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Latest Unemployment Report: Great News…for the Most Part

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their latest Employment Situation Summary last Thursday, and it again beat analysts’ expectations in a big way. The consensus was for 3,074,000 jobs to be added in June. The report revealed that 4,800,000 jobs were added. The unemployment rate fell to 11.1% from 13.3% last month. Again, excellent news as the unemployment rate fell for the second consecutive month. However, there’s still a long way to go before the economy fully recovers as 17.8 million Americans remain unemployed.

Here are two interesting insights on the report:

What about a supposed misclassification?

The BLS addressed this at length in a blog post last week, and concluded by saying:

“Regardless of the assumptions we might make about misclassification, the trend in the unemployment rate over the period in question is the same; the rate increased in March & April and eased in May.”

They specifically noted the issue in the latest report by explaining that if they adjusted the rate for the potential miscalculation, it would increase from 11.1% to 12.1% (which is lower than the adjusted rate of 16.4% last month). They went on to say:

“However, this represents the upper bound of our estimate of misclassification and probably overstates the size of the misclassification error.”

Does the shutdown of parts of the economy skew the unemployment numbers?

Because the uniqueness of 2020 impacts the employment situation in so many ways, each jobs report is now examined with a microscope to make sure the headlines generated by the report accurately convey what’s happening in the job market.

One such analysis is done by Jed Kolko, Chief Economist at Indeed. He believes the extraordinary number of people in the “temporary” unemployed category confuses the broader issue of how many people have permanently lost their job. He adjusts for this when calculating his “core unemployment rate” (which subtracts temporary layoffs and adds unemployed who didn’t search for a job recently).

The bad news is that his analysis reveals that the number of permanently unemployed is still rising (from 4.6% in April to 5.9% last month). The good news, however, is when you use his methodology to look back at the Great Recession, today’s “core unemployment rate” is significantly lower (5.9% versus 10.5% in April 2010).

Bottom Line

Last week’s jobs report was much better than most expected. However, we should remain cautious in our optimism. As the Wall Street Journal explained in their analysis of the jobs report:

“U.S. job growth surged last month, underscoring the economy’s capacity for a quick rebound if businesses continue to reopen and consumers regain confidence. A recent coronavirus spike, however, could undermine trends captured in the latest jobs report.”

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Affordability

Sellers Are Cutting Prices To Meet Buyers Where They’re At

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You’re scrolling through listings on your phone and everything looks good until you see the price (or the estimated monthly payment). Then you close the app. 

Because even if you love the house, the numbers feel impossible. But here’s the thing.

Nationally, there are more homes sitting on the market than there are people out there looking. And when sellers need buyers more than buyers need sellers, that shows up in the price.

Lower asking prices. More price cuts. And homes priced for what buyers can actually afford – not what sellers hope someone might pay.

And it may be enough to make buying more doable than you’d think. 

4 Out of 10 Sellers Are Cutting Their Price 

One of the clearest signs sellers are adjusting? Price cuts. HousingWire Data shows more than 40% of sellers are dropping this price.

That’s just slightly behind the volume we saw last year (see graph below):

a graph of a price reduction

That’s more than 4 out of every 10 homes listed. Think about what that means. That’s thousands of sellers deciding they’d rather lower their asking price than keep waiting for someone willing to stretch their budget. 

They know that to sell, they have to be willing to do some give and take. And when no buyers are biting, they’re pulling their biggest lever to draw buyers back in – their price. As Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, explains:

“This is a market where people are adjusting and showing up rather than giving up. Sellers are meeting the market with more realistic asking prices, which is helping deals get done.”

This July Saw the Lowest Median List Price for Any July in Five Years

What about the other 6 in 10 sellers? A lot of them started with a lower asking price to begin with rather than test the higher price and get crickets from buyers.

That may be why July 2026 had the lowest median list price of any July in the past five years, according to Realtor.com (see the white line in the graph below):

a graph of sales and prices

Now, that doesn’t mean home values are falling or that everything’s suddenly a steal. Prices are still above where they were before the pandemic. But what it does mean is this.

Sellers no longer banking on bidding wars or expecting buyers to pay whatever they ask. Instead, many are listing at prices that better reflect today’s market from the very beginning. 

And honestly, whether they’re pricing competitively from day one or adjusting after a few weeks on the market, the message for you is the same:

Sellers are more willing to meet you where you’re at.

Because in many markets throughout the country, you’re not fighting over a house anymore. Sellers are fighting over you. And that’s information you can use to get a better deal.

Yes, affordability can be a real challenge. And the monthly payment you take on definitely does matter. But if you’ve been assuming everything is out of budget, there may be more wiggle room than you think.

Bottom Line

Right now, sellers are flexible on the price in ways they weren’t before. Reach out to a local agent to take advantage of that flexibility.

You may be surprised by what’s available – and how willing today’s sellers are to work with buyers.

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For Buyers

Worried About a Housing Crash? The Numbers Tell a Calmer Story.

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A recent survey from Talker Research asked Americans to pick one word to describe how 2026 has felt so far. The winner? Stressful. And honestly, there’s been a lot going on.

So, it’s understandable if you’ve been putting off buying or selling a home until things settle down. But you may be waiting on something that’s already happened. While everything else has felt shaky, the housing market has become one of the steadiest things out there. Look at the data.

Home Prices Have Leveled Out

After years of fast increases, data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows home prices have been remarkably steady for the past 4 years (see graph below):

a graph of blue linesAnd experts say that’s what to expect going forward, too. As Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at Cotality, explains:

“In 2026, we expect home prices to remain broadly stable, with modest appreciation at a national level.”

No wild swings. Just slow, steady growth. That’s a healthy market. Of course, that pace can vary a bit depending on where you live. But nationally, steady growth like this makes it easier to plan your budget, whether you’re buying or selling.

The Supply of Homes for Sale Has Steadied

For years, the supply of homes for sale was a moving target. It dropped fast during the pandemic and has been climbing pretty reliably ever since. Now, that pace of growth has slowed down. According to Realtor.com, inventory today is very close to where it was this time last year (see graph below): 

a graph of blue linesThat’s helpful no matter which side you’re on. When the number of homes for sale isn’t changing much, you know what you’re walking into – how many options you’ll have as a buyer, and how much competition you’ll face as a seller.

Mortgage Rates Found Their Range

Yes, rates jumped dramatically back in 2022. But since then, Freddie Mac data shows they’ve stayed between 6% and 7% for the better part of the last 3 or so years (see graph below):

a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph ofYes, there was one brief spike above that threshold, but overall, rates have stayed in that range for a while now. That predictability helps when you’re planning a move. 

And now that this seems to be a longer-term trend, people have accepted it as the new normal. Buyers have gotten comfortable purchasing in that range, and sellers have gotten just as comfortable listing in it.

That comfort’s important because when both sides know what to expect, they keep making moves. In other words, the market isn’t frozen waiting for something to change. It’s moving calmly.

Bottom Line

The rest of the world may feel unpredictable right now, but the housing market doesn’t have to. Prices, inventory, and rates have all found solid ground.

If stability is what you’ve been waiting for, it’s already here. Connect with a local real estate agent if you want to talk through what that means for your move.

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For Buyers

Higher Rates Could Actually Help Housing Supply – Here’s How.

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You may have heard the number of homes for sale isn’t growing like it was. And maybe that has you worried you won’t find a home you love when it’s time to make your move.

But that may be about to change. Here’s why your pool of options may actually start ticking back up again.

Growth Has Slowed, But It Hasn’t Stopped

Active listings were up 2.1% year-over-year in July, according to Realtor.com. Back in January, inventory was up 10%. And in May of 2025, it was up 31.5%. So, growth has cooled off a lot over the last year.

The past 3 months, though, have all seen inventory growth land in roughly the same range, which is a sign this slowdown may be nearing its floor (see graph below):

a graph of growth in a blue background

So, what does that mean for you?

Homes are still coming onto the market. Every single one of these bars shows a period where inventory grew. So, don’t be discouraged or let this make you think you’re out of options. Plus, we’ve seen more stability in the numbers lately, which is a good sign.

The Most Homes for Sale Since 2019

Compared to the rock-bottom lows of 2021, inventory has climbed back substantially. Nationally, the number of homes for sale has been up year-over-year consistently now for 33 months. And inventory has almost doubled in just a few years. So don’t get too hung up on the pace of that increase.

This July was actually the best July for inventory since 2019 (see graph below):

a graph of blue bars with white text

Now, the market still needs about 150k listings to get back to pre-pandemic levels, but things are quickly approaching normal. And experts think we may even be back to 2019 levels by the end of this year, even with the slowdown we’ve already seen.

And that’s thanks to one unlikely factor: mortgage rates

Why Higher Rates May Actually Help Inventory Grow

It works like this. When mortgage rates climb, inventory tends to climb with them. As Mike Simonsen, Chief Economist at Compass, explains:

When rates rise; inventory rises. When rates fall; inventory falls. So, from July last year to March this year, rates ease lower and all the inventory growth of the past several years evaporated. If rates move higher from here or stay elevated for [a] longer period of time, then we should expect supply to build again.

Well, rates are expected to hold in the mid-to-upper 6% range for a while longer, and Realtor.com‘s latest forecast has inventory ending 2026 up 3.6% year-over-year.

That means 2 things:

  • Inventory growth is forecast to pick up a little bit throughout the rest of the year.

  • And, inventory is projected to close the year at a historically normal level, right about where it stood at the end of 2019.

For buyers, that’s a win. Even if today’s rates aren’t your favorite, they’re helping the number of homes on the market to grow. And more homes for sale means more choices, more room to negotiate, and less pressure to rush your search.

Bottom Line

The number of homes for sale is growing slowly but surely, and that means more options for your move. Want to see what’s available in your area? Reach out to a local real estate agent.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.