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What Are Experts Saying about Home Prices?

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Last week, a very well-respected real estate analytics firm surprised many with their home price projection for the next twelve months. CoreLogic, in their latest Home Price Index said:

“The economic downturn that started in March 2020 is predicted to cause a 6.6% drop in the HPI by May 2021, which would be the first decrease in annual home prices in over 9 years.”

The forecast was surprising as it was strikingly different than any other projection by major analysts. Six of the other eight forecasts call for appreciation, and the two who project depreciation indicate it will be one percent or less.

Here is a graph showing all of the projections:What Are Experts Saying about Home Prices? | Simplifying The MarketThere’s a simple formula to determine the future price of any item: calculate the supply of that item in ratio to the demand for that item. In housing right now, demand far exceeds supply. Last week mortgage applications to buy a home were 33% higher than they were at the same time last year. The available inventory of homes for sale is 31% lower than it was last year. Normally, these numbers should call for homes to continue to appreciate.

Bottom Line

Because of the uncertainty with the pandemic, any economic prediction is extremely difficult. However, looking at the limited supply of homes for sale and the tremendous demand for housing, it is difficult to disagree with the majority of analysts who are calling for price appreciation.

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Mark Sincavage, REALTOR®

Mark Sincavage is a full-time real estate agent and REALTOR® Associate since 2010. Licensed in New Jersey, New York and South Carolina. — Dedicated and hardworking, Mark prides himself on making sure that all his clients experience smooth and successful real estate transactions. — Through experience and continued education, Mark has achieved the premier credentials of Seller Representative Specialist (SRS), Seniors Real Estate Specialist (SRES), Short Sale and Foreclosure Resource (SFR) and Resort & Second Home Property Specialist (RSPS). — When you’re ready to buy or sell residential real estate, Mark Sincavage is here to help!