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Recession? Yes. Housing Crash? No.

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With over 90% of Americans now under a shelter-in-place order, many experts are warning that the American economy is heading toward a recession, if it’s not in one already. What does that mean to the residential real estate market?

What is a recession?

According to the National Bureau of Economic Research:

“A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”

COVID-19 hit the pause button on the American economy in the middle of March. Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Morgan Stanley are all calling for a deep dive in the economy in the second quarter of this year. Though we may not yet be in a recession by the technical definition of the word today, most believe history will show we were in one from April to June.

Does that mean we’re headed for another housing crash?

Many fear a recession will mean a repeat of the housing crash that occurred during the Great Recession of 2006-2008. The past, however, shows us that most recessions do not adversely impact home values. Doug Brien, CEO of Mynd Property Management, explains:

“With the exception of two recessions, the Great Recession from 2007-2009, & the Gulf War recession from 1990-1991, no other recessions have impacted the U.S. housing market, according to Freddie Mac Home Price Index data collected from 1975 to 2018.”

CoreLogic, in a second study of the last five recessions, found the same. Here’s a graph of their findings:Recession? Yes. Housing Crash? No. | Simplifying The Market

What are the experts saying this time?

This is what three economic leaders are saying about the housing connection to this recession:

Robert Dietz, Chief Economist with NAHB

“The housing sector enters this recession underbuilt rather than overbuilt…That means as the economy rebounds – which it will at some stage – housing is set to help lead the way out.”

Ali Wolf, Chief Economist with Meyers Research

“Last time housing led the recession…This time it’s poised to bring us out. This is the Great Recession for leisure, hospitality, trade and transportation in that this recession will feel as bad as the Great Recession did to housing.”

John Burns, founder of John Burns Consulting, also revealed that his firm’s research concluded that recessions caused by a pandemic usually do not significantly impact home values:

“Historical analysis showed us that pandemics are usually V-shaped (sharp recessions that recover quickly enough to provide little damage to home prices).”

Bottom Line

If we’re not in a recession yet, we’re about to be in one. This time, however, housing will be the sector that leads the economic recovery.

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Buying Tips

What Credit Score Do You Really Need To Buy a Home?

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According to Fannie Mae, 90% of buyers don’t actually know what credit score lenders are looking for, or they overestimate the minimum needed.

Let that sink in. That means most homebuyers think they need better credit than they actually do – and maybe you’re one of them. And that could make you think buying a home is out of reach for you right now, even if that’s not necessarily true. So, let’s look at what the data really says about credit scores and homebuying.

There’s No One Magic Number

There’s no universal credit score you absolutely have to have when buying a home. And that means there’s more flexibility than most people realize. Check out this graph showing the median credit scores recent buyers had among different home loan types:

a graph of a credit scoreHere’s what’s important to realize. The numbers vary, and there’s no one-size-fits-all threshold. And that could open doors you thought were closed for you. The best way to learn more is to talk to a trusted lender. As FICO explains:

“While many lenders use credit scores like FICO Scores to help them make lending decisions, each lender has its own strategy, including the level of risk it finds acceptable. There is no single ‘cutoff score’ used by all lenders, and there are many additional factors that lenders may use . . .”

Why Your Score Still Matters

When you buy a home, lenders use your credit score to get a sense of how reliable you are with money. They want to see if you typically make payments on time, pay back debts, and more.

Your score can impact which loan types you may qualify for, the terms on those loans, and even your mortgage rate. And since mortgage rates are a big factor in how much house you’ll be able to afford, that may make your score feel even more important today. As Bankrate says:

“Your credit score is one of the most important factors lenders consider when you apply for a mortgage. Not just to qualify for the loan itself, but for the conditions: Typically, the higher your score, the lower the interest rates and better terms you’ll qualify for.”

That still doesn’t mean your credit has to be perfect. Even if your credit score isn’t as high as you’d like, you may still be able to get a home loan.

Want To Boost Your Score? Start Here

And if you talk to a lender and decide you want to improve your score (and hopefully your loan type and terms too), here are a few smart moves according to the Federal Reserve Board:

  • Pay Your Bills on Time: This is a big one. Lenders want to see you can reliably pay your bills on time. This includes everything from credit cards to utilities and cell phone bills. Consistent, on-time payments show you’re a responsible borrower.
  • Pay Down Your Debt: When it comes to your available credit amount, the less you’re using, the better. Focus on keeping this number as low as possible. That makes you a lower-risk borrower in the eyes of lenders – making them more likely to approve a loan with better terms.
  • Review Your Credit Report: Get copies of your credit report and work to correct any errors you find. This can help improve your score.
  • Don’t Open New Accounts: While it might be tempting to open more credit cards to build your score, it’s best to hold off. Too many new credit applications can lead to hard inquiries on your report, which can temporarily lower your score.

Bottom Line

Your credit score doesn’t have to be perfect to qualify for a home loan. But a better score can help you get better terms on your home loan. The best way to know where you stand and your options for a mortgage is to connect with a trusted lender.​

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For Buyers

Home Price Forecasts for the Second Half of 2025

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a screenshot of a phone

Some Highlights

  • With all the headlines circulating recently, you may be wondering what’s next for home prices? Here’s what the expert forecasts say.
  • Home prices are still forecast to rise nationally this year, just at a much slower pace. But price trends are going to vary by area.
  • To have a quick conversation about what’s happening in your local market, connect with a real estate agent.

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Agent Value

Today’s Tale of Two Housing Markets

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Depending on where you live, the housing market could feel red-hot or strangely quiet right now. The truth is, local markets are starting to move in different directions. In some places, buyers are calling the shots. In others, sellers still hold the power. It’s a tale of two markets.

What’s a Buyer’s Market vs. a Seller’s Market?

In a buyer’s market, there are more homes for sale and not as many buyers. That means homes sit longer, buyers have more negotiating power, and prices tend to soften as a result. It’s simple supply and demand.

On the flip side, a seller’s market happens when there aren’t enough homes available for the number of people looking to buy them. Because buyers have to compete with each other to get the house they want, that leads to faster sales, multiple offers, and rising prices.

Right now, both of these scenarios are playing out, depending on where you are. So, how do you know what kind of market you’re in? Lean on a local real estate agent. They’ll explain what’s really happening in your area based on these key drivers.

The Number of Buyers and Sellers by Region

One of the biggest factors impacting each market is the number of active buyers and sellers. According to Redfin, here’s what that looks like by region (see graph below):

a graph of salesToday, the Northeast and Midwest are more likely to be seller’s markets. Buyers still outnumber sellers there, and that keeps things tilted in favor of homeowners. Generally speaking, homes are selling faster and prices are rising in those areas.

But the South and West are leaning more toward buyer’s markets. There are more sellers than buyers, which means more listings to choose from and less competition among buyers.

That’s a major shift from a few years ago when sellers had the advantage almost everywhere. Today, your local conditions matter more than ever – and they can vary even from one neighborhood to the next.

Price Trends Mirror the Buyer/Seller Divide

When inventory and buyer activity shift, so do prices. In places where demand still outpaces supply, like much of the Northeast and Midwest, prices are continuing to climb.

But in parts of the South and West where inventory is up and demand has cooled, prices are softening. And that’s a plus for buyers looking to negotiate in those areas.

Here’s the latest price data from ResiClub to show how this divide is shaking out across the top metros in the country (see graph below):

a graph of different colored linesThis is why it’s the tale of two markets. Roughly half of the top 50 metros are up, and half are relatively flat or down.

That said, don’t panic if you own a home in a market where prices are dipping. Most homeowners have built up significant equity over the past few years, and chances are you have too. So, you’re likely still come out way ahead when you sell.

Why Local Insights Matter

Even in regions that lean more buyer-friendly right now, there will be cities, towns, and even neighborhoods that don’t follow the regional trends. That’s why an agent’s local market expertise is so important. They can help you understand what’s happening all the way down to a zip code level, including:

  • Whether your area is favoring buyers or sellers
  • How to set the right price or craft an offer strategy based on local trends
  • The best way to make your move happen, no matter what’s happening in the market

Bottom Line

In a market where conditions vary this much from place to place, success starts with understanding every aspect of your local area. Connect with a local agent so you’ve got an expert in your corner who knows exactly how to guide you through your market, wherever you are.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.