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The Pain of Unemployment: It Will Be Deep, But Not for Long

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There are two crises in this country right now: a health crisis that has forced everyone into their homes and a financial crisis caused by our inability to move around as we normally would. Over 20 million people in the U.S. became instantly unemployed when it was determined that the only way to defeat this horrific virus was to shut down businesses across the nation. One second a person was gainfully employed, a switch was turned, and then the room went dark on their livelihood.

The financial pain so many families are facing right now is deep.

How deep will the pain cut?

Major institutions are forecasting unemployment rates last seen during the Great Depression. Here are a few projections:

  • Goldman Sachs – 15%
  • Merrill Lynch – 10.6%
  • JP Morgan – 8.5%
  • Wells Fargo – 7.3%

How long will the pain last?

As horrific as those numbers are, there is some good news. The pain will be deep, but it won’t last as long as it did after previous crises. Taking the direst projection from Goldman Sachs, we can see that 15% unemployment quickly drops to 6-8% as we head into next year, continues to drop, and then returns to about 4% in 2023.

When we compare that to the length of time it took to get back to work during both the Great Recession (9 years long) and the Great Depression (12 years long), we can see how the current timetable is much more favorable.The Pain of Unemployment: It Will Be Deep, But Not for Long | Simplifying The Market

Bottom Line

It’s devastating to think about how the financial heartache families are going through right now is adding to the uncertainty surrounding their health as well. Hopefully, we will soon have the virus contained and then we will, slowly and safely, return to work.

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Buying Tips

Should I Buy a Home Right Now? Experts Say Prices Are Only Going Up

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At one point or another, you’ve probably heard someone say, “Yesterday was the best time to buy a home, but the next best time is today.”

That’s because nationally, home values continue to rise. And with mortgage rates still stubbornly high and home prices going up, you may be holding out for prices to fall or trying to time the market for that perfect rate. But here’s the truth: waiting for the right moment could cost you in the long run.

Home Prices Are Still Rising – Just at a More Normal Pace

The idea that prices will drop dramatically is wishful thinking in most markets. According to the Home Price Expectations Survey from Fannie Mae, industry analysts are saying prices are projected to keep rising through at least 2029.

While we’re no longer seeing the steep spikes of previous years, experts project a steady and sustainable increase of around 3-4% per year, nationally. And the good news is, this is a much more normal pace – a welcome sign for hopeful buyers (see graph below):

What This Means for You

While it’s tempting to wait it out for prices or mortgage rates to decline before you buy, here’s what you’ll need to consider if you do.

  • Tomorrow’s home prices will be higher than today’s. The longer you wait, the more that purchase price will go up.
  • Waiting for the perfect mortgage rate or a price drop may backfire. Even if rates dip slightly, rising home prices could still make waiting more expensive overall.
  • Buying now means building equity sooner. Home values are rising, which means your investment starts growing as soon as you buy.

Let’s put real numbers into this equation. If you purchase a $400,000 home today, based on these price forecasts, it’s expected to go up in value by more than $83,000 over the next five years. That’s some serious money back in your pocket instead of being left on the sidelines (see graph below):

Why Aren’t Prices Dropping? It’s All About Supply and Demand

Even though there are more homes for sale right now than there were at this time last year, or even last month, there still aren’t enough of them on the market for all the buyers who want to purchase them. And that puts continued upward pressure on prices. As Redfin puts it:

“Prices will rise at a pace similar to that of the second half of 2024 because we don’t expect there to be enough new inventory to meet demand.”

While every market is different, most areas will continue to see moderate price growth. Some may level off a bit, but a major national drop? Not likely.

Bottom Line

Time in the Market Beats Timing the Market

If you’re debating whether to buy now or wait, remember this: real estate rewards those who get in the market, not those who try to time it perfectly.

Yes, today’s housing market has its challenges, but there are ways to make it work —exploring different neighborhoods, considering smaller condos or townhomes, asking your lender about alternative financing, or tapping into down payment assistance programs. The key is making a move when it makes sense for you rather than waiting for a perfect scenario that may never arrive.

Want to take a look at what’s happening with prices in your local market? Whether you’re ready to buy now or just exploring your options, reach out to a local agent so you have a plan in place that’ll set you up for success.

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Buying Tips

Headed Back Into the Office? You May Decide To Move

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It’s no secret that remote work has surged over the last few years. And that flexibility gave a lot of people the freedom to move — and work — from wherever they wanted.

But now, a growing number of companies are requiring employees to return to the office. And that’s leading some people to make decisions about where they live and if they need to move.

How Return-to-Work Policies Are Impacting Housing

During the rise of remote work, a lot of employees took the opportunity to move away from expensive or crowded city centers. Some opted for suburban neighborhoods and larger homes with yards, while others relocated to more rural areas. But lately, more people are returning to the city.

And according to data from Bright MLS, more than half of workers surveyed would have to rethink where they live or deal with long drive times if their job enforced a return-to-office policy (see chart below):

a pie chart with text on it with Crust in the backgroundAnd maybe you’re one of them. If you moved farther out of the city during the work-from-home era, you may be facing a longer commute that you never expected to make daily. Once you’ve done it a few times, you might find it’s something you can get used to and isn’t as bad as you may have thought.

But sometimes, it’s just too hard to make it work — no matter how much you try. A drive or train ride that seemed fine once or twice a week can feel like too much of a grind five days in a row. It may also cost too much to commute so often, take too long, or cut too far into your free time. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, notes:

“During the pandemic, when remote work became the norm, homebuyers were able to move farther out . . . But workers do not have the same flexibility that they used to, and some are going to have to make a tough choice if and when their employer calls them back into the office full-time.”

If you’re thinking you may want to move, don’t stress. Talking to an agent can help you weigh your options. Whether it’s finding a home closer to work, balancing commute time with affordability, or even selling a home in one area to buy in another, having a pro on your side makes the process easier.

Bottom Line

If having to be back in-office has you considering a move, an agent can help you figure out what’s possible and what makes sense for you.

Where do you see yourself living if your commute or work routine needs to change?

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Buying Tips

Is a Newly Built Home Right for You? The Pros and Cons

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When searching for a home, you don’t want to skip over new builds as an option. Right now, there are more newly built homes to choose from than there would normally be in the market. And those added choices come with some pretty incredible benefits. Talking to your agent is the best way to see if this type of home makes sense for you.

Here’s a quick rundown of some things your agent will walk you through – including a few of the top perks of buying a newly built home today and some potential things you’ll want to think about before you ink any contracts.

The Perks of Buying a Newly Built Home 

Customization Options: Many builders allow buyers to choose finishes, layouts, and upgrades so that you can personalize your home to your unique sense of style. This is obviously more of a draw if the home is still under construction, but sometimes you can have a builder agree to some tweaks even after it’s completed.

Less Maintenance and Fewer Repairs: Everything from the roof to the appliances is brand new, which should save you on any upfront maintenance or repair costs — for at least the first few years. Many builders also offer warranties on things like structural components and major systems, to give you extra peace of mind. And not having to worry about this sort of thing is a big perk when everything feels so expensive right now.

Eco-Friendly and Energy-Efficient Features: With stricter building codes, newly built homes tend to be more environmentally friendly. This can include energy-efficient upgrades like smart thermostats and high-efficiency HVAC systems or eco-friendly tech. And all of these features can save you money on your future energy bills – again a welcome relief while inflation is stubbornly high.

Builder Incentives: Some builders are also offering incentives to homebuyers. While this will vary by builder, it could include rate buy-downs or other ways to offset today’s affordability challenges. As Bankrate says:

“Some builders offer financial incentives, including flexible financing options, to encourage buyers to purchase. These incentives — especially if they get the buyer a lower interest rate — could make a new-construction home more affordable in the long run.”

Other Considerations When Buying a Newly Built Home

On the other side of the coin, there are some things that you’ll want to at least consider before making your choice.

Longer Timelines: If you’re purchasing a home that’s still under construction, you may have to wait several months — or longer — before you can move in. As Realtor.com puts it:

For homebuyers who have a short time frame to move into a new home, buying new construction could be challenging if the house isn’t built yet. This is not always the case, since a community may have some quick move-in homes or spec homes that are already complete (or nearly so) and ready for a buyer to move in. But if not, a buyer may have to wait.”

Potential Price Changes: Keep an eye on costs, too. It’s easy to go over budget if you keep tacking on upgrades or add-ons as you customize your build. At the same time, building materials, like lumber, can be affected by the economy, inflation, and changing trade policies. And unfortunately, if the cost of supplies climbs, builders will pass at least some of that increase on to people like you. As HousingWire explains:

“Upgrades and add-ons, unforeseen delays due to weather, supply chain issues or labor shortages, and expenses like landscaping and fencing not included in the builder’s cost can significantly affect the final price.”

Bottom Line

New builds can be a great choice today, but you want to be sure you have all the information you need to make an informed decision on such a big purchase. To weigh the pros and cons, connect with a local agent.

Would you consider a newly built home? Why or why not?

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Let's Talk Real Estate. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.