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Affordability

The Truth About Affordability Today

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Let’s be real with each other for a second about affordability. Because you deserve someone who will be honest and transparent about what’s going on, especially if you’ve got a move on your mind.

Here’s the full picture of what’s happening and why. The good – and the bad. So, you know what it truly means for your move. Because while rates are certainly a big part of affordability, they’re not the only factor at play.

Mortgage Rates Have Been Rising

After a year or more of rates trending down, they’ve started to climb again. And, if you’re looking to buy, that’s not what you want to see. But it has happened. And here’s why.

Uncertainty is the enemy of mortgage rates.

And with lingering global uncertainty, ongoing tensions in the Middle East, and inflation refusing to fully cool off, there’s a lot that’s having an effect on rates. Colin Robertson, Founder of The Truth About Mortgage, put it plainly:

“You can’t have $100 a barrel oil and not expect inflation to rise, which translates to higher bond yields and mortgage rates.”

Take a look at the graph below. It uses data from Mortgage News Daily to show just how much all of those factors have had an impact:

a graph with a line and a green arrowIt’s a pretty sharp contrast from where we’ve been, in a relatively short window. And it’s probably making you wonder: Should I just wait this out? Will rates fall when the uncertainty eases?

It’s possible. But it all depends on how the ongoing geopolitical conflict plays out and whether inflation continues to run hot afterwards – and for how long.

Rates probably aren’t heading down until both of those things improve. And even when that does happen, experts agree rates likely won’t be dramatically lower – maybe in the low to mid-6s. That’s the reality, and it’s worth knowing.

So, should you wait for lower rates? The general consensus is, if you can afford to buy and you find a home you like, it’s still worth it. Because no one knows for sure when rates will start to come back down – and how long do you really want to put your life on hold?

Wages Are Outpacing Home Prices

You’ve probably heard that inflation is making everything more expensive, and there’s no shortage of headlines about the cost-of-living outpacing paychecks. It’s a legitimate concern. And maybe you’re feeling the pinch yourself. But here’s what doesn’t make the headlines. It’s not all bad news.

Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Redfin shows wages have actually been growing faster than home prices.

  • Recently, wages have been increasing at around 4% year-over-year. 

  • And home price growth is closer to 2% year-over-year.

As a buyer, you want your income to rise faster than prices because that helps make your purchase more manageable financially, and it quietly chips away at the affordability challenge over time. That’s exactly what we’re seeing lately. And every little bit is going to help.

A big reason wages have been gaining ground on home prices? Home prices have actually stayed pretty steady.

Existing Home Prices Have Held Steady

Check out the graph below. It shows home price data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) over the past 4 years. Notice anything? There’s been no dramatic runup, and no crash either. Just relative stability and slow growth:

a graph of blue lines

Part of what’s keeping prices this stable is that buyers finally have more choices. That means less competition, more negotiating power, and more time to find the home that actually fits your life, not just the one you had to grab before someone else did.

And that gives you a chance to hopefully find something that works for your budget, even with today’s rates. At the same time, you’re not losing ground pricewise while you take time to make a careful decision.

Bottom Line

Yes, rates have been volatile, and global instability is keeping them from settling down anytime soon. There’s no sugarcoating that. But the full picture of affordability is more nuanced than the headlines suggest.

Want to run the real numbers for your situation? Talk with a local real estate agent. They’d love to show you what’s actually possible in today’s market. Reach out to set up a quick, no-pressure conversation.

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Affordability

Why Most People Are Still Glad They Bought a Home

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With everything going on, it’s understandable if you’re wondering if you’d regret buying right now. 

Everyday expenses cost more. Mortgage rates are higher than you’d like. And when the economy feels uncertain, taking on a mortgage can feel like a much bigger leap. But here’s some perspective that may help…

Most people who already made that leap would do it again.

According to a recent survey from NerdWallet, the vast majority of recent buyers (74%) were glad they bought their current home. Only a very small 3% of people regret it:

a graph with text on it

And here’s a big reason why so many people feel it was worth it, even now.

Homeownership Is a Long-Term Play

When you’re deciding whether to buy, it’s easy to focus on what’s happening right now. What’s today’s mortgage rate? Are prices going up or down? Those things matter. But don’t get so caught up in buying in the perfect moment that you miss the bigger picture.

A home isn’t typically something you buy for just a year or two. It’s a longer-term play. And when you zoom out, it all starts to fall into perspective – especially if you look at home prices and equity.

According to data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), home prices nationally have risen 33.4% over just the past five years (see map below):

a map of the united states

And that appreciation has helped current homeowners build some serious wealth. Research from Bankrate shows homeowners gained an average of nearly $150,000 in wealth over the past five years as equity steadily rose across 90% of major metro areas.

That’s one of the biggest benefits of homeownership. As you pay down your mortgage and your home appreciates over time, your ownership stake – your equity – can grow.

Now, Zoom Out Even Further

The five-year numbers are impressive. But the numbers get even more dramatic when you look at decades instead of individual market cycles.

FHFA data shows home prices nationally have risen 336% since 1991. Sit with that for a second. Three hundred percent (see map below):

a map of the united states with numbers and a number of states 

That doesn’t mean prices go up every single year. And it doesn’t mean buying is automatically the right decision for everyone today. You should only buy when the numbers (and the payment) work for you.

What it does show is why trying to perfectly time the market can make you miss the bigger picture. 

Over time, homeowners gain a lot of equity. And that equity can eventually become a powerful financial resource. As Freddie Mac explains: 

“Your home’s equity is part of your total wealth as a homeowner. If you decide to sell your home, the equity you have built over time will come back to you in the sale. . .

If it’s time to upsize or downsize, you can use that cash for the down payment on your next home.”

Basically, if you can afford to do it, buying a home now could set you up for future moves.

And just in case you’re someone who’s worried about what happens if prices do fall, after you buy, remember: you’re not buying for one year.

Prices can dip. They have before. But historically, they’ve risen far more over the long run. And the longer you own your home, the more time you have to ride out those ups and downs and keep building equity.

Bottom Line

Don’t let today’s uncertainty make you lose sight of what homeownership can do over time. Most homeowners say they’d make the same choice again. And decades of home-price growth help explain why.

If you’re wondering whether buying makes sense for you right now, connect with an agent to look at the numbers together – and what owning a home could mean for you in the years ahead.

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Affordability

Myth vs. Reality: Does the Fed Control Mortgage Rates?

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You’ve probably heard the Federal Reserve (the Fed) is raising rates again. And if you’re planning to buy or sell a house, you may be wondering what that means for you.

With all the headlines, it’s easy to think the Fed sets mortgage rates. That’s actually a common myth. But the Fed’s decisions can still have an impact on them.

So, where does that leave you? The next few months could get a little bumpy. But the Fed is playing the long game. And with the right plan, you can still make a move that works. Let’s break it down.

Why the Fed Is Raising Rates

It all comes back to inflation. With prices rising fast, everything is getting more expensive – and that leaves buyers with less spending power and makes homes cost more to build.

So, the Fed raises its key short-term rate (the Federal Funds Rate) to slow down inflation. And that’s where a lot of people get tripped up.

  • MYTH: The Fed controls mortgage rates.

  • REALITY: The Fed has an impact on mortgage rates, but it’s only one piece of the puzzle.

As NerdWallet explains:

“The Federal Reserve influences mortgage rates, but doesn’t set them. . . Mortgage rates are influenced by many elements, including the inflation rate, the pace of job creation, and whether the economy is growing or shrinking. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is a factor, too . . .”

Here’s the simplest way to explain how it all fits together. Mortgage rates tend to follow something called the 10-year treasury yield. That’s the return investors get for lending money to the government for 10 years. And that yield moves up and down based on what investors expect from inflation and the economy.

Right now, one of the biggest things moving that yield is the conflict in Iran. It’s pushed oil prices higher, which has investors worried about inflation. That’s why any news about the conflict can move mortgage rates. If there’s resolution in Iran, that could take some pressure off inflation and mortgage rates. But the timing is hard to predict.

What the Fed does can move that yield, too. When they hike the Federal Funds Rate to fight inflation, investors pay attention. That can push the 10-year yield up, and mortgage rates usually follow. But once inflation cools, the yield has room to come back down, and mortgage rates can, too. That gives buyers some of their purchasing power back (see graphic below):

a diagram of a federal funds rate

Think of it as a little pain today to set up some relief down the road. But how long could that short-term pain last? A lot depends on what the Fed does next.

There’s a Strong Possibility the Fed Will Hike Again This Year

According to CME FedWatch, there’s over an 80% chance the Fed hikes their federal funds rate at least once more before the end of 2026 (see graph below):

a graph of hikers with blue squares

Remember, the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates. But another hike will likely keep upward pressure on them in the short term. So, should you wait it out? Sam Williamson, Senior Economist at First American, says this:

“Over time, firmer Fed action could help steady the bond market and open the door to lower mortgage rates, but only if investors become more confident that inflation is coming under control.“

And there are some early signs that’s starting to happen. Inflation cooled faster than experts expected in August:

  • PCE inflation dropped to 3.4%, down from 3.7% in July.

  • Core PCE (the Fed’s preferred measure which leaves out food and energy prices) fell to 3%, down from 3.3%.

That’s a step in the right direction, and it’s part of why the odds of a hike at the Fed’s October meeting have come down recently. But inflation’s still above the Fed’s 2% target, and it’s been that way for about 5 years. So, lower rates could still take a while. Your best bet is a plan that works at today’s rates.

How To Make Your Move Work Right Now

While this rate hike cycle isn’t the headline you want to see, it doesn’t mean you have to wait. There are still ways to move, even now.

  • If you’re buying: Get pre-approved so you know your real budget. Ask your lender about your options to get the best rate possible. And once you’re under contract, lock your rate so a jump before closing doesn’t raise your payment.

  • If you’re selling: Decide what matters most to you – a quick sale or top dollar. Each one can call for a different plan. Price for today’s buyers, whose budgets are smaller with higher rates. And think about offering a rate buydown or other concession. They can do more for a buyer’s budget than a price cut.

Bottom Line

The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, but its hikes can keep them higher for a while. The goal is to bring inflation, and eventually rates, down over time. With more hikes likely this year, waiting may not pay off. So, connect with a local real estate agent to map out a plan that works at today’s rates.

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Affordability

Two Moves That Can Get You Into Your First Home Sooner

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For a lot of first-time buyers, owning a home can feel perpetually a few years out of reach. Saving for a down payment takes time, and each year you spend renting can make owning feel further off.

But buying your first home doesn’t have to happen to feel like a far away goal. Two choices you control can bring your first home years closer, even with affordability as tight as it is right now.

How Long Buying Really Takes

First, one quick definition. “Breaking even” is the point where owning has cost you about the same as renting would have over the same period. And after that point, owning starts to cost less than renting. Kara Ng, Senior Economist at Zillow, puts it this way:

“Buyers should think about not just when they can afford to buy, but how long they’d need to stay before owning makes more financial sense than renting.“

So how long does reaching that point usually take? And what are the shortcuts? Let’s do the math.

According to Zillow, it usually takes about 8.5 years to save for a 20% down payment, then roughly 6.2 more years before owning costs the same as renting. Together, that’s just under 15 years. But that math relies on two assumptions: that you’re buying a mid-priced home, and that you’re putting 20% down. 

Change either one and your timeline gets shorter. Change both and it can shrink fast. It also varies widely by market, since local prices and rents are different depending on where you live. 

A Starter Home Can Get You There Twice as Fast

A starter home usually means a home in the lower third of local prices. They’re often condos, townhomes, or single-family homes a little smaller or older than others in the area. 

Choosing one over a mid-priced home can cut your wait down by a lot. And while that might sound obvious, you may not realize just how much it shortens your timeline. Because if you’re buying a more affordable home, you don’t have to save up as much or as long.

Zillow found that nationwide, a starter home takes half the time – about 7.2 years – to save for and come out ahead on, compared with renting (see graph below):

a graph of a number of squares

That works out to about 4.6 years to save and 2.6 years to break even. It won’t erase every affordability challenge, but it can take years off the wait. And if you’ve already been saving for a while, it could get you closer to making it a reality.

You Usually Don’t Need To Put 20% Down

You, like many first-time homebuyers, might assume you need a 20% down payment to even consider buying. But a lot of the time, you don’t. 

Most first-time buyers don’t put down anywhere near that. The National Association of Realtors shows the median down payment for first-time buyers is 10% (see graph below):

a graph of a sales report

And the minimums go lower still. Some buyers put down as little as 3% on a conventional loan or 3.5% on an FHA loan, and eligible veterans or buyers in certain rural areas can put down nothing at all.

There’s help with the upfront costs of buying, too. Down Payment Resource counts 2,746 assistance programs nationwide, and some are even stackable:

“Some homebuyers can layer multiple sources of assistance to reduce their upfront costs. Layering means combining more than one eligible source of funding as part of your home purchase.”

Put those together – a lower price point, a smaller down payment, and help covering it – and the years you thought you needed start to come down.

Bottom Line

Your first home may not be as far off as it feels. When the numbers make sense for you, buying a starter home and putting down less than 20% can get you there years sooner. 

Want to see which starter homes in your area could fit your budget? A local real estate agent can show you.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.