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Real Estate: It’s Still a Lack of Supply, Not a Lack of Demand

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One of the major questions real estate experts are asking today is whether prospective homebuyers still believe purchasing a home makes sense. Some claim rapidly rising home prices are impacting demand and, by extension, leading to the recent slowdown in sales activity.

However, demand isn’t the real issue. Instead, it’s the lack of supply (homes available for sale). An article from the Wall Street Journal shows this is true for new home construction:

Home builders have sold more homes than they can build. Now they are limiting their sales in an effort to catch up.”

The article quotes David Auld, CEO of D.R. Horton Inc. (the largest homebuilder by volume in the United States since 2002), explaining how they don’t have enough homes for the number of buyers coming into their models:

“Through our history, to have somebody walk into our models and to tell them, ‘We don’t have a house for you to buy today’, is something that is foreign to us.”

Danielle Hale, Chief Economist for realtor.com, also explains that, in the existing home sale market, the slowdown in sales was a supply challenge, not a lack of demand. Responding to a recent uptick in listings coming to market, she notes:

“. . . if these changing inventory dynamics continue, we could see a wave of real estate activity heading into the latter part of the year.”

Again, the buyers are there. We just need houses to sell to them.

If the slowdown in sales was the result of demand waning, we would start to see home prices beginning to moderate – but this isn’t the case. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist for First American, explains:

“There’s a lot of conversation around rising prices and falling quantity in the housing market, and there’s this concept, or this idea, that it’s a demand-side problem . . . . But, if demand were falling dramatically, we would actually see less price pressure, less home price growth.”

Instead, we’re seeing price appreciation accelerate throughout this year, as evidenced by the year-over-year percentage increases reported by CoreLogic:

  • January: 10%
  • February: 10.4%
  • March: 11.3%
  • April: 13%
  • May: 15.4%
  • June: 17.2%

(July numbers are not yet available)

There’s a shortage of listings, not buyers, and there are three very good reasons for purchasers to still be interested in buying a home this year.

1. Affordability isn’t the challenge some are claiming it to be.

Though home prices have risen dramatically over the last 18 months, mortgage rates remain near historic lows. Because of these near-record rates, monthly mortgage payments are affordable for most buyers.

While homes are less affordable than they were last year, when we adjust for inflation, we can see they’re also more affordable than they were in the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and much of the 2000s.

2. Owning is a better long-term decision than renting.

A recent study shows renting a home takes up a higher percentage of a household’s income than owning one. According to the analysis, here’s the percentage of income homebuyers and renters should expect to pay now versus at the end of the year.Real Estate: It’s Still a Lack of Supply, Not a Lack of Demand | Simplifying The MarketWhile the principal and interest of a monthly mortgage payment remain the same over the lifetime of the loan, rents increase almost every year.

3. Owners build their wealth. Renters build their landlord’s wealth.

Whether you’re a homeowner or an investor, real estate builds wealth through growing equity year-over-year. If you own, your household is gaining the benefit of that wealth accumulation. Fleming says:

The major financial advantage of homeownership is the accumulation of equity in the form of house price appreciation . . . . We have to take into account the fact that the shelter that you’re owning is an equity-generating or wealth-generating asset.”

Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, elaborates in a recent article:

“. . . once the home is purchased, appreciation helps build equity in the home, and becomes a benefit rather than a cost. When accounting for the appreciation benefit in our rent versus own analysis, it was cheaper to own in every one of the top 50 markets, including the two most expensive rental markets, San Francisco and San Jose, Calif.”

Today, that equity buildup is substantial. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports:

“The median sales price of single-family existing homes rose in 99% of measured metro areas in the second quarter of 2021 compared to one year ago, with double-digit price gains in 94% of markets.”

In 94% of markets, there was a greater than 10% increase in median price. That means if you bought a $400,000 home in one of those markets, your net worth increased by at least $40,000. If you rented, the landlord was the recipient of the wealth increase.

Bottom Line

For many reasons, housing demand is still extremely strong. What we need is more supply (house listings) to meet that demand.

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For Buyers

Is It Better To Buy Now or Wait for Lower Mortgage Rates? Here’s the Tradeoff

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Mortgage rates are still a hot topic – and for good reason. After the most recent jobs report came out weaker than expected, the bond market reacted almost instantly. And, as a result, in early August mortgage rates dropped to their lowest point so far this year (6.55%).

While that may not sound like a big deal, pretty much every buyer has been waiting for rates to fall. And even a seemingly small drop like this reignites the hope we’re finally going to see rates trending down. But what’s realistic to expect?

According to the latest forecasts, rates aren’t expected to fall dramatically anytime soon. Most experts project they’ll stay somewhere in the mid-to-low 6% range through 2026 (see graph below):

a graph with numbers and linesIn other words, no big changes are expected. But small shifts, like the one we just saw, are still likely. 

Each time there’s changing economic news, there’s a chance mortgage rates will react. And with so many reports coming out this week, we’ll get a better feeling of where the economy and inflation are headed – and how rates will respond.

What Rate Would Get Buyers Moving Again?

The magic number most buyers seem to be watching for is 6%. And it’s not just a psychological benchmark; it has real impact. A recent report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says if rates reach 6%:

  • 5.5 million more households could afford the median-priced home
  • And roughly 550,000 people would buy a home within 12 to 18 months

That’s a lot of pent-up demand just waiting for the green light. And if you look back at the graph above, you’ll see Fannie Mae thinks we’ll hit that threshold next year. That raises an important question: Does it really make sense to wait for lower rates?

Because here’s the tradeoff. If you’re waiting for 6%, you need to realize a lot of other people are too. And when rates do continue to inch down and more buyers jump into the market all at once, you could face more competition, fewer choices, and higher home prices. NAR explains it like this:

“Home buyers wishing for lower mortgage interest rates may eventually get their wish, but for now, they’ll have to decide whether it’s better to wait or jump into the market.”

Consider the unique window that exists right now:

  • Inventory is up = more choices
  • Price growth has slowed down = more realistic pricing
  • You may have more room to negotiate = you could get a better deal

These are all opportunities that will go away if rates fall and demand surges. That’s why NAR says:

“Buyers who are holding out for lower mortgage rates may be missing a key opening in the market.”

Bottom Line

Rates aren’t expected to hit 6% this year. But when they do, you’ll have to deal with more competition as other buyers jump back in. If you want less pressure and more negotiating power, that opportunity is already here – and it might not last for long. It all depends on what happens in the economy next.

Talk to a local agent about what’s happening in your area and whether it makes sense to make your move now, before everyone else does.

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Affordability

Are These Myths About Buying a Newly Built Home Holding You Back?

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If you’ve been skipping over newly built homes in your search, you might be doing so based on outdated assumptions. Let’s clear up a few of the most common myths, so you don’t miss out on a solid opportunity.

Myth 1: New Homes Are More Expensive

It’s easy to assume a new build will cost more than an existing home, but that’s not necessarily true, especially right now.

Data from Census and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows the median price of a newly built home today is actually lower than a home that’s been lived in already (an existing home):

a graph of sales and pricesSo, why’s this happening? As Heather Long, Chief Economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, explains:

This largely reflects two trends: New homes are getting smaller on average, and builders are doing more price cuts.”

If you’ve ruled out new construction based on price alone, it’s time to take another look. Talk to your local real estate agent to see what’s available (and at what price points).

Myth 2: Builders Don’t Negotiate

Many buyers assume builders aren’t going to play ball when it comes time to negotiate. But that’s just not the case. A number of builders are sitting on finished inventory they want to sell quickly. And that makes them more open to compromising. Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explains a builder:

“. . . would love to sell you the home because they’re not living in it. It costs money not to sell the home. And many of the public home builders have said in their earnings calls that they are not going to be pulling back on incentives, especially the mortgage rate buydown . . .” 

That means you may find builders more flexible than individual sellers, and more motivated to toss in incentives to get the deal done. According to Zonda, 75% of new home communities offered incentives on new homes considered quick move-ins in June.

Myth 3: They Don’t Build Them Like They Used To

Some people think newer homes lack the craftsmanship of older ones. But here’s a reality check. Quality can vary in any era. And using a reputable builder matters more than the build date.

According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), a good way to gauge quality is by talking to buyers who have purchased from that builder recently. In an article, NAHB explains:

“Any high-quality builder should be ready to provide you with the names and phone numbers of satisfied customers. If they cannot, consider that a red flag and walk away.

The article suggests asking those buyers questions like:

  • Did the builder meet their expectations?
  • Would you use that same builder, if you were to do it again?

But you can also ask your agent about the builder’s reputation. Generally, agents know about the builders active in your area and may even have experience with past clients who have bought a home in one of that builder’s communities.

Myth 4: You Don’t Need Your Own Real Estate Agent

This might be the biggest myth of all. The truth is, when you buy a brand-new home, using your own agent is even more important. Builder contracts have different fine print, and you’ll want a pro on your side who can really explain what you’re signing and advocate for your best interests.

These stats seem to prove that’s the case. In a Realtor.com survey, buyers who purchased a newly built home rated their agents far more helpful than the builder (or the builder’s representative) during the process (see visual below):a screenshot of a graph

Bottom Line

Don’t let misconceptions keep you from exploring one of the most promising options in today’s housing market.

Whether you’re curious about what’s being built nearby or wondering if a new home fits your budget, connect with a local agent. You might be surprised by what’s out there.

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For Buyers

A Second Home Might Be the Missing Piece in Your Retirement Plan

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Are you wondering if you’re on track to retire someday?

According to Intuit, 69% of people say today’s financial environment makes it tough to plan for the future, and 68% aren’t sure they’ll ever be able to retire. That’s why many people are exploring new ways to build stability and long-term income.

And that’s where real estate comes in.

Why Real Estate? Here’s What It Can Do for You

If you’re able to make the numbers work, buying a second home can be a powerful tool for your future retirement. It could help you:

  • Build wealth over time: As home prices rise through the years, your second home should grow in value and increase your net worth.
  • Generate extra income: Renting the home could bring in some extra income you can add to your existing retirement savings. Just remember, some of the rent coming in will need to be used to pay that mortgage and maintain that house. 
  • Profit in the future: You may decide to sell the second home down the road and use the profit from that sale to give your retirement funds a boost.
  • Diversify your financial assets: Real estate offers a tangible asset that can help reduce your dependence on just stocks or savings, making your overall financial picture more stable.

Most Second Homeowners Aren’t Big Investors

And if you’re thinking: wait, owning multiple homes is only for big investors – data shows that’s not necessarily true. Many homeowners who buy an additional property aren’t the big investors you hear so much about. They’re people like your neighbors.

In fact, data from BatchData and CJ Patrick Company shows 85% of people who own more than one property have just 1 to 5 homes (see graph below):

a screenshot of a graphThat means most who own multiple homes are people (not large investors) who’ve bought an extra home to rent out or hold onto for later.

Why Now Might Be the Right Time

And right now, the door may be opening for buyers like you. According to Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com:

“. . . the balance of power in the housing market keeps shifting in favor of homebuyers. . . A confluence of factors—including more homes for sale, rising price cuts, and slower-moving inventory—is giving buyers more leverage than they’ve had in years . . .

If you live in an area where home prices are expected to rise, buying another property now and selling it later could help fund your future. Or you could rent it out and earn income now.

Start with Just a Few Trusted Pros

If this idea sounds interesting, the most important first step is to connect with a few key people who can guide you through the process:

  • A local real estate agent who understands the market
  • A lender who specializes in second home or investment loans

Surrounding yourself with the right pros can help you make confident decisions from day one.

Bottom Line

Talk with a local real estate agent about what’s possible. They’d love to help you explore whether owning a second home could bring you more security and peace of mind for the road ahead.

If a second home could help you retire earlier or with more freedom, would you want to take a closer look?

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.