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Unemployment Report: No Need to Be Terrified

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Last Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its latest jobs report. It revealed that the economic shutdown made necessary by COVID-19 caused the unemployment rate to jump to 14.7%. Many anticipate that next month the percentage could be even higher. These numbers represent the extreme hardship so many families are experiencing right now. That pain should not be understated.

However, the long-term toll the pandemic will cause should not be overstated either. There have been numerous headlines claiming the current disruption in the economy is akin to the Great Depression, and many of those articles are calling for total Armageddon. Some experts are stepping up to refute those claims.

In a Wall Street Journal (WSJ) article this past weekend, Josh Zumbrun, a national economics correspondent for the Journal explained:

“News stories often describe the coronavirus-induced global economic downturn as the worst since the Great Depression…the comparison does more to terrify than clarify.”

Zumbrun goes on to explain:

“From 1929 to 1933, the economy shrank for 43 consecutive months, according to contemporaneous estimates. Unemployment climbed to nearly 25% before slowly beginning its descent, but it remained above 10% for an entire decade…This time, many economists believe a rebound could begin this year or early next year.”

Here is a graph comparing current unemployment numbers (actual and projected) to those during the Great Depression:Unemployment Report: No Need to Be Terrified | Simplifying The MarketClearly, the two unemployment situations do not compare.

What makes this time so different?

This was not a structural collapse of the economy, but instead a planned shutdown to help mitigate the virus. Once the virus is contained, the economy will immediately begin to recover. This is nothing like what happened in the 1930s. In the same WSJ article mentioned above, former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who has done extensive research on the depression in the 1930s, explained:

“The breakdown of the financial system was a major reason for both the Great Depression and the 2007-09 recession.” He went on to say that today – “the banks are stronger and much better capitalized.”

What about the families and small businesses that are suffering right now?

The nation’s collective heart goes out to all. The BLS report, however, showed that ninety percent of the job losses are temporary. In addition, many are getting help surviving this pause in their employment status. During the Great Depression, there were no government-sponsored unemployment insurance or large government subsidies as there are this time.

Today, many families are receiving unemployment benefits and an additional $600 a week. The stimulus package is helping many companies weather the storm. Is there still pain? Of course. The assistance, however, is providing much relief until most can go back to work.

Bottom Line

We should look at the current situation for what it is – a predetermined pause placed on the economy. The country will recover once the pandemic ends. Comparisons to any other downturn make little sense. Bernanke put it best:

“I don’t find comparing the current downturn with the Great Depression to be very helpful. The expected duration is much less, and the causes are very different.”

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Agent Value

Don’t Miss Out on the Growing Number of Down Payment Assistance Programs

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With rising home prices and volatile mortgage rates, it’s important you know about every resource that could help make buying a home possible. And one thing you’ll want to be aware of is just how much the number of down payment assistance (DPA) programs has grown lately.

Take a look at the graph below to see how many new programs have been added in the last year, according to data from Down Payment Resource:

More Programs, More Opportunities for You

So, what does this increase mean for you? With more programs available, there’s a higher likelihood that one of them could help you reach your homeownership goals.

And these programs aren’t small-scale help either – the benefits can go a long way toward covering a chunk of your costs. As Rob Chrane, Founder and CEO of Down Payment Resource, shares:

“We are pleased to see a growing number of these programs, and think they are becoming a targeted way to help first-time and first-generation homebuyers struggling to save for a down payment get into a home they can afford. Our data shows the average DPA benefit is roughly $17,000. That can be a nice jump-start for saving for a down payment and other costs of homeownership.”

Imagine being able to qualify for $17,000 toward your down payment—that’s a big boost, especially if you’re looking to buy your first home. With that level of help, buying a home may be more within reach than you think.

But it’s worth calling out that the growth in DPA options isn’t just focused on first-time and first-generation buyers. Many of the new programs are also aimed at supporting affordable housing initiatives, which include manufactured and multi-family homes. This means that more people, and a wider variety of home types, can qualify for down payment assistance, making it easier for you to find an option that fits your needs.

Talk to a Real Estate Expert About What’s Available for You

With so many DPA programs out there, you need to make sure you’re finding the right one for you. That’s why it’s key to lean on your real estate and lending professionals for guidance. The Mortgage Reports says:

“The best way to find down payment assistance programs for which you qualify is to speak with your loan officer or broker. They should know about local grants and loan programs that can help you out.”

Your loan officer or real estate agent will know what’s available in your area and can point you toward programs that align with your goals.

Bottom Line

With more down payment assistance programs than ever before, now’s a great time to explore how these options can help on your homebuying journey. Connect with a team of expert advisors to see which DPA programs could be a fit for you.

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Economy

Is Wall Street Really Buying All the Homes?

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Let’s be real – buying a home right now is tough. You’re scrolling through listings, rushing to open houses, and maybe even losing out to more competitive offers. Somewhere along the way, you might’ve heard the reason it’s so hard to find a home is because big Wall Street investors are swooping in and snatching up everything in sight.

But here’s the thing: that’s mostly a myth. While investors are part of the market, according to Redfin, they’re a relatively small part:

Here’s what that means. Five out of every six homes are being purchased by everyday homebuyers like you – not big investors.

So, before you get discouraged, let’s take a look at what’s really going on. You might be surprised to learn that Wall Street isn’t the competition you may think it is.

Most Investors Are Small Mom-and-Pops

Most investors aren’t the mega corporations you’ve probably heard about. In fact, many are your neighbors. A recent report from CoreLogic shows most investors are small, mom-and-pop types who own fewer than 10 properties. They aren’t massive companies with endless resources. Picture your neighbor who has another home they’re renting out or a vacation getaway.

Only about 1% of the market is owned by large, mega investors with thousands of properties. The majority are still owned by individuals and smaller investors – not the Wall Street giants.

Investor Purchases Are Declining

Not only are most investors small, but overall investor purchases have been on the decline. As the same report from CoreLogic says:

“Investors made 80,000 purchases in June 2024, compared with 112,000 in June 2023, and a nearly 50% percent drop from the high of 149,000 purchases in June 2021 . . .”

And what does this mean going forward? CoreLogic goes on to point out this downward trend is expected to continue into 2025.

So, if it seems like competition with investors is pushing you out of the market, it might help to know that investor activity is actually slowing down.

Bottom Line

The idea that Wall Street is buying up all the homes is largely a myth. Most investors are small ones, and the share of homes purchased by investors is declining – so you can take this one off your worry list.

If you have questions about the housing market, talk to a local real estate agent. They can explain what’s really happening.

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For Buyers

More Homes, Slower Price Growth – What It Means for You as a Buyer

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There are more homes on the market right now than there have been in years – and that could be a game changer for you if you’re ready to buy. Let’s look at two reasons why.

You Have More Options To Choose From

An article from Realtor.com helps explain just how much the number of homes for sale has gone up this year:

“There were 29.2% more homes actively for sale on a typical day in October compared with the same time in 2023, marking the twelfth consecutive month of annual inventory growth and the highest count since December 2019.”

And while the number of homes on the market still isn’t quite back to where it was in the years leading up to the pandemic, this is definitely an improvement (see graph below):

a graph of a number of homesWith more homes available for sale now, you have more options to choose from. As Hannah Jones, Senior Economic Research Analyst at Realtor.com, explains:

“Though still lower than pre-pandemic, burgeoning home supply means buyers have more options . . .

That means you have a better chance of finding a house that meets your needs. It also means the buying process doesn’t have to feel quite as rushed, because more options on the market means you’ll likely face less competition from other buyers.

Home Price Growth Is Slowing

When there aren’t many homes for sale, buyers have to compete more fiercely for the ones that are available. That’s what happened a few years ago, and it’s what drove prices up so quickly.

But now, the increasing number of homes on the market is causing home price growth to slow down (see graph below):

a graph of green and blue linesIn certain markets, the number of available homes has not only bounced back to normal, but has even surpassed pre-pandemic levels. In those areas, home price growth has slowed or stalled completely. As Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub, explains:

“Generally speaking, housing markets where active inventory has returned to pre-pandemic 2019 levels have seen home price growth soften or even decline outright from their 2022 peak.”

Slower or stalled price growth could give you a better chance of finding something within your budget. As Dr. Anju Vajja, Deputy Director at the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), says:

“For the third consecutive month U.S. house prices showed little movement . . . relatively flat house prices may improve housing affordability.

But remember, inventory levels and home prices are going to vary by market.

So, having a real estate agent who knows the local area can be a big advantage. They can help you understand the trends in your community, which can make a real difference in finding a home that fits your needs and budget.

Bottom Line

More housing options – and the slower home price growth they bring – can help you find and buy a home that works for your lifestyle and budget. So don’t hesitate to reach out to a local real estate agent if you want to talk about the growing number of choices you have right now.

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The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.