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For Buyers

2 of the Factors That Impact Mortgage Rates

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If you’re looking to buy a home, you’ve probably been paying close attention to mortgage rates. Over the last couple of years, they hit record lows, rose dramatically, and are now dropping back down a bit. Ever wonder why?

The answer is complicated because there’s a lot that can influence mortgage rates. Here are just a few of the most impactful factors at play.

Inflation and the Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve (Fed) doesn’t directly determine mortgage rates. But the Fed does move the Federal Funds Rate up or down in response to what’s happening with inflation, the economy, employment rates, and more. As that happens, mortgage rates tend to respond. Business Insider explains:

The Federal Reserve slows inflation by raising the federal funds rate, which can indirectly impact mortgages. High inflation and investor expectations of more Fed rate hikes can push mortgage rates up. If investors believe the Fed may cut rates and inflation is decelerating, mortgage rates will typically trend down.”

Over the last couple of years, the Fed raised the Federal Fund Rate to try to fight inflation and, as that happened, mortgage rates jumped up, too. Fortunately, the expert outlook for inflation and mortgage rates is that both should become more favorable over the course of the year. As Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, says:

“[M]ortgage rates will continue to ease in 2024 as inflation improves . . .”

There’s even talk the Fed may actually cut the Fed Funds Rate this year because inflation is cooling, even though it’s not yet back to their ideal target.

The 10-Year Treasury Yield

Additionally, mortgage companies look at the 10-Year Treasury Yield to decide how much interest to charge on home loans. If the yield goes up, mortgage rates usually go up, too. The opposite is also true. According to Investopedia:

“One frequently used government bond benchmark to which mortgage lenders often peg their interest rates is the 10-year Treasury bond yield.”

Historically, the spread between the 10-Year Treasury Yield and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has been fairly consistent, but that’s not the case recently. That means, there’s room for mortgage rates to come down. So, keeping an eye on which way the treasury yield is trending can give experts an idea of where mortgage rates may head next.

Bottom Line

With the Fed meeting later this week, experts in the industry will be keeping a close watch to see what they decide and what impact it’ll have on the economy. To navigate any mortgage rate changes and their impact on your moving plans, it’s best to have a team of professionals on your side.

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Affordability

Thinking About Tapping into Your 401(k) To Buy a Home? Read This First.

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Lately, headlines have floated an eye-catching idea about tapping into your 401(k) to cover a down payment on a home. Maybe you’ve caught the buzz and wondered whether that money could get you into a home faster, especially with affordability as tough as it is. 

Here’s what you need to remember. Pulling from your retirement savings is a big decision, so take time to weigh all your options first and be sure to talk with a financial expert before you do anything.

Why Dipping into a 401(k) Can Be Tempting

Data from Empower shows many Americans have built up considerable retirement savings. The median 401(k) amount for anyone in their 40s-60s is six figures (see graph below):

a graph of green barsAnd when you’ve got a good chunk saved and your dream home is right there, reaching for it can feel like an easy call.

But dipping into your retirement savings to buy a home could cost you a penalty and set back your finances later on. That’s why it’s a good idea to explore other options for your down payment first. As Redfin says: 

If you’re struggling to save enough for a down payment, you may be wondering if tapping into your 401(k) is the right option. While it’s possible, doing so comes with significant risks, like early withdrawal penalties and lost investment growth.

Before you decide, have a financial advisor help you compare the upsides to the risks. Bankrate points to a few of each (see visual):

a screenshot of a computer screen

Other Options Worth Exploring First

Your 401(k) isn’t the only way to finance a home purchase. Redfin outlines a few other options to look into before you decide what to do:

  • Low and No-Down Payment Loans: FHA loans, for example, allow qualified buyers to put down as little as 3.5% of the home’s price, depending on their credit scores.

  • Down Payment Assistance Programs: Many national and local programs can help reduce what you pay toward your down payment or closing costs.

Make a Plan Before You Make a Move

No matter which route you take, talk with a financial expert first. The buyers who come out ahead build a solid plan with the right professionals before starting their journey to homeownership. As NerdWallet puts it:

Even if you’re convinced a 401(k) loan is the way to go, it’s important to understand the risks at the outset.

Bottom Line

Affordability is definitely a challenge, but that doesn’t mean tapping your 401(k) is your only way in if you want to buy.

If you’re considering using your 401(k) savings for a down payment, weigh all your options and talk with a trusted financial advisor before you make any decisions. They’ll help you make a plan to fit your goals and your budget. 

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Affordability

Sellers Are Cutting Prices To Meet Buyers Where They’re At

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You’re scrolling through listings on your phone and everything looks good until you see the price (or the estimated monthly payment). Then you close the app. 

Because even if you love the house, the numbers feel impossible. But here’s the thing.

Nationally, there are more homes sitting on the market than there are people out there looking. And when sellers need buyers more than buyers need sellers, that shows up in the price.

Lower asking prices. More price cuts. And homes priced for what buyers can actually afford – not what sellers hope someone might pay.

And it may be enough to make buying more doable than you’d think. 

4 Out of 10 Sellers Are Cutting Their Price 

One of the clearest signs sellers are adjusting? Price cuts. HousingWire Data shows more than 40% of sellers are dropping this price.

That’s just slightly behind the volume we saw last year (see graph below):

a graph of a price reduction

That’s more than 4 out of every 10 homes listed. Think about what that means. That’s thousands of sellers deciding they’d rather lower their asking price than keep waiting for someone willing to stretch their budget. 

They know that to sell, they have to be willing to do some give and take. And when no buyers are biting, they’re pulling their biggest lever to draw buyers back in – their price. As Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, explains:

“This is a market where people are adjusting and showing up rather than giving up. Sellers are meeting the market with more realistic asking prices, which is helping deals get done.”

This July Saw the Lowest Median List Price for Any July in Five Years

What about the other 6 in 10 sellers? A lot of them started with a lower asking price to begin with rather than test the higher price and get crickets from buyers.

That may be why July 2026 had the lowest median list price of any July in the past five years, according to Realtor.com (see the white line in the graph below):

a graph of sales and prices

Now, that doesn’t mean home values are falling or that everything’s suddenly a steal. Prices are still above where they were before the pandemic. But what it does mean is this.

Sellers no longer banking on bidding wars or expecting buyers to pay whatever they ask. Instead, many are listing at prices that better reflect today’s market from the very beginning. 

And honestly, whether they’re pricing competitively from day one or adjusting after a few weeks on the market, the message for you is the same:

Sellers are more willing to meet you where you’re at.

Because in many markets throughout the country, you’re not fighting over a house anymore. Sellers are fighting over you. And that’s information you can use to get a better deal.

Yes, affordability can be a real challenge. And the monthly payment you take on definitely does matter. But if you’ve been assuming everything is out of budget, there may be more wiggle room than you think.

Bottom Line

Right now, sellers are flexible on the price in ways they weren’t before. Reach out to a local agent to take advantage of that flexibility.

You may be surprised by what’s available – and how willing today’s sellers are to work with buyers.

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For Buyers

Worried About a Housing Crash? The Numbers Tell a Calmer Story.

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A recent survey from Talker Research asked Americans to pick one word to describe how 2026 has felt so far. The winner? Stressful. And honestly, there’s been a lot going on.

So, it’s understandable if you’ve been putting off buying or selling a home until things settle down. But you may be waiting on something that’s already happened. While everything else has felt shaky, the housing market has become one of the steadiest things out there. Look at the data.

Home Prices Have Leveled Out

After years of fast increases, data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows home prices have been remarkably steady for the past 4 years (see graph below):

a graph of blue linesAnd experts say that’s what to expect going forward, too. As Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at Cotality, explains:

“In 2026, we expect home prices to remain broadly stable, with modest appreciation at a national level.”

No wild swings. Just slow, steady growth. That’s a healthy market. Of course, that pace can vary a bit depending on where you live. But nationally, steady growth like this makes it easier to plan your budget, whether you’re buying or selling.

The Supply of Homes for Sale Has Steadied

For years, the supply of homes for sale was a moving target. It dropped fast during the pandemic and has been climbing pretty reliably ever since. Now, that pace of growth has slowed down. According to Realtor.com, inventory today is very close to where it was this time last year (see graph below): 

a graph of blue linesThat’s helpful no matter which side you’re on. When the number of homes for sale isn’t changing much, you know what you’re walking into – how many options you’ll have as a buyer, and how much competition you’ll face as a seller.

Mortgage Rates Found Their Range

Yes, rates jumped dramatically back in 2022. But since then, Freddie Mac data shows they’ve stayed between 6% and 7% for the better part of the last 3 or so years (see graph below):

a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph ofYes, there was one brief spike above that threshold, but overall, rates have stayed in that range for a while now. That predictability helps when you’re planning a move. 

And now that this seems to be a longer-term trend, people have accepted it as the new normal. Buyers have gotten comfortable purchasing in that range, and sellers have gotten just as comfortable listing in it.

That comfort’s important because when both sides know what to expect, they keep making moves. In other words, the market isn’t frozen waiting for something to change. It’s moving calmly.

Bottom Line

The rest of the world may feel unpredictable right now, but the housing market doesn’t have to. Prices, inventory, and rates have all found solid ground.

If stability is what you’ve been waiting for, it’s already here. Connect with a local real estate agent if you want to talk through what that means for your move.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.