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Real Estate: It’s Still a Lack of Supply, Not a Lack of Demand

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One of the major questions real estate experts are asking today is whether prospective homebuyers still believe purchasing a home makes sense. Some claim rapidly rising home prices are impacting demand and, by extension, leading to the recent slowdown in sales activity.

However, demand isn’t the real issue. Instead, it’s the lack of supply (homes available for sale). An article from the Wall Street Journal shows this is true for new home construction:

Home builders have sold more homes than they can build. Now they are limiting their sales in an effort to catch up.”

The article quotes David Auld, CEO of D.R. Horton Inc. (the largest homebuilder by volume in the United States since 2002), explaining how they don’t have enough homes for the number of buyers coming into their models:

“Through our history, to have somebody walk into our models and to tell them, ‘We don’t have a house for you to buy today’, is something that is foreign to us.”

Danielle Hale, Chief Economist for realtor.com, also explains that, in the existing home sale market, the slowdown in sales was a supply challenge, not a lack of demand. Responding to a recent uptick in listings coming to market, she notes:

“. . . if these changing inventory dynamics continue, we could see a wave of real estate activity heading into the latter part of the year.”

Again, the buyers are there. We just need houses to sell to them.

If the slowdown in sales was the result of demand waning, we would start to see home prices beginning to moderate – but this isn’t the case. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist for First American, explains:

“There’s a lot of conversation around rising prices and falling quantity in the housing market, and there’s this concept, or this idea, that it’s a demand-side problem . . . . But, if demand were falling dramatically, we would actually see less price pressure, less home price growth.”

Instead, we’re seeing price appreciation accelerate throughout this year, as evidenced by the year-over-year percentage increases reported by CoreLogic:

  • January: 10%
  • February: 10.4%
  • March: 11.3%
  • April: 13%
  • May: 15.4%
  • June: 17.2%

(July numbers are not yet available)

There’s a shortage of listings, not buyers, and there are three very good reasons for purchasers to still be interested in buying a home this year.

1. Affordability isn’t the challenge some are claiming it to be.

Though home prices have risen dramatically over the last 18 months, mortgage rates remain near historic lows. Because of these near-record rates, monthly mortgage payments are affordable for most buyers.

While homes are less affordable than they were last year, when we adjust for inflation, we can see they’re also more affordable than they were in the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and much of the 2000s.

2. Owning is a better long-term decision than renting.

A recent study shows renting a home takes up a higher percentage of a household’s income than owning one. According to the analysis, here’s the percentage of income homebuyers and renters should expect to pay now versus at the end of the year.Real Estate: It’s Still a Lack of Supply, Not a Lack of Demand | Simplifying The MarketWhile the principal and interest of a monthly mortgage payment remain the same over the lifetime of the loan, rents increase almost every year.

3. Owners build their wealth. Renters build their landlord’s wealth.

Whether you’re a homeowner or an investor, real estate builds wealth through growing equity year-over-year. If you own, your household is gaining the benefit of that wealth accumulation. Fleming says:

The major financial advantage of homeownership is the accumulation of equity in the form of house price appreciation . . . . We have to take into account the fact that the shelter that you’re owning is an equity-generating or wealth-generating asset.”

Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, elaborates in a recent article:

“. . . once the home is purchased, appreciation helps build equity in the home, and becomes a benefit rather than a cost. When accounting for the appreciation benefit in our rent versus own analysis, it was cheaper to own in every one of the top 50 markets, including the two most expensive rental markets, San Francisco and San Jose, Calif.”

Today, that equity buildup is substantial. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports:

“The median sales price of single-family existing homes rose in 99% of measured metro areas in the second quarter of 2021 compared to one year ago, with double-digit price gains in 94% of markets.”

In 94% of markets, there was a greater than 10% increase in median price. That means if you bought a $400,000 home in one of those markets, your net worth increased by at least $40,000. If you rented, the landlord was the recipient of the wealth increase.

Bottom Line

For many reasons, housing demand is still extremely strong. What we need is more supply (house listings) to meet that demand.

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Affordability

Why Buyers Shouldn’t Overlook a Fall Move

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You’ve been waiting for something to change before you buy. It just might not be the thing you expected…

While everyone’s paying attention to mortgage rates, only the savviest buyers know that the changing season can start tipping things in their favor. 

Because every fall, buyers tend to get more to choose from, better prices, and more room to negotiate. And that’s why Hannah Jones, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, says:

We always see that the best time to buy window usually falls in the early fall around October.

And that’s exactly why, if you’ve been waiting for a better moment to buy, this season may be worth a closer look – even with rates where they are.

1. There Are More Homes To Choose From

One of the biggest frustrations buyers have had over the past few years has been a lack of choices. Fall tends to help with that.

Based on seasonal trends, Realtor.com data shows there are typically more homes available for sale in September through November than during any other season of the year (see graph below):

a graph of a number of homesWhy does this happen? Homes that hit the market in spring and summer don’t all close right away. Some sit. New listings keep coming. And inventory builds as the year goes on.

By fall, you’re looking at the largest pool of available homes all year. That makes it easier to find one that works for your needs and your budget. And if anything, this should be more true this year. Rates that are higher for longer tend to help inventory grow even more.

More choices can mean fewer compromises. You’re more likely to find the right home, not just the one that happens to be available.

2. Asking Prices Start To Drop

Having more choices is great. But if every home is still priced too high, that only gets you so far. That’s where fall’s second advantage kicks in: asking prices start their seasonal decline. 

HousingWire data shows this trend over time (see graph below):

a graph of a number of blue and green barsIt works like this. Spring and early summer are when sellers feel the most confident because that’s when demand is typically strongest. So, many homeowners price their homes higher during those periods because of the uptick in demand.

But every year, like clockwork, that dynamic starts to change by fall. Buyer activity slows down as the weather cools off. So, sellers have to price a bit lower to try to draw buyers in. And that’s good for your bottom line.

3. More Sellers Are Willing To Negotiate

But fall doesn’t just bring more choices and lower asking prices. It also brings more sellers who are increasingly motivated to get a deal done. 

You can see it in the data. Most years, fall is when price cuts peak according to Realtor.com data (see graph below):

a graph of sales with numbers and text

While it’s not a big difference from summer, this fall you’ll have more negotiation power than you’d have if you wait until the first half of 2027. Here’s why. 

If a home is on the market in the fall, many sellers are eager to get it sold before the holidays. And since there are usually fewer buyers active in the fall, that often leads to another opportunity to snag a better deal. As the National Association of Realtors (NAR) explains:

“Less competition can lead to better deals. While homes are not selling as fast as during the summer, sellers may be more willing to negotiate.”

Even a small seller compromise here can make a meaningful difference for you. 

As an example, a 5% price drop on a $500,000 home is $25,000. That could mean you end up borrowing less, keeping more money in savings, having room in the budget for updates after you move in, or simply making the monthly payment feel more manageable.

Bottom Line

Of course, every market moves a little differently. But here’s what doesn’t change: Fall consistently buyers. More homes. Lower asking prices. Motivated sellers. 

If you’ve been waiting for your search to feel a little more doable, this season may be worth another look.

Have a quick conversation with a local agent about what’s happening in your market. That way you can find out whether this fall gives you opportunities you may not have had a few months ago.

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Affordability

Think New Homes Cost More? Not Right Now.

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Most people think a newly built home costs more than an existing one. But right now, that’s actually backwards. Newly built homes are more affordable than existing ones in a lot of markets. And that’s because builders are cutting prices and stacking on incentives to try to keep their inventory moving.

Here’s why that’s really important for any would-be homebuyer to know.

Newly Built Homes Are the Better Deal Right Now

According to the latest data from the Census and the National Association of Realtors (NAR), a newly built home now typically costs about $40,000 less than an existing one (see graph below):

a graph of a house costBuilders aren’t like homeowners who can wait for the right offer. Unsold homes cost them money as long as they sit empty. So, builders cut prices and add incentives to keep them moving. That trend has carried into August. NAHB’s latest numbers:

  • 35% of builders cut prices, with an average reduction of 6%. 

  • 63% offered incentives like covering closing costs or buying down your mortgage rate. 

And those incentives can make a real dent in what you pay upfront and every month after. Plus, since everything is new and many builders offer warranties, you could save on home maintenance costs too. And with affordability where it is, every dollar counts.

So, don’t cross new builds off your list just yet. Yes, you may think they cost more, but that’s not always the case. 

If you can get brand-new everything for less than buying an existing home, isn’t that at least worth looking into? 

Don’t Let the Builder Pick Your Teammate

But before you tour a single model home, there’s one thing worth figuring out first – who’s actually working for you once you walk through that door.

That friendly rep in the builder’s sales office works for the builder, not you. Their job is to protect the builder’s bottom line, not yours. Your own agent flips that. 

They know the local market, so they can tell you if the builder’s price and upgrades stack up against other options nearby. They’ll negotiate on your behalf, whether that’s a lower price, free upgrades, or a rate buydown. 

A good agent will also push for a home inspection. Builders won’t always bring it up, but it’s a step you shouldn’t skip, even on a new build. And your agent will be in your corner, so you know what you’re buying and get the best deal possible. 

Bottom Line

New homes may actually cost less than an existing home right now. And that’s opening up a window for you to get brand-new for less.

If you want a list of new home communities near you that are currently offering incentives or doing price cuts, reach out to a local agent. When you have your own agent, you’ll have someone in your corner helping you get the best deal possible.  

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Affordability

Thinking About Tapping into Your 401(k) To Buy a Home? Read This First.

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Lately, headlines have floated an eye-catching idea about tapping into your 401(k) to cover a down payment on a home. Maybe you’ve caught the buzz and wondered whether that money could get you into a home faster, especially with affordability as tough as it is. 

Here’s what you need to remember. Pulling from your retirement savings is a big decision, so take time to weigh all your options first and be sure to talk with a financial expert before you do anything.

Why Dipping into a 401(k) Can Be Tempting

Data from Empower shows many Americans have built up considerable retirement savings. The median 401(k) amount for anyone in their 40s-60s is six figures (see graph below):

a graph of green barsAnd when you’ve got a good chunk saved and your dream home is right there, reaching for it can feel like an easy call.

But dipping into your retirement savings to buy a home could cost you a penalty and set back your finances later on. That’s why it’s a good idea to explore other options for your down payment first. As Redfin says: 

If you’re struggling to save enough for a down payment, you may be wondering if tapping into your 401(k) is the right option. While it’s possible, doing so comes with significant risks, like early withdrawal penalties and lost investment growth.

Before you decide, have a financial advisor help you compare the upsides to the risks. Bankrate points to a few of each (see visual):

a screenshot of a computer screen

Other Options Worth Exploring First

Your 401(k) isn’t the only way to finance a home purchase. Redfin outlines a few other options to look into before you decide what to do:

  • Low and No-Down Payment Loans: FHA loans, for example, allow qualified buyers to put down as little as 3.5% of the home’s price, depending on their credit scores.

  • Down Payment Assistance Programs: Many national and local programs can help reduce what you pay toward your down payment or closing costs.

Make a Plan Before You Make a Move

No matter which route you take, talk with a financial expert first. The buyers who come out ahead build a solid plan with the right professionals before starting their journey to homeownership. As NerdWallet puts it:

Even if you’re convinced a 401(k) loan is the way to go, it’s important to understand the risks at the outset.

Bottom Line

Affordability is definitely a challenge, but that doesn’t mean tapping your 401(k) is your only way in if you want to buy.

If you’re considering using your 401(k) savings for a down payment, weigh all your options and talk with a trusted financial advisor before you make any decisions. They’ll help you make a plan to fit your goals and your budget. 

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.