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What’s Happening with Home Prices?

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Many people have questions about home prices right now. How much have prices risen over the past 12 months? What’s happening with home values right now? What’s projected for next year? Here’s a look at the answers to all three of these questions.

How much have home values appreciated over the last 12 months?

According to the latest Home Price Index from CoreLogic, home values have increased by 18.1% compared to this time last year. Additionally, prices have gone up at an accelerated pace for each of the last eight months (see graph below):What’s Happening with Home Prices? | Simplifying The MarketThe increase in the rate of appreciation that’s shown by CoreLogic coincides with data from the other two main home price indices: the FHFA Home Price Index and the S&P Case Shiller Index.

The last year has shown tremendous home price appreciation, which is resulting in a major gain in wealth for homeowners through rising equity.

What’s happening with home prices right now?

All three indices mentioned above also show that while appreciation is in the high double digits right now, that price acceleration is beginning to level off (see graph below):What’s Happening with Home Prices? | Simplifying The MarketYear-over-year appreciation is still close to 20%, but it’s clearly plateauing at that rate. Many experts believe it will drop below 15% by the end of the year.

Keep in mind, that doesn’t mean home values will depreciate. It means the rate of appreciation will slow, yet stay well above the 25-year average of 5.1%.

What about next year?

The recent surge in prices is the result of heavy buyer demand and a shortage of homes available for sale. Most experts believe that as more housing inventory comes to market (both new construction and existing homes), the supply and demand for housing will come more into balance. That balance will bring a lower rate of appreciation in 2022. Here’s a look at home price forecasts from six major entities, and they all project future appreciation:

  1. Fannie Mae
  2. Freddie Mac
  3. Mortgage Bankers Association
  4. Home Price Expectation Survey
  5. Zelman & Associates
  6. National Association of Realtors

What’s Happening with Home Prices? | Simplifying The MarketWhile the projected rate of appreciation varies among the experts, due to things like supply chain challenges, virus variants, and more, it’s clear that home values will continue to appreciate next year.

Bottom Line

There have been historic levels of home price appreciation over the last year. That pace will slow as we finish 2021 and enter into 2022. Prices will still rise in value, just at a much more moderate pace, which is good news for the housing market.

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Downsize

Why So Many People Are Thankful They Bought a Home This Year

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Homebuyers are weighing their options right now, and they certainly have a lot on their minds. With everything going on in the job market, the economy, and more – there’s a lot to think about these days. And maybe that’s making you wonder if it really makes sense to buy a home right now.

But here’s what many recent buyers would tell you: even with all that, making a move is worth it.

And this is why they’re thankful they went ahead and took the plunge already. Life doesn’t wait for better market conditions. So, your decision shouldn’t be about trying to time the market perfectly. It should be about moving when the time is right for you and what you need – and it’s different for everyone.

The Real Reasons People Bought a Home

According to the latest report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), what’s really driving today’s moves is the desire for something better or something different. It’s a personal motivator or a change in what they need out of the home that pushed buyers to act this year (see chart below):

a graph of a number of peopleFor some, that meant trading an apartment for their very first house – a home they can finally make their own, where they can paint the walls, plant the garden, and build a future.

For others, it meant getting closer to the people who matter most. Living near family or friends isn’t just convenient, it changes your everyday life. Sunday dinners, quick visits, extra help when you need it – that kind of connection is priceless.

And for many buyers, it’s the peace of finding a home that finally fits. It’s finally having space to grow: a bigger kitchen for family dinners, or bedrooms where kids can decorate their own walls and carve out their own corners of the world.

Or, it’s about simplifying. Downsizing to something smaller, easier to maintain, and closer to what matters most can make everyday life feel lighter and less stressful.

What You Miss Out on If You Try To Time the Market

No matter the reason, these buyers all share something in common: they stopped waiting for perfect timing and focused on creating the life they wanted now. And if you asked them, odds are they’d say that decision is paying off every day.

That’s what makes a move meaningful. Not the market conditions, but the freedom and happiness that come from living in a home that truly fits. So, while headlines may keep everyone guessing, the people who’ve already made their move are sleeping better, living fuller, and enjoying homes that finally feel right.

Because once your home finally matches your life, everything else starts to fall into place. And that’s exactly how you deserve to feel. 

Bottom Line

The people who bought a home this year didn’t wait for perfect market conditions to line up. They acted on what they needed in their life. And they’re thankful they did.

If you’re feeling the pull toward something better, talk to an agent about your goals. Your next home could bring you more space, more connection, and more happiness than you think.

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Affordability

Why Buying a Home Still Pays Off in the Long Run

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Renting can feel much less expensive and much simpler than buying a home, especially right now. No repairs, no property taxes, no worrying about mortgage rates – you just pay the bill and move on with your life.

But here’s the part people don’t talk about enough: renting doesn’t help you build your financial future. Meanwhile, homeowners grow their net worth just by owning a home.

So, if you’ve been wondering whether buying is still worth it, the long-term math is clearer than you might think.

Renting vs. Owning: How the Costs Really Compare

Let’s break down one of the key differences between renting and buying. When you rent, your payment goes to your landlord, and then it’s gone. When you own, part of your payment comes back to you in the form of equity (the wealth you build as the value of your home increases, and you pay down your home loan).

So, while renting may seem more affordable now, you have to remember it comes at a long-term cost: you’re not building your wealth. And it turns out, that’s a bigger miss than you may expect.

First American recently analyzed the long-term financial impact of renting versus owning a home. They compared mortgage payments, property tax, insurance, repairs, and maintenance against the equity gained through home price appreciation and paying down the mortgage. And they did that during several different time frames to see if it tells a consistent story:

  • 2006: the start of the housing bubble
  • 2015: 10 years ago
  • 2019: just before the pandemic (the last normal years in the market)
  • 2022: when mortgage rates jumped

In each time frame, two things were true: renters ended up losing money over time. And homeowners gained it.

Here’s some data so you can see this play out. Each color represents one of the key time frames. The solid lines show the buyer’s investment over time and how their net worth actually grew the longer they lived in their home. The dashed line represents the renter’s investment. In the end, they sank more and more cash into renting without gaining any financial benefit.

a graph of a graph showing the impact of owning vs renters lossThe takeaway is simple: time in a home builds wealth. Time renting doesn’t.

Basically, homeowners come out ahead. And the analysis shows that’s even after you factor in the other expenses that come with homeownership, like insurance, repairs, and property taxes. And that’s the case for every time frame First American looked into.

On the flip side, renters spent money on their rent, but didn’t gain any long-term financial benefit. That’s true no matter what window of time you look at in the study.

Now, that doesn’t mean buying always beats renting in the short term. But the longer you own, the wider the wealth gap becomes.

Affordability Is Starting To Improve

You might still be thinking, “Okay, but buying feels out of reach for me right now.” Fair.

The past few years haven’t been easy for buyers. But things are starting to shift. Mortgage rates have come down this year, home prices are softening, and incomes have been rising. And according to Zillow, typical monthly payments have gotten a little easier compared to this time last year. Not by a lot, but enough to make a difference.

No, buying isn’t suddenly easy. But it is easier than it was just a few months ago. And in the long run, history shows it’s worth it. 

Bottom Line

Renting may feel less expensive today, but owning is what builds real wealth over time. And with affordability starting to improve, the path to homeownership may be opening up more than you think.

If you’re curious what buying could look like for you, connect with a local real estate who can help you plan your next move, pressure-free.

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Buying Tips

Most Experts Are Not Worried About a Recession

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Homebuyers are watching the economy closely, and for good reason. Buying a home is one of the biggest purchases most people ever make. And some recession talk in the media has made a lot of would-be buyers second guess their plans.

In the latest LendingTree survey, almost 2 in 3 Americans said they think a recession is coming. And 74% of respondents say that’s having an impact on their financial decisions.

But here’s the good news: the experts aren’t nearly as concerned.

Most Americans Expect a Recession, But Most Experts Don’t

According to an October report from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), only 1 in 3 experts surveyed say we may be headed for a recession sometime in the next 12 months (see graph below):

a blue and grey pie chartIf the expert economists aren’t super worried, should you be? We’re not in a recession right now. And there’s no guarantee we’re heading into one.

What we do have is uncertainty – and the best way to handle that is by leaning on facts, not fear. You can do that by making sure you have the information you need to make an informed decision.

Tips for Buying a Home During Periods of Economic Uncertainty

Here’s the best advice anyone can give right now. While it’s important to keep an eye on what’s happening in the economy, that shouldn’t necessarily overshadow your real-life needs. Economic shifts come and go, but the reasons people buy homes rarely change. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, explains:

“Well-prepared buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines are likely motivated by personal and lifestyle needs like growing families, new jobs, or retirement. And these considerations can outweigh short-term economic uncertainties . . . ”

Timing your move around real life (not the news cycle) is what matters most.

But here’s the key. If you’re going to buy a home right now, job stability really matters. You need to feel confident in your income and know you can comfortably manage your mortgage payments, even if your situation or the economy shift.

If your job is secure and you’ve built a cushion of savings, experts say you don’t necessarily need to delay. Just keep these tips from the economists at Redfin in mind:

  • Set a budget and stick to it: Don’t overextend. Make sure your payments are affordable and your savings can cover any surprises. This includes factoring in costs likely to rise, like home insurance and taxes.
  • Negotiate: There are more homes for sale right now, and other buyers may pull back because of their own fears. That gives you more negotiating power when working with sellers. Use it to get the best deal possible.
  • Be strategic about payments and mortgage rates: Talk to lenders about what payment you can afford and the rate you can qualify for today, as well as your options if rates go down later on.
  • Consider selling before you buy: If you already own a home, selling first can reduce the financial pressure and help solidify your budget for your next home.

But nothing replaces the value of having a trusted team around you, especially right now. As Bankrate says:

“Buying a home during a recession can sometimes be a good idea – but only for people who are lucky enough to remain financially stable . . . Be sure to enlist the help of an experienced local real estate agent. Not only do agents know their markets well, they will also work to get you the best deal in any given situation, including a recession.”

Bottom Line

Most Americans think a recession is coming. But most experts don’t.

So, you don’t necessarily have to put your moving plans on hold. If your finances are solid, your job is stable, and you have a real need to move, you can still make this happen. You just need the right team of pros by your side. 

What’s holding you back from making your next move? Connect with a local agent and lender to talk it over.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.