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New Index Reveals Impact of COVID-19 on Real Estate

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Earlier this month, realtor.com announced the release of their initial Housing Recovery Index, a weekly guide showing how the pandemic has impacted the residential real estate market. The index leverages a weighted average of four key components of the housing industry, tracking each of the following:

  1. Housing Demand – Growth in online search activity
  2. Home Price – Growth in asking prices
  3. Housing Supply – Growth of new listings
  4. Pace of Sales – Difference in time-on-market

The index then compares the current status “to the last week of January 2020 market trend, as a baseline for pre-COVID market growth. The overall index is set to 100 in this baseline period. The higher a market’s index value, the higher its recovery and vice versa.”

The graph below charts the index by showing how the real estate market started out strong in early 2020, and then dropped dramatically at the beginning of March when the pandemic paused the economy. It also shows the strength of the recovery since the beginning of May.New Index Reveals Impact of COVID-19 on Real Estate | Simplifying The MarketIt’s clear to see that the housing market is showing promising signs of recovery from the deep economic cuts we experienced earlier this spring. As noted by Dean Mon, Chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB):

“As the nation reopens, housing is well-positioned to lead the economy forward.”

The data today indicates the housing market is already on the way up.

Bottom Line

Staying connected to the housing market’s performance over the coming months will be essential, as we continue to evaluate exactly how the housing market is doing in this uncharted time ahead.

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For Buyers

Is the Housing Market Starting To Balance Out?

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For years, sellers have had the upper hand in the housing market. With so few homes for sale and so many people who wanted to purchase them, buyers faced tough competition just to get an offer accepted. But now, inventory is rising, and things are starting to shift in many areas.

So, is the market finally balancing out? And does that mean buyers will have it a bit easier now? Here’s what you need to know.

What Makes It a Buyer’s Market or a Seller’s Market?

It all comes down to how many homes are for sale in an area compared to how many buyers want to buy there. That’s what ultimately determines who has the most leverage.

  • A Seller’s Market is when there are more buyers than homes available, so sellers hold the power. This leads to rising prices, multiple offers, and homes selling quickly – often above the asking price – because there isn’t enough to go around.
  • A Buyer’s Market is when there are more homes than buyers. In this case, the tables turn. Sellers may have to offer concessions and incentives, or negotiate more to get a deal done. That’s because buyers have more choices and can take their time making decisions.

You can see this play out over time using data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) in the graph below:

Where the Market Stands Now

While it’s still a seller’s market in many places, buyers in certain locations have more leverage than they’ve had in years. And that’s thanks to how much inventory has grown lately. As Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub, explains:

“Among the nation’s 200 largest metro area housing markets, 41 markets ended January 2025 with more active homes for sale than they had in pre-pandemic January 2019. These are the places where homebuyers will be able to find the most leverage or market balance in 2025.”

Here’s a look at some of the strongest seller’s markets and buyer’s markets today, according to that research:

Do you know how to adjust your plans based on who’s got the most negotiating power? Because an agent does.

Clever strategies can make buying in a seller’s market easier – and vice versa. And that’s exactly why you need to hire a pro. A local real estate agent knows their market like the back of their hand. They’re super familiar with what the supply and demand balance looks like and how to help their clients get a deal done either way. So, as long as you have a skilled pro by your side, it doesn’t really matter if your town is on the list or not.

With their expertise, you’ll be able to plan ahead and buy (or sell) no matter what the market looks like.

Bottom Line

With inventory rising, the market may be starting to balance out – but it all depends on where you want to buy or sell.

If you want to know who has the most leverage where you are, talk to a local real estate agent. 

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Buying Tips

Buying Your First Home? It’s Okay To Feel Nervous

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Buying your first home is exciting, but let’s be real – it can also feel overwhelming. It’s a big step, and with that comes plenty of questions. Am I making the right decision? Can I really afford this right now? Will I be able to make ends meet if I have unexpected repairs? What if I lose my job?

Here’s the thing: every first-time homebuyer has these thoughts.

The homebuying process has always been a mix of excitement and nerves, and that’s completely normal. Here’s some information that can give you a bit of perspective, so you don’t have these concerns.

Focus on What You Can Control

Since homeownership is new to you, you’re probably feeling like it’s hard to know what to budget for. And that can be a bit scary. You’ll have the mortgage, home insurance, and maintenance to think about – maybe even lawn care or homeowner’s association (HOA) fees. It’s easy to let the dollar signs be overwhelming. As Zillow says:

“Buying a house is a big decision, and you might feel confused and indecisive as you assess your current financial situation and try to work through whether or not the timing is right. Making big life choices might come with some self-doubt, but crunching the numbers and thinking about what you want your life to look like will help guide you down the right path.

The important thing is to focus on what you can control. By partnering with a local agent and a trusted lender, you can get a clear understanding of what you can borrow for your home loan, what your monthly payment would be, and how your mortgage rate can impact it. And since that payment will likely be your biggest recurring expense, the key is to make sure the number works for you.

Don’t Stress About Repairs

The maintenance and repairs? Those can be a little bit harder to anticipate. But don’t forget you’ll get an inspection during the homebuying process to give you a better look at the condition of your future house. And with your inspection report in hand, you’ll have a good idea of what needs work. This way, you can start saving up so that you’re ready if and when something breaks.

But even then, if this is something that’s still really nagging at you, talk to your agent about asking the seller to throw in a home warranty. Those can cover repairs for some of the bigger systems in the house, like the HVAC, if they break within a specific time frame. While this isn’t a huge expense for the seller, the likelihood of a seller agreeing to one depends on what’s happening in your local market and how competitive it is right now.

It’s Okay To Stretch – Just Not Too Far

And remember, chances are that money will be a little tight – at least at first. And that’s kind of to be expected. A lot of times when someone buys their first home, they cut down on things like shopping and eating out for a while until they get a better idea of how their expenses will shake out in the new home.

But if you’re crunching the numbers and you won’t have enough money left for things like gas, food, etc. – it’s a sign you’d be stretching yourself too far. The last thing you want is to take on a payment that’s too much to handle. But stretching a little? That’s different. That’s normal.

Your Job Will Probably Change – And That’s Okay

And don’t forget, you’ll likely earn more down the road, so that slight stretch now won’t seem so bad as time wears on. As you advance in your career, you’ll probably start to make more money too. So, as your paycheck grows, the payments will get easier. Renting is a short-term option – and it’s one you deserve to get out of. Buying a home is a long-term play.

And just in case you’re worried about what happens if you do lose your job, you should know there are options, like forbearance, designed to help you temporarily pause payments on your home loan due to hardship.

Bottom Line

Buying your first home is a big decision, and it’s okay to feel a little nervous about it. But if you’re financially ready, don’t let fear keep you from moving forward. These emotions are normal, and great agents help their buyers get through them.

What makes you nervous when you think about buying your first home?

Connect with an agent so you have an expert on your side to explain everything along the way.

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For Buyers

Mortgage Rates Hit Lowest Point So Far This Year

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If you’ve been holding off on buying a home because of high mortgage rates, you might want to take another look at the market. That’s because mortgage rates have been trending down lately – and that gives you a chance to jump back in.

Mortgage rates have been declining for seven straight weeks now, according to data from Freddie Mac. And the average weekly rate is now at the lowest level so far this year (see graph below):

a graph with a line going upWhile that may not sound like a significant shift, it is noteworthy. Because the meaningful drop from over 7% to the mid-6’s can change your mindset when it comes to buying a home. Especially when the forecasts said we wouldn’t hit this number until roughly Q3 of this year (see graph below):

Why Are Rates Coming Down?

According to Joel Kan, VP and Deputy Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), recent economic uncertainty is playing a role in pushing rates lower:

“Mortgage rates declined last week on souring consumer sentiment regarding the economy and increasing uncertainty over the impact of new tariffs levied on imported goods into the U.S. Those factors resulted in the largest weekly decline in the 30-year fixed rate since November 2024.”

And the timing of this recent decline is great because it gives you a little bit of relief going into the spring market. Just remember, mortgage rates can be a quickly moving target, so you should expect some volatility going forward. But the window you have as they’re coming down right now might be the sweet spot for your purchasing power now.

What Lower Rates Mean for Your Buying Power

Even small changes in rates can make a difference to your monthly payment. Here’s how the math shakes out. The chart below shows what a monthly payment (principal and interest) would look like on a $400K home loan if you purchased a house when rates were 7.04% back in mid-January (this year’s mortgage rate high), versus what it could look like if you buy a home now (see below):

a blue and white table with white textIn just a matter of weeks, the anticipated payment on a $400K loan has come down by over $100 per month. That’s a significant savings. When you’re making a decision as big as buying a home, every bit counts.

Just remember, shifts in the economy drove rates down faster than expected. But that can change, making rates volatile in the days and months ahead. So, if you’re waiting for rates to fall further before you buy, think hard about the current window of opportunity if you’re ready to act.

Bottom Line

Mortgage rates have dipped, giving buyers a bit more immediate breathing room. If you’ve been waiting for rates to ease before jumping in, this could be your window.

Would a lower monthly payment make buying a home feel more doable for you?

Connect with an agent to break down the numbers and find out.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Let's Talk Real Estate. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.