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Recession? Yes. Housing Crash? No.

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With over 90% of Americans now under a shelter-in-place order, many experts are warning that the American economy is heading toward a recession, if it’s not in one already. What does that mean to the residential real estate market?

What is a recession?

According to the National Bureau of Economic Research:

“A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”

COVID-19 hit the pause button on the American economy in the middle of March. Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Morgan Stanley are all calling for a deep dive in the economy in the second quarter of this year. Though we may not yet be in a recession by the technical definition of the word today, most believe history will show we were in one from April to June.

Does that mean we’re headed for another housing crash?

Many fear a recession will mean a repeat of the housing crash that occurred during the Great Recession of 2006-2008. The past, however, shows us that most recessions do not adversely impact home values. Doug Brien, CEO of Mynd Property Management, explains:

“With the exception of two recessions, the Great Recession from 2007-2009, & the Gulf War recession from 1990-1991, no other recessions have impacted the U.S. housing market, according to Freddie Mac Home Price Index data collected from 1975 to 2018.”

CoreLogic, in a second study of the last five recessions, found the same. Here’s a graph of their findings:Recession? Yes. Housing Crash? No. | Simplifying The Market

What are the experts saying this time?

This is what three economic leaders are saying about the housing connection to this recession:

Robert Dietz, Chief Economist with NAHB

“The housing sector enters this recession underbuilt rather than overbuilt…That means as the economy rebounds – which it will at some stage – housing is set to help lead the way out.”

Ali Wolf, Chief Economist with Meyers Research

“Last time housing led the recession…This time it’s poised to bring us out. This is the Great Recession for leisure, hospitality, trade and transportation in that this recession will feel as bad as the Great Recession did to housing.”

John Burns, founder of John Burns Consulting, also revealed that his firm’s research concluded that recessions caused by a pandemic usually do not significantly impact home values:

“Historical analysis showed us that pandemics are usually V-shaped (sharp recessions that recover quickly enough to provide little damage to home prices).”

Bottom Line

If we’re not in a recession yet, we’re about to be in one. This time, however, housing will be the sector that leads the economic recovery.

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For Buyers

Reasons To Be Optimistic About the 2026 Housing Market

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If a move is on your radar for 2026, there’s a lot more working in your favor than there has been in a while.

After a stretch where many people felt stuck, 2026 is shaping up to be a year with more balance, more options, and more clarity for people who want to make a move. Not because the market is suddenly “easy,” but because several key conditions are shifting.

Here’s what the experts are saying you have to look forward to.

Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com:

“After a challenging period for buyers, sellers and renters, 2026 should offer a welcome, if modest, step toward a healthier housing market.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR):

Top economists have one word to sum up the housing market for 2026: opportunity. Lower mortgage rates and a rising supply of homes are expected to open up the housing market . . . something the real estate industry and potential home buyers and sellers have been waiting for, following three years of stagnation.”

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American:

“. . . for the first time in several years, the underlying forces are finally aligned toward gradual improvement. Mortgage rates may drift down only slowly, but income growth exceeding house price appreciation will provide a boost to house-buying power — even in a higher-rate world. Affordability won’t snap back overnight, but like a ship finally catching a steady tailwind, it’s now sailing in the right direction.

Mischa Fisher, Chief Economist at Zillow:

“Buyers are benefiting from more inventory and improved affordability, while sellers are seeing price stability and more consistent demand. Each group should have a bit more breathing room in 2026.

Why Local Insight Matters More Than Ever

Just remember, while the national outlook is improving, conditions will still be different based on where you live. Some markets will move faster than others. Some will see stronger price growth. Others will remain flat. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, explains:

Market performance will hinge on local economic conditions, making 2026 one of the most geographically divided markets we’ve seen in years.”

That’s why understanding what’s happening in your specific area is key. The national trends set the stage, but local dynamics determine how they play out for you. And that’s why you need an agent.

Bottom Line

If you want more information on what these trends mean for your local market and which trends you’ll want to take advantage of, reach out to a trusted real estate agent.

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First-Time Buyers

Turning a House Into a Home: The Benefits You Can Actually Feel

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There’s a lot of conversation about home prices, mortgage rates, and affordability right now – and those things are important. But if you’re thinking about buying a home, it’s worth remembering something the headlines rarely talk about: people don’t buy homes just for financial reasons. They buy them for their lives.

Because while homeownership can absolutely be a smart long-term financial move, it also comes with some emotional benefits spreadsheets just can’t capture. Maybe that’s why a 2025 survey from Fannie Mae notes:

“Consumers were twice as likely to mention lifestyle benefits (67%)—like security, customization, and outdoor space—than financial benefits (34%) when explaining why their homes have become more important in recent years.”

Here are a few reminders of what owning a home gives you that renting never will.

1. A Milestone You Get To Be Proud Of

Buying a home is a big deal. First home, fifth home – it doesn’t matter. It’s a moment you’ll remember. And when you finally get those keys and walk through the door, that feeling of “I did this” hits different. It’s not just a purchase. It’s an accomplishment.

2. A Place That Feels Like Your Reset Button

Life is busy. Having a place that’s truly yours where you can shut the door, take a breath, and settle into your own routine is something renters rarely talk about until they finally experience it. Home becomes the place you go to recharge, not just the place your mail is delivered.

3. Space That Fits the Way You Actually Live

Need a quiet corner for work calls? A backyard big enough for the dog that thinks it’s a person? A shorter drive to see the people who are most important to you? When you own, you get to choose a space that fits your life now and where it’s heading – and it just feels right.

4. Freedom To Make It 100% Yours

Want to paint the kitchen navy? Go for it. Thinking about a wall of floating shelves or a bold wallpaper moment? Do it. Need space for a home gym or a reading nook? Make it happen. Homeownership gives you the freedom to shape your space instead of asking for permission to change it.

Bottom Line

Buying a home isn’t only about dollars and data points – it’s about building a life you love.

So, if you’re thinking about a move in 2026, keep the emotional side in the conversation too. And when you’re ready to explore your options, reach out to a trusted local agent who can guide you through the process with clarity and confidence.

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Affordability

Is January the Best Time To Buy a Home?

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You may not want to put your homebuying plans into hibernation mode this winter. While a lot of people assume spring is the ideal time to buy a house, new data shows January may actually be the best time of year for budget-conscious buyers. 

Kind of surprising, right? Here’s why January deserves a serious look.

1. Prices Tend To Be Lower This Time of Year

Lending Tree says January is the least expensive month to buy a home. And there’s something to that. January has historically offered one of the lowest price-per-square-foot points of the entire year. But the spring? That’s when demand (and prices) usually peak. And that’s not speculation – it’s a well-known trend based on years of market data.

a graph of a number of blue barsSo, how much less are we talking? Here’s a look at the numbers. According to the last full year of data, for the typical 1,500 square foot house, buyers who closed on their home in January paid around $23,000 less compared to those who bought in May. And that general trend typically holds true each year (see chart below):

a blue and white table with white textNow, your number is going to depend on the price, size, and type of the home you’re buying. But the trend is clear. For today’s buyers, it’s meaningful savings, especially when affordability is still tight for so many households.

2. Fewer Buyers and More Motivated Sellers 

And why do buyers typically save in the winter? It’s simple. Winter is one of the slowest times in the housing market each year. Both buyers and sellers tend to pull back, thinking it’s better to wait until spring. And that means:

  • You face less competition
  • You’re less likely to get into a multiple offer scenario
  • Sellers are more willing to negotiate (since there aren’t as many buyers)

With fewer buyers in the market, you can take your time browsing.

But winter doesn’t just thin out the pool of buyers, it also reveals which sellers truly need to sell. Because fewer people are house hunting during the colder months, sellers who really need to move tend to be more open to negotiating. As Realtor.com explains:

“Less competition means fewer bidding wars and more power to negotiate the extras that add up: closing cost credits, home warranties, even repair concessions. . . these concessions can end up knocking thousands of dollars off the price of a home.”

This can include everything from price cuts to covering closing costs, adjusting timelines, and more. It doesn’t mean you’ll automatically get discounts on every home. But it does mean you’re more likely to be taken seriously and given room to negotiate.

Should You Wait for Spring?

Here’s the real takeaway. When you remove the pressure and frenzy that comes with the busy spring season, it becomes much easier to get the home you want at a price that fits your budget.

But if you wait until spring, more buyers will be in the market. So, waiting could actually mean you spend more and you’d have to deal with more stress.

Now, only you can decide the right timing for your life, but don’t assume you should wait for warmer weather before you move.

Buying in January gives you: less competition, potentially lower prices, and more motivated sellers. And those are three perks you’re not going to see if you wait until spring.

Bottom Line

If you’ve been thinking about taking the next step, this season might give you more opportunity than you think.

Curious what buying in January could look like for you? Talk to a local agent who can help you take a closer look at your numbers and the homes that are available in your area.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.