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The 1 Factor That Explains Everything Happening with Home Prices Right Now

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You’ve probably heard that home prices are cooling off. And that’s true – nationally. But zoom in on individual markets across the country, and the picture looks completely different depending on where you are.

Some areas are still seeing solid price growth. Others have gone flat. A few have actually dipped slightly negative. So, what’s causing all of that variation? 

It All Comes Down to Inventory

Here’s the simple version:

  1. When there are more homes for sale, buyers have options.

  2. More options, means less competition.

  3. Less competition means sellers can’t push prices as high.

On the flip side, when inventory is tight, buyers are competing over a small pool of homes, and that pushes prices up.

That dynamic is playing out right now in a really visible way across the country. 

Markets where inventory has climbed back to, or above, normal pre-pandemic levels are seeing prices flatten or fall slightly. Markets where inventory is still well below those 2019 benchmarks are still seeing prices rise. As Lance Lambert, CEO of ResiClub, puts it:

“Home prices are still climbing a little year-over-year in many regions where active inventory remains well below pre-pandemic 2019 levels, such as pockets of the Northeast and Midwest.

In contrast, some pockets in states like Texas, Florida, and Colorado — where active inventory exceeds pre-pandemic 2019 levels by a solid clip — are seeing modest home price pullbacks or flat pricing.”

The Maps Say It All 

Take a look at where inventory stands today compared to 2019. In most places (the states in gray below), inventory still falls short of where we were back then. And that’s exactly why prices are climbing, albeit moderately, in the vast majority of states.

But you’re probably more interested in where prices are falling a bit, since that’s what is making headlines. So, let’s prove out how much inventory affects prices in those spots.

According to Realtor.com, 15 states and Washington, D.C. are now back above pre-pandemic inventory levels, and some by a wide margin (see the orange in the map below):

a map of the united statesNow, let’s look at the latest Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) data to see what’s happened to home prices in those same states over the past year (again, you’ll want to focus on the orange in the next map). 

See how those line up pretty closely with the areas seeing more homes for sale today?

The overlap isn’t a coincidence. It’s cause and effect. 

a map of the united states

The national average of 1.7% price growth is accurate, but it’s an average of two very different stories happening at the same time – the few areas experiencing mild declines and the overwhelming majority that are still seeing prices rise.

What This Means If You’re Buying or Selling 

If you’re a buyer, the market you’re shopping in matters a lot right now. In places like Texas, Colorado, or Florida, you may have real negotiating power – more choices, less competition, and sellers who are more motivated to make a deal. In tighter markets like much of the Northeast, you’re still likely facing a lot of competition.

If you’re a seller, pricing strategy is everything. In markets where inventory has risen, overpricing is one of the fastest ways to linger on the market and eventually sell for less than you would have with the right price from day one. In markets where inventory is still low, you’re in a strong spot, but getting your price right still matters if you want to attract serious buyers quickly. Either way, that’s where a local real estate agent earns their keep.

Bottom Line

When it comes to prices, where you are matters more than ever right now, and a local real estate agent is the best person to help you make sense of it.

Reach out to a local real estate agent today and work together to build a plan that fits your market.

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Affordability

3 Things You Can Actually Control About Your Mortgage Rate Right Now

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If you’re trying to buy a home, affordability is probably what keeps you up at night. And as you watch mortgage rates tick up again lately, it’s fair to wonder if you should just hit pause and wait for them to go down.

For now, though, they’re headed the other way. Mortgage News Daily data shows how rates have risen this year (see graph below):

a graph of a moving rate

And if you’re wondering why? There are actually a number of reasons. 

Mortgage rates are impacted by the situation overseas, economic data, inflation numbers, oil prices, and even decisions from the Federal Reserve (who recently decided to hike their Fed Funds Rate – which often affects mortgage rates too). As Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, explains:

“The pressure on mortgage rates was here even before the Fed rate hike, and it doesn’t show signs of relenting. . .”

Now, that’s probably not what you wanted to hear. But, it doesn’t mean there’s nothing you can do. While you can’t control where rates go from here, you absolutely can control several things that shape the rate you actually get. 

So where should you focus? Let’s walk through it.

Work on Your Credit Score

Your credit score plays a big role in the rate you qualify for, and even a small improvement can make a real difference in your monthly payment. As Freddie Mac puts it:

Generally, the higher your credit score the more options will be available to you, including better loan terms and a lower interest rate.

So, make sure you do what you can to keep your credit score up. If you’re not sure where your score stands right now, or how to improve it, talk to a trusted loan officer.

Explore Your Loan Options

The type and term of your loan both affect your rate. Conventional, FHA, VA, and USDA loans each come with their own requirements and rates, and your term (15, 20, or 30 years) changes both your payment and the total interest you’ll pay. The structure matters, too. A fixed-rate loan holds the same rate over time, while an adjustable-rate loan usually starts lower and can move later on. Bankrate explains it this way:

. . . rates on fixed-rate loans are typically higher than introductory rates on adjustable-rate loans because the fixed-rate lender takes on the risk that rates could increase during the loan’s term. Likewise, government-backed FHA, VA and USDA loans sometimes have lower rates because they have a government guarantee or insurance that cuts the lender’s risk.

It’s important to explore your options with a lender to see what makes the most sense for you. Just be sure to balance your goals, your possible rate, and any potential tradeoffs before making any decision. You may even want to talk to multiple lenders to see how the options vary. 

Consider a Newly Built Home

Another path to a lower rate comes down to the kind of home you buy. Many builders are buying down mortgage rates, which lowers your monthly payment. It’s just one way they’re trying to attract buyers and get their homes sold.

According to Realtor.com, buyers of newly built homes landed a lower average rate last quarter than buyers of existing homes (see graph below):

a graph of a graph showing a number of houses

If a lower rate is your goal, it may be worth asking your agent to show you some new build communities that are offering this type of incentive locally.

Bottom Line

You can’t control where mortgage rates go, but you can control your credit, your loan, and the kind of home you buy. Working with a trusted lender can help you lock in the best rate you qualify for. And when you’re ready to make a move that fits your budget, connect with a local real estate agent.

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Affordability

The Best Time To Buy a Home in 2026 Is Almost Here

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Want to buy a house this year, but not sure if the timing’s right? Seasonally, it may actually be a better time to buy than you expect.

Yes, mortgage rates have been ticking up lately – and that’s creating some real challenges with affordability. No one’s arguing that. But there are also predictable trends that happen this time every year that can put some wind back in your sails.

According to research coming out of Realtor.com, nationally, the week of September 27 – October 3 will be the best time to buy this year for this very reason:

The week of September 27–October 3 brings together the market conditions buyers value most—elevated inventory, less competition and prices that have eased from their seasonal high—giving prepared buyers a way to offset high rates with savings on price and room to negotiate with confidence.”

But that’s the national best week. Depending on where you live, your local sweet spot may come a little earlier or later (see map below):

a map of the united states with pins

It all depends on local trends and how inventory and buyer demand ebbs and flows seasonally where you want to live. But no matter when your market hits its peak, here are some of the perks you can expect this time of year.

More Choices, Better Prices, and Less Competition

For starters, there are more homes to choose from. In fact, data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows the number of homes for sale recently reached its highest level in more than 10 years:

“NAR’s data does show a strong uptick in for-sale inventory at the end of the summer, reaching the highest level in more than 10 years.”

That means you may have a better shot at finding something you love and can afford without making as many compromises. And that’s not the only advantage.

Realtor.com says buyers during this window could see home prices about $14,000 lower than the summer peak, along with 30% less competition from other buyers. Plus, homes tend to stay on the market almost 2 weeks longer (13 days), giving you a little more breathing room to make a decision. 

  • More choices.

  • Better pricing.

  • Less competition.

That combination could be enough to ease some of the pressure higher mortgage rates are putting on your budget.

The Window Doesn’t Close After This One Week

But you certainly don’t have to buy during that very specific window. This isn’t a one-week-only opportunity. History tells us conditions should be tipped in your favor for the entire month of October:

a graph on a dark background

In fact, Realtor.com says 42 of the 50 largest metros see their best week to buy fall sometime during October. So, don’t feel like you have to rush to hit one specific date. Use the time now to get things lined up, then jump in when the timing is right for you. As Guaranteed Rate explains: 

The best time to buy a home depends on your needs. Certain seasons can give you an advantage when starting your homebuying journey.”

Bottom Line

If you want to buy a house this year, there’s still a way to make it happen, even with today’s rates. This fall gives you the chance to get some of the best seasonal perks the market has to offer.

Want help figuring out when those advantages typically show up in your market?

Have a quick conversation with a lender and a local agent about how your market works and the steps you’ll need to take to get ready. 

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Affordability

Remote Work Could Be Your Affordability Answer

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For most first-time buyers, the hardest part of buying a home is making the numbers work. You budget, you save, and the finish line still feels far away. 

But your salary is only half the equation. Where you live shapes what you can afford just as much. And if you can work remotely, you have an advantage a lot of buyers don’t. 

You’re not tied to living where the jobs are, so you can look where your money goes further.

Where You Work Doesn’t Have To Dictate Where You Live

Remote job openings are on the rise. According to FlexJobs, remote job postings climbed 22% from the quarter before. That’s the second quarter in a row of double-digit growth. 

More remote roles mean more people can choose a home base around the life they want to build. As Forbes puts it

“Remote employees, freelancers, consultants, entrepreneurs, and business owners have the flexibility to choose a home base based on the life they want to build, whether that means more space, a lower cost of living, better access to nature, or simply somewhere new.”

And you can use that freedom to look somewhere more affordable.

Your Paycheck Goes Much Further in Some States

Your cost of living – what you spend on housing, groceries, utilities, and the rest of daily life – varies a lot from one state to the next. In some, according to data from Extra Space, it runs far enough below the national average to change what you can afford (see map below):

a map of the united statesTake Mississippi, for example, where the cost of living sits about 17% below average, or West Virginia at roughly 15% below. When day-to-day life costs less, you can put more of your income toward your goals, homeownership included. Relocate Right describes it this way: 

Remote work has fundamentally changed the calculus of where to live. When your employer is in San Francisco, but you can work from anywhere, the question is no longer ‘where are the jobs’ but ‘where does my salary go furthest and what kind of life can I build.'”

For a first-time buyer, working remotely could be a chance to put down roots and finally buy. Because with that kind of flexibility, you get to choose where to live and which places work best for your life and goals. 

What To Weigh Before You Go

A lower cost of living is a great start. But it’s also important to consider the things a budget spreadsheet won’t show you, because a place can look like a great fit on paper and still not feel like home. 

  • Is the internet fast and steady enough to do your job without interruptions? 

  • Will it be easy to make friends and settle into a routine once you arrive?

  • Does it have the amenities you want, like public transportation or decent takeout?

This is where a local real estate agent comes in. They can help you weigh a big move against a nearby one, because every state has more affordable pockets. Sometimes they’re closer than you think.

An agent will know which neighborhoods fit your budget and have the features you’re after, whether that’s walkability, good restaurants, parks, or a nearby farmer’s market. 

Bottom Line

With remote work, where you live can be your decision instead of your employer’s. And that puts more affordable places within reach.

Want to explore where that could take you? Connect with a local real estate agent to see what’s possible.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.