If the housing market feels confusing right now, you’re not alone.

Mortgage rates have risen. Home sales haven’t picked up like expected. And many buyers and sellers are wondering when things are going to feel easier or be more affordable.

The truth is: a lot changed over the first half of this year.

Back at the end of 2025, economists were forecasting a much stronger housing market for 2026. They expected mortgage rates to come down, affordability to improve more dramatically, and home sales to rebound.

But lingering inflation, economic uncertainty, and growing geopolitical tensions overseas pushed mortgage rates higher than expected. And because rates stayed elevated for longer, many buyers continued to hold off.

That’s why experts recently revised their housing forecasts for the rest of the year (see graph below):

So, what does this actually mean for you? Let’s break it down.

Mortgage Rates May Remain Elevated

While just about everyone wants mortgage rates to go back to the uppers 5s or low 6s we saw at the start of the year, as of right now, the experts don’t think that’s likely to happen this year.

Instead, forecasts have been updated from the low 6s they originally projected. Many industry organizations are saying rates will stay in roughly the mid 6s this year. The good news is, that’s still lower than rates were a year ago.

Of course, this is based on what we know today. If the conflict overseas comes to an end or inflation drops, this could change. But if you’re waiting for lower rates, it may not pay off in the way you expect.

Existing Home Sales Revised Lower

Back in late 2025, experts expected we’d sell an average of 4.5 million homes this year. Now? That’s dropped down a bit to 4.2 million.

That tells us something important: buyers are still hesitant because affordability remains challenging.

Higher mortgage rates have made monthly payments harder to manage, especially for first-time buyers. And that’s slowed the pace of the market compared to what was originally expected. But even though the forecast was revised down, we’re still expected to sell more homes than last year. 

Once geopolitical tensions resolve and rates begin to settle down, many experts believe that group of buyers will be ready to jump back in. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explains:

“There is sizable pent-up demand that could be released into the market.”

There has already been a few glimmers of renewed hope lately. In recent months, pending homes sale have been improving month-over-month despite higher rates.

So, if you’re able to afford a home at today’s rates, it could still make sense to buy now. Because otherwise, if you wait, you’ll have more competition (and potentially fewer homes to choose from) when those others buyers jump back in.

New Home Sales Also Slowed

Builders also expected to have a stronger year. Earlier forecasts projected new home sales would top 700k in 2026. Now, economists expect we’ll be just shy of that number.

Again, mortgage rates are a major reason why.

But the upside for buyers is that builders may be even more motivated to sell. That means builder incentives, negotiation opportunities, and pricing flexibility may continue in many markets. So, if you live somewhere where there’s more new construction, this may actually be a bright spot for you.

Builders could be more ready to negotiate, and that gives you more leverage to get a better deal.

Home Prices Are Still Expected To Rise

This is one of the most important takeaways from the entire forecast. Even though sales activity is slower, on average, experts did not revise their home price forecast downward.

They still expect prices to rise nationally this year.

Why? Because while buyer demand has softened, the number of homes for sale is still relatively limited overall. That imbalance is helping support prices, even in a slower market.

Of course, conditions vary depending on where you live. Some markets are cooling more than others. But nationally, experts are still projecting steady price growth — not a major decline. And that should be a comfort whether you’re buying or selling.

Because sellers don’t want a major drop in prices. And while buyers may think they do, generally you feel better about a big purchase when it doesn’t depreciate right away.

Bottom Line

The housing market hasn’t rebounded as quickly as experts originally hoped. But that doesn’t mean it’s stalled.

Higher inflation and lingering economic uncertainty caused economists to revise their forecasts for this year. But importantly, when those two things settle down, many experts believe the market will regain its momentum.

So don’t see this revision in forecasts as a sign of trouble. See it as a temporary reaction to overall conditions and uncertainty.

If you want to know what’s happening in your local market, and what it could mean for your plans for the rest of this year, talk to a local agent.

It’s one of the biggest hold ups some buyers have right now: “What if I buy, and home prices go down?”

With everything in the news, that concern makes some sense. No one wants to make a big financial decision at the wrong time. But here’s what’s important to know. You don’t want to get hung up on the few places seeing slight declines right now.

When you zoom out and look at the full picture, home prices usually rise over time.

What the Data Really Shows

Take a look at the visual below. It uses data from Case-Shiller and Bilello to show how home prices have changed year by year going all the way back to the 1950s.

Here’s the key takeaway.

Outside of the housing crash, home prices have either held steady or increased in just about every year for decades (see visual below):

That’s a remarkably consistent track record. And it shows something a lot of headlines miss.

While short-term shifts can happen, it’s the long-term gains that really matter.

Why Prices Tend To Rise Over Time

There are a few core reasons prices usually go up each year:

• There are always people who need to move. People need a place to live, and that demand will never fully go away. It may ebb and flow, but someone will always have to move as big changes happen in their life. So, homes stay in demand.
• There still aren’t enough homes for sale. While the number of homes for sale has grown, nationally there’s still an undersupply based on how many people want a home. That keeps upward pressure on prices.
• Inflation has an impact. Over time, the cost of goods (including homes) naturally increases. That pushes home values higher.

What That Means for You as a Buyer

It’s easy to get caught up in what might happen with home prices next month or next year, especially if you’re a first-time buyer and you’re feeling a little anxious about making such a big financial commitment. But the big picture is clear. Prices usually rise.

That doesn’t mean prices will go up every single year in every market. Real estate is local, and there can be short-term ups and downs. We’re seeing that in some places right now. You can even see it in the few annual dips in the visual above.

But historically, the declines have been temporary.

That’s why it’s generally recommended to buy a home only if you plan to stay for a while – typically at least five years. That’s normally enough time to see your house grow in value. And, it’s enough so you can ride out any short-term changes in the market.

Because when you can do that, something powerful happens. Those rising home values grow your net worth, and by extension, help you build wealth.

The right decision isn’t about timing the market perfectly. It’s about making a move that works for your life and staying in it long enough to benefit from the bigger trend.

Bottom Line

Home prices have a long track record of going up over time. And that’s why buying a home is generally considered a safe long-term investment.

That certainly doesn’t mean you have to buy now. You should only move when it makes sense, and you plan to live there for a while.

But if you’re interested, let this reassure you. If you want to talk about what home prices are doing in our market, your goals, or your timelines, reach out to a local agent.

Most sellers come into the market with one number in mind. And it’s often the one that costs them the most. That’s their asking price. 

A survey from Realtor.com shows about 8 in 10 (80%) of sellers expect to sell at or above their asking price today. But here’s where things get interesting.

In reality, only about 4 out of every 10 (roughly 40%) actually do.

That’s a big gap. And it’s where a lot of sellers get caught off guard. So, why the disconnect? And how can you set yourself up to be one of the 4 in 10 that get top dollar? 

Let’s break it down.

What Should You Really Expect To Get for Your House? 

That 40% may sound low at first, but it’s not.

If you look back to the last typical year for the housing market (2019), what we’re really seeing is a return to what’s normal (see chart below). If anything, slightly more homeowners are able to sell above list price today compared to 2019:

It only feels low because the past few years were anything but typical. Between 2020 and mid-2022, buyer demand was sky-high and the number of homes for sale was at record lows. Almost everything sold over asking. 

Now, the market has shifted.

There are more homes for sale. Buyers have more options. And that means they’re more selective about how they spend their money.

In other words, the rules have changed – and pricing like it’s still 2021 is where sellers run into trouble. You have to meet the market where it is if you really want to cash in big.

What Happens When a Home Is Priced Too High

Here’s the reality. It’s easy to think pricing high gives you room to negotiate. But it usually does the opposite.

When your home is priced above what buyers expect, in this market, they don’t negotiate. They move on.

Because buyers notice price first. And if your home doesn’t line up with similar options in your area, it may not even get a showing. And that’s when things start to snowball:

• A high price gets less interest from buyers.

• Less interest means fewer offers.

• And fewer offers usually means more time on the market.

Take a look at this table from the Indiana Association of Realtors. While this data is from one state, the general trend is going to hold true across many markets in the country. It shows that homes listed at or under market value sell fast. But homes priced high? They linger. And that delay comes at a very real cost.

The Price Cut Trap (And How To Avoid It)

When a home sits that long without offers, a lot of sellers will do a price reduction. According to Realtor.com, 16.7% of sellers are going that route today.

But here’s the real problem. Even a price cut doesn’t guarantee a sale.

In fact, some buyers will see a reduction as a sign something’s wrong with the house – even when nothing is.

That’s why data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows the longer a home sits, the bigger that price cut tends to be to attract buyers back:

So, what starts as a strategy to “leave room” for negotiate can end up costing you more in the long run.

Why Pricing Right from Day One Matters

Even though listing at or even just shy of market value may sound counter intuitive if you’re looking to get as much money for your house as possible, a lot of the time it really is the best strategy.

Because the goal isn’t just to list your house to see what price sticks. It’s to price it in a way that creates demand from day one.

NAR puts it best:

“While some sellers are pricing their homes higher than ever, a more ‘goldilocks’ frame of mind is a better approach to avoid price cuts and lingering time on the market.”

In other words, there’s a sweet spot. Too high, and buyers disappear. Too low, and they question the value.

But right in the middle? That’s where the magic happens.

And that’s where the right agent comes in.

They help you understand what buyers are actually paying right now, how your home compares, and how to price it so it stands out immediately. And in today’s market, that strategy is the difference between:

1. Listing high, watching it sit, and selling for less later.

2. Or, pricing it right, creating competition, and putting yourself in a position to win from the start.

Bottom Line

A lot of homeowners think they can list high now and negotiate later, but that’s a mistake that costs them. And it’s the reason only 4 out of every 10 sellers are getting their asking price or more.

If you want to be in that group, it starts with getting the price right from day one.

Connect with a local agent to make sure you are.