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Experts Predict Economic Recovery Should Begin in the Second Half of the Year

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One of the biggest questions we all seem to be asking these days is: When are we going to start to see an economic recovery? As the country begins to slowly reopen, moving forward in strategic phases, business activity will help bring our nation back to life. Many economists indicate a recovery should begin to happen in the second half of this year. Here’s a look at what some of the experts have to say.

Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman

“I think there’s a good chance that there’ll be positive growth in the third quarter. And I think it’s a reasonable expectation that there’ll be growth in the second half of the year…

So, in the long run, I would say the U.S. economy will recover. We’ll get back to the place we were in February; we’ll get to an even better place than that. I’m highly confident of that. And it won’t take that long to get there.”

Nonpartisan Analysis for the U.S Congress

“The economy is expected to begin recovering during the second half of 2020 as concerns about the pandemic diminish and as state and local governments ease stay-at-home orders, bans on public gatherings, and other measures. The labor market is projected to materially improve after the third quarter; hiring will rebound and job losses will drop significantly as the degree of social distancing diminishes.”

Neel Kashkari, President, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank

“I think we need to prepare for a more gradual recovery while we hope for that quicker rebound.”

We’re certainly not out of the woods yet, but clearly many experts anticipate we’ll see a recovery starting this year. It may be a bumpy ride for the next few months, but most agree that a turnaround will begin sooner rather than later.

During the planned shutdown, as the economic slowdown pressed pause on the nation, many potential buyers and sellers put their real estate plans on hold. That time coincided with the traditionally busy spring real estate season. As we look ahead at this economic recovery and we begin to emerge back into our communities over the coming weeks and months, perhaps it’s time to think about putting your real estate plans back into play.

Bottom Line

The experts note a turnaround is on the horizon, starting as early as later this year. If you paused your 2020 real estate plans, let’s connect today to determine how you can re-engage in the process as the country reopens and the economy begins a much-anticipated rebound.

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First-Time Buyers

Townhomes: A Smart Solution for Today’s First-Time Buyers

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Buying your first home in today’s market can feel tough. Between high home prices and mortgage rates, affordability is still a big challenge. And some buyers are making one simple trade-off that’s getting them in the door faster: square footage.

According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), 35% of buyers are willing to purchase something smaller to make homeownership happen. And one place you can usually find a smaller footprint (and sometimes better affordability) is in townhomes.

Why Townhomes Are Gaining Popularity

Townhomes typically cost less than single-family homes due to their more limited size. And that’s a big plus for today’s budget-conscious buyer. As Realtor.com says:

“In today’s market, affordability remains a key priority for homebuyers, making townhomes an attractive option because they are often priced more reasonably than single-family homes. It makes them especially appealing to first-time homebuyers on a tighter budget . . .”

So, if you’re trying to buy but feeling stuck because of rising prices, shifting your focus to townhomes could be one way to get into homeownership without maxing out your budget.

Builders Are Responding to the Demand

Builders have seen buyers’ appetite shift to smaller homes, and they’re adjusting to meet the demand. As Joel Berner, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, explains:

“Builders are making a concerted effort to provide smaller, more affordable inventory to the market in a way that the existing-home market cannot. Townhomes are a significant portion of that effort.”

And the numbers back it up. According to data from Realtor.com, townhomes now make up a bigger share of new construction listings than they did just a couple of years ago (see graph below):

a graph of a growing graphThat means, if you’re interested in this type of house, you have more choices than you would have had over the last few years. And more options that are potentially more affordable are definitely a good thing. It should make your search for your first home a bit easier.

Is a Townhome Right for You?

If you’ve been focused only on more traditional homes with their own yards, an agent can help you explore whether a townhome could work for you. Who knows, you may find out you love the lifestyle. A lot of people do. As an article from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) explains:

“Townhomes tend to cost less than single-family detached homes and can be appealing to young professionals who may desire medium-density, walkable neighborhoods.”

That’s because they’re lower maintenance, they can provide a sense of community with other residents, and they have their own unique amenities. Not to mention, they give you the chance to start building wealth through homeownership without the upkeep that comes with having your own detached, single-family home. And that can be great for first-time buyers who are a bit worried about the maintenance anyway.

But they also come with some other considerations, like dealing with noise through shared walls. If you’re a renter right now, maybe you’re used to that already. But these are the types of things you’ll want to think about. And that’s where an agent’s expertise comes in. They’ll help you weigh the pros and cons, so you understand how a townhome fits into your lifestyle and long-term goals before making your decision.

Bottom Line

If you’re struggling to find a home within your budget, it may be time to expand your search and consider options you haven’t before, like townhomes. Sometimes, compromising a little bit on space is worth it to get your foot in the door.

What matters most to you — space, location, or budget? Connect with an agent to figure out where you can flex to make homeownership happen.

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For Buyers

Here’s What a Recession Could Mean for the Housing Market

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Recession talk is all over the news, and the odds of a recession are rising this year. And that leaves people wondering what would happen to the housing market if we do go into a recession.

Let’s take a look at some historical data to show what’s happened in housing for each recession going all the way back to the 1980s.

A Recession Doesn’t Mean Home Prices Will Fall

Many people think that if a recession hits, home prices will fall like they did in 2008. But that was an exception, not the rule. It was the only time we saw such a steep drop in prices. And it hasn’t happened since.

In fact, according to data from CoreLogic, in four of the last six recessions, home prices actually went up (see graph below):

a graph of a graph showing the price of falling pricesSo, if you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, don’t assume a recession will lead to a crash in home prices. The data simply doesn’t support that idea. Instead, home prices usually follow whatever trajectory they’re already on. And right now, nationally, home prices are still rising at a more normal pace.

Mortgage Rates Typically Decline During Recessions

While home prices tend to stay on their current path, mortgage rates usually drop during economic slowdowns. Again, looking at data from the last six recessions, mortgage rates fell each time (see graph below):

a graph of a graph showing the rise of mortgage ratesSo, a recession means mortgage rates could decline based on the data. While that would help with affordability, don’t expect the return of a 3% rate.

Bottom Line

The answer to the recession question is still unknown, but the odds have gone up. But that doesn’t mean you have to wonder about the impact on the housing market – historical data tells us what usually happens.

When you hear talk about a possible recession, what concerns or questions come to mind about buying or selling a home?

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For Buyers

Paused Your Moving Plans? Here’s Why It Might Be Time To Hit Play Again

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Last year, 70% of buyers abandoned their home search – and maybe you were one of them. It makes sense. Inventory was low, prices were high, and mortgage rates were up and down like a rollercoaster. All of that made it really hard to find a home you loved – and could afford.

But guess what? The market is shifting.

So, if you paused your moving plans in 2024, it might be time to hit play again. Here’s why.

More Inventory Opens Up More Options

Even if you could make the numbers work, the lack of available homes in recent years probably made it hard to come by something that fit your needs. But inventory is rising, which means you have more options now.

According to Realtor.com, inventory has jumped 27.5% since this time last year (see graph below):

a graph showing the average of a home saleSo, if you were reluctant to list your house because you weren’t sure where you’d go if it sold, you have more choices than you did a year ago. That’s a big win.

Homes Are Staying on the Market Longer, Too

When the supply of homes for sale is low, they’re snatched up quickly because there just aren’t enough of them to go around. And a few years ago, that meant your house could sell overnight. While that’s not always a bad thing, if you’re planning a move and also need to find your next home, a slower pace isn’t the end of the world. In fact, it’s welcome relief.

Now that inventory has grown, homes are staying on the market longer, meaning you don’t have to feel as rushed in the process (see graph below):

a graph of blue barsThe latest data shows the typical time homes spent on the market went up by about 8% this year – that’s higher than we’ve seen since 2020, but still a faster pace than before the market ramped up. And it’s about a week longer than last year. Talk about a sweet spot for movers. It may seem like just a few days, but it gives you more flexibility and time to be thoughtful about your decisions. As Hannah Jones, Senior Economic Research Analyst at Realtor.com, notes:

“There are more homes for sale than in the last few years, which means the market pace is a bit more manageable–with longer days on market–and many sellers are more flexible . . . Though buyers face still-high housing costs, they may find a bit more give in the market, which could give them more time to make a decision, even in the busy spring and summer months.”

And if you’re thinking – but wait – doesn’t that mean it will be harder to sell my house? Don’t worry. With inventory still almost 23% below the pre-pandemic norm, well-priced homes are selling, especially as more buyers step back into the game this season.

Bottom Line

With growing inventory, sellers who want to upgrade, downsize, or relocate have more choices. Plus, with less pressure to rush into an offer, it could be a great time to revisit your home search if you put it on hold.

With more homes on the market and more time to make decisions, what else do you need to see in order to kickstart your home search again?

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Landshark Mark, LLC. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, Landshark Mark, LLC and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.