Connect with us

For Sellers

A Look at Housing Supply and What It Means for Sellers

Published

on

One of the hottest topics of conversation in today’s real estate market is the shortage of available homes. Simply put, there are many more potential buyers than there are homes for sale. As a seller, you’ve likely heard that low supply is good news for you. It means your house will get more attention, and likely, more offers. But as life begins to return to normal, you may be wondering if that’s something that will change.

While it may be tempting to blame the pandemic for the current inventory shortage, the pandemic can’t take all the credit. While it did make some sellers hold off on listing their houses over the past year, the truth is the low supply of homes was years in the making. Let’s take a look at the root cause and what the future holds to uncover why now is still a great time to sell.

Where Did the Shortage Come From?

It’s not just today’s high buyer demand. Our low supply goes hand-in-hand with the number of new homes built over the past decades. According to Sam Khater, VP and Chief Economist at Freddie Mac:

“The main driver of the housing shortfall has been the long-term decline in the construction of single-family homes.”

Data in a recent report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) tells the same story. New home construction has been lagging behind the norm for quite some time. Historically, builders completed an average of 1.5 million new housing units per year. However, since the housing bubble in 2008, the level of new home construction has fallen off (see graph below):A Look at Housing Supply and What It Means for Sellers | Simplifying The MarketThe same NAR report elaborates on the impact of this below-average pace of construction:

. . . the underbuilding gap in the U.S. totaled more than 5.5 million housing units in the last 20 years.” 

“Looking ahead, in order to fill an underbuilding gap of approximately 5.5 million housing units during the next 10 years, while accounting for historical growth, new construction would need to accelerate to a pace that is well above the current trend, to more than 2 million housing units per year. . . .”

That means if we build even more new houses than the norm every year, it’ll still take a decade to close the underbuilding gap contributing to today’s supply-and-demand mix. Does that mean today’s ultimate sellers’ market is here to stay?

We’re already starting to see an increase in new home construction, which is great news. But newly built homes can’t bridge the supply gap we’re facing right now on their own. In the State of the Nation’s Housing 2021 Report, the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University (JCHS) says:

“…Although part of the answer to the nation’s housing shortage, new construction can only do so much to ease short-term supply constraints. To meet today’s strong demand, more existing single-family homes must come on the market.

Early Indicators Show More Existing-Home Inventory Is on Its Way

When we look at existing homes, the latest reports signal that housing supply is growing gradually month-over-month. This uptick in existing homes for sale shows things are beginning to shift. Based on recent data, Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, has this to say:

“It looks like existing inventory is starting to inch up, which is good news for a housing market parched for more supply.”

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, echoes that sentiment:

“As the inventory is beginning to pick up ever so modestly, we are still facing a housing shortage, but we may have turned a corner.”

So, what does all of this mean for you? Just because life is starting to return to normal, it doesn’t mean you missed out on the best time to sell. It’s not too late to take advantage of today’s sellers’ market and use rising equity and low interest rates to make your next move.

Bottom Line

It’s still a great time to sell. Even though housing supply is starting to trend up, it’s still hovering near historic lows. Let’s connect to discuss how you can list your house now and use the inventory shortage to get the best possible terms for you.

Continue Reading
Click to comment

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Agent Value

The Price You Set Can Make (or Break) Your Sale

Published

on

There’s one decision you’re going to make when you sell that determines whether your house sells quickly, or it sits. Whether buyers make an offer, or scroll past it. Whether you walk away with the maximum return, or you end up cutting the price later.

And that’s your asking price.

The #1 Mistake Sellers Make Today: Trusting the Wrong Number

If you’re thinking of moving and trying to figure out what your house may sell for, it’s tempting to start with an online home value tool. They’re fast, free, and easy. And you don’t have to talk to anyone. But here’s the problem: they don’t know your house.

And that can be a bigger drawback than you realize.

Where Online Estimates Fall Short 

Online tools often lag behind the market. They look in the rearview mirror, relying on closed sales and delayed information. And in that sense, they’re using incomplete data.

That’s not a miss in how these systems are built. Some information just isn’t available online. Bankrate explains:

While these tools can be a useful starting point, keep in mind that they typically do not provide the most accurate pricing. Algorithms can only rely on the information available; they can’t account for things like a home’s condition or renovations made since the last public information was updated.”

They can’t see:

  • The unique features that make your house special
  • All the work you’ve put in to keep it in good condition
  • Or, how in-demand your specific neighborhood is right now

So, while they may do a good job in some cases, they can’t be as accurate as a local agent who has boots on the ground day in and day out.

In a market where buyers have more options, a seemingly small margin of error can cost you thousands if you price too low, or weeks of lost momentum and time if you price too high.

If you want to sell for the most money and in the least amount of time, you don’t want the fast answer on how to price your house. You want the right one.

That’s why the savviest homeowners today don’t rely on algorithms when it actually matters. They rely on people, specifically trusted local agents.

What an Expert Agent Brings to the Table

According to 1000WATT, sellers overwhelmingly believe real estate agents have the best sense of a home’s true value, far more than any automated tools.

a pie chart with text on itThat confidence isn’t accidental. As Bankrate puts it:

“A professional appraiser or real estate agent can visit the home in person, assess the neighborhood as a whole as well as the individual property, perform more thorough market research, and consider subjective details.”

And those details matter. A skilled local agent doesn’t just pull reports. They know what’s happening right now:

  • What buyers are paying this month, not last month, or even last year
  • How your home compares to the current competition in your neighborhood
  • Which features add value based on what buyers are willing to pay for today
  • How to price your house to create urgency in this market

And once an agent steps foot in your house, they may even find your online estimate undershot your value. So, if you stuck with the estimate you got online, you’d actually be leaving money on the table. And no one wants that.

Bottom Line

While online tools can give you a rough starting point, only a local expert can give you a price that actually works.

If you want to know the right number for your house, not just the easiest one to find, connect with a local real estate agent.

Continue Reading

For Sellers

The Real Reason Home Sales Slowed in January. And It’s Not What You Think.

Published

on

If you saw headlines that talked about how “home sales fell sharply in January,” it probably raised an eyebrow – especially if you’re thinking about selling your house. But context matters.

Yes, in January, home sales declined. But that has more to do with seasonality and the weather than it does with any big drop off in demand. 

What’s Really Behind the Decline? 

Reports coming out of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) say the pace of home sales fell roughly 8.4% last month compared to the month before. And that’s true. But it isn’t necessarily cause for alarm. 

Data show it’s normal for sales to dip in January. In the last 4 years, that pattern has held true all but once. And sure, the decline we saw this year was a steeper drop off than the norm (the yellow bars on the right), but that can be explained too. More on that in a moment.

The really important part you’re not going to get from the headlines is this: typically speaking, the pace of home sales picks back up in February as the spring market starts to take off. That’s shown in the green bars below.

So even though the market slowed a bit momentarily, it should start to pick back up.

And just in case you’re wondering, why the bigger drop this year, especially with mortgage rates being lower than last year? Here’s your answer. As Realtor.com explains

“Winter storm Fern, which dumped snow and ice across large swaths of the country, likely disrupted some closings, weighing on the data and making it difficult to pick out the housing market momentum trend from the weather noise.”

This January, 40 states were hit with widespread winter weather according to the National Weather Service. And in real estate, that slows down the momentum. Here’s why.

Existing home sales data tracks closed transactions, not new contracts. So, if inspections, appraisals, or final walk-throughs get delayed by storms, those deals often slide into the next month instead of falling apart – especially when buyers and sellers are still trying to move forward.

Will Home Sales Pick Back Up?

January’s missing sales are more likely “postponed” than “lost.” They haven’t disappeared. They’re just taking a little longer to close. 

The rest of the data still points to a market that has traction heading into spring.

Affordability has improved for the 7th month in a row, and buyers are regaining negotiating power in many markets throughout the nation. So, this one monthly report doesn’t mean buyers aren’t buying. It just means, as weather warms up, activity should too.

Bottom Line

Don’t confuse a weather-impacted month with a market losing steam. If anything, improving affordability is an indicator of more activity to come, not less.

If you have questions about what you’re hearing online or in the news, reach out to a local real estate agent. Because the truth is, a little context can give you back your peace of mind.

Continue Reading

For Buyers

Move-Up Buyers Are Choosing New Construction

Published

on

At some point, a house that once felt perfect just… doesn’t anymore.

Maybe you need more space.

Maybe working from home turned your dining room into a permanent office.

Maybe the layout just doesn’t match how you live now.

If your current house is starting to feel like it’s holding you back instead of supporting your life, it’s natural to think about making a move. But that brings up the next big question: once you sell, where do you go?

For a growing number of buyers, the answer is something brand new.

New Construction Is a More Popular Choice Lately

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), more people are buying new homes than they have in years. The latest annual data available shows 16% of homes purchased were newly built.

At first glance you may not see why that’s a big deal. But that’s actually the highest share of new home purchases in almost two decades.

Why More Buyers Are Choosing a Brand-New Construction

For many buyers, especially move-up buyers, new construction isn’t just about aesthetics. It’s about lifestyle, convenience, and peace of mind.

1. Everything Is Brand New

You’re not inheriting someone else’s projects. No wondering how old the roof is. No budgeting for a new HVAC right after move-in. No big surprises when the previous owners patch job fails. For move-up buyers who’ve been dumping money into updating their current house, that’s a win.

2. You Can Customize Before Move In

If you choose a home that’s still under construction, you could have the chance to pick the flooring, counters, cabinets, hardware, lighting, and so much more. That level of personalization can be a draw for move-up buyers like you, because it allows you to hand pick the fit and finishes you’ve been wanting for so long.

3. A Home Designed for How People Live Today

Most new construction homes are built to current building standards and buyer preferences, which means you could see built-in smart home features, better energy efficiency (which can lower utility bills), and even more modern floor plans and features. And if your layout just isn’t working for you anymore, you may find exactly what you need now in a new home.

4. Neighborhood Amenities

New developments often include shared community spaces like walking trails, parks, playgrounds, or even pools and gyms. For families and active households, that’s a big bonus to have that just a few steps out of their front door.

5. Builder Incentives

Not to mention, since there are more new homes on the market than the norm, builders are motivated to sell what they have. So, you may find they’re more willing to negotiate than you’d expect on things like price, upgrades, and more.

Bottom Line

If your current house isn’t meeting your needs anymore, don’t assume your only choice is an existing home. New construction is becoming a real contender, especially for move-up buyers who want space, features, and a home that works for how they live now.

Curious whether new construction might be a fit for you? Talk to a local real estate agent.

Continue Reading

Subscribe for Weekly

Real Estate Insights

Advertisement

Trending

Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.