even more important today. As Bankrate says:

“Your credit score is one of the most important factors lenders consider when you apply for a mortgage. Not just to qualify for the loan itself, but for the conditions: Typically, the higher your score, the lower the interest rates and better terms you’ll qualify for.”

That still doesn’t mean your credit has to be perfect. Even if your credit score isn’t as high as you’d like, you may still be able to get a home loan.

Want To Boost Your Score? Start Here

And if you talk to a lender and decide you want to improve your score (and hopefully your loan type and terms too), here are a few smart moves according to the Federal Reserve Board:

  • Pay Your Bills on Time: This is a big one. Lenders want to see you can reliably pay your bills on time. This includes everything from credit cards to utilities and cell phone bills. Consistent, on-time payments show you’re a responsible borrower.
  • Pay Down Your Debt: When it comes to your available credit amount, the less you’re using, the better. Focus on keeping this number as low as possible. That makes you a lower-risk borrower in the eyes of lenders – making them more likely to approve a loan with better terms.
  • Review Your Credit Report: Get copies of your credit report and work to correct any errors you find. This can help improve your score.
  • Don’t Open New Accounts: While it might be tempting to open more credit cards to build your score, it’s best to hold off. Too many new credit applications can lead to hard inquiries on your report, which can temporarily lower your score.

Bottom Line

Your credit score doesn’t have to be perfect to qualify for a home loan. But a better score can help you get better terms on your home loan. The best way to know where you stand and your options for a mortgage is to connect with a trusted lender.​

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For Buyers

Home Price Forecasts for the Second Half of 2025

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a screenshot of a phone

Some Highlights

  • With all the headlines circulating recently, you may be wondering what’s next for home prices? Here’s what the expert forecasts say.
  • Home prices are still forecast to rise nationally this year, just at a much slower pace. But price trends are going to vary by area.
  • To have a quick conversation about what’s happening in your local market, connect with a real estate agent.

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Agent Value

Today’s Tale of Two Housing Markets

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Depending on where you live, the housing market could feel red-hot or strangely quiet right now. The truth is, local markets are starting to move in different directions. In some places, buyers are calling the shots. In others, sellers still hold the power. It’s a tale of two markets.

What’s a Buyer’s Market vs. a Seller’s Market?

In a buyer’s market, there are more homes for sale and not as many buyers. That means homes sit longer, buyers have more negotiating power, and prices tend to soften as a result. It’s simple supply and demand.

On the flip side, a seller’s market happens when there aren’t enough homes available for the number of people looking to buy them. Because buyers have to compete with each other to get the house they want, that leads to faster sales, multiple offers, and rising prices.

Right now, both of these scenarios are playing out, depending on where you are. So, how do you know what kind of market you’re in? Lean on a local real estate agent. They’ll explain what’s really happening in your area based on these key drivers.

The Number of Buyers and Sellers by Region

One of the biggest factors impacting each market is the number of active buyers and sellers. According to Redfin, here’s what that looks like by region (see graph below):

a graph of salesToday, the Northeast and Midwest are more likely to be seller’s markets. Buyers still outnumber sellers there, and that keeps things tilted in favor of homeowners. Generally speaking, homes are selling faster and prices are rising in those areas.

But the South and West are leaning more toward buyer’s markets. There are more sellers than buyers, which means more listings to choose from and less competition among buyers.

That’s a major shift from a few years ago when sellers had the advantage almost everywhere. Today, your local conditions matter more than ever – and they can vary even from one neighborhood to the next.

Price Trends Mirror the Buyer/Seller Divide

When inventory and buyer activity shift, so do prices. In places where demand still outpaces supply, like much of the Northeast and Midwest, prices are continuing to climb.

But in parts of the South and West where inventory is up and demand has cooled, prices are softening. And that’s a plus for buyers looking to negotiate in those areas.

Here’s the latest price data from ResiClub to show how this divide is shaking out across the top metros in the country (see graph below):

a graph of different colored linesThis is why it’s the tale of two markets. Roughly half of the top 50 metros are up, and half are relatively flat or down.

That said, don’t panic if you own a home in a market where prices are dipping. Most homeowners have built up significant equity over the past few years, and chances are you have too. So, you’re likely still come out way ahead when you sell.

Why Local Insights Matter

Even in regions that lean more buyer-friendly right now, there will be cities, towns, and even neighborhoods that don’t follow the regional trends. That’s why an agent’s local market expertise is so important. They can help you understand what’s happening all the way down to a zip code level, including:

  • Whether your area is favoring buyers or sellers
  • How to set the right price or craft an offer strategy based on local trends
  • The best way to make your move happen, no matter what’s happening in the market

Bottom Line

In a market where conditions vary this much from place to place, success starts with understanding every aspect of your local area. Connect with a local agent so you’ve got an expert in your corner who knows exactly how to guide you through your market, wherever you are.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.