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Should We Be Looking at Unemployment Numbers Differently?

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The New York Times recently ran an article regarding unemployment titled: Don’t Cheer Too Soon. Keep an Eye on the Core Jobless Rate. The piece suggests we should look at unemployment numbers somewhat differently. The author of the article, Jed Kolko, is a well-respected economist who is currently the Chief Economist at Indeed, the world’s largest online jobs site. Previously, he was Chief Economist and VP of Analytics at Trulia, the online real estate site.

Kolko suggests “the coronavirus pandemic has broken most economic charts and models, and all the numbers we regularly watch need a closer look.” He goes on to explain that the decline in the unemployment number reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) earlier this month was driven by a drop in temporary layoffs. If we strip those out, we’re left with what Kolko calls the core unemployment rate. Many economists have struggled with how to deal with the vast number of temporary layoffs, as a complete shutdown of the economy has never happened before. As the article states, in the last unemployment report:

“73 percent of all unemployed people said they were temporarily unemployed, which means they had a return-to-work date or they expected to return to work in six months. Before the pandemic, temporary unemployment was never more than one-quarter of total unemployment.”

The core unemployment rate handles this issue and also deals with another concern economists have discussed for years: the exclusion of the marginally attached. These are people who are available and want to work, but count as out of the labor force rather than unemployed because they haven’t searched for work in the past four weeks.

Kolko’s core rate does three things:

  1. Takes out temporary unemployment
  2. Retains the rest of the standard unemployment definition: permanent job losers, job leavers, and people returning to or entering the labor force
  3. Adds in the marginally attached

Removing the temporarily unemployed makes sense according to the article:

“Initial pandemic relief efforts focused on money for people to manage a temporary loss of income and funds to keep businesses afloat until they could bring their workers back. The hope and the goal is for the temporarily unemployed to return to their old jobs, rather than have them lose their jobs and have to search for new ones when jobs have become scarcer.”

The Bad News and the Good News

Clearly, the adjustments Kolko makes dramatically impact the way we look at unemployment. The bad news is, using his core rate, there was an increase in unemployment from April to May. The conventional rate reported by the BLS showed a decrease in unemployment.

The good news is that the core rate compares more favorably to the last recession in 2008. Here’s the breakdown:Should We Be Looking at Unemployment Numbers Differently? | Simplifying The Market

Bottom Line

The unemployment rate is a key indicator of how the economy is doing. Heading into a highly contested election this November, the BLS report releasing next week will be scrutinized like no other by members on both sides of the aisle. Mr. Kolko’s take is just one additional way to evaluate how unemployment is impacting American families.

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For Buyers

More Homes, Slower Price Growth – What It Means for You as a Buyer

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There are more homes on the market right now than there have been in years – and that could be a game changer for you if you’re ready to buy. Let’s look at two reasons why.

You Have More Options To Choose From

An article from Realtor.com helps explain just how much the number of homes for sale has gone up this year:

“There were 29.2% more homes actively for sale on a typical day in October compared with the same time in 2023, marking the twelfth consecutive month of annual inventory growth and the highest count since December 2019.”

And while the number of homes on the market still isn’t quite back to where it was in the years leading up to the pandemic, this is definitely an improvement (see graph below):

a graph of a number of homesWith more homes available for sale now, you have more options to choose from. As Hannah Jones, Senior Economic Research Analyst at Realtor.com, explains:

“Though still lower than pre-pandemic, burgeoning home supply means buyers have more options . . .

That means you have a better chance of finding a house that meets your needs. It also means the buying process doesn’t have to feel quite as rushed, because more options on the market means you’ll likely face less competition from other buyers.

Home Price Growth Is Slowing

When there aren’t many homes for sale, buyers have to compete more fiercely for the ones that are available. That’s what happened a few years ago, and it’s what drove prices up so quickly.

But now, the increasing number of homes on the market is causing home price growth to slow down (see graph below):

a graph of green and blue linesIn certain markets, the number of available homes has not only bounced back to normal, but has even surpassed pre-pandemic levels. In those areas, home price growth has slowed or stalled completely. As Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub, explains:

“Generally speaking, housing markets where active inventory has returned to pre-pandemic 2019 levels have seen home price growth soften or even decline outright from their 2022 peak.”

Slower or stalled price growth could give you a better chance of finding something within your budget. As Dr. Anju Vajja, Deputy Director at the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), says:

“For the third consecutive month U.S. house prices showed little movement . . . relatively flat house prices may improve housing affordability.

But remember, inventory levels and home prices are going to vary by market.

So, having a real estate agent who knows the local area can be a big advantage. They can help you understand the trends in your community, which can make a real difference in finding a home that fits your needs and budget.

Bottom Line

More housing options – and the slower home price growth they bring – can help you find and buy a home that works for your lifestyle and budget. So don’t hesitate to reach out to a local real estate agent if you want to talk about the growing number of choices you have right now.

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Buying Tips

The Majority of Veterans Are Unaware of a Key VA Loan Benefit

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For over 79 years, Veterans Affairs (VA) home loans have helped countless Veterans achieve the dream of homeownership. But according to Veterans United, only 3 in 10 Veterans realize they may be able to buy a home without needing a down payment (see visual below):

a group of people in circlesThat’s why it’s so important for Veterans – and anyone who cares about a Veteran – to be aware of this valuable program. Knowing about the resources available can make the path to homeownership easier and keep life-changing plans from being put on hold. As Veterans United explains:

“The ability to buy with 0% down is the signature advantage of this nearly 80-year-old benefit program. Eligible Veterans can buy as much house as they can afford, all without the need to spend years saving for a down payment.”

The Advantages of VA Home Loans

VA home loans are designed to make homeownership a reality for those who have served our country. These loans come with the following benefits according to the Department of Veterans Affairs:

  • Options for No Down Payment: One of the biggest perks is that many Veterans can buy a home with no down payment at all, making it simpler to get started on your homebuying journey.
  • Limited Closing Costs: With VA loans, there are limits on the types of closing costs Veterans have to pay. This helps keep more money in your pocket when you’re ready to finalize the sale.
  • No Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI): Unlike many other loan types, VA loans don’t require PMI, even with lower down payments. This means lower monthly payments, which adds up to big savings over time.

Your team of expert real estate professionals, including a local agent and a trusted lender, are the best resource to understand all the options and advantages available to help you achieve your homebuying goals.

Bottom Line

Owning a home is a key part of the American Dream, and VA home loans are a powerful benefit for those who’ve served our country. Work with a real estate professional to make sure you have everything you need to make confident decisions in the housing market.

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For Buyers

Renting vs. Buying: The Net Worth Gap You Need To See

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Trying to decide between renting or buying a home? One key factor that could help you choose is just how much homeownership can grow your net worth.

Every three years, the Federal Reserve Board shares a report called the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF). It shows how much wealth homeowners and renters have – and the difference is significant.

On average, a homeowner’s net worth is nearly 40 times higher than a renter’s. Check out the graph below to see the difference for yourself:

Why Homeowner Wealth Is So High

In the previous version of that report, the average homeowner’s net worth was about $255,000, while the average renter’s was just $6,300. That’s still a big gap. But in the most recent update, the spread got even bigger as homeowner wealth grew even more (see graph below):

a graph with green line and orange lineAs the SCF report says:

“. . . the 2019-2022 growth in median net worth was the largest three-year increase over the history of the modern SCF, more than double the next-largest one on record.”

One big reason why homeowner wealth shot up is home equity.

Equity is the difference between your home’s value and what you owe on your mortgage. You gain equity by paying down your mortgage and when your home’s value goes up.

Over the past few years, home prices have gone up a lot. That’s because there weren’t enough available homes for all the people who wanted one. This supply-demand imbalance pushed home prices up – and that translated into faster equity gains and even more net worth for homeowners.

If you’re still torn between whether to rent or buy, here’s what you should know. While inventory has grown this year, in most places, there’s still not enough to go around. That’s why expert forecasts show prices are expected to go up again next year nationally. It’ll just be at a more moderate pace.

While that’s not the sky-high appreciation we saw during the pandemic, it still means potential equity gains for you if you buy now. As Ksenia Potapov, Economist at First American, explains:

“Despite the risk of volatility in the housing market, homeownership remains an important driver of wealth accumulation and the largest source of total wealth among most households.”

But prices and inventory are going to vary by area. So, lean on a local real estate agent. They’ll be able to give you the local trends and speak to the other financial and lifestyle benefits that come with owning a home. That crucial information will help you decide the best move for you right now. As Bankrate explains:

“Deciding between renting and buying a home isn’t just about cost — the decision also involves long-term financial strategies and personal circumstances. If you’re on the fence about which is right for you, it may be helpful to speak with a local real estate agent who knows your market well. An experienced agent can help you weigh your options and make a more informed decision.

Bottom Line

If you’re not sure if you should rent or buy, keep in mind that if you can make the numbers work, owning a home can really grow your wealth over time.

And if homeownership feels out of reach, connect with a local real estate agent and lender. They can help you explore programs that may make buying possible.

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The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.