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Real Estate: It’s Still a Lack of Supply, Not a Lack of Demand

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One of the major questions real estate experts are asking today is whether prospective homebuyers still believe purchasing a home makes sense. Some claim rapidly rising home prices are impacting demand and, by extension, leading to the recent slowdown in sales activity.

However, demand isn’t the real issue. Instead, it’s the lack of supply (homes available for sale). An article from the Wall Street Journal shows this is true for new home construction:

Home builders have sold more homes than they can build. Now they are limiting their sales in an effort to catch up.”

The article quotes David Auld, CEO of D.R. Horton Inc. (the largest homebuilder by volume in the United States since 2002), explaining how they don’t have enough homes for the number of buyers coming into their models:

“Through our history, to have somebody walk into our models and to tell them, ‘We don’t have a house for you to buy today’, is something that is foreign to us.”

Danielle Hale, Chief Economist for realtor.com, also explains that, in the existing home sale market, the slowdown in sales was a supply challenge, not a lack of demand. Responding to a recent uptick in listings coming to market, she notes:

“. . . if these changing inventory dynamics continue, we could see a wave of real estate activity heading into the latter part of the year.”

Again, the buyers are there. We just need houses to sell to them.

If the slowdown in sales was the result of demand waning, we would start to see home prices beginning to moderate – but this isn’t the case. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist for First American, explains:

“There’s a lot of conversation around rising prices and falling quantity in the housing market, and there’s this concept, or this idea, that it’s a demand-side problem . . . . But, if demand were falling dramatically, we would actually see less price pressure, less home price growth.”

Instead, we’re seeing price appreciation accelerate throughout this year, as evidenced by the year-over-year percentage increases reported by CoreLogic:

  • January: 10%
  • February: 10.4%
  • March: 11.3%
  • April: 13%
  • May: 15.4%
  • June: 17.2%

(July numbers are not yet available)

There’s a shortage of listings, not buyers, and there are three very good reasons for purchasers to still be interested in buying a home this year.

1. Affordability isn’t the challenge some are claiming it to be.

Though home prices have risen dramatically over the last 18 months, mortgage rates remain near historic lows. Because of these near-record rates, monthly mortgage payments are affordable for most buyers.

While homes are less affordable than they were last year, when we adjust for inflation, we can see they’re also more affordable than they were in the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and much of the 2000s.

2. Owning is a better long-term decision than renting.

A recent study shows renting a home takes up a higher percentage of a household’s income than owning one. According to the analysis, here’s the percentage of income homebuyers and renters should expect to pay now versus at the end of the year.Real Estate: It’s Still a Lack of Supply, Not a Lack of Demand | Simplifying The MarketWhile the principal and interest of a monthly mortgage payment remain the same over the lifetime of the loan, rents increase almost every year.

3. Owners build their wealth. Renters build their landlord’s wealth.

Whether you’re a homeowner or an investor, real estate builds wealth through growing equity year-over-year. If you own, your household is gaining the benefit of that wealth accumulation. Fleming says:

The major financial advantage of homeownership is the accumulation of equity in the form of house price appreciation . . . . We have to take into account the fact that the shelter that you’re owning is an equity-generating or wealth-generating asset.”

Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, elaborates in a recent article:

“. . . once the home is purchased, appreciation helps build equity in the home, and becomes a benefit rather than a cost. When accounting for the appreciation benefit in our rent versus own analysis, it was cheaper to own in every one of the top 50 markets, including the two most expensive rental markets, San Francisco and San Jose, Calif.”

Today, that equity buildup is substantial. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports:

“The median sales price of single-family existing homes rose in 99% of measured metro areas in the second quarter of 2021 compared to one year ago, with double-digit price gains in 94% of markets.”

In 94% of markets, there was a greater than 10% increase in median price. That means if you bought a $400,000 home in one of those markets, your net worth increased by at least $40,000. If you rented, the landlord was the recipient of the wealth increase.

Bottom Line

For many reasons, housing demand is still extremely strong. What we need is more supply (house listings) to meet that demand.

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Buying Tips

Housing Market Forecasts for the Second Half of 2025

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Some Highlights

  • Are you wondering what to expect if you buy or sell a home in the second half of the year? Here’s what the expert forecasts tell you.
  • Mortgage rates are expected to come down slightly. There will be more homes available for sale. And as inventory rises, home price growth will moderate.
  • Want to know what this could mean for your plans? Connect with a local agent and talk through it together.

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Buying Tips

Don’t Let Student Loans Hold You Back from Homeownership

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Did you know? According to a recent study, 72% of people with student loans think their debt will delay their ability to buy a home. Maybe you’re one of them and you’re wondering:

  • Do you have to wait until you’ve paid off those loans before you can buy your first home?
  • Or is it possible you could still qualify for a home loan even with that debt?

Having questions like these is normal, especially when you’re thinking about making such a big purchase. But you should know, you may be putting your homeownership goals on the backburner unnecessarily.

Can You Qualify for a Home Loan if You Have Student Loans?

In the simplest sense, what you want to know is can you still buy your first home if you have student debt. Here’s what Yahoo Finance says:

” . . . student loans don’t have to get in your way when it comes to becoming a homeowner. With the right approach and an understanding of how debt impacts your home-buying options, buying a house when you have student loans is possible.

And the data backs this up. An annual report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), shows that 32% of first-time buyers had student loan debt (see graph below): 

a graph of a student loanWhile everyone’s situation is unique, your goal may be more doable than you realize. Plenty of people with student loans have been able to qualify for and buy a home. Let that reassure you that it is still possible, even as a first-time buyer. And just in case it’s helpful to know, the median student loan debt was $30,000. As an article from Chase says:

It’s important to note that student loans usually don’t affect your ability to qualify for a mortgage any differently than other types of debt you have on your credit report, such as credit card debt and auto loans.”

If your income is steady and your overall finances are solid, homeownership can still be within reach. So, having student loans doesn’t necessarily mean you have to wait to buy a home.

Bottom Line

Having student loans doesn’t mean buying a home is off the table. Before you count yourself out, talk to a lender to get a clearer picture of what you can afford and how close you are to taking the first step toward homeownership.

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Buying Tips

Why Buyers Are More Likely To Get Concessions Right Now

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Especially in areas where inventory is rising, both homebuilders and sellers are sweetening the deal for buyers with things like paid closing costs, mortgage rate buy-downs, and more. In the industry, it’s called a concession or an incentive.

What Are Concessions and Incentives?

When a seller or builder gives you something extra to help with your purchase, that’s called either a concession or an incentive

  • A concession is something a seller gives up or agrees to in order to reach a compromise and close a deal. 
  • An incentive, on the other hand, is a benefit a builder or seller advertises and offers up front to attract and encourage buyers.

Today, some of the most common ones are:

  • Help with closing costs
  • Mortgage rate buy-downs (to temporarily lower your rate)
  • Discounts or price reductions
  • Upgrades or appliances
  • Home warranties
  • Minor repairs

For buyers, getting any of these things thrown in can be a big deal – especially if you’re working with a tight budget. As the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says: 

“. . . they can help reduce the upfront costs associated with purchasing a home.”

Builders Are Making It Easier To Buy

It’s not just one builder willing to toss in a few extras. A lot of builders are using this tactic lately. As Zonda says:

“Incentives continued to be popular in March, offered by builders on 56% of to-be-built homes and 74% of quick move-in (QMI) homes, which can likely be occupied within 90 days.”

That’s because they don’t want to sit on inventory for too long. They want it to sell. And according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), one of the strategies many builders are using to keep that inventory moving (and not just sitting) is a price adjustment (see graph below): 

a graph of green rectangular barsAround 30% of builders lowered prices in each of the first four months of the year. While that also means most builders aren’t lowering prices, it also shows some are willing to negotiate with buyers to get a deal done.

This isn’t a sign of trouble in the market, it’s an opportunity for you. The fact that the majority of builders offer incentives and roughly 3 in 10 are lowering prices means if you’re looking at a newly built home, your builder will probably try to make it easier for you to close the deal. 

Existing Home Sellers Are Offering More, Too

More existing homes (one that someone has lived in before) have been hitting the market, too – which means sellers are facing more competition. That’s why over 44% of sellers of existing homes gave concessions to buyers in March (see graph below):

a graph showing the price of a stock marketAnd, if you look back at pre-pandemic years on this graph, you’ll see 44% is pretty much returning to normal. After years of sellers having all the power, the market is balancing again, which can work in your favor as a buyer.

But remember, concessions don’t always mean a big discount. While more sellers are compromising on price, that’s not always the lever they pull. Sometimes it’s as simple as the seller paying for repairs, leaving appliances behind for you, or helping with your closing costs.

And considering that home values have risen by more than 57% over the course of the past 5 years, small concessions are a great way for sellers to make a house more attractive to buyers while still making a profit.

Bottom Line

Whether you’re looking at a newly built home or something a little older, there’s a good chance you can benefit from concessions or incentives.

If a seller or builder offered you something extra, what would make the biggest difference to help you move forward?

Connect with an agent to talk about it and see if it’s realistic based on inventory and competition in your local market.

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The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, Landshark Mark, LLC and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.