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Home Price Appreciation Is as Simple as Supply and Demand

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Home price appreciation continues to accelerate. Today, prices are driven by the simple concept of supply and demand. Pricing of any item is determined by how many items are available compared to how many people want to buy that item. As a result, the strong year-over-year home price appreciation is simple to explain. The demand for housing is up while the supply of homes for sale hovers at historic lows.

Let’s use three maps to show how this theory continues to affect the residential real estate market.

Map #1 – State-by-state price appreciation reported by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) for the first quarter of 2021 compared to the first quarter of 2020:Home Price Appreciation Is as Simple as Supply and Demand | Simplifying The MarketAs the map shows, certain states (colored in red) have appreciated well above the national average of 12.6%.

Map #2 – The change in state-by-state inventory levels year-over-year reported by realtor.com:Home Price Appreciation Is as Simple as Supply and Demand | Simplifying The MarketComparing the two maps shows a correlation between change in listing inventory and price appreciation in many states. The best examples are Idaho, Utah, and Arizona. Though the correlation is not as easy to see in every state, the overall picture is one of causation.

The reason prices continue to accelerate is that housing inventory is still at all-time lows while demand remains high. However, this may be changing.

Is there relief around the corner?

The report by realtor.com also shows the monthly change in inventory for each state.

Map #3 – State-by-state changes in inventory levels month-over-month reported by realtor.com:Home Price Appreciation Is as Simple as Supply and Demand | Simplifying The MarketAs the map indicates, 39 of the 50 states (plus the District of Columbia) saw increases in inventory over the last month. This may be evidence that homeowners who have been afraid to let buyers in their homes during the pandemic are now putting their houses on the market.

We’ll know for certain as we move through the rest of the year.

Bottom Line

Some are concerned by the rapid price appreciation we’ve experienced over the last year. The maps above show that the increases were warranted based on great demand and limited supply. Going forward, if the number of homes for sale better aligns with demand, price appreciation will moderate to more historical levels.

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Affordability

How To Stretch Your Options, Not Your Budget

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One of the biggest homebuying advantages you can give yourself today is surprisingly simple: a flexible wish list.

Think of it like this. Your wish list and your budget are the guardrails of your search. And when your budget needs to hold firm, there’s another lever you can pull. That’s seeing if you truly need all of your desired features. Because the truth is, a small compromise could be the difference between feeling stuck and getting the keys to your next home.

The data shows more buyers are using that strategy to offset affordability hurdles in today’s market. A recent study from Cotality found most buyers (70%) ended up compromising on one or more items from their original wish list. But before they started searching, only 33% expected to compromise at all:

a blue and grey pie chartWhat changed? They realized something during the search. The things you can’t change matter far more than the things you can update later.

You can:

  • Install hardwood floors
  • Put in those marble countertops
  • Upgrade the bathrooms down the line.

You can’t as easily:

  • Add land
  • Tack on more bedrooms or bathrooms
  • Move the house closer to people you care about

In the end, things like the location, layout, and overall bones matter far more than the cosmetic features you can change later. And that realization is power.

A Simple Step That’ll Open More Doors

So, if you’re hitting a wall in your search or you’re browsing online and just not seeing “it,” here’s an easy exercise that can reset the whole experience. Write down everything you want in a home, then sort it into three buckets:

  • Must-Haves: Your non-negotiables. The things that make daily life workable: the number of bedrooms, the length of your commute, accessibility, safety, or being close to your family or support system.
  • Nice-to-Haves: Features you’d absolutely enjoy but aren’t truly essential. Some examples: a fenced-in backyard, dual closets in the owner’s suite, or a stamped patio.
  • Dream Features: The extras that would truly be over the top. They’re the things you think about when you say “one day, I want to have…” It’s great if you get them, but totally fine if you don’t (for now).

Once you divide your list, you’ll notice something. Your wish list can either limit your options or open them up.

Sometimes you’re treating “nice-to-haves” like “must-haves.” Loosen that up even a little, and suddenly more homes come into range – including homes you may have scrolled past that could actually work for your lifestyle.

Small Flexibility, Big Payoff

Your next home doesn’t need to check every box. It just needs to check the right ones.

Maybe that means considering a house that needs light cosmetic updates. Maybe it means choosing a slightly smaller yard for a better location.

These aren’t sacrifices. They’re worthwhile trade-offs that get you into a home. Just remember, anything cosmetic can be upgraded over time. But getting the right bones, the right layout, the right location? That’s what sets you up for the long run.

An Agent Helps You See the Possibilities

If you’re not sure what to hold firm on and where you can flex, that’s where a trusted agent can be a game changer. They’ll help you spot the opportunities, walk you through what features you truly shouldn’t budge on, and determine which ones you can add later – when the time is right.

Bottom Line

If you’re ready to find a home that fits both your budget and your life, talk to an agent and look at your wish list together. With a local expert on your side, it’s easier to see where a little flexibility can open up a lot more opportunity.

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Affordability

This May Be the Best Time To Buy a Brand-New Home

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New home construction today is giving buyers something it feels like they haven’t gotten much lately: a real shot at both the home they want and the deal they need. More brand-new options are on the market right now, and builders are rolling out incentives that make these homes more affordable than many people expect.

It’s a combination that doesn’t come around often – and it’s putting buyers in a surprisingly strong position this season. Here’s why this moment matters and why it’s worth partnering with your own local agent to take advantage of it.

1. More New Homes Are Available Nowand That May Not Last

There’s more new construction on the market today than normal. And for buyers, that means:

  • More cutting-edge communities
  • More move-in-ready homes
  • More floor plans to pick from
  • More upgraded designs and modern features

But that variety may not last.

Data from Zonda shows that even though it feels like new homes are popping up just about everywhere, builders have actually started pulling back. The number of starts (that’s when builders break ground) has been slowly but steadily declining over the past few years. And that’s good because it prevents overbuilding nationally.

But here’s the real insight that can give you an edge. Forecasts show that slight downward trend should continue next year (see graph below):

a graph of progress with numbers and textIt’s a signal that the new inventory we have now may be your widest pool of all-new options for a while.

Today, Redfin says roughly 1 in 3 homes (27%) on the market are new builds. That’s higher than the norm, but the lowest share in four years. And it makes sense based on the graph above.

That means if you want more options to choose from, now’s the time to look.

And if you’re wondering: why the pullback? It’s simple. Since there are already more new homes for sale than usual, builders want to focus on selling down the supply they already have on the market rather than adding more new homes. And that leads to point two.

2. Builder Incentives Just Hit an All-Time High

Here’s where things get even better for buyers. To make sure the inventory they have now keeps moving, builders are offering incentives at levels not seen in years – and many of those perks directly help buyers with affordability. Buyers today are getting:

  • Lower Prices: Builders are dropping the prices on their brand-new homes to draw in buyers.
  • Help with Closing Costs: Some builders are covering thousands of dollars in fees to reduce the upfront cost of buying.
  • Extra Upgrades: Think premium finishes, appliance packages, and designer features, all added at no extra cost.
  • Mortgage Rate Buydowns: This is when the builder pays to get you a lower mortgage rate, which reduces your monthly payments and helps with affordability.

But you don’t have to be lucky to see these types of perks. The truth is, the vast majority of builders are offering advantages like these right now. According to the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) 65% of builders say they’re using some type of sales incentive and:

“. . . 41% of builders reported cutting prices in November, a record high in the post-Covid period and the first time this measure has passed 40%.”

a graph of a number of blue barsThat’s a big deal. It shows how willing builders are to negotiate right now.

And if you look closely at the graph, you’ll notice the use of incentives typically falls in the early part of the year, as buyer demand rises going into the spring. So, you have an edge if you act now. This may be your ideal window to find the most options and better prices.

If you lean on your own agent and you’re savvy about what you ask for, you could walk away with some of the best perks buyers have seen in years. And when every dollar counts and any incentive helps your bottom line, that’s worth looking into. 

More options and more savings = an offer too good to pass up.

Bottom Line

With most builders offering generous incentives and a wider selection of new homes for sale, buyers may be looking at one of the best times in years to buy a new build.

Connect with a local agent if you want to know which communities, builders, and incentives offer the most value today. Having your own agent (not the builder’s representative) makes the sale and negotiation process that much easier for you.

If you could have a brand-new home for less than you may expect, would you be interested?

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Affordability

The 3 Housing Market Questions Coming Up at Every Gathering This Season

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Whether it’s at a family gathering, your company party, or catching up with friends over the holidays, the housing market always finds its way into the conversation.

Here are the top three questions on a lot of people’s minds this season, and straightforward answers to help you feel more confident about the market.

1. “Will I even be able to find a home if I want to move?”

Yes, more than you could a year or two ago.

The number of homes for sale has been rising over the past few years. According to data from Realtor.com, there have been more than one million homes on the market for six straight months, something that hasn’t happened since 2019 (see graph below):

a graph of a number of homesThat means two things:

  • Buyers have more options.
  • Sellers have more places they can move to next.

Many homeowners who held off are realizing the shelves aren’t bare anymore. So, if you hit pause on your home search last year because nothing fit your needs, it may be worth another look. With more homes on the market now, you’re not competing for the same handful of listings like you were a couple of years ago.

And because there’s a bit more to choose from, homes aren’t disappearing the minute they hit the market. That gives buyers more space to breathe, more options to compare, and a little more time to make a confident decision.

2. “Will I ever be able to afford a house?”

Affordability is starting to improve. Finally.

It’s been a tough few years for buyers. But this year brought some much-needed good news:

  • Mortgage rates have been easing.
  • Home price growth has been moderating.

That adds up to a monthly mortgage payment that’s hundreds of dollars lower than it would have been just a few months ago (see graph below):

a graph of blue rectangular barsBuying still isn’t easy, but the numbers are starting to improve. For a lot of people, that means buying a home is becoming a more realistic goal again.

3. “Should I wait for prices to come down?”

A lot of people worry that the housing market is about to crash, but the data doesn’t point in that direction. Yes, the number of homes for sale has been rising, but it’s still nowhere near the level needed for prices to fall significantly on a national scale. On top of that, homeowners today have a lot of equity and are in a much stronger financial position than they were back in 2008.

Of course, every local market is a little different. Some areas are still seeing prices climb, while others that saw huge spikes a few years ago are leveling off or seeing small corrections. But overall, the national picture is clear: experts surveyed by Fannie Mae project home prices will keep rising, just at a slower, more normal pace (see graph below):

a graph of green rectanglesThat’s why waiting for a major price drop to get a deal isn’t a very strategic plan. History shows the same thing over and over: people who spend time in the market tend to build the most long-term wealth, not the people who try to time the market perfectly.

Bottom Line

Talk about the housing market can feel loud and confusing, especially when you’re hearing so many different takes. A trusted local agent can help you make sense of the data and understand your options. If you’re thinking about buying or selling, reach out to a local professional.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.