Connect with us

For Buyers

3 Charts That Show This Isn’t a Housing Bubble

Published

on

With home prices continuing to deliver double-digit increases, some are concerned we’re in a housing bubble like the one in 2006. However, a closer look at the market data indicates this is nothing like 2006 for three major reasons.

1. The housing market isn’t driven by risky mortgage loans.

Back in 2006, nearly everyone could qualify for a loan. The Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) from the Mortgage Bankers’ Association is an indicator of the availability of mortgage money. The higher the index, the easier it is to obtain a mortgage. The MCAI more than doubled from 2004 (378) to 2006 (869). Today, the index stands at 130. As an example of the difference between today and 2006, let’s look at the volume of mortgages that originated when a buyer had less than a 620 credit score.3 Charts That Show This Isn’t a Housing Bubble | Simplifying The MarketDr. Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist for CoreLogic, reiterates this point:

“There are marked differences in today’s run up in prices compared to 2005, which was a bubble fueled by risky loans and lenient underwriting. Today, loans with high-risk features are absent and mortgage underwriting is prudent.”

2. Homeowners aren’t using their homes as ATMs this time.

During the housing bubble, as prices skyrocketed, people were refinancing their homes and pulling out large sums of cash. As prices began to fall, that caused many to spiral into a negative equity situation (where their mortgage was higher than the value of the house).

Today, homeowners are letting their equity build. Tappable equity is the amount available for homeowners to access before hitting a maximum 80% combined loan-to-value ratio (thus still leaving them with at least 20% equity). In 2006, that number was $4.6 billion. Today, that number stands at over $8 billion.

Yet, the percentage of cash-out refinances (where the homeowner takes out at least 5% more than their original mortgage amount) is half of what it was in 2006.3 Charts That Show This Isn’t a Housing Bubble | Simplifying The Market

3. This time, it’s simply a matter of supply and demand.

FOMO (the Fear Of Missing Out) dominated the housing market leading up to the 2006 housing bubble and drove up buyer demand. Back then, housing supply more than kept up as many homeowners put their houses on the market, as evidenced by the over seven months’ supply of existing housing inventory available for sale in 2006. Today, that number is barely two months.

Builders also overbuilt during the bubble but pulled back significantly over the next decade. Sam Khater, VP and Chief Economist, Economic & Housing Research at Freddie Mac, explains that pullback is the major factor in the lack of available inventory today:

“The main driver of the housing shortfall has been the long-term decline in the construction of single-family homes.”

Here’s a chart that quantifies Khater’s remarks:3 Charts That Show This Isn’t a Housing Bubble | Simplifying The MarketToday, there are simply not enough homes to keep up with current demand.

Bottom Line

This market is nothing like the run-up to 2006. Bill McBride, the author of the prestigious Calculated Risk blog, predicted the last housing bubble and crash. This is what he has to say about today’s housing market:

“It’s not clear at all to me that things are going to slow down significantly in the near future. In 2005, I had a strong sense that the hot market would turn and that, when it turned, things would get very ugly. Today, I don’t have that sense at all, because all of the fundamentals are there. Demand will be high for a while because Millennials need houses. Prices will keep rising for a while because inventory is so low.”

Continue Reading
Click to comment

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

For Buyers

What’s Motivating More Buyers To Choose a Newly Built Home?

Published

on

Planning to buy a home soon? Why not go for something brand-new? Because data shows a lot more buyers are seeing the appeal of new home construction these days – and you may find out it’s what you want too.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains that newly built homes accounted for 15% of all homes sold last year. That’s a significant increase, and is actually the highest percentage in 17 years (see graph below):

a graph of blue barsTo get a closer look at why so many people are opting for a brand-new home, NAR surveyed recent buyers. And here are the top reasons why new builds gained so much popularity (see graph below):

a graph of blue squares Avoiding Renovations or Problems with Plumbing or Electricity (42%)

According to buyers, the number one benefit is the peace of mind that comes with getting brand-new everything. Because let’s face it, buying a home right now is pricey. And with inflation also putting a pinch on your wallet, you want to do everything you can to cut down on any additional costs. Enter new builds.

A home that was just built is less likely to have unexpected repairs, and that means less maintenance you’ll need to budget for upfront. Plus, since many builders include warranties on their homes, that’s an added layer of protection for your wallet on some of the home’s major systems.

Ability To Choose and Customize Design Features (27%)

You may also get the chance to personalize parts of the build to your unique tastes. That can be as small as which knobs go on the cabinets and which light fixture goes in the dining room to as big as floor plans and siding color. So, if you’re not finding a home you like, it may be time to build one.

The Amenities of New Home Construction Communities (25%)

Many new developments also offer amenities like parks, pools, fitness centers, and community spaces. These features could help you feel more connected to your neighborhood and can be a great perk for your lifestyle.

Lack of Inventory of Previously Owned Homes (15%)

Since the supply of existing homes (homes that were previously lived in) is still lower than the norm, more people are asking their agents if they can see what builders have available – and builders aren’t disappointing. Right now, new builds make up a larger portion of the homes available for sale than the norm. So, checking out these homes can really open up your pool of options. And don’t worry – builders are not overbuilding. They’re just catching up after years of underbuilding.

Energy Efficiency (14%)

Not to mention, newly built homes usually have the latest energy-efficient materials and technologies. This not only feels good, but can also lead to lower utility bills and a reduced environmental footprint. In a U.S. News Real Estate interview with Kevin Morrow, Senior Program Manager at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), this topic came up:

“The more energy-efficient mechanics of the house also help reduce utility bills for new home buyers . . . Newly-constructed homes often include green systems and appliances—like high efficiency stoves, refrigerators, washing machines, water heaters, furnaces, or air conditioning units—that homes built years ago might not.”

Smart Home Features (11%)

And last on this list is the integration of smart technologies. Tech-savvy buyers often want the latest and greatest advancements – and new home construction usually delivers.

The Importance of Using Your Own Agent

Newly built homes are becoming a top pick for buyers these days, and it’s easy to see why. If you’re feeling motivated to see what’s out there, just remember you need to have your own real estate agent.

Builder contracts often have some complex terms and complicated fine print. If you bring your own agent, you’ll have someone to advocate for you, make sure you’re getting quality construction, and guide you through the process from start to finish. 

Bottom Line

Imagine skipping the hassle of renovations and having the freedom to pick out the exact design features you want. If this sounds good to you, connect with a local agent to make sure you’ve got an expert on your side to help you negotiate with the builder so you can buy a new home with confidence.

Continue Reading

First-Time Buyers

The Personal Joys of Having a Home To Call Your Own

Published

on

There’s no doubt that owning a home comes with significant financial benefits. And this time of year is a great time to reflect on the other reasons why owning a home is so meaningful.

A house is more than four walls and a roof – it’s a place where memories are made, connections are built, and life happens.

From the sense of accomplishment that comes with owning your own home to the joy of creating a space that’s uniquely yours, the emotional connections we have to our homes can be just as important as the financial ones.

Here are some of the things that turn a house into a happy home.

1. It’s an Accomplishment You Can Be Proud Of

Buying a home is a significant milestone, whether it’s your first or your fifth. You’ve worked hard to make it happen and achieving this goal is a reason to celebrate. There’s nothing quite like stepping through the door of a home that’s yours and knowing you’ve accomplished something truly special.

2. It’s a Place You Can Call Your Own

Compared to renting, owning a home can give you a much greater sense of security and privacy. It’s your own place – not your landlord’s – and that just feels different. No one else has the keys but you and that gives you your own personal safe place to retreat to at the end of a long day.

3. It’s a Space That’s Yours To Customize

Owning a home means you have the freedom to personalize it however you like. While there can be HOA guidelines you may have to follow depending on where you buy, you can still make it a reflection of your style and create a space that feels just right for you. As Freddie Mac explains:

“As the homeowner, you have the freedom to adopt a pet, paint the walls any color you choose, renovate your kitchen, and more. You can customize your own space without approval from landlords.”

4. It’s a Foundation for Building a Sense of Community

Homeownership often means putting down roots in a neighborhood and becoming a part of the local community. According to groups like Habitat for Humanity, owning a home increases your interest in getting involved with your neighbors and local organizations. Whether it’s through joining a neighborhood group, volunteering, or simply getting to know the people next door, a home is a great foundation for building meaningful connections.

Bottom Line

Owning a home is about so much more than financial benefits – it’s about the pride, well-being, and sense of belonging it can bring. When you’re ready to take the next step toward buying a home, connect with a local real estate agent.

Continue Reading

For Buyers

The #1 Reason People Move: To Be Closer to Family and Friends

Published

on

Have you ever thought about packing up and moving to be closer to the people who mean the most to you? Maybe you’re tired of long drives to see your family or wish your kids could spend more time with their grandparents. Clearly, a lot of other people feel the same way.

According to recent data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the desire to be near family and friends is the #1 reason people move (see graph below):

a screen shot of a graphThat’s because moving isn’t just about finding a new house – it’s about living a life where you’re surrounded by the people who matter most. Whether it’s catching up over weeknight dinners, watching your kids play with their cousins, or just knowing someone’s there when you need them, living near loved ones changes everything.

Let’s dive into why so many people are making this move and how it could be the best decision for you, too.

Why Family Comes First

Living near family and friends is a universal motivator that cuts across all types of buyers, whether you’re buying your first home or making a big lifestyle change.

But it’s especially important to repeat buyers. Unlike first-time homebuyers, who may be more focused on looking in more affordable areas, repeat buyers often have more flexibility on where they live. Many Baby Boomers, for example, have built significant equity in their homes, giving them the freedom to prioritize what matters most – like retiring near their grandkids. As Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, says:

“25% of Baby Boomer households plan to retire near their children and grandchildren . . .”

Making a move to be closer to friends and family is all about creating a meaningful next chapter in your life where loved ones are just around the corner.

The Benefits of Living Near Loved Ones

But moving closer isn’t just a lifestyle choice – it’s a decision that offers real benefits:

  1. Spending More Time Together Whether it’s joining family dinners, going to weekend activities, or simply having someone nearby to talk to, these moments strengthen relationships and make life more fulfilling.
  2. Sharing Resources Living close to family can provide practical advantages, too – like sharing childcare, tools, or household items.
  3. Cutting Down on Travel Instead of spending hours on the road to spend time together, you can enjoy more spontaneous visits. This not only enhances your quality of life, but it also provides peace of mind in case of emergencies.
  4. Being There for Big Moments It also offers both emotional and practical support during life’s milestones. From graduations to tough times, being close to loved ones helps you feel connected and cared for.

Ready To Make Your Move?

At the end of the day, home isn’t just a place you live – it’s where your people are. Whether you’re looking to spend more quality time with family or enjoy the practical benefits of being closer to loved ones, the decision to move closer to those you care about is a deeply personal one.

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking about making a change, a local real estate agent would love to help. Together, you can explore neighborhoods that brings you closer to the people and places you love most.

Continue Reading

Subscribe for Weekly

Real Estate Insights

Advertisement

Trending

Copyright © 2020-2024 Let's Talk Real Estate. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.