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Understanding Today’s Mortgage Rates: Is 3% Coming Back?

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A lot of buyers are pressing pause on their plans these days, holding out hope that mortgage rates will come down – maybe even back to the historic-low 3% from a few years ago. But here’s the thing: those rates were never meant to last. They were a short-term response to a very specific moment in time. And as the market finds its footing again, it’s time to reset expectations.

Back in 2020 and 2021, 3% mortgage rates gave buyers a serious boost: more affordability, more buying power, and more opportunity. But those rates were a result of emergency economic policies during the height of a global pandemic. Now that the economy is in a different place, we’re seeing mortgage rates in the high 6% to low 7% range.

And while experts currently project a slight easing in the months ahead, most industry leaders agree: rates are not going back to 3%.

Instead, many forecasts suggest mortgage rates will settle in the mid-6% range by the end of the year, pending any major economic shifts. As Kara Ng, Senior Economist at Zillow, says:

“While Zillow expects mortgage rates to end the year near mid-6%, barring any unforeseen shocks, that path might be bumpy.”

What Buyers Should Know

Basically, waiting for 3% rates might mean waiting longer than you’d expect – and missing out along the way. Instead of putting off homebuying indefinitely, make a plan to get there and focus on what you can control: your budget, your credit, and working with a trusted professional who can explain exactly what’s happening in the current market – and how to navigate it.

Your local real estate agent and a trusted lender make all the difference in this process. The experts have insights into down payment assistance programs, alternative financing options, negotiation strategies, and overall – the experience you need on your side to understand creative ways that will make your plans work.

And here’s the biggest thing to keep in mind. Since rates are projected to ease slightly later this year, if that happens, it could bring some more buyers back into the market. Acting now gives you a head start, especially with more homes on the market than we’ve seen in years.

Think about it: if mortgage rates do come down, what do you think everyone else is going to do? That’s right – they’ll jump back in too.

Getting ahead of that rush could put you in a stronger position to find the right home with less competition. Realtor.com sums it up well:

“Staying out of the market in hopes of a rate drop that never comes can lead to missed opportunities . . . Rising home prices, rent increases, and inflation might outpace any future savings on interest. And if rates do fall sharply again, buyers could face an entirely different challenge: surging competition.”

Bottom Line

Those 3% rates everyone remembers from a few years ago were the exception, not the rule.

Now that they’re settling into new territory, it’s a good time to adjust your expectations and learn more about where things are heading as this market shifts.

A local real estate agent and a trusted lender will be your best resources, always keeping you up-to-date and informed, so you can make sense of your options and build a game plan that works for you.

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Affordability

Could Moving a Bit Further Out Change Everything About Your Budget?

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Whether you’re dreaming about buying your first home or wondering if it’s time to move on from the one you’re in, affordability is probably weighing on your mind. Home prices are still high in many markets, and even though things have improved a bit over the past year, making the numbers work can still feel like a stretch.

But the people finding ways to move right now usually have one thing in common. They didn’t wait for affordability to come to them. They went looking for it.

According to PODS, 61% of people across all generations say affordability is the biggest factor when deciding where to move. And it’s led a growing number of people to do one thing – broaden their search to include more affordable areas they hadn’t seriously considered before. As PODS, put it:

“. . . moving is increasingly driven by affordability, connection, and quality of life. As economic pressures persist, Americans are taking a more intentional, values-driven approach to where they choose to live.”

It’s Not Just the Home Price – It’s the Whole Cost of Living

Here’s where it gets really interesting. When people talk about moving for affordability, they’re not just talking about finding a cheaper house. They’re thinking about the full picture. What does it actually cost to live somewhere?

WalletHub looked at exactly this, measuring housing costs as a share of median monthly household income across every state (see map below).

Take a look at where you live on that map. The lighter the blue, the more affordable it generally is to live there. The darker the blue? Just the opposite.

a map of the united states

If your state is showing up on the darker blue end of the scale, the cost of living may be putting a real pinch on your wallet, and it may be worth exploring what a lighter-blue area could mean for your finances.

Because if you’re less financially stretched, imagine how that could change things. Less stress. Less worry. More freedom and peace of mind.

You Don’t Have To Move to Another State To Find a Better Deal

But finding more affordable homeownership doesn’t have to mean a cross-country move. It doesn’t even have to mean leaving your state, your family, or your favorite coffee shop behind.

Every market has more affordable pockets that most buyers never think to explore – neighborhoods, towns, and communities where home prices are lower, property taxes are more manageable, and the overall cost of living just works better.

A great local real estate agent knows exactly where those places are.

And if you work remotely, or have any flexibility in where you’re based, your options open up even further. Remote work has already changed the way millions of people think about where to live, and that trend isn’t going away.

When location stops being tied to a daily commute, a more affordable area that’s a bit farther out suddenly becomes a very real option.

Bottom Line

Affordability is a real challenge, but it’s not an unsolvable one. The key is being open to places you might not have considered before. A local real estate agent can help you find them.

Ready to find out which areas have the best affordability right now? Reach out today.

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Affordability

Less House, More Home: Why Smaller Homes Are Paying Off for Today’s Buyers

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You started shopping with a specific mental image of your future home in your mind. Then the houses in your budget came in smaller than you pictured.

That’s the reality for a lot of buyers right now. Affordability is tight.

But don’t let that discourage you. Going smaller might actually be a smart play in today’s market – and the upside can be bigger than you’d think. Let’s break down two places to look where smaller won’t necessarily feel like a compromise.

Homebuilders Are Focused on Smaller Options Lately

For starters, smaller is kind of on trend right now. Newly built homes have been shrinking for years. According to the latest data from the Census, the median square footage of new single-family homes has been falling overall since 2014 (see graph below):

a graph of a graph showing a line of a house

Why? Builders focus on the types of homes consumers want the most. After all, they want to build what will actually sell. And for the past decade, buyers seem to agree less is more.

Especially right now, when affordability is a key concern, they’re building homes with smaller square footage than a decade ago. And that’s good because that may be more within budget for many buyers. It’s part of why new home prices recently hit a 5-year low.

So, if you’re not getting excited about any of the existing options at your price point, it may be time to check out what builders are doing in your area.

You may find brand-new options you really love with all the latest and greatest features. And if you’ve got modern appliances and design, maybe slightly less square footage doesn’t feel like that much of a compromise anymore, especially if the house is move-in ready.

Condos Are Opening Up Another Path

Just in case you don’t have a ton of new builds in your area, another avenue worth exploring is condominiums or condos.

For buyers crunching numbers to make the math work, condos can take real pressure off the budget. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the median price for condos is less than the median for single-family homes in every region (see graph below):

a graph of a number of blue and green bars

Part of that is because condos are typically smaller. And smaller square footage can come with a smaller price tag too. That’s a selling point to affordability-strapped buyers right now – and it’s one of the reasons we’re seeing a bump in condo sales.

The number of condos sold rose 2.7% from just a month ago. It’s also up year over year, according to NAR. Ali Wolf, Chief Economist for New Home Source, explains why more buyers are going this route:

“In addition to favoring smaller floor plans, more consumers are showing a willingness to live in an attached home. This shift is not driven by a preference for shared walls, but by a pursuit of value.”

The Community Does Some of the Heavy Lifting

Here’s why smaller may still work for you. Whether it’s a condo complex or a neighborhood of detached single-family homes, the right community can give you back in amenities what you trade in square footage.

Many developments are designed so the home is just one piece of where you actually spend your time. Master-planned communities often include walking trails, pools, fitness centers, co-working spaces, and outdoor gathering areas – the kind of features that pick up where your floor plan leaves off.

No room for a dedicated office? The co-working space might be just a five-minute walk away. Want a place to work out? It’s already built in with the shared gym. And features like that can make opting for a smaller footprint feel less like a compromise – and more like a big lifestyle upgrade.

Bottom Line

Today’s smaller single-family homes and condos have more going for them than the square footage suggests. They can give your budget some breathing room and put you in a community designed with lifestyle in mind.

Curious about the options in your area? Connect with a local real estate agent to walk through what’s available.

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Affordability

What Most Veterans Don’t Know About Their VA Home Loan Benefit

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Nearly half of Veterans (49%) feel homeownership is currently out of reach, according to a recent survey from NewDay USA.

But many are closer than they think. And you might be, too.

If you’re a Veteran, you probably know the Veterans Affairs (VA) home loan benefit exists – it’s been around for over 80 years. What you might not know is what it actually covers. Three misconceptions trip up Veterans the most (see graph below):

a diagram of a home loanAny one of those beliefs could be holding you back. Let’s walk through all three, so you have the information you really need.

You May Not Have To Put Any Money Down

The potential to put zero money down is probably the biggest perk of a VA loan, but most homebuyers don’t even realize that’s an option. According to the NewDay USA survey, many respondents guessed they’d need to save somewhere between $10,000 and $19,900 before they could buy. That’s years of saving for an upfront cost that isn’t always required.

You May Have Lower Closing Costs

According to the Department of Veterans Affairs, with VA loans, there can be limits on the types of closing costs buyers have to pay. That means more money stays in your pocket on closing day – and you have less to save up for before you can buy. The benefit combined with the down payment perk can speed up your buying timeline.

Your Monthly PMI Costs Could Be $0

Unlike many other loan options, VA loans typically don’t require private mortgage insurance (PMI), even with low or no money down. If you take out a conventional loan instead, you could pay $100 to $300 a month in PMI until you hit 20% equity, according to NewDay USA. Over time, that’s a difference of thousands of dollars.

Your BAH & BAS May Help You Qualify for More

If you’re on active duty or if you’re a qualifying reservist, your Basic Allowance for Housing (BAH) and Basic Allowance for Subsistence (BAS) may count toward income qualification on a VA loan. So, if you were running the numbers without factoring your BAH or BAS in, you could qualify for more than you thought. Both BAH and BAS are non-taxable, so they can help raise the amount you can qualify for. 

Bottom Line

VA home loans can put homeownership within reach, and a trusted lender can help make sure you understand the details before you move forward.

If you’re active duty, you’ve served, or know someone who has, connect with a trusted lender who can walk you through whether you’d qualify and what the VA benefit offers. You may be able to buy a home sooner than you thought.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.