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Real Estate: It’s Still a Lack of Supply, Not a Lack of Demand

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One of the major questions real estate experts are asking today is whether prospective homebuyers still believe purchasing a home makes sense. Some claim rapidly rising home prices are impacting demand and, by extension, leading to the recent slowdown in sales activity.

However, demand isn’t the real issue. Instead, it’s the lack of supply (homes available for sale). An article from the Wall Street Journal shows this is true for new home construction:

Home builders have sold more homes than they can build. Now they are limiting their sales in an effort to catch up.”

The article quotes David Auld, CEO of D.R. Horton Inc. (the largest homebuilder by volume in the United States since 2002), explaining how they don’t have enough homes for the number of buyers coming into their models:

“Through our history, to have somebody walk into our models and to tell them, ‘We don’t have a house for you to buy today’, is something that is foreign to us.”

Danielle Hale, Chief Economist for realtor.com, also explains that, in the existing home sale market, the slowdown in sales was a supply challenge, not a lack of demand. Responding to a recent uptick in listings coming to market, she notes:

“. . . if these changing inventory dynamics continue, we could see a wave of real estate activity heading into the latter part of the year.”

Again, the buyers are there. We just need houses to sell to them.

If the slowdown in sales was the result of demand waning, we would start to see home prices beginning to moderate – but this isn’t the case. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist for First American, explains:

“There’s a lot of conversation around rising prices and falling quantity in the housing market, and there’s this concept, or this idea, that it’s a demand-side problem . . . . But, if demand were falling dramatically, we would actually see less price pressure, less home price growth.”

Instead, we’re seeing price appreciation accelerate throughout this year, as evidenced by the year-over-year percentage increases reported by CoreLogic:

  • January: 10%
  • February: 10.4%
  • March: 11.3%
  • April: 13%
  • May: 15.4%
  • June: 17.2%

(July numbers are not yet available)

There’s a shortage of listings, not buyers, and there are three very good reasons for purchasers to still be interested in buying a home this year.

1. Affordability isn’t the challenge some are claiming it to be.

Though home prices have risen dramatically over the last 18 months, mortgage rates remain near historic lows. Because of these near-record rates, monthly mortgage payments are affordable for most buyers.

While homes are less affordable than they were last year, when we adjust for inflation, we can see they’re also more affordable than they were in the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and much of the 2000s.

2. Owning is a better long-term decision than renting.

A recent study shows renting a home takes up a higher percentage of a household’s income than owning one. According to the analysis, here’s the percentage of income homebuyers and renters should expect to pay now versus at the end of the year.Real Estate: It’s Still a Lack of Supply, Not a Lack of Demand | Simplifying The MarketWhile the principal and interest of a monthly mortgage payment remain the same over the lifetime of the loan, rents increase almost every year.

3. Owners build their wealth. Renters build their landlord’s wealth.

Whether you’re a homeowner or an investor, real estate builds wealth through growing equity year-over-year. If you own, your household is gaining the benefit of that wealth accumulation. Fleming says:

The major financial advantage of homeownership is the accumulation of equity in the form of house price appreciation . . . . We have to take into account the fact that the shelter that you’re owning is an equity-generating or wealth-generating asset.”

Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, elaborates in a recent article:

“. . . once the home is purchased, appreciation helps build equity in the home, and becomes a benefit rather than a cost. When accounting for the appreciation benefit in our rent versus own analysis, it was cheaper to own in every one of the top 50 markets, including the two most expensive rental markets, San Francisco and San Jose, Calif.”

Today, that equity buildup is substantial. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports:

“The median sales price of single-family existing homes rose in 99% of measured metro areas in the second quarter of 2021 compared to one year ago, with double-digit price gains in 94% of markets.”

In 94% of markets, there was a greater than 10% increase in median price. That means if you bought a $400,000 home in one of those markets, your net worth increased by at least $40,000. If you rented, the landlord was the recipient of the wealth increase.

Bottom Line

For many reasons, housing demand is still extremely strong. What we need is more supply (house listings) to meet that demand.

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Affordability

The 3 Housing Market Questions Coming Up at Every Gathering This Season

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Whether it’s at a family gathering, your company party, or catching up with friends over the holidays, the housing market always finds its way into the conversation.

Here are the top three questions on a lot of people’s minds this season, and straightforward answers to help you feel more confident about the market.

1. “Will I even be able to find a home if I want to move?”

Yes, more than you could a year or two ago.

The number of homes for sale has been rising over the past few years. According to data from Realtor.com, there have been more than one million homes on the market for six straight months, something that hasn’t happened since 2019 (see graph below):

a graph of a number of homesThat means two things:

  • Buyers have more options.
  • Sellers have more places they can move to next.

Many homeowners who held off are realizing the shelves aren’t bare anymore. So, if you hit pause on your home search last year because nothing fit your needs, it may be worth another look. With more homes on the market now, you’re not competing for the same handful of listings like you were a couple of years ago.

And because there’s a bit more to choose from, homes aren’t disappearing the minute they hit the market. That gives buyers more space to breathe, more options to compare, and a little more time to make a confident decision.

2. “Will I ever be able to afford a house?”

Affordability is starting to improve. Finally.

It’s been a tough few years for buyers. But this year brought some much-needed good news:

  • Mortgage rates have been easing.
  • Home price growth has been moderating.

That adds up to a monthly mortgage payment that’s hundreds of dollars lower than it would have been just a few months ago (see graph below):

a graph of blue rectangular barsBuying still isn’t easy, but the numbers are starting to improve. For a lot of people, that means buying a home is becoming a more realistic goal again.

3. “Should I wait for prices to come down?”

A lot of people worry that the housing market is about to crash, but the data doesn’t point in that direction. Yes, the number of homes for sale has been rising, but it’s still nowhere near the level needed for prices to fall significantly on a national scale. On top of that, homeowners today have a lot of equity and are in a much stronger financial position than they were back in 2008.

Of course, every local market is a little different. Some areas are still seeing prices climb, while others that saw huge spikes a few years ago are leveling off or seeing small corrections. But overall, the national picture is clear: experts surveyed by Fannie Mae project home prices will keep rising, just at a slower, more normal pace (see graph below):

a graph of green rectanglesThat’s why waiting for a major price drop to get a deal isn’t a very strategic plan. History shows the same thing over and over: people who spend time in the market tend to build the most long-term wealth, not the people who try to time the market perfectly.

Bottom Line

Talk about the housing market can feel loud and confusing, especially when you’re hearing so many different takes. A trusted local agent can help you make sense of the data and understand your options. If you’re thinking about buying or selling, reach out to a local professional.

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Buying Tips

How To Find the Best Deal Possible on a Home Right Now

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Want to know how to find the best deal possible in today’s housing market? Here’s the secret. Focus on homes that have been sitting on the market for a while.

Because when a listing lingers, sellers tend to get more realistic – and, more willing to negotiate. And that’s where the savviest buyers are finding homes other buyers overlook.

The Opportunity: 1 in 5 Homes Has Had a Price Cut This Year

According to Realtor.com, about 1 in every 5 listings (20.2%) have dropped their asking price at least once. And while so many things in today’s housing market vary by region, that number is consistent throughout the country. That tells you one thing…

No matter where you live, there’s a chance to score a better deal. You just need to know where to look. And that’s where your agent comes in.

The Tactic: Target Homes That Have Been Sitting the Longest

Your agent can help you identify which homes have been on the market the longest. Those are the ones where you’re more likely to get a discount. That’s because the seller may be getting frustrated their house hasn’t sold yet, so they’re more willing to play ball.

And since a lot of buyers steer clear of homes that aren’t selling, you may be the only offer they get. So, you can lean in and push for a better deal. As Realtor.com explains:

“Less competition means fewer bidding wars and more power to negotiate the extras that add up: closing cost credits, home warranties, even repair concessions . . . these concessions can end up knocking thousands of dollars off the price of a home.”

And they’re not the only ones calling out the opportunity you have right now. Bankrate also says:

“During the quieter fall and winter months, when fewer prospective buyers are shopping, home sellers may be more willing to lower their prices, or offer concessions, to attract those prospective buyers who are still looking.

And the proof is in the data. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows a clear pattern: the longer a home stays on the market, the lower it tends to sell for compared to the original asking price.

a graph of green rectangular objectsSo, if you’re serious about getting as much as you can for your money, focusing on these listings could be your best strategy yet.

Even a Small Discount Can Go a Long Way

And while paying 94% of the original asking price may not sound like much of a deal, the savings add up. That’s roughly $24,000 in savings on the median priced home (see chart below):

Zillow sums it up best:

If you’re a buyer who is hoping to strike a deal, look for homes that have been on the market for a while and that may already have lowered prices to entice buyers. You may find a motivated seller who is more willing to negotiate.”

Bottom Line

If you want to find the best deal possible on a home right now, start by looking where others aren’t.

With 1 in 5 sellers cutting prices and many growing more flexible by the week, the homes that have been sitting a little longer could be your best opportunity to save.

Talk to a local agent about where to find them in your area.

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Downsize

Why So Many People Are Thankful They Bought a Home This Year

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Homebuyers are weighing their options right now, and they certainly have a lot on their minds. With everything going on in the job market, the economy, and more – there’s a lot to think about these days. And maybe that’s making you wonder if it really makes sense to buy a home right now.

But here’s what many recent buyers would tell you: even with all that, making a move is worth it.

And this is why they’re thankful they went ahead and took the plunge already. Life doesn’t wait for better market conditions. So, your decision shouldn’t be about trying to time the market perfectly. It should be about moving when the time is right for you and what you need – and it’s different for everyone.

The Real Reasons People Bought a Home

According to the latest report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), what’s really driving today’s moves is the desire for something better or something different. It’s a personal motivator or a change in what they need out of the home that pushed buyers to act this year (see chart below):

a graph of a number of peopleFor some, that meant trading an apartment for their very first house – a home they can finally make their own, where they can paint the walls, plant the garden, and build a future.

For others, it meant getting closer to the people who matter most. Living near family or friends isn’t just convenient, it changes your everyday life. Sunday dinners, quick visits, extra help when you need it – that kind of connection is priceless.

And for many buyers, it’s the peace of finding a home that finally fits. It’s finally having space to grow: a bigger kitchen for family dinners, or bedrooms where kids can decorate their own walls and carve out their own corners of the world.

Or, it’s about simplifying. Downsizing to something smaller, easier to maintain, and closer to what matters most can make everyday life feel lighter and less stressful.

What You Miss Out on If You Try To Time the Market

No matter the reason, these buyers all share something in common: they stopped waiting for perfect timing and focused on creating the life they wanted now. And if you asked them, odds are they’d say that decision is paying off every day.

That’s what makes a move meaningful. Not the market conditions, but the freedom and happiness that come from living in a home that truly fits. So, while headlines may keep everyone guessing, the people who’ve already made their move are sleeping better, living fuller, and enjoying homes that finally feel right.

Because once your home finally matches your life, everything else starts to fall into place. And that’s exactly how you deserve to feel. 

Bottom Line

The people who bought a home this year didn’t wait for perfect market conditions to line up. They acted on what they needed in their life. And they’re thankful they did.

If you’re feeling the pull toward something better, talk to an agent about your goals. Your next home could bring you more space, more connection, and more happiness than you think.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.