Connect with us

For Buyers

Recession? Yes. Housing Crash? No.

Published

on

With over 90% of Americans now under a shelter-in-place order, many experts are warning that the American economy is heading toward a recession, if it’s not in one already. What does that mean to the residential real estate market?

What is a recession?

According to the National Bureau of Economic Research:

“A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”

COVID-19 hit the pause button on the American economy in the middle of March. Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Morgan Stanley are all calling for a deep dive in the economy in the second quarter of this year. Though we may not yet be in a recession by the technical definition of the word today, most believe history will show we were in one from April to June.

Does that mean we’re headed for another housing crash?

Many fear a recession will mean a repeat of the housing crash that occurred during the Great Recession of 2006-2008. The past, however, shows us that most recessions do not adversely impact home values. Doug Brien, CEO of Mynd Property Management, explains:

“With the exception of two recessions, the Great Recession from 2007-2009, & the Gulf War recession from 1990-1991, no other recessions have impacted the U.S. housing market, according to Freddie Mac Home Price Index data collected from 1975 to 2018.”

CoreLogic, in a second study of the last five recessions, found the same. Here’s a graph of their findings:Recession? Yes. Housing Crash? No. | Simplifying The Market

What are the experts saying this time?

This is what three economic leaders are saying about the housing connection to this recession:

Robert Dietz, Chief Economist with NAHB

“The housing sector enters this recession underbuilt rather than overbuilt…That means as the economy rebounds – which it will at some stage – housing is set to help lead the way out.”

Ali Wolf, Chief Economist with Meyers Research

“Last time housing led the recession…This time it’s poised to bring us out. This is the Great Recession for leisure, hospitality, trade and transportation in that this recession will feel as bad as the Great Recession did to housing.”

John Burns, founder of John Burns Consulting, also revealed that his firm’s research concluded that recessions caused by a pandemic usually do not significantly impact home values:

“Historical analysis showed us that pandemics are usually V-shaped (sharp recessions that recover quickly enough to provide little damage to home prices).”

Bottom Line

If we’re not in a recession yet, we’re about to be in one. This time, however, housing will be the sector that leads the economic recovery.

Continue Reading
Click to comment

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

For Buyers

The Truth About Where Home Prices Are Heading

Published

on

There are plenty of headlines these days calling for a housing market crash. But the truth is, they’re not telling the full story. Here’s what’s actually happening, and what the experts project for home prices over the next 5 years. And spoiler alert – it’s not a crash.

Yes, in some local markets, prices are flattening or even dipping slightly this year as more homes hit the market. That’s normal with rising inventory. But the bigger picture is what really matters, and it’s far less dramatic than what the doom-and-gloom headlines suggest. Here’s why.

Over 100 leading housing market experts were surveyed in the latest Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae. Their collective forecast shows prices are projected to keep rising over the next 5 years, just at a slower, healthier pace than what we’ve seen more recently. And that kind of steady, sustainable growth should be one factor to help ease your fears about the years ahead (see graph below):

a graph with green barsAnd if you take a look at how the various experts responded within the survey, they fall into three main categories: those that were most optimistic about the forecast, most pessimistic, and the overall average outlook.

Here’s what the breakdown shows:

  • The average projection is about 3.3% price growth per year, through 2029.
  • The optimists see growth closer to 5.0% per year.
  • The pessimists still forecast about 1.3% growth per year.

Do they all agree on the same number? Of course not. But here’s the key takeaway: not one expert group is calling for a major national decline or a crash. Instead, they expect home prices to rise at a steady, more sustainable pace.

That’s much healthier for the market – and for you. Yes, some areas may see prices hold relatively flat or dip a bit in the short term, especially where inventory is on the rise. Others may appreciate faster than the national average because there are still fewer homes for sale than there are buyers trying to purchase them. But overall, more moderate price growth is cooling the rapid spikes we saw during the frenzy of the past few years.

And remember, even the most conservative experts still project prices will rise over the course of the next 5 years. That’s also because foreclosures are low, lending standards are in check, and homeowners have near record equity to boost the stability of the market. Together, those factors help prevent a wave of forced sales, like the kind that could drag prices down. So, if you’re waiting for a significant crash before you buy, you might be waiting quite a long time.

Bottom Line

If you’ve been on the fence about your plans, now’s the time to get clarity. The market isn’t heading for a crash – it’s on track for steady, slow, long-term growth overall, with some regional ups and downs along the way.

Want to know what that means for your neighborhood? Because national trends set the tone, but what really matters is what’s happening in your zip code. Connect with a real estate agent to have a quick conversation so you can see exactly what the local data means for you. 

Continue Reading

Equity

Selling and Buying at the Same Time? Here’s What You Need To Know

Published

on

If you’re a homeowner planning to move, you’re probably wondering what the process is going to look like and what you should tackle first:

  • Is it better to start by finding your next home?
  • Or should you sell your current house before you go out looking?

Ultimately, what’s right for you depends on a lot of factors. And that’s where an agent’s experience can really help make your next step clear.

They know your local market, the latest trends, and what’s working for other homeowners right now. And they’ll be able to make a recommendation based on their expertise and your needs.

But here’s a little bit of a sneak peek. In many cases today, getting your current home on the market first can put you in a better spot. Here’s why that order tends to work best (and how an agent can help).

The Advantages of Selling First

1. You’ll Unlock Your Home Equity

Selling your current home before you try to buy your next one allows you to access the equity you’ve built up – and based on home price appreciation over the past few years, that’s no small number. Data from Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) shows the average homeowner is sitting on $302K in equity today.

And once you sell, you can use that equity to pay for the down payment on your next house (and maybe even more). You could even have enough to buy your next house in cash. That’s a big deal, and it could make your next move a whole lot easier on your wallet.

2. You Won’t Be Juggling Two Mortgages

Trying to buy before you sell means you could wind up holding two mortgages, even if just for a few months. That can get expensive, fast – especially if there are unexpected repairs or delays. Selling first removes that stress and helps you move forward without the financial strain. As Ramsey Solutions says:

“It’s best to sell your old home before buying a new one to avoid unnecessary risks and possible headaches.”

3. You’ll Be in a Stronger Position When You Make an Offer

Sellers love a clean, simple offer. If you’ve already sold your house, you don’t need to make your offer contingent on that sale – and that can help you stand out. Your agent can position your offer to be as strong as possible, so you have the best shot at getting the home you want.

This can be a big advantage in competitive markets where sellers prefer buyers with fewer strings attached.

One Thing To Keep in Mind

But, like with anything in life, there are tradeoffs. As you weigh your options, consider this potential drawback, too:

1. You May Need a Place To Stay (Temporarily)

Once your house sells, you may need a short-term rental or to stay with family until you can move into your next home. Your agent can help you negotiate things like a post-closing occupancy (renting the home from the buyer for a set period) or flexible closing dates to help smooth out that transition as much as possible.

Here’s a simple visual that can help you think through your options (see below):

But the best way to determine what’s best for you and your specific situation? Talk to a trusted local agent.

Bottom Line

In many cases, selling first doesn’t just give you clarity, it gives you options. It helps you buy with more confidence, more financial power, and less pressure.

If you’re ready to make a move but not sure where to begin, talk to a local agent. They’ll walk you through your equity, your timing, and your local market so you can decide what’s right for you.

Continue Reading

For Buyers

Should You Buy a Vacation Home?

Published

on

a screenshot of a cellphone

Some Highlights

  • Now that summer’s here, you may be planning your next getaway. But what if you didn’t have to? ​
  • Buying a vacation home means having a built-in escape you can use year after year. It gives you the chance to generate rental income and have a go-to retirement destination in the future.
  • If you’re dreaming of owning your own slice of paradise, connect with an agent to see if you can make it happen this summer.​

Continue Reading

Subscribe for Weekly

Real Estate Insights

Advertisement

Trending

Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.