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What Does 2021 Have in Store for Home Values?

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According to the latest CoreLogic Home Price Insights Report, nationwide home values increased by 8.2% over the last twelve months. The dramatic rise was brought about as the inventory of homes for sale reached historic lows at the same time buyer demand was buoyed by record-low mortgage rates. As CoreLogic explained:

“Home price growth remained consistently elevated throughout 2020. Home sales for the year are expected to register above 2019 levels. Meanwhile, the availability of for-sale homes has dwindled as demand increased and coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreaks continued across the country, which delayed some sellers from putting their homes on the market.

While the pandemic left many in positions of financial insecurity, those who maintained employment and income stability are also incentivized to buy given the record-low mortgage rates available; this is increasing buyer demand while for-sale inventory is in short supply.”

Where will home values go in 2021?

Home price appreciation in 2021 will continue to be determined by this imbalance of supply and demand. If supply remains low and demand is high, prices will continue to increase.

Housing Supply

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the current number of single-family homes for sale is 1,080,000. At the same time last year, that number stood at 1,450,000. We are entering 2021 with approximately 370,000 fewer homes for sale than there were one year ago.

However, there is some speculation that the inventory crush will ease somewhat as we move through the new year for two reasons:

1. As the health crisis eases, more homeowners will be comfortable putting their houses on the market.

2. Some households impacted financially by the pandemic will be forced to sell.

Housing Demand

Low mortgage rates have driven buyer demand over the last twelve months. According to Freddie Mac, rates stood at 3.72% at the beginning of 2020. Today, we’re starting 2021 with rates one full percentage point lower than that. Low rates create a great opportunity for homebuyers, which is one reason why demand is expected to remain high throughout the new year.

Taking into consideration these projections on housing supply and demand, real estate analysts forecast homes will continue to appreciate in 2021, but that appreciation may be at a steadier pace than last year. Here are their forecasts:What Does 2021 Have in Store for Home Values? | Simplifying The Market

Bottom Line

There’s still a very limited number of homes for sale for the great number of purchasers looking to buy them. As a result, the concept of “supply and demand” mandates that home values in the country will continue to appreciate.

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Affordability

Is January the Best Time To Buy a Home?

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You may not want to put your homebuying plans into hibernation mode this winter. While a lot of people assume spring is the ideal time to buy a house, new data shows January may actually be the best time of year for budget-conscious buyers. 

Kind of surprising, right? Here’s why January deserves a serious look.

1. Prices Tend To Be Lower This Time of Year

Lending Tree says January is the least expensive month to buy a home. And there’s something to that. January has historically offered one of the lowest price-per-square-foot points of the entire year. But the spring? That’s when demand (and prices) usually peak. And that’s not speculation – it’s a well-known trend based on years of market data.

a graph of a number of blue barsSo, how much less are we talking? Here’s a look at the numbers. According to the last full year of data, for the typical 1,500 square foot house, buyers who closed on their home in January paid around $23,000 less compared to those who bought in May. And that general trend typically holds true each year (see chart below):

a blue and white table with white textNow, your number is going to depend on the price, size, and type of the home you’re buying. But the trend is clear. For today’s buyers, it’s meaningful savings, especially when affordability is still tight for so many households.

2. Fewer Buyers and More Motivated Sellers 

And why do buyers typically save in the winter? It’s simple. Winter is one of the slowest times in the housing market each year. Both buyers and sellers tend to pull back, thinking it’s better to wait until spring. And that means:

  • You face less competition
  • You’re less likely to get into a multiple offer scenario
  • Sellers are more willing to negotiate (since there aren’t as many buyers)

With fewer buyers in the market, you can take your time browsing.

But winter doesn’t just thin out the pool of buyers, it also reveals which sellers truly need to sell. Because fewer people are house hunting during the colder months, sellers who really need to move tend to be more open to negotiating. As Realtor.com explains:

“Less competition means fewer bidding wars and more power to negotiate the extras that add up: closing cost credits, home warranties, even repair concessions. . . these concessions can end up knocking thousands of dollars off the price of a home.”

This can include everything from price cuts to covering closing costs, adjusting timelines, and more. It doesn’t mean you’ll automatically get discounts on every home. But it does mean you’re more likely to be taken seriously and given room to negotiate.

Should You Wait for Spring?

Here’s the real takeaway. When you remove the pressure and frenzy that comes with the busy spring season, it becomes much easier to get the home you want at a price that fits your budget.

But if you wait until spring, more buyers will be in the market. So, waiting could actually mean you spend more and you’d have to deal with more stress.

Now, only you can decide the right timing for your life, but don’t assume you should wait for warmer weather before you move.

Buying in January gives you: less competition, potentially lower prices, and more motivated sellers. And those are three perks you’re not going to see if you wait until spring.

Bottom Line

If you’ve been thinking about taking the next step, this season might give you more opportunity than you think.

Curious what buying in January could look like for you? Talk to a local agent who can help you take a closer look at your numbers and the homes that are available in your area.

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Affordability

How To Stretch Your Options, Not Your Budget

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One of the biggest homebuying advantages you can give yourself today is surprisingly simple: a flexible wish list.

Think of it like this. Your wish list and your budget are the guardrails of your search. And when your budget needs to hold firm, there’s another lever you can pull. That’s seeing if you truly need all of your desired features. Because the truth is, a small compromise could be the difference between feeling stuck and getting the keys to your next home.

The data shows more buyers are using that strategy to offset affordability hurdles in today’s market. A recent study from Cotality found most buyers (70%) ended up compromising on one or more items from their original wish list. But before they started searching, only 33% expected to compromise at all:

a blue and grey pie chartWhat changed? They realized something during the search. The things you can’t change matter far more than the things you can update later.

You can:

  • Install hardwood floors
  • Put in those marble countertops
  • Upgrade the bathrooms down the line.

You can’t as easily:

  • Add land
  • Tack on more bedrooms or bathrooms
  • Move the house closer to people you care about

In the end, things like the location, layout, and overall bones matter far more than the cosmetic features you can change later. And that realization is power.

A Simple Step That’ll Open More Doors

So, if you’re hitting a wall in your search or you’re browsing online and just not seeing “it,” here’s an easy exercise that can reset the whole experience. Write down everything you want in a home, then sort it into three buckets:

  • Must-Haves: Your non-negotiables. The things that make daily life workable: the number of bedrooms, the length of your commute, accessibility, safety, or being close to your family or support system.
  • Nice-to-Haves: Features you’d absolutely enjoy but aren’t truly essential. Some examples: a fenced-in backyard, dual closets in the owner’s suite, or a stamped patio.
  • Dream Features: The extras that would truly be over the top. They’re the things you think about when you say “one day, I want to have…” It’s great if you get them, but totally fine if you don’t (for now).

Once you divide your list, you’ll notice something. Your wish list can either limit your options or open them up.

Sometimes you’re treating “nice-to-haves” like “must-haves.” Loosen that up even a little, and suddenly more homes come into range – including homes you may have scrolled past that could actually work for your lifestyle.

Small Flexibility, Big Payoff

Your next home doesn’t need to check every box. It just needs to check the right ones.

Maybe that means considering a house that needs light cosmetic updates. Maybe it means choosing a slightly smaller yard for a better location.

These aren’t sacrifices. They’re worthwhile trade-offs that get you into a home. Just remember, anything cosmetic can be upgraded over time. But getting the right bones, the right layout, the right location? That’s what sets you up for the long run.

An Agent Helps You See the Possibilities

If you’re not sure what to hold firm on and where you can flex, that’s where a trusted agent can be a game changer. They’ll help you spot the opportunities, walk you through what features you truly shouldn’t budge on, and determine which ones you can add later – when the time is right.

Bottom Line

If you’re ready to find a home that fits both your budget and your life, talk to an agent and look at your wish list together. With a local expert on your side, it’s easier to see where a little flexibility can open up a lot more opportunity.

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Affordability

This May Be the Best Time To Buy a Brand-New Home

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New home construction today is giving buyers something it feels like they haven’t gotten much lately: a real shot at both the home they want and the deal they need. More brand-new options are on the market right now, and builders are rolling out incentives that make these homes more affordable than many people expect.

It’s a combination that doesn’t come around often – and it’s putting buyers in a surprisingly strong position this season. Here’s why this moment matters and why it’s worth partnering with your own local agent to take advantage of it.

1. More New Homes Are Available Nowand That May Not Last

There’s more new construction on the market today than normal. And for buyers, that means:

  • More cutting-edge communities
  • More move-in-ready homes
  • More floor plans to pick from
  • More upgraded designs and modern features

But that variety may not last.

Data from Zonda shows that even though it feels like new homes are popping up just about everywhere, builders have actually started pulling back. The number of starts (that’s when builders break ground) has been slowly but steadily declining over the past few years. And that’s good because it prevents overbuilding nationally.

But here’s the real insight that can give you an edge. Forecasts show that slight downward trend should continue next year (see graph below):

a graph of progress with numbers and textIt’s a signal that the new inventory we have now may be your widest pool of all-new options for a while.

Today, Redfin says roughly 1 in 3 homes (27%) on the market are new builds. That’s higher than the norm, but the lowest share in four years. And it makes sense based on the graph above.

That means if you want more options to choose from, now’s the time to look.

And if you’re wondering: why the pullback? It’s simple. Since there are already more new homes for sale than usual, builders want to focus on selling down the supply they already have on the market rather than adding more new homes. And that leads to point two.

2. Builder Incentives Just Hit an All-Time High

Here’s where things get even better for buyers. To make sure the inventory they have now keeps moving, builders are offering incentives at levels not seen in years – and many of those perks directly help buyers with affordability. Buyers today are getting:

  • Lower Prices: Builders are dropping the prices on their brand-new homes to draw in buyers.
  • Help with Closing Costs: Some builders are covering thousands of dollars in fees to reduce the upfront cost of buying.
  • Extra Upgrades: Think premium finishes, appliance packages, and designer features, all added at no extra cost.
  • Mortgage Rate Buydowns: This is when the builder pays to get you a lower mortgage rate, which reduces your monthly payments and helps with affordability.

But you don’t have to be lucky to see these types of perks. The truth is, the vast majority of builders are offering advantages like these right now. According to the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) 65% of builders say they’re using some type of sales incentive and:

“. . . 41% of builders reported cutting prices in November, a record high in the post-Covid period and the first time this measure has passed 40%.”

a graph of a number of blue barsThat’s a big deal. It shows how willing builders are to negotiate right now.

And if you look closely at the graph, you’ll notice the use of incentives typically falls in the early part of the year, as buyer demand rises going into the spring. So, you have an edge if you act now. This may be your ideal window to find the most options and better prices.

If you lean on your own agent and you’re savvy about what you ask for, you could walk away with some of the best perks buyers have seen in years. And when every dollar counts and any incentive helps your bottom line, that’s worth looking into. 

More options and more savings = an offer too good to pass up.

Bottom Line

With most builders offering generous incentives and a wider selection of new homes for sale, buyers may be looking at one of the best times in years to buy a new build.

Connect with a local agent if you want to know which communities, builders, and incentives offer the most value today. Having your own agent (not the builder’s representative) makes the sale and negotiation process that much easier for you.

If you could have a brand-new home for less than you may expect, would you be interested?

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.