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Economy

Why Home Sales Bounce Back After Presidential Elections

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With the 2024 Presidential election fast approaching, you might be wondering what impact, if any, it’s having on the housing market. Let’s break it down.

Election Years Bring a Temporary Slowdown

In any given year, home sales slow down slightly in the fall. It’s a typical, seasonal trend. However, according to data from BTIG, in election years there’s usually a slightly larger dip in home sales in the month leading up to Election Day (see graph below):

a graph of a person with an orange squareWhy? Uncertainty. Many consumers hold off on making major decisions or purchases while they wait to see how the election will play out. It’s a pattern that’s shown up time and time again, and it’s particularly apparent for buyers and sellers in the housing market.

This year is no different. A recent survey from Redfin found that 23% of potential first-time homebuyers said they’re waiting until after the election to buy. That’s nearly a quarter of first-time buyers hitting the pause button, likely due to the same feelings of uncertainty.

Home Sales Bounce Back After the Election

The good news is these delayed sales aren’t lost forever—they’re just postponed. History shows sales tend to rebound after the election is over. In fact, home sales have actually increased 82% of the time in the year after the election (see chart below):

a blue and white chart with numbersThat’s because once the election dust settles, buyers and sellers have a sense of what’s ahead and generally feel more confident moving forward with their decisions. And that leads to a boost in home sales.

What To Expect in 2025

If history is any indicator, that means more homes will sell next year. And based on the latest forecasts, that’s exactly what you should expect. As the graph below shows, the housing market is on pace to sell a total of 4.6 million homes this year, and projections are for 5.2 million total sales next year (see graph below):

a graph showing the sales of a companyAnd that aligns with the typical pattern of post-election rebounds.

So, while it might feel like the market is slowing down right now, it’s more of a temporary dip rather than a long-term trend. As has been the case before, once the election uncertainty passes, buyers and sellers will return to the market.

Bottom Line

It’s important to remember that while election years often bring a short-term slowdown in the housing market, the pause is usually temporary. Those sales are not lost. Data shows home sales typically increase the year after a Presidential election, and current forecasts indicate 2025 will be no different. If you’re waiting for a clearer picture before making a move, just know that the market is expected to pick up speed in the months ahead.

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Economy

Do You Think the Housing Market’s About To Crash? Read This First

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Lately, it feels like a lot of people have been asking the same question: “Is the housing market about to crash?”

If you’ve been scrolling through social media or watching the news, you might have seen some pretty scary headlines yourself. That’s why it’s no surprise that, according to data from Clever Real Estate, 70% of Americans are worried about a housing crash in 2025.

But before you hit pause on your plans to buy or sell a home, take a deep breath. The truth is: the housing market isn’t about to crash – it’s just shifting. And that shift actually works in your favor.

Today’s Inventory Keeps the Housing Market from Crashing

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says:

There’s just generally not enough supply. There are more people than housing inventory. It’s Econ 101.”

Think about it. If there’s a shortage of something – like tickets to a popular concert – prices go up. That’s what’s been happening with homes. We still have a shortage of supply. Too many buyers and not enough homes push prices higher.

Check out the white line for 2025 in the graph below. Even though the number of homes for sale is climbing, data from Realtor.com shows we’re still well below normal levels (shown in gray):

a graph of sales and pricesThat ongoing low supply is what’s stopping home prices from dropping at the national level. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:

“… if there’s a shortage, prices simply cannot crash.”

More Homes for Sale Means Price Growth Is Easing

And, as more homes become available, that takes some of the intense upward pressure off home price growth – leading to healthier price appreciation.

So, while prices aren’t falling nationally, growing inventory means they also aren’t rising as fast as they were. What we’re seeing is price moderation (see graph below):

a graph of green barsAnd according to Freddie Mac, that moderation should continue through the rest of this year:

“In 2025, we expect the pace of house price appreciation to moderate from the levels seen in 2024, while still maintaining a positive trajectory.

Put simply, that means prices will continue going up in most areas, just not as quickly. That’s good news for anyone who’s been having trouble finding a home and feeling sticker shock from the rapid price appreciation of the past few years.

But of course, what’s happening with prices and inventory is going to vary by local market. So, talk to your agent to find out what’s happening where you live.

Bottom Line

Don’t let the talk scare you. Experts agree that a housing market crash is unlikely in 2025. As Business Insider reports:

 

. . . economists who study housing market conditions generally do not expect a crash in 2025 or beyond unless the economic outlook changes.”

 

Instead, we’re heading into a housing market that’s healthier and more balanced, with slower price growth and more opportunity.

 

Chat with a local real estate agent about what’s happening in your local market and how you can make the most of it.

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Economy

A Recession Doesn’t Mean a Housing Crisis

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a screenshot of a graph

Some Highlights

  • There’s a lot of talk about a recession lately and how the odds of one are rising. If you’re wondering what that means for the housing market, here’s what the data tells us.
  • While you may remember the price crash in 2008, that’s not the norm. Looking back all the way to 1980, home prices usually rise and mortgage rates tend to fall. 
  • If you have questions about buying or selling a home in today’s market, connect with a real estate agent.

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Downsize

Does Your Current Home Fit Your Retirement Plans?

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Retirement isn’t just a milestone. It’s the beginning of something really special. After years of hard work, it’s finally time to slow down, explore new passions, and live life on your own terms.

But with this exciting chapter comes some big choices. And one of the biggest is this: does your current home still make sense for the lifestyle (and budget) you want in this next phase of life?

That’s an especially important question right now. Just in the past five years, the cost of living has jumped by 23% according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). That’s based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is how changes are tracked in the average price consumers pay for goods and services (see graph below):

a graph with a line going upWhen you’re thinking about how to make your retirement savings last, those rising expenses matter. And if you’ve started to wonder whether your money will stretch as far as you need it to go, don’t worry. You may have more control than you think.

One way many retirees are protecting their savings is by relocating. Because your dollars do go further in some places.

Moving to an area with a lower cost of living can help you save on regular expenses like your housing, utilities, and taxes – especially if you downsize at the same time.

And that can free up room in your budget for the things that make retirement some of the best years of your life: travel, hobbies, spoiling your grandkids, or any of the other things you’ve been dreaming about doing in this next phase.

That’s not to say you have to move. It just means you’ll want to think about where you plan to live and make sure you’ve got enough savings to cover actually living there. It’s all about planning. As Go Banking Rates explains:

“How much you should have saved for retirement depends on a few key factors, including your location. Where you choose to spend your golden years is critical.”

And you don’t always have to go far. Sometimes it’s out of state, but other times moving to the suburbs instead of living near the city can make a big difference. And that’s worth thinking about as you plan for your next chapter.

Whether you’re considering downsizing, moving closer to your grandkids, or heading to an area where you can stretch your savings, a real estate agent can help. They’ll work with you to explore the options that make sense for your goals – and can help make selling your current house easier. They can also connect you with trusted agents in other parts of the country if you’re considering a big move.

Bottom Line

You’ve worked hard to build a future you can enjoy. If your current home or location no longer supports that, it may be time to explore what’s next. 

What does your ideal retirement look like? And could a move help make it even better? Connect with an agent to talk about how to make that vision a reality.

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The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, Landshark Mark, LLC and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.