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3 Charts That Show This Isn’t a Housing Bubble

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With home prices continuing to deliver double-digit increases, some are concerned we’re in a housing bubble like the one in 2006. However, a closer look at the market data indicates this is nothing like 2006 for three major reasons.

1. The housing market isn’t driven by risky mortgage loans.

Back in 2006, nearly everyone could qualify for a loan. The Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) from the Mortgage Bankers’ Association is an indicator of the availability of mortgage money. The higher the index, the easier it is to obtain a mortgage. The MCAI more than doubled from 2004 (378) to 2006 (869). Today, the index stands at 130. As an example of the difference between today and 2006, let’s look at the volume of mortgages that originated when a buyer had less than a 620 credit score.3 Charts That Show This Isn’t a Housing Bubble | Simplifying The MarketDr. Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist for CoreLogic, reiterates this point:

“There are marked differences in today’s run up in prices compared to 2005, which was a bubble fueled by risky loans and lenient underwriting. Today, loans with high-risk features are absent and mortgage underwriting is prudent.”

2. Homeowners aren’t using their homes as ATMs this time.

During the housing bubble, as prices skyrocketed, people were refinancing their homes and pulling out large sums of cash. As prices began to fall, that caused many to spiral into a negative equity situation (where their mortgage was higher than the value of the house).

Today, homeowners are letting their equity build. Tappable equity is the amount available for homeowners to access before hitting a maximum 80% combined loan-to-value ratio (thus still leaving them with at least 20% equity). In 2006, that number was $4.6 billion. Today, that number stands at over $8 billion.

Yet, the percentage of cash-out refinances (where the homeowner takes out at least 5% more than their original mortgage amount) is half of what it was in 2006.3 Charts That Show This Isn’t a Housing Bubble | Simplifying The Market

3. This time, it’s simply a matter of supply and demand.

FOMO (the Fear Of Missing Out) dominated the housing market leading up to the 2006 housing bubble and drove up buyer demand. Back then, housing supply more than kept up as many homeowners put their houses on the market, as evidenced by the over seven months’ supply of existing housing inventory available for sale in 2006. Today, that number is barely two months.

Builders also overbuilt during the bubble but pulled back significantly over the next decade. Sam Khater, VP and Chief Economist, Economic & Housing Research at Freddie Mac, explains that pullback is the major factor in the lack of available inventory today:

“The main driver of the housing shortfall has been the long-term decline in the construction of single-family homes.”

Here’s a chart that quantifies Khater’s remarks:3 Charts That Show This Isn’t a Housing Bubble | Simplifying The MarketToday, there are simply not enough homes to keep up with current demand.

Bottom Line

This market is nothing like the run-up to 2006. Bill McBride, the author of the prestigious Calculated Risk blog, predicted the last housing bubble and crash. This is what he has to say about today’s housing market:

“It’s not clear at all to me that things are going to slow down significantly in the near future. In 2005, I had a strong sense that the hot market would turn and that, when it turned, things would get very ugly. Today, I don’t have that sense at all, because all of the fundamentals are there. Demand will be high for a while because Millennials need houses. Prices will keep rising for a while because inventory is so low.”

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For Buyers

Mortgage Rates Hit Lowest Point So Far This Year

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If you’ve been holding off on buying a home because of high mortgage rates, you might want to take another look at the market. That’s because mortgage rates have been trending down lately – and that gives you a chance to jump back in.

Mortgage rates have been declining for seven straight weeks now, according to data from Freddie Mac. And the average weekly rate is now at the lowest level so far this year (see graph below):

a graph with a line going upWhile that may not sound like a significant shift, it is noteworthy. Because the meaningful drop from over 7% to the mid-6’s can change your mindset when it comes to buying a home. Especially when the forecasts said we wouldn’t hit this number until roughly Q3 of this year (see graph below):

Why Are Rates Coming Down?

According to Joel Kan, VP and Deputy Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), recent economic uncertainty is playing a role in pushing rates lower:

“Mortgage rates declined last week on souring consumer sentiment regarding the economy and increasing uncertainty over the impact of new tariffs levied on imported goods into the U.S. Those factors resulted in the largest weekly decline in the 30-year fixed rate since November 2024.”

And the timing of this recent decline is great because it gives you a little bit of relief going into the spring market. Just remember, mortgage rates can be a quickly moving target, so you should expect some volatility going forward. But the window you have as they’re coming down right now might be the sweet spot for your purchasing power now.

What Lower Rates Mean for Your Buying Power

Even small changes in rates can make a difference to your monthly payment. Here’s how the math shakes out. The chart below shows what a monthly payment (principal and interest) would look like on a $400K home loan if you purchased a house when rates were 7.04% back in mid-January (this year’s mortgage rate high), versus what it could look like if you buy a home now (see below):

a blue and white table with white textIn just a matter of weeks, the anticipated payment on a $400K loan has come down by over $100 per month. That’s a significant savings. When you’re making a decision as big as buying a home, every bit counts.

Just remember, shifts in the economy drove rates down faster than expected. But that can change, making rates volatile in the days and months ahead. So, if you’re waiting for rates to fall further before you buy, think hard about the current window of opportunity if you’re ready to act.

Bottom Line

Mortgage rates have dipped, giving buyers a bit more immediate breathing room. If you’ve been waiting for rates to ease before jumping in, this could be your window.

Would a lower monthly payment make buying a home feel more doable for you?

Connect with an agent to break down the numbers and find out.

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Buying Tips

Should I Buy a Home Right Now? Experts Say Prices Are Only Going Up

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At one point or another, you’ve probably heard someone say, “Yesterday was the best time to buy a home, but the next best time is today.”

That’s because nationally, home values continue to rise. And with mortgage rates still stubbornly high and home prices going up, you may be holding out for prices to fall or trying to time the market for that perfect rate. But here’s the truth: waiting for the right moment could cost you in the long run.

Home Prices Are Still Rising – Just at a More Normal Pace

The idea that prices will drop dramatically is wishful thinking in most markets. According to the Home Price Expectations Survey from Fannie Mae, industry analysts are saying prices are projected to keep rising through at least 2029.

While we’re no longer seeing the steep spikes of previous years, experts project a steady and sustainable increase of around 3-4% per year, nationally. And the good news is, this is a much more normal pace – a welcome sign for hopeful buyers (see graph below):

What This Means for You

While it’s tempting to wait it out for prices or mortgage rates to decline before you buy, here’s what you’ll need to consider if you do.

  • Tomorrow’s home prices will be higher than today’s. The longer you wait, the more that purchase price will go up.
  • Waiting for the perfect mortgage rate or a price drop may backfire. Even if rates dip slightly, rising home prices could still make waiting more expensive overall.
  • Buying now means building equity sooner. Home values are rising, which means your investment starts growing as soon as you buy.

Let’s put real numbers into this equation. If you purchase a $400,000 home today, based on these price forecasts, it’s expected to go up in value by more than $83,000 over the next five years. That’s some serious money back in your pocket instead of being left on the sidelines (see graph below):

Why Aren’t Prices Dropping? It’s All About Supply and Demand

Even though there are more homes for sale right now than there were at this time last year, or even last month, there still aren’t enough of them on the market for all the buyers who want to purchase them. And that puts continued upward pressure on prices. As Redfin puts it:

“Prices will rise at a pace similar to that of the second half of 2024 because we don’t expect there to be enough new inventory to meet demand.”

While every market is different, most areas will continue to see moderate price growth. Some may level off a bit, but a major national drop? Not likely.

Bottom Line

Time in the Market Beats Timing the Market

If you’re debating whether to buy now or wait, remember this: real estate rewards those who get in the market, not those who try to time it perfectly.

Yes, today’s housing market has its challenges, but there are ways to make it work —exploring different neighborhoods, considering smaller condos or townhomes, asking your lender about alternative financing, or tapping into down payment assistance programs. The key is making a move when it makes sense for you rather than waiting for a perfect scenario that may never arrive.

Want to take a look at what’s happening with prices in your local market? Whether you’re ready to buy now or just exploring your options, reach out to a local agent so you have a plan in place that’ll set you up for success.

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Buying Tips

Headed Back Into the Office? You May Decide To Move

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It’s no secret that remote work has surged over the last few years. And that flexibility gave a lot of people the freedom to move — and work — from wherever they wanted.

But now, a growing number of companies are requiring employees to return to the office. And that’s leading some people to make decisions about where they live and if they need to move.

How Return-to-Work Policies Are Impacting Housing

During the rise of remote work, a lot of employees took the opportunity to move away from expensive or crowded city centers. Some opted for suburban neighborhoods and larger homes with yards, while others relocated to more rural areas. But lately, more people are returning to the city.

And according to data from Bright MLS, more than half of workers surveyed would have to rethink where they live or deal with long drive times if their job enforced a return-to-office policy (see chart below):

a pie chart with text on it with Crust in the backgroundAnd maybe you’re one of them. If you moved farther out of the city during the work-from-home era, you may be facing a longer commute that you never expected to make daily. Once you’ve done it a few times, you might find it’s something you can get used to and isn’t as bad as you may have thought.

But sometimes, it’s just too hard to make it work — no matter how much you try. A drive or train ride that seemed fine once or twice a week can feel like too much of a grind five days in a row. It may also cost too much to commute so often, take too long, or cut too far into your free time. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, notes:

“During the pandemic, when remote work became the norm, homebuyers were able to move farther out . . . But workers do not have the same flexibility that they used to, and some are going to have to make a tough choice if and when their employer calls them back into the office full-time.”

If you’re thinking you may want to move, don’t stress. Talking to an agent can help you weigh your options. Whether it’s finding a home closer to work, balancing commute time with affordability, or even selling a home in one area to buy in another, having a pro on your side makes the process easier.

Bottom Line

If having to be back in-office has you considering a move, an agent can help you figure out what’s possible and what makes sense for you.

Where do you see yourself living if your commute or work routine needs to change?

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Let's Talk Real Estate. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.