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For Buyers

What’s Happening with Home Prices?

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Many people have questions about home prices right now. How much have prices risen over the past 12 months? What’s happening with home values right now? What’s projected for next year? Here’s a look at the answers to all three of these questions.

How much have home values appreciated over the last 12 months?

According to the latest Home Price Index from CoreLogic, home values have increased by 18.1% compared to this time last year. Additionally, prices have gone up at an accelerated pace for each of the last eight months (see graph below):What’s Happening with Home Prices? | Simplifying The MarketThe increase in the rate of appreciation that’s shown by CoreLogic coincides with data from the other two main home price indices: the FHFA Home Price Index and the S&P Case Shiller Index.

The last year has shown tremendous home price appreciation, which is resulting in a major gain in wealth for homeowners through rising equity.

What’s happening with home prices right now?

All three indices mentioned above also show that while appreciation is in the high double digits right now, that price acceleration is beginning to level off (see graph below):What’s Happening with Home Prices? | Simplifying The MarketYear-over-year appreciation is still close to 20%, but it’s clearly plateauing at that rate. Many experts believe it will drop below 15% by the end of the year.

Keep in mind, that doesn’t mean home values will depreciate. It means the rate of appreciation will slow, yet stay well above the 25-year average of 5.1%.

What about next year?

The recent surge in prices is the result of heavy buyer demand and a shortage of homes available for sale. Most experts believe that as more housing inventory comes to market (both new construction and existing homes), the supply and demand for housing will come more into balance. That balance will bring a lower rate of appreciation in 2022. Here’s a look at home price forecasts from six major entities, and they all project future appreciation:

  1. Fannie Mae
  2. Freddie Mac
  3. Mortgage Bankers Association
  4. Home Price Expectation Survey
  5. Zelman & Associates
  6. National Association of Realtors

What’s Happening with Home Prices? | Simplifying The MarketWhile the projected rate of appreciation varies among the experts, due to things like supply chain challenges, virus variants, and more, it’s clear that home values will continue to appreciate next year.

Bottom Line

There have been historic levels of home price appreciation over the last year. That pace will slow as we finish 2021 and enter into 2022. Prices will still rise in value, just at a much more moderate pace, which is good news for the housing market.

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Affordability

The 20% Down Payment Myth, Debunked

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Saving up to buy a home can feel a little intimidating, especially right now. And for many first-time buyers, the idea that you have to put 20% down can feel like a major roadblock.

But that’s actually a common misconception. Here’s the truth.

Do You Really Have To Put 20% Down When You Buy a Home?

Unless your specific loan type or lender requires it, odds are you won’t have to put 20% down. There are loan options out there designed to help first-time buyers like you get in the door with a much smaller down payment.

For example, FHA loans offer down payments as low as 3.5%, while VA and USDA loans have no down payment requirements for qualified applicants, like Veterans. So, while putting down more money does have its benefits, it’s not essential. As The Mortgage Reports says:

“. . . many homebuyers are able to secure a home with as little as 3% or even no down payment at all . . . the 20 percent down rule is really a myth.

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the median down payment is a lot lower for first-time homebuyers at just 9% (see chart below):

The takeaway? You may not need to save as much as you originally thought.  

And the best part is, there are also a lot of programs out there designed to give your down payment savings a boost. And chances are, you’re not even aware they’re an option.

Why You Should Look into Down Payment Assistance Programs

Believe it or not, almost 80% of first-time homebuyers qualify for down payment assistance (DPA), but only 13% actually use it (see chart below):

a blue and orange pie chartThat’s a lot of missed opportunity. These programs aren’t small-scale help, either. Some offer thousands of dollars that can go directly toward your down payment. As Rob Chrane, Founder and CEO of Down Payment Resource, shares:

Our data shows the average DPA benefit is roughly $17,000. That can be a nice jump-start for saving for a down payment and other costs of homeownership.”

Imagine how much further your homebuying savings would go if you were able to qualify for $17,000 worth of help. In some cases, you may even be able to stack multiple programs at once, giving what you’ve saved an even bigger lift. These are the type of benefits you don’t want to leave on the table. 

Bottom Line

Saving up for your first home can feel like a lot, especially if you’re still thinking you have to put 20% down. The truth is that’s a common myth. Many loan options require much less, and there are even programs out there designed to boost your savings too.

To learn more about what’s available and if you’d qualify for any down payment assistance programs, talk to a trusted lender.

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Economy

What an Economic Slowdown Could Mean for the Housing Market

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Talk about the economy is all over the news, and the odds of a recession are rising this year. That’s leaving a lot of people wondering what it means for the value of their home – and their buying power.

Let’s take a look at some historical data to show what’s happened in the housing market during each recession, going all the way back to the 1980s. The facts may surprise you.

A Recession Doesn’t Mean Home Prices Will Fall

Many people think that if a recession hits, home prices will fall like they did in 2008. But that was an exception, not the rule. It was the only time the market saw such a steep drop in prices. And it hasn’t happened since, mainly because inventory is still so low overall. Even in markets where the number of homes for sale has started to rise this year, inventory is still far below the oversupply of homes that led up to the housing crash.

In fact, according to data from Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), in four of the last six recessions, home prices actually went up (see graph below)

a graph of a graph showing the price of falling pricesSo, don’t assume a recession will lead to a significant drop in home values. The data simply doesn’t support that idea. Instead, home prices usually follow whatever trajectory they’re already on. And right now, nationally, home prices are still rising, just at a more normal pace.

Mortgage Rates Typically Decline During Recessions

While home prices tend to stay on their current path, mortgage rates usually drop during economic slowdowns. Again, looking at data from the last six recessions, mortgage rates fell each time (see graph below):

a graph of a graph showing the rise of mortgage ratesSo, a recession means rates could decline. And while that would help with your buying power, don’t expect the return of a 3% rate.

Bottom Line

The answer to the recession question is still unknown, but the odds have gone up. However, that doesn’t mean you have to worry about what it means for the housing market – or the value of your home. Historical data tells us what usually happens.

If you’re wondering how the current economy is impacting your local market, connect with an agent.

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For Buyers

A Tale of Two Housing Markets

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For a long time, the housing market was all sunshine for sellers. Homes were flying off the shelves, and buyers had to compete like crazy. But lately, things are starting to shift. Some areas are still super competitive for buyers, while others are seeing more homes sit on the market, giving buyers a bit more breathing room.

In other words, it’s a tale of two markets, and knowing which one you’re in makes a huge difference when you move.

What Is a Buyer’s Market vs. a Seller’s Market?

In a buyer’s market, there are a lot of homes for sale, and not as many people buying. With fewer buyers competing for these homes, that means they generally sit on the market longer, they might not sell for as much as they would in a seller’s market, and buyers have more room to negotiate.

On the flip side, in a seller’s market, there aren’t enough homes for sale for the number of buyers who are trying to purchase them. Homes sell faster, sellers often get multiple offers, and prices shoot higher because buyers are willing to pay more to win the home.

The Market Is Starting To Balance Out

For years, almost every market in the country was a strong seller’s market. That made it tough for buyers – especially first-timers. But now, things are shifting. According to Zillow, the national housing market is balancing out (see graph below):

a graph of a marketThe index used in this graph measures whether the national housing market is more of a seller’s market, buyer’s market, or neutral market – basically, whether it favors buyers, sellers, or if it’s not really swinging either way. Each month, the market is measured between 0 and 100. The closer to 100, the bigger the advantage sellers have.

The orange bars in the middle of the graph show the years when sellers had their strongest advantage, from 2020 to early 2022. But, as time has gone on, the market has become more balanced. It shifted from a strong seller’s market to a less intense one. And lately, it’s been neutral more than anything else (that’s the gray bars on the right side of the graph). That means buyers are gaining some negotiating power again.

In a more balanced or neutral market, homes tend to stay on the market a little longer, bidding wars are less common, and sellers may need to make more concessions – like price reductions or helping with closing costs. That shift gives today’s buyers more opportunities and less competition than a couple of years ago.

Why Are Things Changing?

Inventory plays a big role. When there are more homes for sale, buyers have more options – and that cools down home price growth. As data from Realtor.com shows, the supply of available homes for sale isn’t growing at the same rate everywhere (see graph below):

a graph of a number of barsThis graph shows how inventory has changed compared to last year (blue bars) and compared to 2017–2019 (red bars) in different regions of the country.

The South and West regions of the U.S. have seen big jumps in housing inventory in the past year (that’s the blue on the right). Both are almost back to pre-pandemic levels. That’s why more buyer’s markets are popping up there.

But in the Northeast and Midwest, inventory is still very low compared to pre-pandemic (that’s why those red bars are so big). That means those areas are more likely to stay seller’s markets for now.

What This Means for You

Every local market is different. Even if the national headlines say one thing, your town (or even your neighborhood) could be telling a totally different story.

Knowing which type of market you’re in helps you make smarter decisions for your move. That’s why working with a local real estate agent is so important right now.

As Zillow says:

“Agents are experts on their local markets and can craft buying or selling strategies tailored to local market conditions.”

Agents understand the unique trends in your area and can help you make the best choices, whether you’re buying or selling. With their expert strategies, you can move no matter which way the market is leaning, because they know how to navigate various levels of buyer competition, how to find hidden gems locally, how to price a house right, how to negotiate based on who has more leverage, and more.

Bottom Line

If you’re ready to make a move, or even just thinking about it, connect with a local real estate agent. They’d love to help you understand your local market and create a game plan that works for you.

What’s one thing you’re curious about when it comes to the market in your area?

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The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, Landshark Mark, LLC and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.