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Why Experts Say Mortgage Rates Should Ease Over the Next Year

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You want mortgage rates to fall – and they’ve started to. But is it going to last? And how low will they go?

Experts say there’s room for rates to come down even more over the next year. And one of the leading indicators to watch is the 10-year treasury yield. Here’s why.

The Link Between Mortgage Rates and the 10-Year Treasury Yield

For over 50 years, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has closely followed the movement of the 10-year treasury yield, which is a widely watched benchmark for long-term interest rates (see graph below):

a graph of a graph showing the rise of a mortgage rateWhen the treasury yield climbs, mortgage rates tend to follow. And when the yield falls, mortgage rates typically come down.

It’s been a predictable pattern for over 50 years. So predictable, that there’s a number experts consider normal for the gap between the two. It’s known as the spread, and it usually averages about 1.76 percentage points, or what you sometimes hear as 176 basis points.

The Spread Is Shrinking

Over the past couple of years, though, that spread has been much wider than normal. Why? Think of the spread as a measure of fear in the market. When there’s lingering uncertainty in the economy, the gap widens beyond its usual norm. That’s one of the reasons why mortgage rates have been unusually high over the past few years.

But here’s a sign for optimism. Even though there’s still some lingering uncertainty related to the economy, that spread is starting to shrink as the path forward is becoming clearer (see graph below):

a graph of a chartAnd that opens the door for mortgage rates to come down even more. As a recent article from Redfin explains:

“A lower mortgage spread equals lower mortgage rates. If the spread continues to decline, mortgage rates could fall more than they already have.”

The 10-Year Treasury Yield Is Expected To Decline

It’s not just the spread, though. The 10-year treasury yield itself is also forecast to come down in the months ahead. So, when you combine a lower yield with a narrowing spread, you have two key forces potentially pushing mortgage rates down going into next year.

This long-term relationship is a big reason why you see experts currently projecting mortgage rates will ease, with a fringe possibility they’ll hit the upper 5s toward the end of next year.

Here’s how it works. Take the 10-year treasury yield, which is sitting at about 4.09% at the time this article is being written, and then add the average spread of 1.76%. From there, you’d expect mortgage rates to be around 5.85% (see graph below):

a graph of a chartBut remember, all of that can change as the economy shifts. And know for certain that there will be ups and downs along the way. 

How these dynamics play out will depend on where the economy, the job market, inflation, and more go from here. But the 2026 outlook is currently expected to be a gradual mortgage rate decline. And as of now, things are starting to move in the right direction.

Bottom Line

Keeping up with all of these shifts can feel overwhelming. That’s why having an experienced agent or lender on your side matters. They’ll do the heavy lifting for you.

If you want real-time updates on mortgage rates, reach out to a trusted agent or lender who can keep you in the loop and help you plan your next move.

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Affordability

Wondering If You Should Still Buy a Home Right Now? Here’s What To Keep in Mind.

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With economic headlines, global events, and near constant talk about affordability, you may be wondering if this is the right time to move. But here’s what you need to remember.

While recent events do have some impact on the housing market, they don’t take buying off the table. You just have to use a different strategy.

Mortgage Rates Have Been Up Slightly – Here’s Why

After trending down for most of 2025, mortgage rates have been higher again for over roughly a month now. And experts say it’s a result of what’s happening overseas and in the broader economy. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explains:

“Mortgage rates have recently moved higher, driven by geopolitical uncertainty and rising energy costs that are contributing to inflation concerns.”

But what does that really mean for you? Should you wait for everything to settle back down before you buy a home?

The short answer is no. You don’t have to wait.

Your Window To Buy Didn’t Close

It’s true that a month or so ago, when rates were just shy of 6%, buying felt a bit more affordable. And now that rates are hovering around the mid-6s, monthly payment costs are higher.

But zoom out for a second.

Let’s say you’re taking out a loan for $500k. Even with rates in the mid 6s, you’re still saving roughly $300 on your monthly payment compared to buyers who made their purchase early last year.

That means this recent increase in rates hasn’t erased the progress we’ve seen. Buying is still more affordable than it was just one year ago (see below):

a blue and green chart with white textSure, your monthly payment would’ve been a little less expensive a few weeks back. But hindsight is always 20/20.

The goal moving forward shouldn’t be to perfectly time the market. Things change too quickly for that. Instead, the real goal is to make the best decision you can based on where things are today. And the best advice anyone can give is: brace for volatility.

When It Comes To Rates, Expect the Unexpected

Mortgage rates are going to continue to be move around in the weeks or months ahead as new information and economic reports come out.

Try to remember, you can’t control global events or where rates go next week (or even next month). But you can control how you prepare. If you do that, it becomes less about the headlines, and more about your situation.

If You Want or Need To Move, You Still Can

The simple truth is, if you want or need to move, you still can.

Some buyers are choosing to move forward right now because their needs haven’t changed. A growing family, a job relocation, a lifestyle shift – those things still matter.

And for buyers who do decide to move forward, there are ways to make it work.

For example, you could explore options like adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) to get a lower rate upfront. That may or may not be the right fit for you, but it highlights an important point: there are strategies that can help you move, even now.

What matters most is having a plan.

And working with the right agent and lender is a big part of that. With expert help, you’ll:

  • Understand your budget and what the math looks like at today’s rates.

  • Explore your financing options, including ARMs and assistance programs.

  • Have trusted guidance from experts who’ll keep you up to date throughout the process.

Bottom Line

Even though there’s some uncertainty, that doesn’t mean you’re out of options.

If you need to move, you still can. Connect with a trusted agent and lender so you can explore all your options and make your move happen.

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Affordability

When Buying a Home Feels Out of Reach, Some Families Do This Instead

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For a lot of people, the math on buying a home just doesn’t really work right now. Maybe that’s how it feels for you too. You look at the cost of buying. Then you look at the cost of childcare. And it starts to feel like you have to choose one or the other.

But some families are finding a way to make both work by doing something a little different: teaming up to purchase a multi-generational home.

One Reason This Is Becoming More Common

It’s no secret that affordability has been a challenge in recent years. But for families with young kids, there’s an added layer that can make it feel even harder: childcare.

According to the Department of Health and Human Services, childcare should take up no more than 7% of your monthly income. But in reality, the average married couple spends closer to 10% (see map below):

a map of the united statesWhen you combine that with the cost of buying a home, it’s easy to see why things can feel stretched. That’s exactly why more families are starting to rethink how they approach both.

The Solution More People Are Turning To: Multi-Generational Living

One option gaining traction? Multi-generational living. That’s when parents, grandparents, or other relatives buy a house together and live under the same roof. And it’s not just about convenience anymore. It’s becoming a go-to strategy.

You can see it in the data. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), almost 1 in 7 homebuyers (14%) bought a multi-generational home in 2025 (see graph below):

a graph of a homebuyers bought a multi-generation homeAnd for the first time, childcare is showing up as a key reason why they chose this option. As NAR explains:

“This year’s report features two new primary reasons for purchasing a multi-generational home: grandchildren living in the home (12%) and to help reduce the cost of childcare (6%).”

Why It Works

Buying a multi-generational home solves two big challenges at the same time.

  • First, it shares the financial responsibility. If you pool multiple incomes together, you may be able to afford a home you couldn’t have on your own.
  • Second, it can also solve the childcare puzzle. When grandparents or other relatives live in the home, they may be able to help with daily care – which can significantly reduce or even eliminate daycare costs.

And for many people, that combination is what finally makes their move possible.

If the costs of childcare and housing together have made buying feel out of reach right now, it may be worth exploring creative options like buying a home with your loved ones.

Bottom Line

If you want more information on multi-generational homes, talk to a local agent about what’s available in your area.

Sometimes the path to homeownership isn’t doing it alone. It’s doing it together.

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Affordability

Affordability Has Improved in All 50 States

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For the past few years, affordability has been what’s stopped a lot of buyers in their tracks. Maybe it stopped you, too.

At some point you probably did the math, looked at the monthly payment, and decided to pause your search and wait for things to get better. But here’s something you may have missed while you’ve been sitting on the sidelines.

Over the last year, housing affordability has improved in all 50 states. Yes, you read that right. It’s gotten better in every single state.

That’s based on new research coming out of First American. And while housing is still fairly expensive compared to historical standards, the pressure buyers felt over the last few years is finally starting to ease.

Some Areas Are Seeing Bigger Improvements

The first thing you need to know is that this isn’t just happening in one region or in a small handful of cities. The trend is happening almost everywhere.

Sure, individual states, cities, and even neighborhoods are going to vary – sometimes by a lot. But overall, more buyers are able to buy again. And in 48 of the top 50 metros, affordability has improved over the past year.

That same research breaks down which cities are seeing the biggest gains:

a house with palm trees and brick drivewayJust in case you’re wondering: why these areas? It’s simple. In many cases, it comes down to the number of homes for sale.

When buyers have more choices, it creates a healthier balance in the market and that can help bring affordability back within reach. With homes up for grabs, it opens the door a bit wider for buyers to negotiate with sellers for credits, price cuts, and more. And it gives you more chances to find a house that works for your needs and budget.

It may make more of a difference than you think.

None of this means affordability challenges have completely disappeared. Buying a home is still a big financial decision. But the trend is moving in a direction many buyers have been waiting for.

As Chen Zhao, Head of Economic Research at Redfin, puts it:

“The housing affordability crisis is showing signs of easing . . . opening the door for more Americans to make the jump to homeownership.”

Bottom Line

If you were holding off on buying, this could be exactly the signal you’ve been waiting so long for. To find out how much affordability’s improved in your area, connect with a local real estate agent.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.