The Federal Reserve (the Fed) meets this week, and expectations are high that they’ll cut the Federal Funds Rate. But does that mean mortgage rates will drop? Let’s clear up the confusion.

The Fed Doesn’t Directly Set Mortgage Rates

Right now, all eyes are on the Fed. Most economists expect they’ll cut the Federal Funds Rate at their mid-September meeting to try to head off a potential recession.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are already betting on it. There’s virtually a 100% chance of a September cut. And based on what we know now, there’s about a 92% chance it’ll be a small cut (25 basis points) and an 8% chance it will be a bigger cut (50 basis points):

So, what exactly is the Federal Funds Rate? It’s the short-term interest rate banks charge each other. It impacts borrowing costs across the economy, but it’s not the same thing as mortgage rates. Still, the Fed’s actions can shape the direction mortgage rates take next.

Why Markets Already Saw This Cut Coming

Here’s the part that may surprise you. Mortgage rates tend to respond to what the financial markets think the Fed will do, before the Fed officially acts. Basically, when markets anticipate a Fed cut, that outlook gets priced into mortgage rates ahead of time.

That’s exactly what happened after weaker-than-expected jobs reports on August 1 and September 5. Each time, mortgage rates ticked down as financial markets grew more confident a cut was coming soon. And even though inflation rose slightly in the latest CPI report, the Fed is still expected to make a cut.

So, if the Fed goes with a 25-basis point cut, as expected, that’s likely already baked in to current mortgage rates, and we may not see a dramatic drop.

But if they go bigger and drop their Federal Funds Rate by 50 basis points instead, mortgage rates could come down more than they already have.

So, Where Do Mortgage Rates Go from Here?

While the upcoming cut may not move the needle much, many experts expect the Fed could cut the Federal Funds Rate more than once before the end of the year. Of course, that’s if the economy continues to cool (see graph below):

As Sam Williamson, Senior Economist at First American, explains:

“For mortgage rates, investor confidence in a forthcoming rate-cutting cycle could help push borrowing costs lower in the back half of 2025, offering some relief to housing affordability and potentially helping to boost buyer demand and overall market activity.”

If multiple rate cuts happen, or even if markets just believe they will, mortgage rates could ease further in the months ahead. But here’s the catch – all of this depends on how the economy evolves. Surprise inflation data or unexpected shifts could quickly change the outlook.

Bottom Line

Mortgage rates likely won’t drop sharply overnight, and they won’t mirror the Fed’s moves one-for-one. But if the Fed begins a rate-cutting cycle, and markets continue to expect it, mortgage rates could trend lower later this year and into 2026.

If you’ve been waiting and watching the housing market, now’s the time to talk strategy. Even small changes in rates can make a meaningful difference in affordability, and understanding what’s ahead helps you make the best decision for your situation.

You’ve been waiting for what feels like forever for mortgage rates to finally budge. And last week, they did – in a big way.

On Friday, September 5^th, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to the lowest level since October 2024. It was the biggest one-day decline in over a year.

What Sparked the Drop?

According to Mortgage News Daily, this was a reaction to the August jobs report, which came out weaker-than-expected for a second month in a row. That sent signals across the financial markets, and then mortgage rates came down as a result.

Basically, we’re seeing signs the economy may be slowing down, and as certainty grows in the direction the economy is going, the markets are reacting to what is likely ahead. That historically brings mortgage rates down.

Why Buyers Should Pay Attention Now

But this isn’t just about one day of headlines or one report. It’s about what the drop means for you.

This recent change saves you money when you buy a home. The chart below shows you an example of what a monthly mortgage payment (principal and interest) would be at 7% (where mortgage rates were in May) versus where rates roughly are now:

Compared to just 4 months ago, your future monthly payment would be almost $200 less per month. That’s close to $2,400 a year in savings.

How Long Will It Last?

That really depends on where the economy and inflation go from here. Rates could drop lower, or they could inch up slightly. 

So, make sure you’re connected with a good agent and trusted lender. They’ll keep a close eye on inflation indicators, job market updates, and reactions to upcoming Fed policy to gauge where mortgage rates may go from here.

But for now, focus on this. While no one can say for sure where rates are headed, the fact that rates broke out of their months-long rut is a good thing. If you’ve been feeling stuck, this could make the start of a new chapter. As Diana Olick, Senior Real Estate and Climate Correspondent at CNBC, says:

“Rates are finally breaking out of the high 6% range, where they’ve been stuck for months.” 

And that’s gives you more reason to hope than you’ve had in quite some time.

Bottom Line

This is the shift you’ve been waiting for.

Mortgage rates just saw their biggest decline in over a year. And if rates stay near this level, it could make a home you couldn’t afford just a few months ago feel possible again.

What would today’s rates save you on your future monthly payment? Connect with an agent or lender so you can find out.

Even with more homes on the market right now, some buyers are still having a tough time finding the right one at the right price. Maybe the layout feels off. Maybe it still needs some updating. Or maybe it’s just more of the same.

That’s why more buyers are turning to new construction – and finding some of the best deals available today.

Why? Today, many builders have more homes that are finished and sitting on the market than normal. And that means they’re motivated to sell. They’re running a business, and they don’t want to sit on their inventory. They want to sell it before they build more homes. And that can definitely work in your favor.

As Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub, puts it:

“In housing markets where unsold completed inventory has built up, many homebuilders have pulled back on their spec builds—and many are doing bigger incentives or outright price cuts to move unsold inventory.”

Incentives Are the Highest They’ve Been in 5 Years

Data from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) shows 66% of builders offered sales incentives in August. That’s the peak so far this year, and the highest percentage we’ve seen in 5 years.

That means 2 out of every 3 builders are offering something extra to get deals done. And when builders throw in incentives, it’s the buyers like you who win.

Price Cuts Are Back on the Table

One of the most common incentives they’re offering right now is adjusting the price. According to NAHB, almost 40% of builders are doing price cuts (see graph below):

On average they’re taking off about 5% off the purchase price of the house. For a buyer, 5% could be the difference between reluctantly settling and finally getting a home that works for you.

Take a $500,000 house as an example. If builders reduce the price by 5%, you’re saving $25,000.

And even if the builder you’re interested in won’t budge on price, they’ve got plenty of other levers to pull. As Realtor.com explains: 

“. . . there are deals to be found in the market for new homes, with builders increasingly willing to negotiate on price or offer incentives such as rate buydowns and closing cost assistance.”

Why This Matters for You

As a buyer, you probably have a clear vision for your ideal home. Because you’re not just buying any house. You’re buying your house. The one with the space, features, and lifestyle you’ve been hoping for. New builds can check those boxes since they usually have: 

• Bigger kitchens and open layouts
• Energy efficiency (hello lower utility bills)
• Smart-home upgrades
• Fewer repair headaches on day one

And today’s incentives make buying a new home more attainable than it’s been in years.

One Word of Advice: Don’t Go At It Alone

If you want to take advantage of this opportunity, just be sure to use your own agent. Builder reps aren’t there to save you money. They protect the builder’s bottom line. That’s why you need to bring your agent with you. Your agent will:

• Cut through the sales pitch and run the cold hard numbers
• Spot which incentives are actually worth it (and which ones are fluff)
• Handle negotiations so you walk away with the best deal possible
• Keep your best interest as their top priority

Bottom Line

If you’re not finding a home you love, the new home market is buzzing with opportunity. With record-high incentives, price cuts in play, and builders itching to move inventory, this is the best time in years to buy new construction.

Curious how far today’s incentives could stretch your budget? Connect with an agent to see what builders are offering in your area.