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For Sellers

A Look at Housing Supply and What It Means for Sellers

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One of the hottest topics of conversation in today’s real estate market is the shortage of available homes. Simply put, there are many more potential buyers than there are homes for sale. As a seller, you’ve likely heard that low supply is good news for you. It means your house will get more attention, and likely, more offers. But as life begins to return to normal, you may be wondering if that’s something that will change.

While it may be tempting to blame the pandemic for the current inventory shortage, the pandemic can’t take all the credit. While it did make some sellers hold off on listing their houses over the past year, the truth is the low supply of homes was years in the making. Let’s take a look at the root cause and what the future holds to uncover why now is still a great time to sell.

Where Did the Shortage Come From?

It’s not just today’s high buyer demand. Our low supply goes hand-in-hand with the number of new homes built over the past decades. According to Sam Khater, VP and Chief Economist at Freddie Mac:

“The main driver of the housing shortfall has been the long-term decline in the construction of single-family homes.”

Data in a recent report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) tells the same story. New home construction has been lagging behind the norm for quite some time. Historically, builders completed an average of 1.5 million new housing units per year. However, since the housing bubble in 2008, the level of new home construction has fallen off (see graph below):A Look at Housing Supply and What It Means for Sellers | Simplifying The MarketThe same NAR report elaborates on the impact of this below-average pace of construction:

. . . the underbuilding gap in the U.S. totaled more than 5.5 million housing units in the last 20 years.” 

“Looking ahead, in order to fill an underbuilding gap of approximately 5.5 million housing units during the next 10 years, while accounting for historical growth, new construction would need to accelerate to a pace that is well above the current trend, to more than 2 million housing units per year. . . .”

That means if we build even more new houses than the norm every year, it’ll still take a decade to close the underbuilding gap contributing to today’s supply-and-demand mix. Does that mean today’s ultimate sellers’ market is here to stay?

We’re already starting to see an increase in new home construction, which is great news. But newly built homes can’t bridge the supply gap we’re facing right now on their own. In the State of the Nation’s Housing 2021 Report, the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University (JCHS) says:

“…Although part of the answer to the nation’s housing shortage, new construction can only do so much to ease short-term supply constraints. To meet today’s strong demand, more existing single-family homes must come on the market.

Early Indicators Show More Existing-Home Inventory Is on Its Way

When we look at existing homes, the latest reports signal that housing supply is growing gradually month-over-month. This uptick in existing homes for sale shows things are beginning to shift. Based on recent data, Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, has this to say:

“It looks like existing inventory is starting to inch up, which is good news for a housing market parched for more supply.”

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, echoes that sentiment:

“As the inventory is beginning to pick up ever so modestly, we are still facing a housing shortage, but we may have turned a corner.”

So, what does all of this mean for you? Just because life is starting to return to normal, it doesn’t mean you missed out on the best time to sell. It’s not too late to take advantage of today’s sellers’ market and use rising equity and low interest rates to make your next move.

Bottom Line

It’s still a great time to sell. Even though housing supply is starting to trend up, it’s still hovering near historic lows. Let’s connect to discuss how you can list your house now and use the inventory shortage to get the best possible terms for you.

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For Sellers

Why More Homeowners Are Giving Up Their Low Mortgage Rate

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If you’re like a lot of homeowners, you’ve probably thought: “I’d like to move… but I don’t want to give up my 3% rate.” That’s fair. That rate has been one of your best financial wins – and it can be hard to let go. But here’s what you need to remember…

A great rate won’t make up for a home that no longer works for you. Life changes, and sometimes, your home needs to change with it. And you’re not the only one making that choice.

The Lock-In Effect Is Starting To Ease

Many homeowners have been frozen in place by something the experts call the lock-in effect. That’s when you won’t move because you don’t want to take on a higher rate on your next home loan. But data from Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) shows the lock-in effect is slowly starting to ease for some people.

The share of homeowners with a mortgage rate below 3% (the yellow in the graph below) is slowly declining as more people move. And while some of the people with a rate over 6% are first-time buyers, the number of homeowners with a rate above 6% (the blue) is rising as others take on higher rates for their next home: 

a graph of a graph with text

And while it may not seem that dramatic, it’s actually a pretty noteworthy shift. The share of mortgages with a rate above 6% just hit a 10-year high (see graph below). That shows more people are getting used to today’s rates as the new normal.

Why Are More People Moving Now, if It Means Taking on a Higher Rate?

It’s simple. Sometimes they can’t put their life on pause anymore. Families grow, jobs change, priorities shift, and a house that once fit perfectly may not fit at all anymore – no matter how good their rate was. And that’s okay. As Chen Zhao, Head of Economic Research at Redfin, explains:

More homeowners are deciding it’s worth moving even if it means giving up a lower mortgage rate. Life doesn’t standstill—people get new jobs, grow their families, downsize after retirement, or simply want to live in a different neighborhood. Those needs are starting to outweigh the financial benefit of clinging to a rock-bottom mortgage rate.”

First American refers to these life motivators as the 5 Ds:

  • Diplomas: People with college degrees typically earn more, and that adds up to more buying power. Maybe you bought your house when you were younger and now that you’ve graduated and have a rising career, you’re ready to move up.
  • Diapers: You’ve outgrown your space. If you’re welcoming a new baby, your current home might not be cutting it anymore.
  • Divorce: Whether it’s ending a marriage (or starting one), it can create the need for a new place to call home.
  • Downsizing: You’re ready to downsize. Maybe the kids have moved out and it’s time to simplify. Smaller house, less maintenance, more freedom.
  • Death: If you’ve recently lost a loved one, maybe you’ve realized you want to be closer to family. Life’s too short to live far from the people who matter most.

Whatever your reason, here’s what you need to think about. Yes, your low rate is great. But staying put means your life may stay on hold. And maybe that’s not working for you anymore.

According to Realtor.com, nearly 2 in 3 potential sellers have already been thinking about moving for over a year. That’s a long time to press pause on your plans. On your needs. On your family’s goals. So, maybe the question isn’t: “Should I move?”

It’s actually: “How much longer am I willing to stay somewhere that no longer fits my life?”

Because we’ve already seen rates come down from their peak earlier this year. And they’re expected to ease a bit more in 2026. When you stack that on top of the very real reasons you may need a new home, it may be enough to finally move the needle for you.

Bottom Line

Life doesn’t wait for the perfect rate. Maybe you shouldn’t either.

With mortgage rates down from their peak and forecast to dip slightly more in 2026, moving may be more feasible than you think. If you’re ready to see what’s possible in your market, connect with a local agent and lender.

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Affordability

The 3 Housing Market Questions Coming Up at Every Gathering This Season

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Whether it’s at a family gathering, your company party, or catching up with friends over the holidays, the housing market always finds its way into the conversation.

Here are the top three questions on a lot of people’s minds this season, and straightforward answers to help you feel more confident about the market.

1. “Will I even be able to find a home if I want to move?”

Yes, more than you could a year or two ago.

The number of homes for sale has been rising over the past few years. According to data from Realtor.com, there have been more than one million homes on the market for six straight months, something that hasn’t happened since 2019 (see graph below):

a graph of a number of homesThat means two things:

  • Buyers have more options.
  • Sellers have more places they can move to next.

Many homeowners who held off are realizing the shelves aren’t bare anymore. So, if you hit pause on your home search last year because nothing fit your needs, it may be worth another look. With more homes on the market now, you’re not competing for the same handful of listings like you were a couple of years ago.

And because there’s a bit more to choose from, homes aren’t disappearing the minute they hit the market. That gives buyers more space to breathe, more options to compare, and a little more time to make a confident decision.

2. “Will I ever be able to afford a house?”

Affordability is starting to improve. Finally.

It’s been a tough few years for buyers. But this year brought some much-needed good news:

  • Mortgage rates have been easing.
  • Home price growth has been moderating.

That adds up to a monthly mortgage payment that’s hundreds of dollars lower than it would have been just a few months ago (see graph below):

a graph of blue rectangular barsBuying still isn’t easy, but the numbers are starting to improve. For a lot of people, that means buying a home is becoming a more realistic goal again.

3. “Should I wait for prices to come down?”

A lot of people worry that the housing market is about to crash, but the data doesn’t point in that direction. Yes, the number of homes for sale has been rising, but it’s still nowhere near the level needed for prices to fall significantly on a national scale. On top of that, homeowners today have a lot of equity and are in a much stronger financial position than they were back in 2008.

Of course, every local market is a little different. Some areas are still seeing prices climb, while others that saw huge spikes a few years ago are leveling off or seeing small corrections. But overall, the national picture is clear: experts surveyed by Fannie Mae project home prices will keep rising, just at a slower, more normal pace (see graph below):

a graph of green rectanglesThat’s why waiting for a major price drop to get a deal isn’t a very strategic plan. History shows the same thing over and over: people who spend time in the market tend to build the most long-term wealth, not the people who try to time the market perfectly.

Bottom Line

Talk about the housing market can feel loud and confusing, especially when you’re hearing so many different takes. A trusted local agent can help you make sense of the data and understand your options. If you’re thinking about buying or selling, reach out to a local professional.

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For Sellers

4 Reasons Your House Is High on Every Buyer’s Wish List This Season

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When the holidays roll around, travel plans, family gatherings, and all the chaos of the season may make you think it’s better to pull your listing off the market or to wait until 2026 to sell your house. But here’s the thing.

Waiting could mean missing out on a great window of opportunity. Because while other sellers are stepping away, you can lean in – and that might actually give you the edge. Here are 4 reasons selling now may be the better bet. 

1. Buyers This Time of Year Are Serious

Don’t let the season fool you. While casual browsers tend to step back around the holidays, serious buyers stay in the game. The people looking for homes right now usually aren’t just browsing. They’re ready to make a move and they usually want to close before the new year. As Zillow says:

“While more buyers have tended to shop in the spring and summer months, those shopping in the winter are likely to be motivated — often moving because of a job relocation, change in financial situation, or change in family needs.”

Their timelines are real and missing them would create a hassle for the buyer, so they’re eager to get the deal done. And that’s exactly the kind of buyer you want to work with.

2. You Have Control Over Your Schedule (and Showings)

Some homeowners decide not to sell this time of year because they don’t want to juggle showings during the holiday rush. They’re anticipating traveling to see family and thinking about buyers in their home only adds another layer of complexity. 

But here’s what no one’s reminded them. You can control your showings and can set times that work for your schedule. You don’t have to stop your plans to keep your sale on track. The right agent can help you manage your calendar, your showings, and your stress level.

3. Other Sellers May Step Back, Which Means Less Competition

Because fewer sellers tend to list this time of year, the number of homes for sale usually falls a bit. Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, explains:

“As we approach the end of the year, listing activity tends to slow and would-be sellers decide to wait until after the new year to list . . .”

And in a year when inventory has been steadily rising, that seasonal slowdown works in your favor. With the potential for fewer sellers on the market, your house will stand out. So, a seasonal dip in listings could help you get noticed, especially if your home is priced right and presented well.

4. Homes Decorated for the Holidays Can Feel More Inviting

You may not realize it, but seasonal decor can actually help you appeal to buyers. Maybe it’s that they have an easier time picturing themselves making memories in the home. Maybe it just feels cozier and more inviting. Whatever the reason, it works. Sometimes tasteful seasonal touches can make it easier to sell your house.

But don’t go overboard. Keep your choices simple to let your home’s charm shine through.

Bottom Line

There are plenty of good reasons to put (or keep) your house on the market during this time of year.

If you want to talk strategy for how to make the most of this season in your market, connect with a local agent.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.