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When Is the Perfect Time To Move?

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It’s easy to get caught up in the idea of waiting for the perfect moment to make your move – especially in today’s market. Maybe you’re holding out and hoping mortgage rates will drop, or that home prices will fall. But here’s what you need to realize: trying to time the market rarely works. And here’s why.

There is no perfect market.

No matter when you buy, there’s always some benefit and some sort of trade-off – and that’s not a bad thing. That’s just the reality of it. If you’re not sure you buy into that, think back to the last 5 years in housing.

Just a few years ago, mortgage rates hit a historic low. To take advantage of that, a ton of buyers rushed to buy a home and lock in those lower rates. The side effect? With such a big increase in how many buyers were purchasing, the homes on the market were snapped up fast. And since that resulted in so few homes left for sale, bidding wars became the norm and home prices went through the roof. Those buyers got a great rate, but they had other things to contend with.

Now, with higher rates and higher prices, it’s more expensive to buy. You can’t argue that. But at the same time, the number of homes for sale is at the highest point in several years. That means you have more options to choose from and you’ll be less likely to find yourself in a pull-out-all-the-stops bidding war. Again, there are benefits and trade-offs in any market.

So, if you have a reason to move and can afford to do so, you’ve got to take advantage of the trends that work in your favor and lean on a pro to help you navigate the rest. As Bankrate says:

“The complexities of the current conditions mean that, now more than ever, it’s smart to lean on the guidance of an experienced local real estate agent. If you want to enter the housing market in 2025, whether as a buyer or a seller, let a pro lead the way for you.”

While achieving your goals may feel like an uphill battle in today’s complex market, it is doable. But you’ll need the help of a trusted real estate agent and a lender.

Your agent will help you explore creative solutions – like looking into different housing types (like smaller condos), considering homes that need a little elbow grease, or casting a wider net for your search area. And your lender will walk you through different loan options and down payment assistance programs, so you know what you need to do to make the numbers work for you. As Yahoo Finance says:

“Buying a house at a time when both mortgage rates and home prices are favorable is a challenge. You probably shouldn’t try to time the housing market . . . Buy when it makes sense for you personally.”

Bottom Line

There’s no perfect time to move – every market has its pros and cons. The key is knowing how to make the most of the factors working in your favor. By partnering with a trusted real estate agent and lender, you’ll have the guidance and tools to make a move possible.

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Affordability

What a Fed Rate Cut Could Mean for Mortgage Rates

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The Federal Reserve (the Fed) meets this week, and expectations are high that they’ll cut the Federal Funds Rate. But does that mean mortgage rates will drop? Let’s clear up the confusion.

The Fed Doesn’t Directly Set Mortgage Rates

Right now, all eyes are on the Fed. Most economists expect they’ll cut the Federal Funds Rate at their mid-September meeting to try to head off a potential recession.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are already betting on it. There’s virtually a 100% chance of a September cut. And based on what we know now, there’s about a 92% chance it’ll be a small cut (25 basis points) and an 8% chance it will be a bigger cut (50 basis points):

a graph of a graph of a companySo, what exactly is the Federal Funds Rate? It’s the short-term interest rate banks charge each other. It impacts borrowing costs across the economy, but it’s not the same thing as mortgage rates. Still, the Fed’s actions can shape the direction mortgage rates take next.

Why Markets Already Saw This Cut Coming

Here’s the part that may surprise you. Mortgage rates tend to respond to what the financial markets think the Fed will do, before the Fed officially acts. Basically, when markets anticipate a Fed cut, that outlook gets priced into mortgage rates ahead of time.

That’s exactly what happened after weaker-than-expected jobs reports on August 1 and September 5. Each time, mortgage rates ticked down as financial markets grew more confident a cut was coming soon. And even though inflation rose slightly in the latest CPI report, the Fed is still expected to make a cut.

So, if the Fed goes with a 25-basis point cut, as expected, that’s likely already baked in to current mortgage rates, and we may not see a dramatic drop.

But if they go bigger and drop their Federal Funds Rate by 50 basis points instead, mortgage rates could come down more than they already have.

So, Where Do Mortgage Rates Go from Here?

While the upcoming cut may not move the needle much, many experts expect the Fed could cut the Federal Funds Rate more than once before the end of the year. Of course, that’s if the economy continues to cool (see graph below):

a graph of cut cutsAs Sam Williamson, Senior Economist at First American, explains:

“For mortgage rates, investor confidence in a forthcoming rate-cutting cycle could help push borrowing costs lower in the back half of 2025, offering some relief to housing affordability and potentially helping to boost buyer demand and overall market activity.”

If multiple rate cuts happen, or even if markets just believe they will, mortgage rates could ease further in the months ahead. But here’s the catch – all of this depends on how the economy evolves. Surprise inflation data or unexpected shifts could quickly change the outlook.

Bottom Line

Mortgage rates likely won’t drop sharply overnight, and they won’t mirror the Fed’s moves one-for-one. But if the Fed begins a rate-cutting cycle, and markets continue to expect it, mortgage rates could trend lower later this year and into 2026.

If you’ve been waiting and watching the housing market, now’s the time to talk strategy. Even small changes in rates can make a meaningful difference in affordability, and understanding what’s ahead helps you make the best decision for your situation.

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Affordability

Mortgage Rates Just Saw Their Biggest Drop in a Year

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You’ve been waiting for what feels like forever for mortgage rates to finally budge. And last week, they did – in a big way.

On Friday, September 5th, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to the lowest level since October 2024. It was the biggest one-day decline in over a year.

What Sparked the Drop?

According to Mortgage News Daily, this was a reaction to the August jobs report, which came out weaker-than-expected for a second month in a row. That sent signals across the financial markets, and then mortgage rates came down as a result.

Basically, we’re seeing signs the economy may be slowing down, and as certainty grows in the direction the economy is going, the markets are reacting to what is likely ahead. That historically brings mortgage rates down.

Why Buyers Should Pay Attention Now

But this isn’t just about one day of headlines or one report. It’s about what the drop means for you.

This recent change saves you money when you buy a home. The chart below shows you an example of what a monthly mortgage payment (principal and interest) would be at 7% (where mortgage rates were in May) versus where rates roughly are now:

Compared to just 4 months ago, your future monthly payment would be almost $200 less per month. That’s close to $2,400 a year in savings.

How Long Will It Last?

That really depends on where the economy and inflation go from here. Rates could drop lower, or they could inch up slightly. 

So, make sure you’re connected with a good agent and trusted lender. They’ll keep a close eye on inflation indicators, job market updates, and reactions to upcoming Fed policy to gauge where mortgage rates may go from here.

But for now, focus on this. While no one can say for sure where rates are headed, the fact that rates broke out of their months-long rut is a good thing. If you’ve been feeling stuck, this could make the start of a new chapter. As Diana Olick, Senior Real Estate and Climate Correspondent at CNBC, says:

“Rates are finally breaking out of the high 6% range, where they’ve been stuck for months.” 

And that’s gives you more reason to hope than you’ve had in quite some time.

Bottom Line

This is the shift you’ve been waiting for.

Mortgage rates just saw their biggest decline in over a year. And if rates stay near this level, it could make a home you couldn’t afford just a few months ago feel possible again.

What would today’s rates save you on your future monthly payment? Connect with an agent or lender so you can find out.

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Buying Tips

Builder Incentives Reach 5-Year High

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Even with more homes on the market right now, some buyers are still having a tough time finding the right one at the right price. Maybe the layout feels off. Maybe it still needs some updating. Or maybe it’s just more of the same.

That’s why more buyers are turning to new construction – and finding some of the best deals available today.

Why? Today, many builders have more homes that are finished and sitting on the market than normal. And that means they’re motivated to sell. They’re running a business, and they don’t want to sit on their inventory. They want to sell it before they build more homes. And that can definitely work in your favor.

As Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub, puts it:

“In housing markets where unsold completed inventory has built up, many homebuilders have pulled back on their spec builds—and many are doing bigger incentives or outright price cuts to move unsold inventory.”

Incentives Are the Highest They’ve Been in 5 Years

Data from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) shows 66% of builders offered sales incentives in August. That’s the peak so far this year, and the highest percentage we’ve seen in 5 years.

a graph of blue rectangular bars with numbersThat means 2 out of every 3 builders are offering something extra to get deals done. And when builders throw in incentives, it’s the buyers like you who win.

Price Cuts Are Back on the Table

One of the most common incentives they’re offering right now is adjusting the price. According to NAHB, almost 40% of builders are doing price cuts (see graph below):

On average they’re taking off about 5% off the purchase price of the house. For a buyer, 5% could be the difference between reluctantly settling and finally getting a home that works for you.

Take a $500,000 house as an example. If builders reduce the price by 5%, you’re saving $25,000.

And even if the builder you’re interested in won’t budge on price, they’ve got plenty of other levers to pull. As Realtor.com explains: 

“. . . there are deals to be found in the market for new homes, with builders increasingly willing to negotiate on price or offer incentives such as rate buydowns and closing cost assistance.”

Why This Matters for You

As a buyer, you probably have a clear vision for your ideal home. Because you’re not just buying any house. You’re buying your house. The one with the space, features, and lifestyle you’ve been hoping for. New builds can check those boxes since they usually have: 

  • Bigger kitchens and open layouts
  • Energy efficiency (hello lower utility bills)
  • Smart-home upgrades
  • Fewer repair headaches on day one

And today’s incentives make buying a new home more attainable than it’s been in years.

One Word of Advice: Don’t Go At It Alone

If you want to take advantage of this opportunity, just be sure to use your own agent. Builder reps aren’t there to save you money. They protect the builder’s bottom line. That’s why you need to bring your agent with you. Your agent will:

  • Cut through the sales pitch and run the cold hard numbers
  • Spot which incentives are actually worth it (and which ones are fluff)
  • Handle negotiations so you walk away with the best deal possible
  • Keep your best interest as their top priority

Bottom Line

If you’re not finding a home you love, the new home market is buzzing with opportunity. With record-high incentives, price cuts in play, and builders itching to move inventory, this is the best time in years to buy new construction.

Curious how far today’s incentives could stretch your budget? Connect with an agent to see what builders are offering in your area.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.