Home Prices
What You Really Need To Know About Home Prices
According to recent data from Fannie Mae, almost 1 in 4 people still think home prices are going to come down. If you’re one of the people worried about that, here’s what you need to know.
A lot of that fear is probably coming from what you’re hearing in the media or reading online. But here’s the thing to remember. Negative news sells. That means, you may not be getting the full picture. You may only be getting the clickbait version. As Jay Thompson, a Real Estate Industry Consultant, explains:
“Housing market headlines are everywhere. Many are quite sensational, ending with exclamation points or predicting impending doom for the industry. Clickbait, the sensationalizing of headlines and content, has been an issue since the dawn of the internet, and housing news is not immune to it.”
Here’s a look at the data to set the record straight.
Home Prices Rose the Majority of the Past Year
Case-Shiller releases a report each month on the percent of monthly home price changes. If you look at their data from January 2023 through the latest numbers available, here’s what you’d see:
What do you notice when you look at this graph? It depends on what color you’re more drawn to. If you look at the green, you’ll see home prices rose for the majority of the past year.
But, if you’re drawn to the red, you may only focus on the two slight declines. This is what a lot of media coverage does. Since negative news sells, drawing attention to these slight dips happens often. But that loses sight of the bigger picture.
Here’s what this data really says. There’s a lot more green in that graph than red. And even for the two red bars, they’re so slight, they’re practically flat. If you look at the year as a whole, home prices still rose overall.
It’s perfectly normal in the housing market for home price growth to slow down in the winter. That’s because fewer people move during the holidays and at the start of the year, so there’s not as much upward pressure on home prices during that time. That’s why, even the green bars toward the end of the year show smaller price gains.
The overarching story is that prices went up last year, not down.
To sum all that up, the source for that data in the graph above, Case Shiller, explains it like this:
“Month-over-month numbers were relatively flat, . . . However, the annual growth was more significant for both indices, rising 7.4 percent and 6.6 percent, respectively.”
If one of the expert organizations tracking home price trends says the very slight dips are nothing to worry about, why be concerned? Even Case-Shiller is drawing your attention to how those were virtually flat and how home prices actually grew over the year.
Bottom Line
The data shows that, as a whole, home prices rose over the past year. If you have questions about what’s happening with home prices in your local area, connect with a trusted real estate professional.
There are more homes on the market right now than there have been in years – and that could be a game changer for you if you’re ready to buy. Let’s look at two reasons why.
You Have More Options To Choose From
An article from Realtor.com helps explain just how much the number of homes for sale has gone up this year:
“There were 29.2% more homes actively for sale on a typical day in October compared with the same time in 2023, marking the twelfth consecutive month of annual inventory growth and the highest count since December 2019.”
And while the number of homes on the market still isn’t quite back to where it was in the years leading up to the pandemic, this is definitely an improvement (see graph below):
With more homes available for sale now, you have more options to choose from. As Hannah Jones, Senior Economic Research Analyst at Realtor.com, explains:
“Though still lower than pre-pandemic, burgeoning home supply means buyers have more options . . .”
That means you have a better chance of finding a house that meets your needs. It also means the buying process doesn’t have to feel quite as rushed, because more options on the market means you’ll likely face less competition from other buyers.
Home Price Growth Is Slowing
When there aren’t many homes for sale, buyers have to compete more fiercely for the ones that are available. That’s what happened a few years ago, and it’s what drove prices up so quickly.
But now, the increasing number of homes on the market is causing home price growth to slow down (see graph below):
In certain markets, the number of available homes has not only bounced back to normal, but has even surpassed pre-pandemic levels. In those areas, home price growth has slowed or stalled completely. As Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub, explains:
“Generally speaking, housing markets where active inventory has returned to pre-pandemic 2019 levels have seen home price growth soften or even decline outright from their 2022 peak.”
Slower or stalled price growth could give you a better chance of finding something within your budget. As Dr. Anju Vajja, Deputy Director at the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), says:
“For the third consecutive month U.S. house prices showed little movement . . . relatively flat house prices may improve housing affordability.”
But remember, inventory levels and home prices are going to vary by market.
So, having a real estate agent who knows the local area can be a big advantage. They can help you understand the trends in your community, which can make a real difference in finding a home that fits your needs and budget.
Bottom Line
More housing options – and the slower home price growth they bring – can help you find and buy a home that works for your lifestyle and budget. So don’t hesitate to reach out to a local real estate agent if you want to talk about the growing number of choices you have right now.
Some Highlights
- The #1 task sellers struggle with is setting the right asking price for their house.
- Without an agent’s help, you may set a price that turns away buyers and takes a long time to sell.
- To make sure your house is priced right, connect with a local agent. Because if the price isn’t compelling, it’s not selling.
Some Highlights
- Even if you’re not looking to move right away, you may have questions about how the election will impact the housing market.
- When we look at historical trends, combined with what’s happening right now, we can find your answers. Based on historical data, mortgage rates decrease in the months before and home prices and sales increase the year after the election.
- The facts show Presidential elections only have a small and temporary impact on the housing market.
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