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Are Builders Overbuilding Again? Let’s Look at the Facts.

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If it feels like you’re seeing new construction signs pop up everywhere, you’re not wrong. Builders have been busy. And it’s left some people wondering: Are we overbuilding like we did right before the 2008 housing crash?

No matter what you may hear in the news, there’s no reason for alarm. In reality, data shows builders aren’t racing ahead, they’re actually starting to tap the brakes.

Builders Are Pulling Back, Not Piling On

Permits (applications to start building new homes) are one of the best early indicators for what’s next for home construction. And right now, building permits are trending down, not up. Here’s why that’s so important.

In the years before the housing crash of 2008, builders really ramped up their production of single-family homes (the red arrow in the graph below). And unfortunately, they built far more homes than the market actually needed. That oversupply led to falling home prices. That’s what so many people remember, and what they worry will happen again.

But while construction has been picking back up since roughly 2012, we’re not headed for a repeat of the same mistakes. The latest data available shows builders are actually starting construction on fewer homes right now (the green arrow in the graph below):

a graph with blue lines and red textNew data from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) confirms that trend. It shows that single-family building permits have fallen for eight straight months.

The Slowdown Isn’t Random, It’s Intentional

Basically, builders are watching and reacting to today’s economic conditions and buyer demand in real time. And they’re pumping the brakes on their pipelines to avoid getting caught with too much unsold inventory. As Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, says:

“. . . builders are still working through their backlog of inventory but are more cautious with new starts.”

That’s a big contrast to what happened before the housing crash, when overconfidence led to record-breaking levels of new home construction – even as demand was dropping. Today’s builders aren’t overconfident. They’re listening to the market and adjusting before things get out of balance.

The Regional Picture Tells the Same Story

And while inventory is going to vary a lot based on where you live, if you zoom out and look at regional data, the pattern holds almost everywhere (see graph below):

a graph of a number of blue squaresNAHB reports single-family permits are down in nearly every part of the country, with just one region showing a slight uptick. And even there, the growth is so small, it’s practically flat.

Why This Isn’t 2008 All Over Again

In the lead up to the crash, builders kept building long after demand had disappeared. This time, they’re slowing down early, and that’s a good thing.

The market actually needs more homes after years of underbuilding. But builders are making sure they don’t have to overcorrect. They’re being intentional about how many homes they’re building right now.

So yes, you’re seeing more new homes for sale today, but that doesn’t mean we’re oversupplied nationally. It means buyers finally have more options, and builders are pacing themselves to keep things in check. They’re not going to flood the market. And that’s a really good thing for housing overall.

Bottom Line

Seeing more new homes for sale doesn’t mean builders are overdoing it. Since building permits have been declining for eight straight months, it’s clear this isn’t an out-of-control boom. It’s a measured recovery.

If you want to know more about what builders are doing in your area, connect with a local agent.

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Buying Tips

Why There are More Homes for Sale Right Now (and What It Means for You)

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Mortgage rates being back above 7% isn’t exactly the news most people wanted. But it’s changing the market in ways that matter whether you’re buying or selling.

The number of homes for sale is growing faster than it was this time last year. And interestingly, the main reason isn’t a flood of new listings. It’s because homes aren’t selling as quickly.

Here’s why – and what that means if you’re thinking about buying or selling.

Inventory Growth Is Picking Up Steam

According to HousingWire Data, after inventory growth slowed down for most of the past year, it’s accelerated again in recent weeks. You can see that in the graph below. Just look at the blue line:

a graph of growth and growth

And what’s behind this shift might surprise you.

When rates rise, some buyers hit pause. That means fewer homes sell each week. And as those unsold homes stay on the market alongside new listings, the number available starts to grow (see the blue line in the graph below).

Here’s another way to look at it to make it even more obvious. The graph below shows the relationship between rates and inventory. Again, this year is the blue line. Last year? That’s the green.

With rates inching up this year, you can see inventory has grown by about 25k. But when rates went down this time last year, buyers jumped back in, and inventory actually dropped by about 9k.

a graph of growth and growth of a mortgage

Logan Mohtashami, Lead Analyst at HousingWire, explains how that’s flipped from 2025 to 2026:

“With mortgage rates over 7%, demand tends to soften and inventory rises . . .”

Homes Are Spending More Time on the Market

Here’s another metric that shows the impact rates are having: time on market. Data from Realtor.com shows the typical home spent 61 days on the market this September. Back in September 2021, it was just 41 days (see graph below):

a graph of sales growth

Here’s what that tells us. In 2021, when rates were low, more buyers were active, and homes sold fast. But now that rates are a bit higher, not as many buyers are interested, so it takes a bit longer to close a deal.

How To Make This Market Work for You

So, what does all of this mean for your plans? That depends on which side of the move you’re on:

If you’re buying, more homes for sale means more choices and less pressure to rush. And more room to negotiate too. A house that’s been sitting for a while could have a seller who’s more willing to talk – not just about price, but repairs, closing costs, or even helping buy down your mortgage rate.

That doesn’t mean every seller will play ball. But compared to the frenzy of a few years ago, buyers have more leverage now.

If you’re selling, the right strategy can make all the difference. Buyers have more homes to choose from, so making yours stand out is especially important. That starts with pricing it right from day one, making a great first impression, and working with your agent to highlight what makes your house worth choosing. Buyers are still buying and homes are still selling. The key is making sure yours is positioned to attract the right buyer.

The market hasn’t stopped. It’s just moving at a different pace. And whether you’re buying or selling, your strategy needs to move with it.

Bottom Line

In many places right now, inventory is growing and homes are taking a bit longer to sell. And that’s information that should shape the strategy you use going in.

Whether you’re buying or selling, connect with a local real estate agent to look at how long homes are taking to sell in your neighborhood, so your offer, or your price, fits today’s market.

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Affordability

Why Most People Are Still Glad They Bought a Home

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With everything going on, it’s understandable if you’re wondering if you’d regret buying right now. 

Everyday expenses cost more. Mortgage rates are higher than you’d like. And when the economy feels uncertain, taking on a mortgage can feel like a much bigger leap. But here’s some perspective that may help…

Most people who already made that leap would do it again.

According to a recent survey from NerdWallet, the vast majority of recent buyers (74%) were glad they bought their current home. Only a very small 3% of people regret it:

a graph with text on it

And here’s a big reason why so many people feel it was worth it, even now.

Homeownership Is a Long-Term Play

When you’re deciding whether to buy, it’s easy to focus on what’s happening right now. What’s today’s mortgage rate? Are prices going up or down? Those things matter. But don’t get so caught up in buying in the perfect moment that you miss the bigger picture.

A home isn’t typically something you buy for just a year or two. It’s a longer-term play. And when you zoom out, it all starts to fall into perspective – especially if you look at home prices and equity.

According to data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), home prices nationally have risen 33.4% over just the past five years (see map below):

a map of the united states

And that appreciation has helped current homeowners build some serious wealth. Research from Bankrate shows homeowners gained an average of nearly $150,000 in wealth over the past five years as equity steadily rose across 90% of major metro areas.

That’s one of the biggest benefits of homeownership. As you pay down your mortgage and your home appreciates over time, your ownership stake – your equity – can grow.

Now, Zoom Out Even Further

The five-year numbers are impressive. But the numbers get even more dramatic when you look at decades instead of individual market cycles.

FHFA data shows home prices nationally have risen 336% since 1991. Sit with that for a second. Three hundred percent (see map below):

a map of the united states with numbers and a number of states 

That doesn’t mean prices go up every single year. And it doesn’t mean buying is automatically the right decision for everyone today. You should only buy when the numbers (and the payment) work for you.

What it does show is why trying to perfectly time the market can make you miss the bigger picture. 

Over time, homeowners gain a lot of equity. And that equity can eventually become a powerful financial resource. As Freddie Mac explains: 

“Your home’s equity is part of your total wealth as a homeowner. If you decide to sell your home, the equity you have built over time will come back to you in the sale. . .

If it’s time to upsize or downsize, you can use that cash for the down payment on your next home.”

Basically, if you can afford to do it, buying a home now could set you up for future moves.

And just in case you’re someone who’s worried about what happens if prices do fall, after you buy, remember: you’re not buying for one year.

Prices can dip. They have before. But historically, they’ve risen far more over the long run. And the longer you own your home, the more time you have to ride out those ups and downs and keep building equity.

Bottom Line

Don’t let today’s uncertainty make you lose sight of what homeownership can do over time. Most homeowners say they’d make the same choice again. And decades of home-price growth help explain why.

If you’re wondering whether buying makes sense for you right now, connect with an agent to look at the numbers together – and what owning a home could mean for you in the years ahead.

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Affordability

Myth vs. Reality: Does the Fed Control Mortgage Rates?

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You’ve probably heard the Federal Reserve (the Fed) is raising rates again. And if you’re planning to buy or sell a house, you may be wondering what that means for you.

With all the headlines, it’s easy to think the Fed sets mortgage rates. That’s actually a common myth. But the Fed’s decisions can still have an impact on them.

So, where does that leave you? The next few months could get a little bumpy. But the Fed is playing the long game. And with the right plan, you can still make a move that works. Let’s break it down.

Why the Fed Is Raising Rates

It all comes back to inflation. With prices rising fast, everything is getting more expensive – and that leaves buyers with less spending power and makes homes cost more to build.

So, the Fed raises its key short-term rate (the Federal Funds Rate) to slow down inflation. And that’s where a lot of people get tripped up.

  • MYTH: The Fed controls mortgage rates.

  • REALITY: The Fed has an impact on mortgage rates, but it’s only one piece of the puzzle.

As NerdWallet explains:

“The Federal Reserve influences mortgage rates, but doesn’t set them. . . Mortgage rates are influenced by many elements, including the inflation rate, the pace of job creation, and whether the economy is growing or shrinking. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is a factor, too . . .”

Here’s the simplest way to explain how it all fits together. Mortgage rates tend to follow something called the 10-year treasury yield. That’s the return investors get for lending money to the government for 10 years. And that yield moves up and down based on what investors expect from inflation and the economy.

Right now, one of the biggest things moving that yield is the conflict in Iran. It’s pushed oil prices higher, which has investors worried about inflation. That’s why any news about the conflict can move mortgage rates. If there’s resolution in Iran, that could take some pressure off inflation and mortgage rates. But the timing is hard to predict.

What the Fed does can move that yield, too. When they hike the Federal Funds Rate to fight inflation, investors pay attention. That can push the 10-year yield up, and mortgage rates usually follow. But once inflation cools, the yield has room to come back down, and mortgage rates can, too. That gives buyers some of their purchasing power back (see graphic below):

a diagram of a federal funds rate

Think of it as a little pain today to set up some relief down the road. But how long could that short-term pain last? A lot depends on what the Fed does next.

There’s a Strong Possibility the Fed Will Hike Again This Year

According to CME FedWatch, there’s over an 80% chance the Fed hikes their federal funds rate at least once more before the end of 2026 (see graph below):

a graph of hikers with blue squares

Remember, the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates. But another hike will likely keep upward pressure on them in the short term. So, should you wait it out? Sam Williamson, Senior Economist at First American, says this:

“Over time, firmer Fed action could help steady the bond market and open the door to lower mortgage rates, but only if investors become more confident that inflation is coming under control.“

And there are some early signs that’s starting to happen. Inflation cooled faster than experts expected in August:

  • PCE inflation dropped to 3.4%, down from 3.7% in July.

  • Core PCE (the Fed’s preferred measure which leaves out food and energy prices) fell to 3%, down from 3.3%.

That’s a step in the right direction, and it’s part of why the odds of a hike at the Fed’s October meeting have come down recently. But inflation’s still above the Fed’s 2% target, and it’s been that way for about 5 years. So, lower rates could still take a while. Your best bet is a plan that works at today’s rates.

How To Make Your Move Work Right Now

While this rate hike cycle isn’t the headline you want to see, it doesn’t mean you have to wait. There are still ways to move, even now.

  • If you’re buying: Get pre-approved so you know your real budget. Ask your lender about your options to get the best rate possible. And once you’re under contract, lock your rate so a jump before closing doesn’t raise your payment.

  • If you’re selling: Decide what matters most to you – a quick sale or top dollar. Each one can call for a different plan. Price for today’s buyers, whose budgets are smaller with higher rates. And think about offering a rate buydown or other concession. They can do more for a buyer’s budget than a price cut.

Bottom Line

The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, but its hikes can keep them higher for a while. The goal is to bring inflation, and eventually rates, down over time. With more hikes likely this year, waiting may not pay off. So, connect with a local real estate agent to map out a plan that works at today’s rates.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.