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Real Estate: It’s Still a Lack of Supply, Not a Lack of Demand

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One of the major questions real estate experts are asking today is whether prospective homebuyers still believe purchasing a home makes sense. Some claim rapidly rising home prices are impacting demand and, by extension, leading to the recent slowdown in sales activity.

However, demand isn’t the real issue. Instead, it’s the lack of supply (homes available for sale). An article from the Wall Street Journal shows this is true for new home construction:

Home builders have sold more homes than they can build. Now they are limiting their sales in an effort to catch up.”

The article quotes David Auld, CEO of D.R. Horton Inc. (the largest homebuilder by volume in the United States since 2002), explaining how they don’t have enough homes for the number of buyers coming into their models:

“Through our history, to have somebody walk into our models and to tell them, ‘We don’t have a house for you to buy today’, is something that is foreign to us.”

Danielle Hale, Chief Economist for realtor.com, also explains that, in the existing home sale market, the slowdown in sales was a supply challenge, not a lack of demand. Responding to a recent uptick in listings coming to market, she notes:

“. . . if these changing inventory dynamics continue, we could see a wave of real estate activity heading into the latter part of the year.”

Again, the buyers are there. We just need houses to sell to them.

If the slowdown in sales was the result of demand waning, we would start to see home prices beginning to moderate – but this isn’t the case. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist for First American, explains:

“There’s a lot of conversation around rising prices and falling quantity in the housing market, and there’s this concept, or this idea, that it’s a demand-side problem . . . . But, if demand were falling dramatically, we would actually see less price pressure, less home price growth.”

Instead, we’re seeing price appreciation accelerate throughout this year, as evidenced by the year-over-year percentage increases reported by CoreLogic:

  • January: 10%
  • February: 10.4%
  • March: 11.3%
  • April: 13%
  • May: 15.4%
  • June: 17.2%

(July numbers are not yet available)

There’s a shortage of listings, not buyers, and there are three very good reasons for purchasers to still be interested in buying a home this year.

1. Affordability isn’t the challenge some are claiming it to be.

Though home prices have risen dramatically over the last 18 months, mortgage rates remain near historic lows. Because of these near-record rates, monthly mortgage payments are affordable for most buyers.

While homes are less affordable than they were last year, when we adjust for inflation, we can see they’re also more affordable than they were in the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and much of the 2000s.

2. Owning is a better long-term decision than renting.

A recent study shows renting a home takes up a higher percentage of a household’s income than owning one. According to the analysis, here’s the percentage of income homebuyers and renters should expect to pay now versus at the end of the year.Real Estate: It’s Still a Lack of Supply, Not a Lack of Demand | Simplifying The MarketWhile the principal and interest of a monthly mortgage payment remain the same over the lifetime of the loan, rents increase almost every year.

3. Owners build their wealth. Renters build their landlord’s wealth.

Whether you’re a homeowner or an investor, real estate builds wealth through growing equity year-over-year. If you own, your household is gaining the benefit of that wealth accumulation. Fleming says:

The major financial advantage of homeownership is the accumulation of equity in the form of house price appreciation . . . . We have to take into account the fact that the shelter that you’re owning is an equity-generating or wealth-generating asset.”

Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, elaborates in a recent article:

“. . . once the home is purchased, appreciation helps build equity in the home, and becomes a benefit rather than a cost. When accounting for the appreciation benefit in our rent versus own analysis, it was cheaper to own in every one of the top 50 markets, including the two most expensive rental markets, San Francisco and San Jose, Calif.”

Today, that equity buildup is substantial. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports:

“The median sales price of single-family existing homes rose in 99% of measured metro areas in the second quarter of 2021 compared to one year ago, with double-digit price gains in 94% of markets.”

In 94% of markets, there was a greater than 10% increase in median price. That means if you bought a $400,000 home in one of those markets, your net worth increased by at least $40,000. If you rented, the landlord was the recipient of the wealth increase.

Bottom Line

For many reasons, housing demand is still extremely strong. What we need is more supply (house listings) to meet that demand.

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Buying Tips

The Return to Urban Living — Why More People Are Moving Back to Cities

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After years of suburban and rural migration during the pandemic, cities have been making a comeback in the past couple of years. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the percentage of people moving to cities has risen to 16%. While that may not sound like a big number to you, it is the highest level in a decade – and that’s a big deal (see graph below):

And data from BrightMLS seems to confirm this trend. In a recent survey, 1 in 5 (20.6%) people looking to buy say they want to live in the city.

So, what’s behind this ongoing shift back to urban living? Let’s break down the top three reasons why people are trading quiet suburbs for bustling cityscapes. You may find out you want to sell your house with a big yard and move to an urban oasis, too.

1. Vibrant Culture

Cities have always been hubs of culture, entertainment, and community. They’re packed with energy and there are always endless things to do. During the pandemic, a lot of that excitement was put on pause. But the last couple of years? Cities are buzzing again.

There’s nothing quite like being able to walk to your favorite coffee shop, pop into a local gallery, see a live concert or show, or grab a last-minute dinner at a great spot down the street. It’s a lifestyle that’s easy to love — and one a lot of people want today.

2. Being Close to Work

Remote work is still a thing, but most companies are moving to hybrid schedules or even bringing employees back to the office. That makes living closer to work way more convenient. Whether it’s cutting down a long commute or having more chances to network in person, being close to the office is a big plus — especially for industries that thrive on face-to-face connections.

3. Easy Access To Everything You Need or Want

One of the best things about living in a city? The convenience. Public transportation, top-notch healthcare, and so much more are all within easy reach. For a lot of people, having everything nearby just makes life easier — and it’s a big reason they’re drawn to urban living.

What To Do If You Want To Move To the City

Let’s say you moved to a suburban area during the pandemic and you’re missing the excitement of living right off city streets. You’re probably thinking: how can I afford to move back into the heart of things with how mortgage rates and home prices are? Here’s how other people are doing it.

According to data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), home values have gone up by 57.4% in the last 5 years alone. And that means your house is probably going to sell for more than you bought it for.

If you already own a home in the suburbs, you may be able to sell that house and use the equity you get back to fuel your move. Sure, you may have to compromise and be happy with a smaller, urban space – but if it’s the lifestyle you’re craving – that trade-off is going to be worth it. To find out what’s possible and what it costs to live in an urban area, lean on a local real estate professional.

Bottom Line

The urban renaissance is real. Whether it’s the vibrant culture, being close to work, or having easy access to everything you need, cities are once again calling — and people are answering.

What’s your favorite thing about life in the city?

Connect with an agent to find a home you love where all the hustle and bustle makes life a bit more exciting.

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First-Time Buyers

Why You’ll Love Owning a Home

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a screenshot of a cellphone

Some Highlights

  • Owning a home comes with many benefits, both non-financial and financial.
  • From the sense of accomplishment and freedom of expression, to growing your net worth, it’s easy to fall in love with homeownership.
  • What’s the top reason you’d love to own a home? Connect with an agent to come up with a plan that makes it possible.

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Buying Tips

Breaking Into the Market: Smart Moves for First-Time Buyers

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If you’re like a lot of aspiring homebuyers, there’s a major hurdle standing in your way — the cost of living. From groceries to gas, eggs, and just about everything else, prices have gone up. And that rings true for home prices, too.

But even when everything feels expensive, there are still ways to make homeownership more than an item on your wish list. You may just need to think about where you plan to buy a bit differently.

Think of Your First Home as a Stepping Stone 

One of the biggest misconceptions among buyers is that their first home has to be their forever home – or that it has to check all the boxes of what they want right out of the gate. In reality, it’s just a starting point.

Once you own a home, you start to build equity, which grows over time as home prices rise. Down the road, if you want to move — whether to a larger space, a better location, or both — the equity you’ve gained can help you do just that.

So rather than waiting until you can afford your dream home in your ideal neighborhood, consider starting with something that works for now.

Expand Your Search To Find More Affordable Options 

If high home prices in your favorite area are holding you back, it’s time to cast a wider net. By keeping an open mind and being flexible with location, you may be surprised at what’s possible within your budget. Many buyers find success by looking in surrounding areas – and some even choose to move out of state.

According to a report from Realtor.com, these are some of the best markets for first-time homebuyers this year (see chart below):

Of course, moving to a different state isn’t for everyone – and isn’t a necessity. The right agent can help you find more cost-effective options wherever you are.

If you want to stay local, looking just outside your preferred neighborhood could help you find something you can afford that’s still pretty close to your favorite restaurants, shops, and activities. Sometimes, moving as little as 10 minutes away makes a big difference.

And the best way to see what’s available is to work with a real estate agent who understands the local market and can help you identify hidden gems nearby. An agent can point you to communities you may not have considered that have lower price tags now and are steadily gaining value and appeal. That way you can buy your first home and be set up to gain equity through the years.

Bottom Line

Today’s cost of living is a challenge for many homebuyers. But by exploring different areas and working with a knowledgeable agent, you can take that first step toward owning a home — and building equity for your future. 

How far outside of your area would you look to make homeownership happen? Connect with a local agent to chat through your options. 

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The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.