One of the biggest reasons buyers are still sitting on the sidelines is because they think home prices are going to come down.

• Some believe a crash is coming and they’ll get a better deal if they hold off.

• Others worry they’ll buy now and watch their home’s value fall later.

And nobody wants to overpay or buy right before values drop. But here’s the question worth asking:

What if the crash you’re waiting for isn’t actually coming?

Because that’s what the latest data suggests.

Experts Are Not Calling for a Crash

If you’ve spent any time online lately, you’ve seen posts claiming home prices are about to come crashing down. And it’s true that some markets are seeing small price declines right now.

But that’s not the same thing as a nationwide crash.

While some places are going through a price adjustment, Realtor.com data shows home prices are still rising in 71% of housing markets across the country.

The trouble is, since negative news sells, you’re seeing more coverage about how a handful of markets are seeing declines, than how the majority are still seeing prices rise. And that’s unfortunate.

It’s exactly why a lot of buyers end up with the impression that prices are falling everywhere when they’re not. So how do you really know where prices are really headed from here?

That’s where the Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae comes in.

Home Prices Will Rise for the Next 5 Years

Every quarter, more than 100 economists, housing experts, and market analysts are asked where they think home prices are headed based on the latest data available.

And despite all the uncertainty in today’s market, there’s one thing they largely agreed on:

They don’t think a crash is coming.

In fact, the average of all of their forecasts calls for home prices to rise every year for at least the next 5 years (see graph below):

The point is that the overwhelming expectation isn’t for prices to fall. It’s for prices to rise at a more normal pace. And just in case you’re looking at the forecasts and saying: “of course they’d say that” – know that this survey doesn’t just include optimists. It includes pessimists too.

Even the Pessimists Aren’t Predicting a Crash

Researchers broke the panel into groups based on how bullish or bearish they were about housing. The result? Even the most pessimistic group still expects home prices to climb over the next five years.

Optimists think we’ll see prices go up roughly 4% a year. Pessimists say it’ll be closer to 1%. The reality may be somewhere in the middle.

Think about that for a second. The debate among experts isn’t whether prices will crash. It’s how much they’ll rise.

That’s a very different conversation than the one happening across social media.

This Means Waiting Could Actually Cost You

So, if you’re putting off your move until prices come down, you may be disappointed. According to the experts, a widespread crash isn’t in the cards.

In fact, based on the HPES forecast, a buyer who purchased a $400,000 home this January would gain nearly $40,000 in equity over the next five years from appreciation alone, even in this more moderate market (see below):

Of course, this all depends on local market conditions. This forecast is a national average. But broadly speaking, if the experts are right, the bigger risk isn’t that prices will crash. It may be waiting for a crash that never comes.

Because depending on your market, if you wait, you could be missing out on $40k in equity or paying 40k more in 5 years for the same house.

Bottom Line

A lot of buyers are waiting because they think prices will fall, but that’s not what the experts are saying.

If you’re trying to decide whether waiting still makes sense, connect with a local agent. They’ll help you understand what’s happening in your local market and what it could mean for your plans.

If the housing market feels confusing right now, you’re not alone.

Mortgage rates have risen. Home sales haven’t picked up like expected. And many buyers and sellers are wondering when things are going to feel easier or be more affordable.

The truth is: a lot changed over the first half of this year.

Back at the end of 2025, economists were forecasting a much stronger housing market for 2026. They expected mortgage rates to come down, affordability to improve more dramatically, and home sales to rebound.

But lingering inflation, economic uncertainty, and growing geopolitical tensions overseas pushed mortgage rates higher than expected. And because rates stayed elevated for longer, many buyers continued to hold off.

That’s why experts recently revised their housing forecasts for the rest of the year (see graph below):

So, what does this actually mean for you? Let’s break it down.

Mortgage Rates May Remain Elevated

While just about everyone wants mortgage rates to go back to the uppers 5s or low 6s we saw at the start of the year, as of right now, the experts don’t think that’s likely to happen this year.

Instead, forecasts have been updated from the low 6s they originally projected. Many industry organizations are saying rates will stay in roughly the mid 6s this year. The good news is, that’s still lower than rates were a year ago.

Of course, this is based on what we know today. If the conflict overseas comes to an end or inflation drops, this could change. But if you’re waiting for lower rates, it may not pay off in the way you expect.

Existing Home Sales Revised Lower

Back in late 2025, experts expected we’d sell an average of 4.5 million homes this year. Now? That’s dropped down a bit to 4.2 million.

That tells us something important: buyers are still hesitant because affordability remains challenging.

Higher mortgage rates have made monthly payments harder to manage, especially for first-time buyers. And that’s slowed the pace of the market compared to what was originally expected. But even though the forecast was revised down, we’re still expected to sell more homes than last year. 

Once geopolitical tensions resolve and rates begin to settle down, many experts believe that group of buyers will be ready to jump back in. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explains:

“There is sizable pent-up demand that could be released into the market.”

There has already been a few glimmers of renewed hope lately. In recent months, pending homes sale have been improving month-over-month despite higher rates.

So, if you’re able to afford a home at today’s rates, it could still make sense to buy now. Because otherwise, if you wait, you’ll have more competition (and potentially fewer homes to choose from) when those others buyers jump back in.

New Home Sales Also Slowed

Builders also expected to have a stronger year. Earlier forecasts projected new home sales would top 700k in 2026. Now, economists expect we’ll be just shy of that number.

Again, mortgage rates are a major reason why.

But the upside for buyers is that builders may be even more motivated to sell. That means builder incentives, negotiation opportunities, and pricing flexibility may continue in many markets. So, if you live somewhere where there’s more new construction, this may actually be a bright spot for you.

Builders could be more ready to negotiate, and that gives you more leverage to get a better deal.

Home Prices Are Still Expected To Rise

This is one of the most important takeaways from the entire forecast. Even though sales activity is slower, on average, experts did not revise their home price forecast downward.

They still expect prices to rise nationally this year.

Why? Because while buyer demand has softened, the number of homes for sale is still relatively limited overall. That imbalance is helping support prices, even in a slower market.

Of course, conditions vary depending on where you live. Some markets are cooling more than others. But nationally, experts are still projecting steady price growth — not a major decline. And that should be a comfort whether you’re buying or selling.

Because sellers don’t want a major drop in prices. And while buyers may think they do, generally you feel better about a big purchase when it doesn’t depreciate right away.

Bottom Line

The housing market hasn’t rebounded as quickly as experts originally hoped. But that doesn’t mean it’s stalled.

Higher inflation and lingering economic uncertainty caused economists to revise their forecasts for this year. But importantly, when those two things settle down, many experts believe the market will regain its momentum.

So don’t see this revision in forecasts as a sign of trouble. See it as a temporary reaction to overall conditions and uncertainty.

If you want to know what’s happening in your local market, and what it could mean for your plans for the rest of this year, talk to a local agent.

After a long stretch where buyers were competing for too few homes, inventory has made a comeback over the past year. And depending on where you live, that’s opening up your options in a meaningful way. 

According to Realtor.com, the number of homes available for sale in January was the highest it’s been since 2020. Here’s why that’s such a big deal. Getting back to pre-pandemic levels signals a slow and steady return to what’s typical:

Now, it’s worth noting, nationally we’re not there yet – and having more inventory improving won’t suddenly “fix” the market. But the growth we’ve seen lately still changes how competitive the market feels.

• When there are more homes for sale, buyers gain time, options, and leverage.
• When there aren’t, the pressure ramps up quickly.

In the years since 2020, there weren’t enough homes for sale, and that made the market feel different. Rushed. Stressful. Intimidating.

But now it’s finally getting better.

A Growing Portion of the Country Is Getting Back to Normal

Depending on where you live, inventory growth is going to vary. Some places are bouncing back faster than others. According to Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub, in January 2025, just a little over one year ago, only 41 of the 200 largest metros were back to normal inventory-wise. 

But around the end of year, almost half (90) of the largest 200 metro areas were back at or above typical levels. That’s a big improvement in roughly a year. And it’s not done yet. 

Inventory Is Expected To Keep Growing 

Looking ahead, forecasts suggest the number of homes for sale could rise another 10% this year, which means even more markets should join the list of places where supply has rebounded.

Here’s a graph that shows what an extra 10% would do for the market this year. You can see that projected growth (shown in the dotted line) hits inventory levels seen in 2017-2019 by roughly this fall (the gray lines). That means we may reach normal by end of year, nationally:

And that changes your home search in a good way. As Hannah Jones, Senior Economic Research Analyst at Realtor.com, puts it:

“. . . housing market conditions are gradually rebalancing after several years of extreme seller advantage. Buyers are beginning to see more options and modest negotiating power as inventory improves . . .”

In other words, the market is starting to work with buyers again — not against them.

Bottom Line

Inventory isn’t fully back to normal everywhere. But it’s moving in the right direction. And, in some areas, it’s already there.

If you’ve been waiting for a moment when you have options and a little breathing room, this is the strongest setup buyers have seen in a long time.

If you want to know what’s happening in your local market, talk to an agent.