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3 Things That Are Not Going To Happen in Today’s Housing Market

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There’s a lot of uncertainty right now and that’s leading to some dramatic headlines. And if you’re thinking about buying a home, that can make you feel a little less sure about your decision.

A recent study by CNBC asked homebuyers what they’re most worried about, and three themes kept coming up again and again:

  • Mortgage rates
  • The number of homes for sale
  • Home prices

But a lot of what you may be hearing on those is based more on misconceptions. Not facts. So, let’s break it down and separate fact from fiction.

Misconception #1: “I’ll Just Wait, Because Mortgage Rates Are Going To Fall Dramatically”

One idea doing its rounds on social is that mortgage rates are going to drop dramatically soon. So, it’s better to wait to buy.

But is that really what’s expected?

While mortgage rates have come down a bit in the last few weeks, forecasts don’t show a major drop ahead. The most likely scenario is that rates stay somewhere in the low 6% range this year. 

And that’s not a big change from where rates are now (see graph below): 

a graph with numbers and linesOf course, this depends on where inflation and the economy go from here. But, based on what we know today, waiting for a big drop in rates may not work out the way some people hope. As U.S. News explains:

“Mortgage rates aren’t expected to change much over the next several quarters . . .”

Not to mention, even with rates where they are today, it’s already more affordable than a year ago. So, even if they don’t change much, it’s still better than it was.

Misconception #2: “There Are Too Many Homes for Sale Right Now”

You’ve probably heard inventory is up. And nationally, it is. The number of homes for sale is 8% higher than this time last year. But that’s not a bad thing. In fact, it’s one of the reasons buyers have a bit more breathing room right now.

The problem is the headlines are making something good, sound bad. They’re focusing on how this is the most inventory we’ve had since 2019 or how many homes builders are building. And that can make it sound like the number of homes for sale is rising too far, too fast.

But that’s not what the bigger picture shows.

Data from Realtor.com proves that, even though inventory is up compared to last year, it’s still nearly 14% lower than it was during the last normal housing market (2017-2019):

While it can vary a lot based on where you live, only 9 states have more inventory than pre-pandemic today. That’s a key reason why there still aren’t enough homes for sale to trigger something like the crash back in 2008.

Misconception #3: “Home Prices Are About To Crash”

You’ve probably seen this one, too. The confusion is coming from the fact that some metros are experiencing slight price declines. And influencers are running with that and saying prices are crashing. But that’s not the reality.

Most areas are seeing prices rise, not fall. And that’s because:

  • Many homeowners aren’t selling because they don’t want to give up the low mortgage rate they locked in a few years ago. And that’s keeping a lid on how much inventory can grow.
  • Since inventory is still below pre-pandemic norms, there aren’t enough homes for sale to cause a price crash.
  • And even in markets with more inventory, some sellers are choosing to pull their homes off the market instead of cutting prices.

And those are 3 big reasons prices aren’t headed for a crash. 

And even in the markets experiencing mild declines, the drops aren’t enough to cancel out the big gains most homeowners have seen in the last 5 years (see graph below):

That’s not a crash. That’s just prices moderating after a few record-breaking years.

Bottom Line

Online posts are going to make things sound worse than they are. If you want a true, data-bound look at what’s really happening in today’s market, lean on a real estate agent.

Connect with a local agent so you have someone to separate fact from fiction today.

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Affordability

Think You Have To Put 20% Down? Most First-Time Homebuyers Don’t.

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According to Google Trends, online searches for down payment information recently hit an all-time high. And that’s a clear sign more buyers are trying to figure out what they really need to save before making a move (see graph below):

a graph of a line graphIf you’re wondering the same thing, you can always turn to the internet for answers. But a lot of the time, it’s better to ask a local expert. Because here’s what a pro would tell you.

The 20% Down Payment Myth

The idea that you need 20% down to buy a home is one of the biggest misconceptions around the homebuying process. And the data debunks the myth.

While there are benefits to putting that much money down, most first-time buyers put down far less.

Here’s why. Unless it’s stated by your lender, you typically don’t have to have a 20% down payment. There are even some loan options designed to help you get into a home with a much smaller upfront cost. As the Mortgage Reports explains:

“The amount you need to put down will depend on a variety of factors, including the loan type and your financial goals. If you don’t have a large down payment saved up, don’t worry—there are plenty of options available, and you don’t need to put down the traditional 20% . . . many homebuyers are able to secure a home with as little as 3% or even no down payment at all . . .

For example, FHA loans allow down payments as low as 3.5%, while VA and USDA loans offer zero down payment options for qualified applicants, like Veterans.

And those options are just one reason so many first-time buyers are able to buy without a 20% down payment.

What Buyers Are Actually Putting Down

So, if buyers aren’t doing 20%, how much do they actually put down?

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the median down payment for first-time homebuyers is only 10%. That’s half of what you probably expected.

a diagram of a pie chartThat means if you’re aiming to save 20% because you think you have to, you may be setting a timeline that’s longer than necessary.  

And here’s some more good news. It’s not only that you may be able to buy with less money down than you thought, but there are also options to help you get to your down payment goal even faster.

Why You Should Look into Down Payment Assistance Programs

There are a lot of programs designed to help you save for a down payment – and they can make a big difference in how fast you hit your savings target. Unfortunately, buyers don’t realize how many there are, or that they may qualify for help.

Research from Realtor.com shows almost 80% of first-time homebuyers qualify for down payment assistance (DPA), but only 13% actually use it (see chart below)

a blue and orange pie chartAnd that’s another big miss holding would-be buyers like you back.

In the U.S., there are over 2,600 homeownership programs available, many offering significant financial support. As Down Payment Resource shares:

With an average benefit of $18,000, down payment assistance (DPA) remains one of the most essential tools for addressing the nation’s affordability challenges. Programs continue to expand in scope, serving a broader range of incomes, property types and borrower needs, including first-generation, military and repeat buyers.

Imagine how much further your savings could go with an extra $18,000 you can use to buy. In some cases, you may even be able to stack multiple programs, giving what you’ve saved an even bigger boost.

Bottom Line

The simple truth is: most first-time buyers don’t put 20% down. And if you’ve been waiting to buy until you have that saved, you may be setting a timeline that’s longer than necessary.

To find out what you really need to save and if you qualify for any help, connect with a trusted lender who can walk you through your options. You may be able to buy sooner than you thought.

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Equity

Rent or Buy? The Real Tradeoff Most People Don’t Talk About

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You’ve probably asked yourself lately: Is it even worth trying to buy a home right now? It’s a question a lot of people are asking.

With today’s home prices and mortgage rates, renting can feel like the easier path. In some cases, it might even seem like the only realistic option right now. And if that’s where you are, there’s nothing wrong with that.

But if you’re weighing the decision, there’s one part of the conversation that doesn’t get talked about enough.

It’s what each choice does for your future.

What Renting Really Gets You (And What It Doesn’t)

Depending on your situation, renting does have some advantages:

  • Lower upfront costs.
  • Less responsibility.
  • More flexibility to move when you want.

But even with those benefits, a Bank of America survey found 70% of aspiring homeowners worry about what long-term renting means for their future. And that concern comes down to one thing: you’re not building anything for your future. As Yahoo Finance explains:

“Paying rent doesn’t build equity. You get a place to live, but no ownership stake, no price appreciation, and no asset to leverage for future borrowing or investment.”

So, while renting may feel easier, the flexibility you get comes at a cost.

How Homeownership Builds Your Wealth Over Time

On the other hand, owning a home is one of the most consistent ways people build wealth over time. Why? When you’re a homeowner, you gain something called equity. That’s the difference between what your home is worth and what you owe.

That equity grows with every monthly payment you make. It also gets a boost as home values go up through the years – and it adds up quicker than you may think.

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says the average homeowner’s net worth is 43X greater than that of a renter:

a graph of a number of peopleThe dollars in the visual don’t lie. On average, here’s how net worth compares:

  • Homeowners: $430k
  • Renters: $10k

And it’s not because homeowners make wildly different decisions day to day. It’s because over time, one path builds something, and the other doesn’t.

So sure, buying comes with some upfront costs and more responsibility. But it’s basically a savings account you can live in.

The Gap Is Growing Over Time

And here’s something else interesting. That net worth gap between renters and homeowners has been widening over time, not shrinking.

If you look back at the reports on net worth through the years, you can see the gap is growing as homeowners gain wealth and renters stay stuck in the rental trap (see graph below):

a graph of green and blue barsEven in 2025, when home prices were moderating, homeowners still gained even more ground. And that tells you something important:

When you can afford it and you’re ready for the responsibility, history shows buying is usually worth it in the long run. Because either way, you’re paying for someone’s mortgage and building someone’s net worth.

When you rent, it’s your landlord’s mortgage – not yours. But when you buy? Your monthly payments help build equity.

The question is: whose do you want to pay? Yours or theirs?

So, Should You Buy a Home Now?

The short answer is, it depends on your situation.

While the long-term benefits of buying are clear, that doesn’t mean the timing is right for everyone right now. And that’s okay. You should only buy a home once you’re ready and the numbers work for you.

But whether you’re looking to buy now or planning for the future, the first step is the same. You should have a quick conversation with a local real estate agent about your goals, timeline, and budget.

They can help you run the numbers and see what’s realistic. You may find buying is closer than you thought. And if not, you’ll at least know exactly what it will take to get there.

Because the sooner you have a plan, the sooner you can decide when it makes sense, instead of wondering if it ever will.

Bottom Line

Renting may feel more do-able today. But over time, it could cost you.

If you want to ditch renting and start building something for your future, it starts with a simple conversation. Connect with a real estate agent to talk about your specific goals, and explore your options – so you’re ready when the time is right for you.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.