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What Do Experts See on the Horizon for the Second Half of the Year?

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As we move into the latter half of the year, questions about what’s to come are top of mind for buyers and sellers. Near record-low mortgage rates coupled with rising home price appreciation kicked off a robust housing market in the first half of 2021, but what does the forecast tell us about what’s on the horizon?

Mortgage Rates Will Likely Increase, but Remain Low

Many experts are projecting a rise in interest rates. The latest Quarterly Forecast from Freddie Mac states:

We forecast that mortgage rates will continue to rise through the end of next year. We estimate the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will average 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2021, rising to 3.8% in the fourth quarter of 2022.”

However, even as mortgage rates rise, the anticipated increase is expected to be modest at most, and still well below historical averages. Rates remaining low is good news for homebuyers who are looking to maximize their purchasing power. The same report from Freddie Mac goes on to say:

“While higher mortgage rates will help slow the pace of home sales and moderate house price growth, we expect overall housing market activity will remain robust. Our forecast has total home sales, the sum of new and existing home sales, at 7.1 million in 2021….”

Home Price Appreciation Will Continue, but Price Growth Will Likely Slow

Joe Seydl, Senior Markets Economist at J.P. Morgan, projects home prices to continue rising as well, indicating buyers interested in purchasing a home should do so sooner rather than later. Waiting for rates or home prices to fall may not be wise:

“Homebuyers—interest rates are still historically low, though they are inching up. Housing prices have spiked during the last six-to-nine months, but we don’t expect them to fall soon, and we believe they are more likely to keep rising. If you are looking to purchase a new home, conditions now may be better than 12 months hence.”

Other experts remain optimistic about home prices, too. The graph below highlights 2021 home price forecasts from multiple industry leaders:
What Do Experts See on the Horizon for the Second Half of the Year? | Simplifying The Market

Inventory Remains a Challenge, but There’s Reason To Be Optimistic

Home prices are rising, but they should moderate as more housing inventory comes to market. George Ratiu, Senior Economist at realtor.com, notes there are signs that we may see the current inventory challenges lessen, slowing the fast-paced home price appreciation and creating more choices for buyers:

We have seen more new listings this year compared with 2020 in 11 of the last 13 weeks. The influx of new sellers over the last couple of months has been especially helpful in slowing price gains.”

New home starts are also showing signs of improvement, which further bolsters hopes of more options coming to market. Robert Dietz, Chief Economist at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), writes:

“As an indicator of the economic impact of housing, there are now 652,000 single-family homes under construction. This is 28% higher than a year ago.”

Finally, while it may not fundamentally change the market conditions we’re currently experiencing, another reason to be optimistic more homes might come to market: our improving economy. Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, notes:

“A growing economy in the summer months has multiple implications for the housing market. Growing consumer confidence, a stronger labor market, and higher wages bode well for housing demand. While a growing economy and improving public health conditions may also spur hesitant existing owners to list their homes for sale, it’s unlikely to significantly ease the super sellers’ market conditions.

Bottom Line

As we look at the forecast for prices, interest rates, inventory, and home sales, experts remain optimistic about what’s on the horizon for the second half of 2021. Let’s connect today to discuss how we can navigate the market together in the coming months.

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For Buyers

More Homes for Sale Isn’t a Warning Sign – It’s Your Buying Opportunity

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Maybe you’ve heard the number of homes for sale has reached a recent high. And it might make you question if this is the start of another housing market crash.

But the reality is, the data proves that’s just not the case. In most areas, more inventory isn’t bad news. It’s actually a sign of the market returning to a more stable, healthy place.

What’s Going on With Inventory?

Based on the latest data from Realtor.com, inventory just hit its highest point since 2020, shown with the white line in the graph below.

But what you need to realize is, at the same time, inventory levels still haven’t returned to pre-pandemic norms (shown in gray):

a graph of different colored linesThat means there are more homes for sale now than there have been in quite some time.

And while it’s true inventory is up significantly compared to where it was over the last few years, the number of homes on the market is still well below typical levels. And that’s important context.

Why This Isn’t the Problem A Lot of People Think It Is

Some people hear inventory’s rising and immediately think about 2008. Because back then, inventory spiked just before the market crashed. But today’s situation is very different.

Here’s the key reason why. We don’t have a surplus of homes; we have a deficit to climb out of. What we’re dealing with is a long-term housing shortage – and it’s a big one.

The red bars in the graph below show all the years where housing starts (new builds) didn’t keep up with household formation, going all the way back to 2012. The deeper the bars in the graph, the more the housing deficit grew (see graph below):

a graph of a graph showing the value of a housing deficitAnd one of the reasons this housing shortage kept growing is because new home construction just didn’t keep up with the number of people who need to buy homes. In fact, the U.S. is actually short millions of homes at this point, and it will take years to overcome that gap. Realtor.com says:

“At a 2024 rate of construction relative to household formations and pent-up demand, it would take 7.5 years to close the housing gap.

That means, in most areas, there isn’t a risk of having too many houses on the market right now. It’s quite the opposite – a vast majority of markets actually need more homes.

Which is why, even though inventory is rising, it’s not a problem on a national scale. It’s just helping to fill a gap that’s been growing for years.

Bottom Line

Don’t let the headlines scare you. Rising inventory isn’t a sign of a crash. It’s a step toward a more normal, stable housing market.

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Buying Tips

What Buyers Need To Know About Homeowners Association Fees

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When buying a home, you’re probably thinking about mortgage rates, home prices, your down payment, and maybe even your closing costs. But you may not be thinking about homeowners association (HOA) fees. While you won’t necessarily have these, you should know it’s a possibility, depending on where you decide to live.

A homeowners association is basically an organization that oversees a housing community (including shared spaces) and sets and enforces rules for things like upkeep. Some buyers love the perks that come with an HOA, others may see the fees as an extra expense. The key is knowing what they cover and whether the benefits outweigh the costs for you.

The Benefits of Having an HOA

Think about this. If you’ve fallen in love with a home because of how beautiful the community is – maybe it’s the landscaping, the well-maintained streets, or the overall curb appeal – there’s a good chance the HOA is one of the reasons why it looks so good. Here are some of the biggest perks:

  • Neighborhood Maintenance: Many HOAs cover landscaping, snow removal, and upkeep of common areas. This helps maintain the neighborhood’s overall appearance.
  • Amenities: Depending on the neighborhood, an HOA could also include access to perks like a pool, clubhouse, fitness center, or even private security. In these cases, while you have to pay an HOA fee, you’re also saving money in some ways because you don’t need to have separate gym or pool memberships anymore.
  • Property Value Protection: Since HOAs enforce community standards, they prevent homes from falling into disrepair. So, you don’t have to worry about nearby eyesores hurting your property value.
  • Less Personal Upkeep: In some communities, HOAs even take care of exterior maintenance, roof repairs, or other shared responsibilities, reducing the work for homeowners.

HOA Fees: More Common, Especially in Newer Neighborhoods

Does every house have HOA fees? No, not all homes have them. But they are common, especially in newer communities. In fact, over 80% of newly built single-family homes are now part of an HOA, according to the Wall Street Journal (see graph below):

a graph with a line going upBut it’s not just new builds that have homeowners associations. Homes that were previously lived in may have an HOA fee too. According to Axios roughly 4 out of every 10 homes had an HOA in 2024.

HOA Fees and Your Home Search

Ask your agent about which homes do and do not have HOA fees as part of your search – and how much the fees are. Some neighborhoods have quarterly dues, some have monthly, some don’t have any at all. To give you some sort of baseline though, the median HOA fee rose last year to $125 per month, based on a report from Realtor.com.

But remember, the costs vary and sometimes these fees give you access to great perks. As Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, explains:

“When considering a home with an HOA, buyers should work to understand what benefits it provides like maintenance, security, or communal amenities, and how the HOA fees factor into their overall budget.”

Bottom Line

Before buying a home in an HOA community, it’s a good idea to review the rules and fees so you know exactly what’s included, how that fits into your overall budget, and what restrictions may apply.

Would you rather pay an HOA fee for added perks, or skip it and have full control over your property? Connect with an agent to talk about what’s best for you.

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Buying Tips

Housing Market Forecasts for the Second Half of 2025

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Some Highlights

  • Are you wondering what to expect if you buy or sell a home in the second half of the year? Here’s what the expert forecasts tell you.
  • Mortgage rates are expected to come down slightly. There will be more homes available for sale. And as inventory rises, home price growth will moderate.
  • Want to know what this could mean for your plans? Connect with a local agent and talk through it together.

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The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, Landshark Mark, LLC and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.