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Economy

Is the Housing Market Going To Crash? Here’s What Experts Say

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If you’ve seen headlines or social posts calling for a housing crash, it’s easy to wonder if home values are about to take a hit. But here’s the simple truth.

The data doesn’t point to a crash. It points to slow, continued growth.

And sure, it’s going to vary by local area. Some markets will see prices rise more than others. And some may even see small, short-term declines. But the big picture is: home prices are expected to rise nationally, not fall, over the next 5 years.

The Real Story Is in the Expert Forecasts

In the Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae, each quarter over 100 leading housing market experts weigh in on where they project home prices will go from here. And in the report that was just released, the experts agree prices are projected to climb nationally through at least 2029 (see graph below):

a graph of green squaresHere’s how to read this visual. Each bar in that graph shows an increase, not a loss. It’s just that the anticipated pace of that appreciation varies year-to-year.

And to further drive this home, let’s look at another view of where prices are and where they’re expected to go. In this version, the expert forecasts are broken into 3 categories: the overall average, the most optimistic projections, and the most pessimistic projections (see chart below):

a graph on a blue backgroundNotice how even the most pessimistic forecasters say we’ll see prices rise by almost 5% over the next few years.

  • Overall, prices are expected to rise about 15% from now through the end of 2029.
  • The optimists say we’ll beat that and see a roughly 26% increase.
  • And even the pessimists anticipate prices will go up by 5% during that period.

What sticks out the most? None of these groups who study the market are forecasting a crash, or even a decline, over the next 5 years.

How This Compares to “Normal” for the Market

Now, focus back on the first graph. The projections call for 2-3.5% price increases in each of the next five years. For context, the average rate of appreciation for the last 25 years was closer to 4-5% annually.

So, while that’s slightly below the historical average, it’s much more sustainable and typical than where the market was in 2020, 2021, and 2022.

Back then, prices rose too much, too fast based on record-low supply and record-high demand. Some places even saw prices climb by 15-20%.

So, while it may feel like prices are stalling compared to those pandemic-era surges, what’s really happening is that the market is finally finding balance again.

Why Prices Aren’t Expected To Crash

A lot of the chatter about home prices today is based on that rapid rise and the old saying that what goes up, must come down. But historically, that’s not really true. Home prices almost always rise.

And the main reason we’re not heading for a repeat of 2008 is simple: supply and demand.

Even though affordability challenges have made it harder for some people to buy over the past few years, there still aren’t enough homes for everyone who wants one. And that ongoing shortage is keeping upward pressure on prices nationally. 

That’s why experts across the board can confidently agree: we’re not headed for a price collapse, but for steady, long-term appreciation.

And just in case it’s the economy that’s got you worried, remember this. Over the past 50 years, there have been plenty of economic events that have impacted the market. And one thing that’s consistently been true throughout time is the housing market always recovers. And we’re coming through that turn right now and going into a recovery.

Bottom Line

If you’ve been waiting to buy or sell because you’re worried about a crash, it’s time to look at the data – not the headlines.

The question isn’t if home prices will rise, it’s by how much.

Connect with an agent who can show you what’s happening in your local market and what these forecasts mean for your next move.

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Economy

What Buying or Selling a Home Gives Back to Your Community

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Buying or selling a home is a big financial decision. And right now, it feels even bigger. Inflation is high, costs are high, and you want to be sure the timing is right before you make your move. 

But if you do decide to go for it, whether you’re buying or selling, here’s something reassuring to hold onto. Not only does your move change your own life, but it also gives your whole community a boost.

Real estate is a huge part of the economy. In 2025, it added up to about $5.6 trillion, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). A good share of that comes from everyday people buying and selling homes, just like you.

Your Move Puts Real Money Into the Local Economy

Every sale sends money flowing through your area. NAR data shows that buying an existing home (one that’s already been lived in) adds about $64,000 to the local economy. Buy a newly built home, and that number climbs to more than $134,000 (see graph below):

a diagram of a home sale

Over half of that comes from the work of building the home itself. The rest flows to real estate services, like agent and lender fees, plus what you spend settling in afterward, on things like furniture and remodeling.

And the money doesn’t stop there. As local businesses earn it, they spend it again in your area, so a single sale ripples further than the sale price alone.

One Sale Keeps a Lot of People Working

Behind every sale is a whole network of people doing their jobs. Contractors, lenders, inspectors, movers, and more. When you buy or sell, you help keep them busy. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, puts it this way:

Increased home sales mean more economic activity — lawn care, furniture purchases, moving services, mortgage originations and other related business activities all get a boost.

So, your move supports your neighbors’ livelihoods, too. The deal that gets you into your next home also helps a local crew make payroll. In a year when every paycheck counts, that’s no small thing.

Your Local Impact May Be Even Bigger

What your move financially adds to your community depends a lot on where you live. To help you see how it can vary, here’s a look at the impact of a typical newly built home sale by state.

The national average for a newly built home is about $134,000, but some states see far more (see map below):

a map of the united states

In California, a single sale adds more than $300,000 to the local economy. In Hawaii, it’s over $350,000. Even in the most affordable states, the number lands in the tens of thousands.

Want to know what a move would mean where you live? A local agent can show you the figure close to home.

Bottom Line

Moving is both a personal milestone and an investment in your community. So, if the time is right for you, connect with a local agent. You’ll make a difference for more people than you know.

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Economy

More Sellers Are Taking Their Homes off the Market. Here’s What You Need To Know.

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You may be hearing that a near-record number of homeowners are pulling their houses off the market. And if that headline has you thinking, “Wait… is something bad about to happen?” You’re not alone.

Because when people start stepping to the sidelines, it sounds like a warning sign that something’s coming – or that they realize something you don’t know.

Here’s the thing. This trend gets spun like it means the market is about to crash. But the data tells a more practical story.

What the Numbers Actually Say

According to the latest data from Redfin, 5.5% of all listings were taken off the market in May. And it’s true that’s almost the highest it’s been since back in March 2020 (see graph below): 

a graph showing the price of a home

That can sound scary. But a lot of the fear comes from how this story gets told. “A near record number of sellers are pulling their listings” makes a great clickbait headline – and that sort of thing spreads fast, especially online. But sellers pull a house off the market for plenty of reasons that have nothing to do with a crash.

Redfin points to four main forces driving this trend:

  • Homes are taking longer to sell. When the pace slows down, some sellers get frustrated and decide to hold off.

  • The number of homes for sale is rising faster than demand. That means buyers have more options. And sellers who don’t price or prep right may not get many eyes on their house.

  • Some sellers still have pandemic-era price expectations. A price that would’ve worked a couple years ago may not match what today’s buyers will pay.

  • Economic uncertainty is making both buyers and sellers cautious. Buyers pause. Sellers second-guess. And that has an impact on overall sales volume and pace.

Notice what’s missing from that list? There isn’t a single mention of an impending market crash or price collapse.

This is about a shifting pace, more competition, and sellers deciding how they want to respond.

One Detail Most Headlines Leave Out

Want more peace of mind that this isn’t a crash? This next stat delivers. Yes, more sellers are taking their homes off the market. But Redfin also shows something you’re not going to see in social posts…

The number of re-listings is growing too.  

While more sellers are pulling their listings, more are also deciding to give selling a second shot too. This is pretty much the highest re-listings have been since the pandemic hit.

While 5.5% got pulled in May, 2.3% were also put back on the market (see graph below):

a graph of sales and prices

That’s a signal sellers aren’t giving up or running away in large numbers.

Some are simply stepping away briefly before deciding to try again. That tells you this often isn’t a permanent decision. In many cases, it’s a pause – and the seller comes back with a different approach.

A lot of the time that change in the overall strategy is all that’s needed to finally get a house sold. 

And just in case you need more proof this isn’t a reason to worry, check this out. Buyer activity may be starting to pick back up – and that could bring more sellers back in or, at least, prevent some sellers from pulling back. 

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports existing home sales increased 3.2% in May. That’s the biggest increase since December. As the Wall Street Journal puts it: 

“Home sales in May posted the biggest rise this year, a sign that the housing market’s crucial spring selling season may be showing signs of life after a sluggish start.”

That doesn’t sound like a market in trouble.

Bottom Line

If you’re seeing headlines about how a record number of sellers are taking their homes off the market, don’t panic. It’s not a warning of an impending crash. It’s a market adjusting.

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Affordability

What Rising Inflation Means for Your Move

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Data shows inflation is moving in the wrong direction. But before the headlines send anyone into a panic, here’s what’s actually going on, why it matters for the housing market, and what it means if you’re thinking about buying or selling.

Inflation Went Up – Here’s What That Actually Means

The government tracks inflation in a variety of ways. One is something called PCE – the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. It measures how much more (or less) people are paying for goods and services compared to a year ago. And just based on your own expenses, you can probably guess which way that’s trending.

That’s the one everyone is talking about right now. Check out the yellow line to see how that’s spiked since February (see graph below). A big driver of this jump is the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has pushed gas and energy prices significantly higher.

a graph with blue and yellow lines

Now, you may have noticed there’s a second line. The blue line shows core PCE. That’s the same measure, but with gas and energy prices stripped out. The Federal Reserve (the Fed) actually watches this number most closely because energy prices swing around a lot and can be misleading.

And here’s the somewhat encouraging part.

Core PCE is rising, but not nearly as fast as the overall number. That suggests a good chunk of the inflation spike we’re seeing right now is tied directly to what’s happening overseas. So, when that situation settles down, inflation may settle a bit, too.

Why This Matters for Mortgage Rates

Here’s the housing connection. When inflation is high, the Fed tends to keep the Federal Funds Rate elevated or even raise it to try to taper spending and cool inflation back down. And while it’s not a one-for-one relationship, that Federal Funds Rate can have an impact on your mortgage rate when you buy. 

Right now, based on the information we have, there’s roughly a 50/50 chance the Fed actually raises the Federal Funds Rate before the end of 2026, according to CME FedWatch (see graph below):

a graph of blue squares

While it’s too soon to say where this goes for certain and if we’re headed for a rate hike, it does mean mortgage rates are probably not coming down as soon as most people were hoping.

If you’ve been waiting for rates to drop significantly before making a move, this report is a reminder that “higher for longer” is still very much on the table. It really all depends on where the economy goes from here. According to Bankrate:

“Oil prices and bond yields have dropped a bit . . . but they’re still way up compared to the start of spring. Until there’s a resolution to the war, look for both inflation and mortgage rates to stay high.

But This Is Not 2008 – Not Even Close

Just remember, a tough economy does not equal a housing crash. The conditions today are very different from what led to the 2008 collapse. Here’s why:

  • Inventory is still relatively low. There’s no flood of homes hitting the market.

  • Most homeowners today have strong equity in their homes.

  • Lending standards are far stricter than they were before 2008.

  • Today’s challenge is affordability, not a wave of distressed underwater sellers.

Uncomfortable and unhealthy are not the same thing. The market feels hard right now, but “hard” and “crashing” are very different.

You Still Have Options. Here’s What To Do.

High rates don’t mean homeownership is out of reach. It just means the path looks a little different. There are real strategies that can help, depending on your situation:

  • Ask your lender about different loan options. Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) or rate buydowns may help lower your monthly payment in the short term.

  • Explore first-time buyer programs, down payment assistance, or seller concessions that could help offset costs.

  • Stay in close touch with a trusted agent and lender. When rates shift, and they will, you’ll want to be ready to move fast.

The right strategy, tailored to your goals, matters a lot more than waiting for the perfect moment that may never come.

Bottom Line

Inflation is still above where the Fed wants it, and that means mortgage rates are likely to stay elevated for a while. But for people who need to move, strategy matters far more than trying to perfectly time the market.

Wondering what this means for your specific situation? Connect with a local agent or lender.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.