Connect with us

For Buyers

3 Charts That Show This Isn’t a Housing Bubble

Published

on

With home prices continuing to deliver double-digit increases, some are concerned we’re in a housing bubble like the one in 2006. However, a closer look at the market data indicates this is nothing like 2006 for three major reasons.

1. The housing market isn’t driven by risky mortgage loans.

Back in 2006, nearly everyone could qualify for a loan. The Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) from the Mortgage Bankers’ Association is an indicator of the availability of mortgage money. The higher the index, the easier it is to obtain a mortgage. The MCAI more than doubled from 2004 (378) to 2006 (869). Today, the index stands at 130. As an example of the difference between today and 2006, let’s look at the volume of mortgages that originated when a buyer had less than a 620 credit score.3 Charts That Show This Isn’t a Housing Bubble | Simplifying The MarketDr. Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist for CoreLogic, reiterates this point:

“There are marked differences in today’s run up in prices compared to 2005, which was a bubble fueled by risky loans and lenient underwriting. Today, loans with high-risk features are absent and mortgage underwriting is prudent.”

2. Homeowners aren’t using their homes as ATMs this time.

During the housing bubble, as prices skyrocketed, people were refinancing their homes and pulling out large sums of cash. As prices began to fall, that caused many to spiral into a negative equity situation (where their mortgage was higher than the value of the house).

Today, homeowners are letting their equity build. Tappable equity is the amount available for homeowners to access before hitting a maximum 80% combined loan-to-value ratio (thus still leaving them with at least 20% equity). In 2006, that number was $4.6 billion. Today, that number stands at over $8 billion.

Yet, the percentage of cash-out refinances (where the homeowner takes out at least 5% more than their original mortgage amount) is half of what it was in 2006.3 Charts That Show This Isn’t a Housing Bubble | Simplifying The Market

3. This time, it’s simply a matter of supply and demand.

FOMO (the Fear Of Missing Out) dominated the housing market leading up to the 2006 housing bubble and drove up buyer demand. Back then, housing supply more than kept up as many homeowners put their houses on the market, as evidenced by the over seven months’ supply of existing housing inventory available for sale in 2006. Today, that number is barely two months.

Builders also overbuilt during the bubble but pulled back significantly over the next decade. Sam Khater, VP and Chief Economist, Economic & Housing Research at Freddie Mac, explains that pullback is the major factor in the lack of available inventory today:

“The main driver of the housing shortfall has been the long-term decline in the construction of single-family homes.”

Here’s a chart that quantifies Khater’s remarks:3 Charts That Show This Isn’t a Housing Bubble | Simplifying The MarketToday, there are simply not enough homes to keep up with current demand.

Bottom Line

This market is nothing like the run-up to 2006. Bill McBride, the author of the prestigious Calculated Risk blog, predicted the last housing bubble and crash. This is what he has to say about today’s housing market:

“It’s not clear at all to me that things are going to slow down significantly in the near future. In 2005, I had a strong sense that the hot market would turn and that, when it turned, things would get very ugly. Today, I don’t have that sense at all, because all of the fundamentals are there. Demand will be high for a while because Millennials need houses. Prices will keep rising for a while because inventory is so low.”

Continue Reading
Click to comment

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Buying Tips

Buyer Bright Spot: There Are More Homes on the Market

Published

on

The past few years have been challenging for homebuyers, especially with higher home prices and mortgage rates. And if you’re trying to buy a home, it’s easy to worry you won’t be able to find something in your budget.

But here’s what you need to know. The number of homes for sale has grown a whole lot lately and that’s true for both existing (previously lived-in) and newly built homes. Here’s a look at those two bright spots for buyers right now and why they may make it a bit easier to find the home you’re been looking for.

1. There Are 22% More Existing Homes for Sale

Data from Realtor.com says the number of existing homes for sale improved by an impressive 22% in 2024. And experts say your pool of options is expected to get even better this year. Forecasts show inventory is projected to grow another 11-15% by the end of this year (see graph below):

a graph of sales in inventoryHere’s why this is so good for your search. If you haven’t seen a house with all the features you need, just know that, as the number of homes for sale grows, you’ll have more options to choose from. That means a better chance of finding a home that checks all your boxes. As Ralph McLaughlin, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, says:

It could be a particularly good time to get out into the market . . . you’re going to have more choice. And that’s not something that buyers have really had much over the past several years.”

2. There Are More Newly Built Homes on the Market

According to data from the Census and the National Association of Realtors (NAR), 31.1%, or roughly 1 in 3, homes on the market right now are newly built homes. That’s more than the norm (see charts below). But don’t worry, that’s not because builders are overdoing it – it’s just that they’re trying to catch up after years of underbuilding.

a graph of a pie chartAnd the best part is, since builders have been focusing on smaller homes with lower price points, you may actually find out new builds are less expensive than you’d expect. So, while a lot of people write off new construction because it’s easy to assume the costs are way higher, lately, that price gap isn’t as big as you’d think. As CNET says:

“If you live in an area where there’s a lot of new construction happening . . . you might be able to purchase a new house for a price similar to or even less than a pre-owned one.”

If you haven’t been able to find a home that’s in your budget, it’s time to ask your agent about new builds. If you don’t, you may have been cutting your pool of options by about a third.

Bottom Line

More choices could be the key to unlocking your homebuying goals in 2025. Talk to a local agent if you want to see what’s available in your area.

What features are you looking for in your next home? Let an agent know so they can put together a list of homes you’d love.

Continue Reading

For Buyers

The Real Benefits of Buying a Home This Year

Published

on

Have you been wondering whether you should keep renting or finally make the leap into homeownership? It’s a big decision, and let’s be real — renting can feel like the easier option, especially if buying a home feels out of reach.

But here’s the thing: a recent report from Bank of America highlights that 70% of prospective buyers fear the long-term consequences of renting, including not building equity and dealing with rising rents.

Maybe you’re feeling that too — concerned about where renting might leave you down the road, but still unsure if you’d even be able to buy right now. The truth is, if you’re able to make the numbers work, buying a home has powerful long-term financial benefits.

Let’s break down why homeownership is worth considering in 2025 and beyond, and how it can help set you up for the future.

Buying Builds Wealth Over Time

Buying a home allows you to turn your monthly housing costs into a long-term investment. That’s because, as shown in data from the Census and the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), home prices tend to increase over time (see graph below):

a graph of a price of houses sold in the united statesRising home prices directly benefit homeowners. That’s because when you own a home, you build equity — meaning your ownership stake in your home grows as you pay down your mortgage and your home’s value appreciates. And that, in turn, makes your net worth grow too.

Maybe that’s why, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), 79% of buyers believe owning a home is a good financial investment.

Renting Comes with Rising Costs

Renting may feel more affordable in the short term, especially right now with today’s home prices and mortgage rates. But the reality is, over time, rent almost always goes up too. Take a look at the data and you can see that play out. According to Census data, rents have significantly increased over the decades (see graph below):

a graph of a number of peopleThis means if you decide to rent, you’ll likely face growing expenses each time you renew or sign a new lease – and that’ll happen without building any wealth in return. Plus, those rising costs may make it harder to save up to buy a home down the road.

Renting vs. Buying: The Long-Term Impact

When you own a home, your payments are an investment in your future. Renting, on the other hand, means your money is gone for good — it helps your landlord build equity, not you.

Renting works for those not ready (or able) to buy today. But if you are able to make the numbers work, buying a home builds equity and sets you up for long-term financial success. So, even though renting may seem easier now, it can’t match the benefits of homeownership.

Bottom Line

If you can afford it, take control of your financial future by making homeownership part of your plan. It’s an investment you won’t regret.

Do you want to see what starter homes are available in your market? Connect with a local real estate agent today to explore your options.

Continue Reading

Affordability

Two Resources That Can Help You Buy a Home Right Now

Published

on

A recent report from Realtor.com says 20% of Americans don’t think homeownership is achievable. Maybe you feel the same way. With inflation driving up day-to-day expenses, saving enough to buy your first home is more of a challenge. But here’s the thing. With the right resources and help, you can still make it happen.

There are options that can help make buying a home possible today — even if your savings are limited or your credit isn’t perfect. Let’s explore just two of the solutions that could help get you into your first home no matter the market.

1. FHA Loans

If your down payment savings and your credit score aren’t where you want them to be, an FHA loan could be your pathway to buying a home. According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and Bankrate, the big perks of an FHA home loan are:

  • Lower Down Payments: They typically require a smaller down payment than conventional loans, sometimes as low as 3.5% of the home’s purchase price.
  • Lower Credit Score Requirements: They’re designed to help buyers with credit scores that might not qualify for conventional financing. This means, when conventional loans aren’t an option, you may still be able to get an FHA loan.

The first step is to connect with a lender who can help you explore your options and determine if you qualify.

2. Homeownership Assistance Programs

And if you need a more budget-friendly down payment, that’s not your only option. Did you know there are over 2,000 homeownership assistance programs available across the U.S. according to Down Payment Resource? And more than 75% of these programs are designed to help buyers with their down payment. Here’s a bit more information about why these could be such powerful tools for you:

  • Financial Support: The average benefit for buyers who qualify for down payment assistance is $17,000. And that’s not a small number.
  • Stackable Benefits: To make it even better, in some cases, you may be able to qualify for multiple programs at once, giving your down payment an even bigger boost.

Rob Chrane, CEO of Down Payment Resource confirms a little-known fact:

“Some of these programs can be layered. And so, in other words, you may not be limited to just one program.

If you want to learn more or see what you qualify for, be sure to lean on the pros. A trusted real estate agent and a lender can guide you through the process, explain the help that’s out there, and connect you with resources to make buying a home a reality.

Bottom Line

If you’re ready to stop wondering if buying a home is possible and start exploring solutions, connect with an expert agent and trusted lender. 

Continue Reading

Subscribe for Weekly

Real Estate Insights

Advertisement

Trending

Copyright © 2020-2025 Let's Talk Real Estate. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.