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Forecasts

Housing Market Forecasts for the Second Half of the Year

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From rising home prices to mortgage rate swings, the housing market has left a lot of people wondering what’s next – and whether now is really the right time to move. There is one place you can turn to for answers you want the most. And that’s the experts.

Leading housing experts are starting to release their projections for the rest of the year. These insights will give you clarity – and a little more optimism than you might expect. Business Insider sums up the forecasts (and why they’re good news for you):

“As mortgage rates go down this year, affordability may improve slightly for homebuyers. Inventory is also expected to grow, which should help moderate price growth and make finding a home easier.”

Let’s break it down.

1. Mortgage Rates Should Come Down (Slightly)

While a major drop isn’t on the table, forecasters are calling for a modest decline in rates in the months ahead as the economic outlook becomes more certain. Based on the information we have right now, here’s a look at where they say rates should be by year-end (see graph below):

a graph of interest rateEven this slight decrease is a welcome change. A seemingly small decline can still help bring down your future mortgage payment and give you a bit more breathing room in your budget.

Just remember, everything from inflation to employment and broader economic shifts will have an impact on where rates go from here. So, don’t try to time the market. And do expect some volatility along the way.

2. Inventory Will Continue To Grow

Inventory has already improved a lot this year. A big portion of the growth the market has already seen is because homeowners are getting tired of sitting on the sidelines. They’ve tried the wait and see approach with rates, and it hasn’t really paid off. And at a certain point, you need to move no matter what the market is doing. This is one reason more homes have been listed lately. And experts say that should continue. As Lance Lambert, Co-founder of ResiClub, says:

“The fact that inventory is rising year-over-year . . . strongly suggests that national active housing inventory for sale is likely to end the year higher.

If rate forecasts pan out as the experts say, that could be enough to tip some more sellers off the fence and back into the market – giving you even more options for your move.

3. Home Prices Are Moderating

As more homes hit the market, there will also be less upward pressure on home prices. Expert forecasts are still calling for growth, but the pace of that growth is slowing down as inventory climbs. The average of all 7 forecasts shows prices will rise about 2% this year (see graph below):

a graph of growth in green squaresThat means you could finally get a little bit of relief from rapidly rising home prices. When you combine the forecast for healthier price growth with projections for slightly lower mortgage rates, that could mean more buying power in the months ahead.

Keep in mind, though, the housing market is hyper-local. So, this is going to vary by area. Some markets will see prices climbing higher. And some may even see prices dip a little if inventory is up significantly in that location. So, lean on a local agent for insights into what’s happening in your area.

Bottom Line

So, if you want or need to move this year, know that the experts say things should start looking up. And an agent can help you take advantage of any market shifts that work in your favor.

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Forecasts

How To Buy a Home Without Waiting for Lower Rates

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Many people are hoping mortgage rates will come down before they buy a home. But will that actually happen? According to the latest forecasts, experts say rates will decline, but not by as much as a lot of people want.

The good news? Even if they don’t drop substantially, there are still ways to make buying a home more affordable.

How Much Will Rates Drop?

A few months ago, experts were forecasting mortgage rates could dip below 6% by the end of the year. But recent projections suggest that may not happen after all.

While mortgage rates are still expected to decline some later this year, projections from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), and Wells Fargo now show them stabilizing closer to the 6.5% to 7% range (see below):

a blue and white graph with numbers and textThat means if you’re holding off on buying a home in hopes of much lower mortgage rates, you may be waiting a while. And if you need to move because something in your life has changed, like a new job, a new baby, or a marriage – waiting that long may not be an option.

Creative Financing Options in Today’s Market

Since rates aren’t expected to decline as much as originally expected, it may be worth considering alternative financing options that could help you get into a home sooner rather than later. Here are three strategies to discuss with your lender to see if any of these make sense for you:

1. Mortgage Buydowns

A mortgage buydown allows you to pay an upfront fee to lower your mortgage rate for a set period of time. This can be especially helpful if you want or need a lower monthly payment early on. In fact, 27% of agents say first-time homebuyers are increasingly requesting buydowns from sellers in order to buy a home right now.

2. Adjustable-Rate Mortgages

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically start with a lower mortgage rate than a traditional 30-year fixed mortgage. This makes them an attractive option, especially if you expect rates to drop in the coming years or plan to refinance later.

And if you remember the housing crash, know that today’s ARMs aren’t like the risky ones back then. Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub, helps drive this point home by saying:

. . . ARM products today are different from many of the products issued in the mid-2000s. Before 2008, lenders often approved ARMs based on borrowers ability to pay the initial lower interest rates. And sometimes they didn’t even check that (remember Ninja loans). Today, adjustable-rate borrowers qualify based on their ability to cover a higher monthly payment, not just the initial lower payment.”

In simple terms, banks used to give loans without checking to see if buyers could afford them. Now, lenders verify income, assets, and jobs, reducing the risks associated with ARMs compared to the past.

3. Assumable Mortgages

An assumable mortgage allows you to take over the seller’s existing loan — including its lower mortgage rate. And with more than 11 million homes qualifying for this option according to U.S. News, it’s worth exploring if you want or need a better rate.

Bottom Line

Waiting for a big decline in mortgage rates may not be the best strategy. Instead, options like buydowns, ARMs, or assumable mortgages could make homeownership more affordable right now. Connect with a local lender to explore what works for you.

How does this impact your homebuying plans this year?

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Buying Tips

Buyer Bright Spot: There Are More Homes on the Market

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The past few years have been challenging for homebuyers, especially with higher home prices and mortgage rates. And if you’re trying to buy a home, it’s easy to worry you won’t be able to find something in your budget.

But here’s what you need to know. The number of homes for sale has grown a whole lot lately and that’s true for both existing (previously lived-in) and newly built homes. Here’s a look at those two bright spots for buyers right now and why they may make it a bit easier to find the home you’re been looking for.

1. There Are 22% More Existing Homes for Sale

Data from Realtor.com says the number of existing homes for sale improved by an impressive 22% in 2024. And experts say your pool of options is expected to get even better this year. Forecasts show inventory is projected to grow another 11-15% by the end of this year (see graph below):

a graph of sales in inventoryHere’s why this is so good for your search. If you haven’t seen a house with all the features you need, just know that, as the number of homes for sale grows, you’ll have more options to choose from. That means a better chance of finding a home that checks all your boxes. As Ralph McLaughlin, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, says:

It could be a particularly good time to get out into the market . . . you’re going to have more choice. And that’s not something that buyers have really had much over the past several years.”

2. There Are More Newly Built Homes on the Market

According to data from the Census and the National Association of Realtors (NAR), 31.1%, or roughly 1 in 3, homes on the market right now are newly built homes. That’s more than the norm (see charts below). But don’t worry, that’s not because builders are overdoing it – it’s just that they’re trying to catch up after years of underbuilding.

a graph of a pie chartAnd the best part is, since builders have been focusing on smaller homes with lower price points, you may actually find out new builds are less expensive than you’d expect. So, while a lot of people write off new construction because it’s easy to assume the costs are way higher, lately, that price gap isn’t as big as you’d think. As CNET says:

“If you live in an area where there’s a lot of new construction happening . . . you might be able to purchase a new house for a price similar to or even less than a pre-owned one.”

If you haven’t been able to find a home that’s in your budget, it’s time to ask your agent about new builds. If you don’t, you may have been cutting your pool of options by about a third.

Bottom Line

More choices could be the key to unlocking your homebuying goals in 2025. Talk to a local agent if you want to see what’s available in your area.

What features are you looking for in your next home? Let an agent know so they can put together a list of homes you’d love.

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Equity

Time in the Market Beats Trying To Time the Market

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a screenshot of a phone

Some Highlights

  • Are you torn between whether to buy a home now or wait? Consider this.
  • Forecasts show prices will climb for ​at least the next 5 years. If you wait, the price of a home will be higher later on. But, if you buy a $400K now, you could gain roughly $83K in equity as prices rise.
  • If you’re able to buy now, this equity is one reason why it’ll be worth it in the long run. Connect with an agent if you’re ready to talk through ways we can make it happen.

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The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, Landshark Mark, LLC and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.