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Affordability

What Rising Inflation Means for Your Move

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Data shows inflation is moving in the wrong direction. But before the headlines send anyone into a panic, here’s what’s actually going on, why it matters for the housing market, and what it means if you’re thinking about buying or selling.

Inflation Went Up – Here’s What That Actually Means

The government tracks inflation in a variety of ways. One is something called PCE – the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. It measures how much more (or less) people are paying for goods and services compared to a year ago. And just based on your own expenses, you can probably guess which way that’s trending.

That’s the one everyone is talking about right now. Check out the yellow line to see how that’s spiked since February (see graph below). A big driver of this jump is the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has pushed gas and energy prices significantly higher.

a graph with blue and yellow lines

Now, you may have noticed there’s a second line. The blue line shows core PCE. That’s the same measure, but with gas and energy prices stripped out. The Federal Reserve (the Fed) actually watches this number most closely because energy prices swing around a lot and can be misleading.

And here’s the somewhat encouraging part.

Core PCE is rising, but not nearly as fast as the overall number. That suggests a good chunk of the inflation spike we’re seeing right now is tied directly to what’s happening overseas. So, when that situation settles down, inflation may settle a bit, too.

Why This Matters for Mortgage Rates

Here’s the housing connection. When inflation is high, the Fed tends to keep the Federal Funds Rate elevated or even raise it to try to taper spending and cool inflation back down. And while it’s not a one-for-one relationship, that Federal Funds Rate can have an impact on your mortgage rate when you buy. 

Right now, based on the information we have, there’s roughly a 50/50 chance the Fed actually raises the Federal Funds Rate before the end of 2026, according to CME FedWatch (see graph below):

a graph of blue squares

While it’s too soon to say where this goes for certain and if we’re headed for a rate hike, it does mean mortgage rates are probably not coming down as soon as most people were hoping.

If you’ve been waiting for rates to drop significantly before making a move, this report is a reminder that “higher for longer” is still very much on the table. It really all depends on where the economy goes from here. According to Bankrate:

“Oil prices and bond yields have dropped a bit . . . but they’re still way up compared to the start of spring. Until there’s a resolution to the war, look for both inflation and mortgage rates to stay high.

But This Is Not 2008 – Not Even Close

Just remember, a tough economy does not equal a housing crash. The conditions today are very different from what led to the 2008 collapse. Here’s why:

  • Inventory is still relatively low. There’s no flood of homes hitting the market.

  • Most homeowners today have strong equity in their homes.

  • Lending standards are far stricter than they were before 2008.

  • Today’s challenge is affordability, not a wave of distressed underwater sellers.

Uncomfortable and unhealthy are not the same thing. The market feels hard right now, but “hard” and “crashing” are very different.

You Still Have Options. Here’s What To Do.

High rates don’t mean homeownership is out of reach. It just means the path looks a little different. There are real strategies that can help, depending on your situation:

  • Ask your lender about different loan options. Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) or rate buydowns may help lower your monthly payment in the short term.

  • Explore first-time buyer programs, down payment assistance, or seller concessions that could help offset costs.

  • Stay in close touch with a trusted agent and lender. When rates shift, and they will, you’ll want to be ready to move fast.

The right strategy, tailored to your goals, matters a lot more than waiting for the perfect moment that may never come.

Bottom Line

Inflation is still above where the Fed wants it, and that means mortgage rates are likely to stay elevated for a while. But for people who need to move, strategy matters far more than trying to perfectly time the market.

Wondering what this means for your specific situation? Connect with a local agent or lender.

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Affordability

Think New Homes Cost More? Not Right Now.

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Most people think a newly built home costs more than an existing one. But right now, that’s actually backwards. Newly built homes are more affordable than existing ones in a lot of markets. And that’s because builders are cutting prices and stacking on incentives to try to keep their inventory moving.

Here’s why that’s really important for any would-be homebuyer to know.

Newly Built Homes Are the Better Deal Right Now

According to the latest data from the Census and the National Association of Realtors (NAR), a newly built home now typically costs about $40,000 less than an existing one (see graph below):

a graph of a house costBuilders aren’t like homeowners who can wait for the right offer. Unsold homes cost them money as long as they sit empty. So, builders cut prices and add incentives to keep them moving. That trend has carried into August. NAHB’s latest numbers:

  • 35% of builders cut prices, with an average reduction of 6%. 

  • 63% offered incentives like covering closing costs or buying down your mortgage rate. 

And those incentives can make a real dent in what you pay upfront and every month after. Plus, since everything is new and many builders offer warranties, you could save on home maintenance costs too. And with affordability where it is, every dollar counts.

So, don’t cross new builds off your list just yet. Yes, you may think they cost more, but that’s not always the case. 

If you can get brand-new everything for less than buying an existing home, isn’t that at least worth looking into? 

Don’t Let the Builder Pick Your Teammate

But before you tour a single model home, there’s one thing worth figuring out first – who’s actually working for you once you walk through that door.

That friendly rep in the builder’s sales office works for the builder, not you. Their job is to protect the builder’s bottom line, not yours. Your own agent flips that. 

They know the local market, so they can tell you if the builder’s price and upgrades stack up against other options nearby. They’ll negotiate on your behalf, whether that’s a lower price, free upgrades, or a rate buydown. 

A good agent will also push for a home inspection. Builders won’t always bring it up, but it’s a step you shouldn’t skip, even on a new build. And your agent will be in your corner, so you know what you’re buying and get the best deal possible. 

Bottom Line

New homes may actually cost less than an existing home right now. And that’s opening up a window for you to get brand-new for less.

If you want a list of new home communities near you that are currently offering incentives or doing price cuts, reach out to a local agent. When you have your own agent, you’ll have someone in your corner helping you get the best deal possible.  

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Affordability

Thinking About Tapping into Your 401(k) To Buy a Home? Read This First.

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Lately, headlines have floated an eye-catching idea about tapping into your 401(k) to cover a down payment on a home. Maybe you’ve caught the buzz and wondered whether that money could get you into a home faster, especially with affordability as tough as it is. 

Here’s what you need to remember. Pulling from your retirement savings is a big decision, so take time to weigh all your options first and be sure to talk with a financial expert before you do anything.

Why Dipping into a 401(k) Can Be Tempting

Data from Empower shows many Americans have built up considerable retirement savings. The median 401(k) amount for anyone in their 40s-60s is six figures (see graph below):

a graph of green barsAnd when you’ve got a good chunk saved and your dream home is right there, reaching for it can feel like an easy call.

But dipping into your retirement savings to buy a home could cost you a penalty and set back your finances later on. That’s why it’s a good idea to explore other options for your down payment first. As Redfin says: 

If you’re struggling to save enough for a down payment, you may be wondering if tapping into your 401(k) is the right option. While it’s possible, doing so comes with significant risks, like early withdrawal penalties and lost investment growth.

Before you decide, have a financial advisor help you compare the upsides to the risks. Bankrate points to a few of each (see visual):

a screenshot of a computer screen

Other Options Worth Exploring First

Your 401(k) isn’t the only way to finance a home purchase. Redfin outlines a few other options to look into before you decide what to do:

  • Low and No-Down Payment Loans: FHA loans, for example, allow qualified buyers to put down as little as 3.5% of the home’s price, depending on their credit scores.

  • Down Payment Assistance Programs: Many national and local programs can help reduce what you pay toward your down payment or closing costs.

Make a Plan Before You Make a Move

No matter which route you take, talk with a financial expert first. The buyers who come out ahead build a solid plan with the right professionals before starting their journey to homeownership. As NerdWallet puts it:

Even if you’re convinced a 401(k) loan is the way to go, it’s important to understand the risks at the outset.

Bottom Line

Affordability is definitely a challenge, but that doesn’t mean tapping your 401(k) is your only way in if you want to buy.

If you’re considering using your 401(k) savings for a down payment, weigh all your options and talk with a trusted financial advisor before you make any decisions. They’ll help you make a plan to fit your goals and your budget. 

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Affordability

Sellers Are Cutting Prices To Meet Buyers Where They’re At

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You’re scrolling through listings on your phone and everything looks good until you see the price (or the estimated monthly payment). Then you close the app. 

Because even if you love the house, the numbers feel impossible. But here’s the thing.

Nationally, there are more homes sitting on the market than there are people out there looking. And when sellers need buyers more than buyers need sellers, that shows up in the price.

Lower asking prices. More price cuts. And homes priced for what buyers can actually afford – not what sellers hope someone might pay.

And it may be enough to make buying more doable than you’d think. 

4 Out of 10 Sellers Are Cutting Their Price 

One of the clearest signs sellers are adjusting? Price cuts. HousingWire Data shows more than 40% of sellers are dropping this price.

That’s just slightly behind the volume we saw last year (see graph below):

a graph of a price reduction

That’s more than 4 out of every 10 homes listed. Think about what that means. That’s thousands of sellers deciding they’d rather lower their asking price than keep waiting for someone willing to stretch their budget. 

They know that to sell, they have to be willing to do some give and take. And when no buyers are biting, they’re pulling their biggest lever to draw buyers back in – their price. As Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, explains:

“This is a market where people are adjusting and showing up rather than giving up. Sellers are meeting the market with more realistic asking prices, which is helping deals get done.”

This July Saw the Lowest Median List Price for Any July in Five Years

What about the other 6 in 10 sellers? A lot of them started with a lower asking price to begin with rather than test the higher price and get crickets from buyers.

That may be why July 2026 had the lowest median list price of any July in the past five years, according to Realtor.com (see the white line in the graph below):

a graph of sales and prices

Now, that doesn’t mean home values are falling or that everything’s suddenly a steal. Prices are still above where they were before the pandemic. But what it does mean is this.

Sellers no longer banking on bidding wars or expecting buyers to pay whatever they ask. Instead, many are listing at prices that better reflect today’s market from the very beginning. 

And honestly, whether they’re pricing competitively from day one or adjusting after a few weeks on the market, the message for you is the same:

Sellers are more willing to meet you where you’re at.

Because in many markets throughout the country, you’re not fighting over a house anymore. Sellers are fighting over you. And that’s information you can use to get a better deal.

Yes, affordability can be a real challenge. And the monthly payment you take on definitely does matter. But if you’ve been assuming everything is out of budget, there may be more wiggle room than you think.

Bottom Line

Right now, sellers are flexible on the price in ways they weren’t before. Reach out to a local agent to take advantage of that flexibility.

You may be surprised by what’s available – and how willing today’s sellers are to work with buyers.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.