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Will This Economic Crisis Have a V, U, or L-Shaped Recovery?

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Many American businesses have been put on hold as the country deals with the worst pandemic in over one hundred years. As the states are deciding on the best strategy to slowly and safely reopen, the big question is: how long will it take the economy to fully recover?

Let’s look at the possibilities. Here are the three types of recoveries that follow most economic slowdowns (the definitions are from the financial glossary at Market Business News):

  • V-shaped recovery: an economic period in which the economy experiences a sharp decline. However, it is also a brief period of decline. There is a clear bottom (called a trough by economists) which does not last long. Then there is a strong recovery.
  • U-shaped recovery: when the decline is more gradual, i.e., less severe. The recovery that follows starts off moderately and then picks up speed. The recovery could last 12-24 months.
  • L-shaped recovery: a steep economic decline followed by a long period with no growth. When an economy is in an L-shaped recovery, getting back to where it was before the decline will take years.

What type of recovery will we see this time?

No one can answer this question with one hundred percent certainty. However, most top financial services firms are calling for a V-shaped recovery. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo Securities, and JP Morgan have all recently come out with projections that call for GDP to take a deep dive in the first half of the year but have a strong comeback in the second half.Will This Economic Crisis Have a V, U, or L-Shaped Recovery? | Simplifying The Market

Is there any research on recovery following a pandemic?

There have been two extensive studies done that look at how an economy has recovered from a pandemic in the past. Here are the conclusions they reached:

1. John Burns Consulting:

“Historical analysis showed us that pandemics are usually V-shaped (sharp recessions that recover quickly enough to provide little damage to home prices), and some very cutting-edge search engine analysis by our Information Management team showed the current slowdown is playing out similarly thus far.”

2. Harvard Business Review:

“It’s worth looking back at history to place the potential impact path of Covid-19 empirically. In fact, V-shapes monopolize the empirical landscape of prior shocks, including epidemics such as SARS, the 1968 H3N2 (“Hong Kong”) flu, 1958 H2N2 (“Asian”) flu, and 1918 Spanish flu.”

The research says we should experience a V-shaped recovery.

Does everyone agree it will be a ‘V’?

No. Some are concerned that, even when businesses are fully operational, the American public may be reluctant to jump right back in.

As Market Business News explains:

“In a typical V-shaped recovery, there is a huge shift in economic activity after the downturn and the trough. Growing consumer demand and spending drive the massive shift in economic activity.”

If consumer demand and spending do not come back as quickly as most expect it will, we may be heading for a U-shaped recovery.

In a message last Thursday, Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank, agrees with other analysts who are expecting a resurgence in the economy later this year:

“We’re forecasting real economic growth of 30% for the U.S. in the 4th quarter of this year and 6.1% in 2021.”

His projection, however, calls for a U-shaped recovery based on concerns that consumers may not rush back in:

“After the steep plunge and bottoming out, a ‘U-shaped’ recovery should begin as consumer confidence slowly returns.”

Bottom Line

The research indicates the recovery will be V-shaped, and most analysts agree. However, no one knows for sure how quickly Americans will get back to “normal” life. We will have to wait and see as the situation unfolds.

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First-Time Buyers

Why Big Investors Aren’t a Challenge for Today’s Homebuyer

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Remember the chatter in the headlines about all the homes big institutional investors were buying? If you were thinking about buying a home yourself, you may have wondered how you’d ever be able to compete with that. Here’s the thing. That’s not the challenge so many people think it is – especially right now.

Let’s break down what’s really going on and why the recent shift in the approach investors are taking could tip the scales in your favor.

Large Investors Are Pulling Back

The truth is institutional investors never represented as big a share of the housing market as people think. And now, they’re backing off even more.

Today, big real estate investors aren’t buying as many homes. In fact, they’re actually selling more than they’re buying.

According to data from Parcl Labs, 6 out of 8 of the largest institutional single-family rental investment companies in America sold more homes than they bought in the second quarter of 2025 (see graph below):

a graph of sales and purchase

And here’s the stat that really puts it in perspective. According to Dominion Financial, for every home being bought by big investors, about 1.75 are being sold.

What’s Causing Big Investors To Change Course?

The reason institutional investors aren’t buying as many homes now compared to recent years is actually pretty simple. It’s because home values aren’t rising as fast as they were a few years ago, but the costs associated with rental maintenance are.

Since most institutional investors buy homes to rent them out, those higher costs eat into their margins. Remember, to investors, homebuying is a business.

But you’re not buying a home just for this year or next. You’re buying a place to build a life, and that’s a long-term play.

Historically, home values tend to rise over time. So, while investors may be sidelined by what’s happening right now, you’re in a different position entirely. You have the chance to buy while competition is lower and benefit from potential long-term price appreciation – something most investors are choosing not to wait for as they focus on shorter-term returns.

What Does All This Mean for You?

According to a recent survey, about 55% of real estate investors have no plans to grow their rental portfolios now or in the near future. With big investors stepping back, that means less competition from deep-pocketed buyers. And since they’re adding to today’s for-sale inventory, it also creates more options for you.

Bottom Line

If you’ve been holding off on buying, now might be the time to take another look. Connect with a local real estate agent so you can get expert guidance on what’s available and what might be a good fit for you.

What kind of home would you be excited to make yours this year?

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Affordability

Multi-Generational Homebuying Hit a Record High – Here’s Why

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Multi-generational living is on the rise. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), 17% of homebuyers purchase a home to share with parents, adult children, or extended family. That’s the highest share ever recorded by NAR (see graph below):

a graph of sales growthAnd what’s behind the increase? Affordability. NAR explains:

“In 2024, a notable 36% of homebuyers cited “cost savings” as the primary reason for purchasing a multigenerational home—a significant increase from just 15% in 2015.”

In the past, caregiving was the leading motivator – especially for those looking to support aging parents. And while that’s still important, affordability is now the #1 motivator. And with current market conditions, that’s not really a surprise.

Pooling Resources Can Help Make Homeownership Possible

With today’s home prices and mortgage rates, it can be hard for people to afford a home on their own. That’s why more families are teaming up and pooling their resources.

By combining incomes and sharing expenses like the mortgage, utility bills, and more, multi-generational living offers a way to overcome financial challenges that might otherwise put homeownership out of reach. As Rick Sharga, Founder and CEO at CJ Patrick Company, explains:

“There are a few ways to improve affordability, at least marginally. . . purchase a property with a family member — there are a growing number of multi-generational households across the country today, and affordability is one of the reasons for this.”

But this strategy doesn’t just help with affordability. It may even allow you to get a larger home than you’d qualify for on your own and that gives everyone a bit more breathing room. As Chris Berk, VP of Mortgage Insights at Veterans United, explains:

“Multigenerational homes are more than a trend: They are a meaningful solution for families looking to care for one another while making the most of their homebuying power.”

And momentum may be growing. Nearly 3 in 10 (28%) of homebuyers say they’re planning to purchase a multi-generational home.

Maybe it’s a solution that would make sense for you too. The best way to find out? Talk to a local real estate agent who can help you decide if this option would work for you.

Bottom Line

If your budget feels tight, buying a multi-generational home could be a smart solution. 

Would you ever consider buying a home with a family member? Why or why not? 

Connect with an agent to talk through your options.

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Economy

Think It’s Better To Wait for a Recession Before You Move? Think Again.

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Fear of a recession is back in the headlines. And if you’re thinking about buying or selling sometime soon, that may leave you wondering if you should reconsider the timing of your move.

A recent survey by John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC) and Keeping Current Matters (KCM) shows 68% of people are delaying plans to buy or sell due to economic uncertainty.

But it may not be for the reason you think. Not everyone is holding off because they’re worried. Some buyers are waiting because they’re hopeful. According to Realtor.com:

In 2025Q1, 3 in 10 (29.8% of) surveyed homebuyers said a recession would make them at least somewhat more likely to purchase a home . . . This reflects a common dynamic where some buyers see a downturn as an opportunity. If the economy enters a recession, the Federal Reserve may respond by lowering interest rates to stimulate activity, potentially putting downward pressure on mortgage rates and easing affordability concerns. As a result, buyers—especially those with limited down payments—might view a recession as a more favorable time to enter the market.”

And there’s some truth to the idea that a recession could bring about lower mortgage rates. History shows mortgage rates usually drop during economic slowdowns. That’s not guaranteed – but it is a common pattern. Looking at data from the last six recessions, you can see mortgage rates fell each time (see graph below): 

a graph of a graph showing the rise of mortgage ratesBut here’s what those buyers may not be considering. Many of those hopeful buyers are assuming something else will happen too – that home prices will drop. And that’s where history tells a different story.

According to data from Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), home prices went up in four of the last six recessions (see graph below)

So, while many people think that if a recession hits, home prices will fall like they did in 2008, that was an exception, not the rule. It was the only time the market saw such a steep drop in prices. And it hasn’t happened since, mainly because there’s still a long-standing inventory deficit, even as the number of homes on the market is rising.

Since prices tend to stay on whatever path they’re already on, know this: prices are still holding steady or rising in most metros, although at a much slower pace. So, a big drop isn’t likely. As Robert Frick, Corporate Economist with Navy Federal Credit Union, explains:

“Hopes that an economic slowdown will depress housing prices are wishful thinking at this point . . .”

Bottom Line

If you’ve been waiting for a recession to make your move, it’s important to understand what really happens during one – and what likely won’t. Lower mortgage rates could be on the table. But lower home prices? That’s far less likely.

Don’t wait for a market that may never come. If you’re thinking about buying or selling, connect with an agent to talk through what today’s economy really means for you – and make a smart plan that works in your favor, regardless of what the headlines say.

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The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, Landshark Mark, LLC and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.