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3 Charts That Show This Isn’t a Housing Bubble

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With home prices continuing to deliver double-digit increases, some are concerned we’re in a housing bubble like the one in 2006. However, a closer look at the market data indicates this is nothing like 2006 for three major reasons.

1. The housing market isn’t driven by risky mortgage loans.

Back in 2006, nearly everyone could qualify for a loan. The Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) from the Mortgage Bankers’ Association is an indicator of the availability of mortgage money. The higher the index, the easier it is to obtain a mortgage. The MCAI more than doubled from 2004 (378) to 2006 (869). Today, the index stands at 130. As an example of the difference between today and 2006, let’s look at the volume of mortgages that originated when a buyer had less than a 620 credit score.3 Charts That Show This Isn’t a Housing Bubble | Simplifying The MarketDr. Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist for CoreLogic, reiterates this point:

“There are marked differences in today’s run up in prices compared to 2005, which was a bubble fueled by risky loans and lenient underwriting. Today, loans with high-risk features are absent and mortgage underwriting is prudent.”

2. Homeowners aren’t using their homes as ATMs this time.

During the housing bubble, as prices skyrocketed, people were refinancing their homes and pulling out large sums of cash. As prices began to fall, that caused many to spiral into a negative equity situation (where their mortgage was higher than the value of the house).

Today, homeowners are letting their equity build. Tappable equity is the amount available for homeowners to access before hitting a maximum 80% combined loan-to-value ratio (thus still leaving them with at least 20% equity). In 2006, that number was $4.6 billion. Today, that number stands at over $8 billion.

Yet, the percentage of cash-out refinances (where the homeowner takes out at least 5% more than their original mortgage amount) is half of what it was in 2006.3 Charts That Show This Isn’t a Housing Bubble | Simplifying The Market

3. This time, it’s simply a matter of supply and demand.

FOMO (the Fear Of Missing Out) dominated the housing market leading up to the 2006 housing bubble and drove up buyer demand. Back then, housing supply more than kept up as many homeowners put their houses on the market, as evidenced by the over seven months’ supply of existing housing inventory available for sale in 2006. Today, that number is barely two months.

Builders also overbuilt during the bubble but pulled back significantly over the next decade. Sam Khater, VP and Chief Economist, Economic & Housing Research at Freddie Mac, explains that pullback is the major factor in the lack of available inventory today:

“The main driver of the housing shortfall has been the long-term decline in the construction of single-family homes.”

Here’s a chart that quantifies Khater’s remarks:3 Charts That Show This Isn’t a Housing Bubble | Simplifying The MarketToday, there are simply not enough homes to keep up with current demand.

Bottom Line

This market is nothing like the run-up to 2006. Bill McBride, the author of the prestigious Calculated Risk blog, predicted the last housing bubble and crash. This is what he has to say about today’s housing market:

“It’s not clear at all to me that things are going to slow down significantly in the near future. In 2005, I had a strong sense that the hot market would turn and that, when it turned, things would get very ugly. Today, I don’t have that sense at all, because all of the fundamentals are there. Demand will be high for a while because Millennials need houses. Prices will keep rising for a while because inventory is so low.”

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Agent Value

Why You Don’t Want To Skip Your Home Inspection

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When you finally find the home you want to buy, it’s easy to get caught up in the excitement. You’ve toured the place, imagined your furniture in it, maybe even pictured your morning coffee on the porch. The last thing you want is to slow down the process with more steps or lose out to another buyer’s offer because they skipped their inspection.

But here’s the thing. Buying a home is one of the biggest financial decisions you’ll ever make. And no matter how perfect that house seems, skipping a home inspection is a risk that could cost you a lot more than just time.

What Exactly Is a Home Inspection?

A home inspection gives you a detailed look at the home’s condition, usually after your offer’s accepted but before closing. While what’s covered varies by state, an inspector usually goes over the home’s major systems and structure, including things like the roof, foundation, plumbing, electrical, HVAC, and more.

Why an Inspection Is Worth It

Here’s a quick rundown of some of the biggest benefits of getting an inspection.

  • Helps you avoid unpleasant surprises. A house might seem move-in ready, but could have issues you didn’t see during your walkthrough. Knowing about these before closing day is important. That way, you have a better idea of what work may need to be done to the home.
  • Gives you negotiating power. Depending on what the inspection turns up, you may want to re-negotiate with the seller. For that, lean on your agent. With their help, you can ask the seller to handle repairs before closing day or provide a credit so you can take care of them yourself.
  • Offers you peace of mind. Buying a home is emotional, especially if you’ve been searching for a while. An inspection helps take some of the uncertainty off your plate, so you can move forward with confidence.

A few hundred dollars upfront for the home inspection could save you thousands in surprise repairs later. As the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says:

“Failure to obtain a home inspection could potentially cost you a great deal of money and hassles in the long run.”  

Why You Don’t Want To Waive Your Inspection

According to the latest data from NAR, nearly 1 in 4 buyers are waiving (or removing) the inspection contingency when they buy a home. And with spring being peak homebuying season and buyer activity already heating up, you may be thinking about doing that yourself. As Realtor.com points out:

“ . . . if you’re in a hot real estate market where homes are getting multiple offers, there might be a temptation to skip an inspection when you really want the house. However, waiving a home inspection comes with sizable risks.”

But skipping the inspection is a gamble that doesn’t necessarily pay off. Just remember, there are other ways to make your offer attractive to sellers, like being flexible with the closing date. Before making an offer, talk to your agent about other ways to get a seller’s attention without sacrificing your peace of mind.

Bottom Line

Even if skipping an inspection sounds like a way to make your offer more competitive or speed things up, it’s risky. It’s not just extra time and documentation, it’s a smart step that protects your wallet, your investment, and your future.

If you could ask a home inspector one question before buying, what would it be? Let your agent know so it’s the first thing they bring up when the time comes. 

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Buying Tips

House Hunting Just Got Easier – Here’s Why

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If you’ve been frustrated by the lack of homes for sale over the past few years, here’s some good news. You have more options, so it may finally be time to kick off your home search again. As Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin, explains:

Now is the best time to buy in the last two years. Mortgage rates are comparable to what they were two years ago, and prices remain high. However, there is significantly more inventory . . .

The number of homes for sale has grown compared to last year, and even more options are on the way. While this is typical for the busy spring season, here’s why this is so important right now.

Homeowners are listing their houses at the highest pace we’ve seen in a while.

New Listings Are on the Rise

Over the past few months, the number of new listings, or homes that have recently been put on the market for sale, has been steadily rising (see graph below):

a graph of a number of blue and green barsBasically, more people are putting their homes on the market each month – whether they’re moving up, downsizing, or relocating. And this trend is a positive sign for the housing market.

Sellers who may have been on the fence the past few years are starting to jump back in. That’s helping to boost overall inventory and create better opportunities for both buyers and move-up sellers alike.

But it’s not just that the number of fresh options is up month-over-month; there’s also been a jump compared to last year.

According to Realtor.com, new listings in March were 10.2% higher than last year, making it the biggest March for new listings since 2021 (see graph below):

For anyone who’s been waiting for more choices, this is exactly what you’ve been hoping for – because more homes coming onto the market means more options and a better shot at finding one that fits your needs.

To make sure you don’t miss out on any of the latest listings for your area, lean on a local real estate agent.

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking about making a move this spring, now may be the time to start exploring your options. With more fresh listings hitting the market, you may find a home you love waiting for you.

What features or neighborhoods are at the top of your wish list?

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Buying Tips

Things To Avoid After You Apply for a Mortgage

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a close-up of a bank

Some Highlights

  • Once a lender has reviewed your finances as part of the homebuying process, you want to be as consistent as possible. Don’t make any big changes that could affect your mortgage application.
  • Here are a few tips. Don’t change bank accounts or apply for new credit. And this one may surprise you, don’t buy appliances or furniture for your next home yet either.
  • The best tip of all? Before you do anything financial in nature, talk to your lender first.

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The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, Landshark Mark, LLC and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.