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Affordability

Newly Built Home Prices Hit a 5-Year Low

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If you’ve always assumed a newly built home is just not in your budget, you should know the math just got a little friendlier.

The median sale price of a newly built home is now at its lowest level since 2021, according to the latest data from the Census. And on top of that, builders are still rolling out incentives to bring buyers through the door.

Here’s what’s happening, and what it means if you’re shopping right now.

Prices on Newly Built Homes Have Come Down

After a steep climb during the pandemic years, prices have eased a bit. The median sale price of newly built homes is sitting at about $390,000. That’s the lowest it’s been in nearly five years (see graph below):

a graph of a home pricesWhile local markets vary, the national trend is moving in your favor, especially if you’re a first-time buyer. According to Zonda, prices in the entry-level price range have dropped roughly 2.7% over the past 12 months – more than any other price tier.

That doesn’t mean every home in every market is suddenly affordable. But it does mean that, broadly, you’ll see the best prices on new builds since 2021, if you’re buying now.

Why This Isn’t a Repeat of 2008

And just in case you’re thinking it, lower prices don’t mean the new home market is in trouble. Builders today are being intentional about how much inventory they have, so it doesn’t pile up the way it did in 2008.

If you look back up at the graph, you’ll see that even after the recent improvement in new home prices, they’re still higher than pre-pandemic norms. So, this isn’t a crash. It’s a builder strategy to keep inventory moving.

Homebuilders Are Still Sweetening the Deal

Lower sticker prices aren’t the only break buyers are getting. According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), 60% of builders are currently offering some form of incentive to attract buyers. Those typically include:

  • Help with closing costs: Some builders are covering thousands of dollars in fees to reduce the upfront cost of buying.
  • Extra upgrades: Think premium finishes, appliance packages, and designer features, often added at no extra cost.
  • Mortgage rate buydowns: When the builder pays to lower your mortgage rate, which reduces your monthly payment.
  • Price cuts: Over one in three builders (36%) are cutting prices right now, averaging about 5% off list price (see graph below):

a blue and grey pie chartThat last point catches a lot of buyers off guard – most assume that builders won’t budge on price.

But builders need to move what they’ve built. That’s a different mindset than a homeowner deciding whether to budge on price. So, you may find they’re more open to adjusting the price than you’d think. As Joel Berner, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, puts it:

“. . . many existing-home sellers resort to taking down their listing instead of taking less than their desired price, but builders are more motivated to sell their inventory than owner-occupants . . .”

And if you use the version of the graph that shows 2008 prices, you can even reference that in this explainer.

And if here, should I change the last sentence of the lede?

Bottom Line

Builder incentives and lower new home prices are working to your advantage in a way they haven’t in years. Connect with a local real estate agent to see what’s available in your area and what kind of deal a builder may be willing to make.

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Affordability

Thinking About Tapping into Your 401(k) To Buy a Home? Read This First.

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Lately, headlines have floated an eye-catching idea about tapping into your 401(k) to cover a down payment on a home. Maybe you’ve caught the buzz and wondered whether that money could get you into a home faster, especially with affordability as tough as it is. 

Here’s what you need to remember. Pulling from your retirement savings is a big decision, so take time to weigh all your options first and be sure to talk with a financial expert before you do anything.

Why Dipping into a 401(k) Can Be Tempting

Data from Empower shows many Americans have built up considerable retirement savings. The median 401(k) amount for anyone in their 40s-60s is six figures (see graph below):

a graph of green barsAnd when you’ve got a good chunk saved and your dream home is right there, reaching for it can feel like an easy call.

But dipping into your retirement savings to buy a home could cost you a penalty and set back your finances later on. That’s why it’s a good idea to explore other options for your down payment first. As Redfin says: 

If you’re struggling to save enough for a down payment, you may be wondering if tapping into your 401(k) is the right option. While it’s possible, doing so comes with significant risks, like early withdrawal penalties and lost investment growth.

Before you decide, have a financial advisor help you compare the upsides to the risks. Bankrate points to a few of each (see visual):

a screenshot of a computer screen

Other Options Worth Exploring First

Your 401(k) isn’t the only way to finance a home purchase. Redfin outlines a few other options to look into before you decide what to do:

  • Low and No-Down Payment Loans: FHA loans, for example, allow qualified buyers to put down as little as 3.5% of the home’s price, depending on their credit scores.

  • Down Payment Assistance Programs: Many national and local programs can help reduce what you pay toward your down payment or closing costs.

Make a Plan Before You Make a Move

No matter which route you take, talk with a financial expert first. The buyers who come out ahead build a solid plan with the right professionals before starting their journey to homeownership. As NerdWallet puts it:

Even if you’re convinced a 401(k) loan is the way to go, it’s important to understand the risks at the outset.

Bottom Line

Affordability is definitely a challenge, but that doesn’t mean tapping your 401(k) is your only way in if you want to buy.

If you’re considering using your 401(k) savings for a down payment, weigh all your options and talk with a trusted financial advisor before you make any decisions. They’ll help you make a plan to fit your goals and your budget. 

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Affordability

Sellers Are Cutting Prices To Meet Buyers Where They’re At

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You’re scrolling through listings on your phone and everything looks good until you see the price (or the estimated monthly payment). Then you close the app. 

Because even if you love the house, the numbers feel impossible. But here’s the thing.

Nationally, there are more homes sitting on the market than there are people out there looking. And when sellers need buyers more than buyers need sellers, that shows up in the price.

Lower asking prices. More price cuts. And homes priced for what buyers can actually afford – not what sellers hope someone might pay.

And it may be enough to make buying more doable than you’d think. 

4 Out of 10 Sellers Are Cutting Their Price 

One of the clearest signs sellers are adjusting? Price cuts. HousingWire Data shows more than 40% of sellers are dropping this price.

That’s just slightly behind the volume we saw last year (see graph below):

a graph of a price reduction

That’s more than 4 out of every 10 homes listed. Think about what that means. That’s thousands of sellers deciding they’d rather lower their asking price than keep waiting for someone willing to stretch their budget. 

They know that to sell, they have to be willing to do some give and take. And when no buyers are biting, they’re pulling their biggest lever to draw buyers back in – their price. As Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, explains:

“This is a market where people are adjusting and showing up rather than giving up. Sellers are meeting the market with more realistic asking prices, which is helping deals get done.”

This July Saw the Lowest Median List Price for Any July in Five Years

What about the other 6 in 10 sellers? A lot of them started with a lower asking price to begin with rather than test the higher price and get crickets from buyers.

That may be why July 2026 had the lowest median list price of any July in the past five years, according to Realtor.com (see the white line in the graph below):

a graph of sales and prices

Now, that doesn’t mean home values are falling or that everything’s suddenly a steal. Prices are still above where they were before the pandemic. But what it does mean is this.

Sellers no longer banking on bidding wars or expecting buyers to pay whatever they ask. Instead, many are listing at prices that better reflect today’s market from the very beginning. 

And honestly, whether they’re pricing competitively from day one or adjusting after a few weeks on the market, the message for you is the same:

Sellers are more willing to meet you where you’re at.

Because in many markets throughout the country, you’re not fighting over a house anymore. Sellers are fighting over you. And that’s information you can use to get a better deal.

Yes, affordability can be a real challenge. And the monthly payment you take on definitely does matter. But if you’ve been assuming everything is out of budget, there may be more wiggle room than you think.

Bottom Line

Right now, sellers are flexible on the price in ways they weren’t before. Reach out to a local agent to take advantage of that flexibility.

You may be surprised by what’s available – and how willing today’s sellers are to work with buyers.

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Affordability

Here’s Why Mortgage Rates Are What They Are Right Now

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If you’re waiting for mortgage rates to fall a lot before you buy, you may be waiting a while. But before you get discouraged, there’s a number working behind the scenes that’s actually good for you right now. It’s called the spread, and once you understand it, you may see today’s rates in a whole new light.

The Pattern That’s Held for 50+ Years

For starters, mortgage rates don’t move on their own. They tend to follow the 10-year treasury yield, a number tied to how investors feel about the economy.

It’s not an exact science, since plenty of other factors can move it day to day, but broadly speaking, when the economy looks strong, that yield tends to climb over time. When the outlook gets shaky, it tends to ease. For over 50 years, the 10-year treasury yield and mortgage rates have moved almost in lockstep (see graph below):

a graph of a graph showing the number of mortgage rates

The gap between them is called the “spread.” On average, that gap runs about 1.76 percentage points. And that spread impacts your mortgage rate. A wider spread tends to push mortgage rates higher than the treasury yield alone would suggest, while a narrower spread keeps rates closer to the treasury yield.

One of the Big Reasons Rates Likely Won’t Drop Dramatically Anytime Soon

If you’re hoping mortgage rates will drop a lot, here’s the reality – they probably won’t, at least not anytime soon. One of the big reasons why comes down to that spread between the 10-year treasury yield and mortgage rates.

A few years ago, that gap got a lot wider as uncertainty in the economy pushed it as high as 3.19 points in 2023.

Now here’s the part worth noting – that gap has been narrowing lately. It’s down to about 2.01, just above the long-term average of 1.76 (see graph below):

a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of

When the gap is wide, there’s more room for rates to fall. But when it’s relatively normal, like it is now, there’s less wiggle room for rates to fall.

Why Mortgage Rates Aren’t Higher Right Now

Today’s mortgage rate is basically the treasury yield plus the spread. So, when either one moves, your rate moves with it. Here are 3 different rates, all built off today’s 10-year treasury yield of 4.68% to show you just how much the spread matters for your bottom line (see graph below):

a graph of a graph showing a rate of interest

If the spread were still stretched out like it was in 2023, rates would be pushing close to 8% right now. That’s because the spread was over a full point wider than it is today.

But now, thanks to the spread narrowing recently, today’s rate sits around 6.69%. That’s the middle scenario in that visual. That’s a big difference in your monthly payment compared what we could see if the spread was as big as it was 2023. As Logan Mohtashami, Lead Analyst at HousingWire, put it:

“Of course, mortgage spreads being better in 2026 is the housing hero story of the year . . .”

Now compare that middle bar to the 3rd one. If the spread were sitting at its exact long-term average, rates would be around 6.5%. That’s only about a quarter of a point away from where rates actually are today. That means most of the improvement in mortgage rates we should realistically expect from a shrinking spread has already happened.

In other words, the same narrowing spread that’s the reason rates aren’t close to 8% today is also a big reason why they’re not likely to fall a lot further.

Bottom Line

That’s the trade-off with a narrowing spread. Rates may not be where you want them, but they’re better than they could’ve been. If you want help figuring out what that means for your monthly payment, reach out to a local lender

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.