Connect with us

For Buyers

Will Surging Unemployment Crush Home Sales?

Published

on

Ten million Americans lost their jobs over the last two weeks. The next announced unemployment rate on May 8th is expected to be in the double digits. Because the health crisis brought the economy to a screeching halt, many are feeling a personal financial crisis. James Bullard, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, explained that the government is trying to find ways to assist those who have lost their jobs and the companies which were forced to close (think: your neighborhood restaurant). In a recent interview he said:

“This is a planned, organized partial shutdown of the U.S. economy in the second quarter. The overall goal is to keep everyone, households and businesses, whole.”

That’s promising, but we’re still uncertain as to when the recently unemployed will be able to return to work.

Another concern: how badly will the U.S. economy be damaged if people can’t buy homes?

A new concern is whether the high number of unemployed Americans will cause the residential real estate market to crash, putting a greater strain on the economy and leading to even more job losses. The housing industry is a major piece of the overall economy in this country.

Chris Herbert, Managing Director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, in a post titled Responding to the Covid-19 Pandemic, addressed the toll this crisis will have on our nation, explaining:

“Housing is a foundational element of every person’s well-being. And with nearly a fifth of US gross domestic product rooted in housing-related expenditures, it is also critical to the well-being of our broader economy.”

How has the unemployment rate affected home sales in the past?

It’s logical to think there would be a direct correlation between the unemployment rate and home sales: as the unemployment rate went up, home sales would go down, and when the unemployment rate went down, home sales would go up.

However, research reviewing the last thirty years doesn’t show that direct relationship, as noted in the graph below. The blue and grey bars represent home sales, while the yellow line is the unemployment rate. Take a look at numbers 1 through 4:Will Surging Unemployment Crush Home Sales? | Simplifying The Market

  1. The unemployment rate was rising between 1992-1993, yet home sales increased.
  2. The unemployment rate was rising between 2001-2003, and home sales increased.
  3. The unemployment rate was rising between 2007-2010, and home sales significantly decreased.
  4. The unemployment rate was falling continuously between 2015-2019, and home sales remained relatively flat.

The impact of the unemployment rate on home sales doesn’t seem to be as strong as we may have thought.

Isn’t this time different?

Yes. There is no doubt the country hasn’t seen job losses this quickly in almost one hundred years. How bad could it get? Goldman Sachs projects the unemployment rate to be 15% in the third quarter of 2020, flattening to single digits by the fourth quarter of this year, and then just over 6% percent by the fourth quarter of 2021. Not ideal for the housing industry, but manageable.

How does this compare to the other financial crises?

Some believe this is going to be reminiscent of The Great Depression. From the standpoint of unemployment rates alone (the only thing this article addresses), it does not compare. Here are the unemployment rates during the Great Depression, the Great Recession, and the projected rates moving forward:Will Surging Unemployment Crush Home Sales? | Simplifying The Market

Bottom Line

We’ve given you the facts as we know them. The housing market will have challenges this year. However, with the help being given to those who have lost their jobs and the fact that we’re looking at a quick recovery for the economy after we address the health problem, the housing industry should be fine in the long term. Stay safe.

Continue Reading
Click to comment

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

For Buyers

More Homes for Sale Isn’t a Warning Sign – It’s Your Buying Opportunity

Published

on

Maybe you’ve heard the number of homes for sale has reached a recent high. And it might make you question if this is the start of another housing market crash.

But the reality is, the data proves that’s just not the case. In most areas, more inventory isn’t bad news. It’s actually a sign of the market returning to a more stable, healthy place.

What’s Going on With Inventory?

Based on the latest data from Realtor.com, inventory just hit its highest point since 2020, shown with the white line in the graph below.

But what you need to realize is, at the same time, inventory levels still haven’t returned to pre-pandemic norms (shown in gray):

a graph of different colored linesThat means there are more homes for sale now than there have been in quite some time.

And while it’s true inventory is up significantly compared to where it was over the last few years, the number of homes on the market is still well below typical levels. And that’s important context.

Why This Isn’t the Problem A Lot of People Think It Is

Some people hear inventory’s rising and immediately think about 2008. Because back then, inventory spiked just before the market crashed. But today’s situation is very different.

Here’s the key reason why. We don’t have a surplus of homes; we have a deficit to climb out of. What we’re dealing with is a long-term housing shortage – and it’s a big one.

The red bars in the graph below show all the years where housing starts (new builds) didn’t keep up with household formation, going all the way back to 2012. The deeper the bars in the graph, the more the housing deficit grew (see graph below):

a graph of a graph showing the value of a housing deficitAnd one of the reasons this housing shortage kept growing is because new home construction just didn’t keep up with the number of people who need to buy homes. In fact, the U.S. is actually short millions of homes at this point, and it will take years to overcome that gap. Realtor.com says:

“At a 2024 rate of construction relative to household formations and pent-up demand, it would take 7.5 years to close the housing gap.

That means, in most areas, there isn’t a risk of having too many houses on the market right now. It’s quite the opposite – a vast majority of markets actually need more homes.

Which is why, even though inventory is rising, it’s not a problem on a national scale. It’s just helping to fill a gap that’s been growing for years.

Bottom Line

Don’t let the headlines scare you. Rising inventory isn’t a sign of a crash. It’s a step toward a more normal, stable housing market.

Continue Reading

Buying Tips

What Buyers Need To Know About Homeowners Association Fees

Published

on

When buying a home, you’re probably thinking about mortgage rates, home prices, your down payment, and maybe even your closing costs. But you may not be thinking about homeowners association (HOA) fees. While you won’t necessarily have these, you should know it’s a possibility, depending on where you decide to live.

A homeowners association is basically an organization that oversees a housing community (including shared spaces) and sets and enforces rules for things like upkeep. Some buyers love the perks that come with an HOA, others may see the fees as an extra expense. The key is knowing what they cover and whether the benefits outweigh the costs for you.

The Benefits of Having an HOA

Think about this. If you’ve fallen in love with a home because of how beautiful the community is – maybe it’s the landscaping, the well-maintained streets, or the overall curb appeal – there’s a good chance the HOA is one of the reasons why it looks so good. Here are some of the biggest perks:

  • Neighborhood Maintenance: Many HOAs cover landscaping, snow removal, and upkeep of common areas. This helps maintain the neighborhood’s overall appearance.
  • Amenities: Depending on the neighborhood, an HOA could also include access to perks like a pool, clubhouse, fitness center, or even private security. In these cases, while you have to pay an HOA fee, you’re also saving money in some ways because you don’t need to have separate gym or pool memberships anymore.
  • Property Value Protection: Since HOAs enforce community standards, they prevent homes from falling into disrepair. So, you don’t have to worry about nearby eyesores hurting your property value.
  • Less Personal Upkeep: In some communities, HOAs even take care of exterior maintenance, roof repairs, or other shared responsibilities, reducing the work for homeowners.

HOA Fees: More Common, Especially in Newer Neighborhoods

Does every house have HOA fees? No, not all homes have them. But they are common, especially in newer communities. In fact, over 80% of newly built single-family homes are now part of an HOA, according to the Wall Street Journal (see graph below):

a graph with a line going upBut it’s not just new builds that have homeowners associations. Homes that were previously lived in may have an HOA fee too. According to Axios roughly 4 out of every 10 homes had an HOA in 2024.

HOA Fees and Your Home Search

Ask your agent about which homes do and do not have HOA fees as part of your search – and how much the fees are. Some neighborhoods have quarterly dues, some have monthly, some don’t have any at all. To give you some sort of baseline though, the median HOA fee rose last year to $125 per month, based on a report from Realtor.com.

But remember, the costs vary and sometimes these fees give you access to great perks. As Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, explains:

“When considering a home with an HOA, buyers should work to understand what benefits it provides like maintenance, security, or communal amenities, and how the HOA fees factor into their overall budget.”

Bottom Line

Before buying a home in an HOA community, it’s a good idea to review the rules and fees so you know exactly what’s included, how that fits into your overall budget, and what restrictions may apply.

Would you rather pay an HOA fee for added perks, or skip it and have full control over your property? Connect with an agent to talk about what’s best for you.

Continue Reading

Buying Tips

Housing Market Forecasts for the Second Half of 2025

Published

on

a screenshot of a mobile app

Some Highlights

  • Are you wondering what to expect if you buy or sell a home in the second half of the year? Here’s what the expert forecasts tell you.
  • Mortgage rates are expected to come down slightly. There will be more homes available for sale. And as inventory rises, home price growth will moderate.
  • Want to know what this could mean for your plans? Connect with a local agent and talk through it together.

Continue Reading

Subscribe for Weekly

Real Estate Insights

Advertisement

Trending

Copyright © 2020-2025 Landshark Mark, LLC. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, Landshark Mark, LLC and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.