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For Buyers

Real Estate: It’s Still a Lack of Supply, Not a Lack of Demand

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One of the major questions real estate experts are asking today is whether prospective homebuyers still believe purchasing a home makes sense. Some claim rapidly rising home prices are impacting demand and, by extension, leading to the recent slowdown in sales activity.

However, demand isn’t the real issue. Instead, it’s the lack of supply (homes available for sale). An article from the Wall Street Journal shows this is true for new home construction:

Home builders have sold more homes than they can build. Now they are limiting their sales in an effort to catch up.”

The article quotes David Auld, CEO of D.R. Horton Inc. (the largest homebuilder by volume in the United States since 2002), explaining how they don’t have enough homes for the number of buyers coming into their models:

“Through our history, to have somebody walk into our models and to tell them, ‘We don’t have a house for you to buy today’, is something that is foreign to us.”

Danielle Hale, Chief Economist for realtor.com, also explains that, in the existing home sale market, the slowdown in sales was a supply challenge, not a lack of demand. Responding to a recent uptick in listings coming to market, she notes:

“. . . if these changing inventory dynamics continue, we could see a wave of real estate activity heading into the latter part of the year.”

Again, the buyers are there. We just need houses to sell to them.

If the slowdown in sales was the result of demand waning, we would start to see home prices beginning to moderate – but this isn’t the case. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist for First American, explains:

“There’s a lot of conversation around rising prices and falling quantity in the housing market, and there’s this concept, or this idea, that it’s a demand-side problem . . . . But, if demand were falling dramatically, we would actually see less price pressure, less home price growth.”

Instead, we’re seeing price appreciation accelerate throughout this year, as evidenced by the year-over-year percentage increases reported by CoreLogic:

  • January: 10%
  • February: 10.4%
  • March: 11.3%
  • April: 13%
  • May: 15.4%
  • June: 17.2%

(July numbers are not yet available)

There’s a shortage of listings, not buyers, and there are three very good reasons for purchasers to still be interested in buying a home this year.

1. Affordability isn’t the challenge some are claiming it to be.

Though home prices have risen dramatically over the last 18 months, mortgage rates remain near historic lows. Because of these near-record rates, monthly mortgage payments are affordable for most buyers.

While homes are less affordable than they were last year, when we adjust for inflation, we can see they’re also more affordable than they were in the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and much of the 2000s.

2. Owning is a better long-term decision than renting.

A recent study shows renting a home takes up a higher percentage of a household’s income than owning one. According to the analysis, here’s the percentage of income homebuyers and renters should expect to pay now versus at the end of the year.Real Estate: It’s Still a Lack of Supply, Not a Lack of Demand | Simplifying The MarketWhile the principal and interest of a monthly mortgage payment remain the same over the lifetime of the loan, rents increase almost every year.

3. Owners build their wealth. Renters build their landlord’s wealth.

Whether you’re a homeowner or an investor, real estate builds wealth through growing equity year-over-year. If you own, your household is gaining the benefit of that wealth accumulation. Fleming says:

The major financial advantage of homeownership is the accumulation of equity in the form of house price appreciation . . . . We have to take into account the fact that the shelter that you’re owning is an equity-generating or wealth-generating asset.”

Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, elaborates in a recent article:

“. . . once the home is purchased, appreciation helps build equity in the home, and becomes a benefit rather than a cost. When accounting for the appreciation benefit in our rent versus own analysis, it was cheaper to own in every one of the top 50 markets, including the two most expensive rental markets, San Francisco and San Jose, Calif.”

Today, that equity buildup is substantial. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports:

“The median sales price of single-family existing homes rose in 99% of measured metro areas in the second quarter of 2021 compared to one year ago, with double-digit price gains in 94% of markets.”

In 94% of markets, there was a greater than 10% increase in median price. That means if you bought a $400,000 home in one of those markets, your net worth increased by at least $40,000. If you rented, the landlord was the recipient of the wealth increase.

Bottom Line

For many reasons, housing demand is still extremely strong. What we need is more supply (house listings) to meet that demand.

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Affordability

Why Buying a Home Still Pays Off in the Long Run

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Renting can feel much less expensive and much simpler than buying a home, especially right now. No repairs, no property taxes, no worrying about mortgage rates – you just pay the bill and move on with your life.

But here’s the part people don’t talk about enough: renting doesn’t help you build your financial future. Meanwhile, homeowners grow their net worth just by owning a home.

So, if you’ve been wondering whether buying is still worth it, the long-term math is clearer than you might think.

Renting vs. Owning: How the Costs Really Compare

Let’s break down one of the key differences between renting and buying. When you rent, your payment goes to your landlord, and then it’s gone. When you own, part of your payment comes back to you in the form of equity (the wealth you build as the value of your home increases, and you pay down your home loan).

So, while renting may seem more affordable now, you have to remember it comes at a long-term cost: you’re not building your wealth. And it turns out, that’s a bigger miss than you may expect.

First American recently analyzed the long-term financial impact of renting versus owning a home. They compared mortgage payments, property tax, insurance, repairs, and maintenance against the equity gained through home price appreciation and paying down the mortgage. And they did that during several different time frames to see if it tells a consistent story:

  • 2006: the start of the housing bubble
  • 2015: 10 years ago
  • 2019: just before the pandemic (the last normal years in the market)
  • 2022: when mortgage rates jumped

In each time frame, two things were true: renters ended up losing money over time. And homeowners gained it.

Here’s some data so you can see this play out. Each color represents one of the key time frames. The solid lines show the buyer’s investment over time and how their net worth actually grew the longer they lived in their home. The dashed line represents the renter’s investment. In the end, they sank more and more cash into renting without gaining any financial benefit.

a graph of a graph showing the impact of owning vs renters lossThe takeaway is simple: time in a home builds wealth. Time renting doesn’t.

Basically, homeowners come out ahead. And the analysis shows that’s even after you factor in the other expenses that come with homeownership, like insurance, repairs, and property taxes. And that’s the case for every time frame First American looked into.

On the flip side, renters spent money on their rent, but didn’t gain any long-term financial benefit. That’s true no matter what window of time you look at in the study.

Now, that doesn’t mean buying always beats renting in the short term. But the longer you own, the wider the wealth gap becomes.

Affordability Is Starting To Improve

You might still be thinking, “Okay, but buying feels out of reach for me right now.” Fair.

The past few years haven’t been easy for buyers. But things are starting to shift. Mortgage rates have come down this year, home prices are softening, and incomes have been rising. And according to Zillow, typical monthly payments have gotten a little easier compared to this time last year. Not by a lot, but enough to make a difference.

No, buying isn’t suddenly easy. But it is easier than it was just a few months ago. And in the long run, history shows it’s worth it. 

Bottom Line

Renting may feel less expensive today, but owning is what builds real wealth over time. And with affordability starting to improve, the path to homeownership may be opening up more than you think.

If you’re curious what buying could look like for you, connect with a local real estate who can help you plan your next move, pressure-free.

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Buying Tips

Most Experts Are Not Worried About a Recession

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Homebuyers are watching the economy closely, and for good reason. Buying a home is one of the biggest purchases most people ever make. And some recession talk in the media has made a lot of would-be buyers second guess their plans.

In the latest LendingTree survey, almost 2 in 3 Americans said they think a recession is coming. And 74% of respondents say that’s having an impact on their financial decisions.

But here’s the good news: the experts aren’t nearly as concerned.

Most Americans Expect a Recession, But Most Experts Don’t

According to an October report from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), only 1 in 3 experts surveyed say we may be headed for a recession sometime in the next 12 months (see graph below):

a blue and grey pie chartIf the expert economists aren’t super worried, should you be? We’re not in a recession right now. And there’s no guarantee we’re heading into one.

What we do have is uncertainty – and the best way to handle that is by leaning on facts, not fear. You can do that by making sure you have the information you need to make an informed decision.

Tips for Buying a Home During Periods of Economic Uncertainty

Here’s the best advice anyone can give right now. While it’s important to keep an eye on what’s happening in the economy, that shouldn’t necessarily overshadow your real-life needs. Economic shifts come and go, but the reasons people buy homes rarely change. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, explains:

“Well-prepared buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines are likely motivated by personal and lifestyle needs like growing families, new jobs, or retirement. And these considerations can outweigh short-term economic uncertainties . . . ”

Timing your move around real life (not the news cycle) is what matters most.

But here’s the key. If you’re going to buy a home right now, job stability really matters. You need to feel confident in your income and know you can comfortably manage your mortgage payments, even if your situation or the economy shift.

If your job is secure and you’ve built a cushion of savings, experts say you don’t necessarily need to delay. Just keep these tips from the economists at Redfin in mind:

  • Set a budget and stick to it: Don’t overextend. Make sure your payments are affordable and your savings can cover any surprises. This includes factoring in costs likely to rise, like home insurance and taxes.
  • Negotiate: There are more homes for sale right now, and other buyers may pull back because of their own fears. That gives you more negotiating power when working with sellers. Use it to get the best deal possible.
  • Be strategic about payments and mortgage rates: Talk to lenders about what payment you can afford and the rate you can qualify for today, as well as your options if rates go down later on.
  • Consider selling before you buy: If you already own a home, selling first can reduce the financial pressure and help solidify your budget for your next home.

But nothing replaces the value of having a trusted team around you, especially right now. As Bankrate says:

“Buying a home during a recession can sometimes be a good idea – but only for people who are lucky enough to remain financially stable . . . Be sure to enlist the help of an experienced local real estate agent. Not only do agents know their markets well, they will also work to get you the best deal in any given situation, including a recession.”

Bottom Line

Most Americans think a recession is coming. But most experts don’t.

So, you don’t necessarily have to put your moving plans on hold. If your finances are solid, your job is stable, and you have a real need to move, you can still make this happen. You just need the right team of pros by your side. 

What’s holding you back from making your next move? Connect with a local agent and lender to talk it over.

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For Buyers

The Housing Market Is Turning a Corner Going into 2026

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After several years of high mortgage rates and hesitation from buyers, momentum is quietly building beneath the surface of the housing market. Sellers are reappearing. Buyers are re-engaging. And for the first time in what feels like forever, there’s movement happening again.

No, it’s not a surge. But it is a shift – and it’s one that could set the stage for a stronger year in 2026.

So, what’s driving the comeback? Here are three big trends that are slowly breathing life back into the housing market right now.

1. Mortgage Rates Have Been Coming Down

Mortgage rates are always going to have their ups and downs – that’s just how rates work. Especially with the general economic uncertainty right now, some volatility is to be expected. But, if you zoom out, it’s the larger trend that really matters most.

And overall, rates have been trending down for most of this year (see graph below):

a graph with a line and a green lineAnd in just the last few months, we’ve seen the best rates of 2025. According to Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac:

“On a median-priced home, this could allow a homebuyer to save thousands annually compared to earlier this year, showing that affordability is slowly improving.

Here’s why that matters for you. This shift changes what you can actually afford. It means lower borrowing costs and more buying power. Take this as an example.

Data from Redfin shows a buyer with a $3,000 monthly budget can now afford roughly $25,000 more home than they could one year ago. That’s a big deal. And it’s just one of the reasons why activity is picking up.

2. More Homeowners Are Ready To Sell

For a while, many homeowners stayed put because they didn’t want to give up their low mortgage rate. That “lock-in effect” kept inventory tight. And while plenty of homeowners are still staying where they are today, the number of rate-locked homeowners is starting to ease as rates come down. Life changes are becoming a bigger part of what’s driving more people to move, and that’s opening up more inventory.

Data from Realtor.com shows just how much the number of homes for sale has grown. And the really interesting part is that the market is approaching levels that haven’t been seen for the past six years (see the blue on the graph below):

a graph of growth in the yearThat return to more normal inventory levels is a really good thing. It gives buyers more options than they’ve had in years. And it’s helping to bring the market closer to balance.

3. More Buyers Are Re-Entering the Market

And it’s not just sellers making moves. With more options and slightly better affordability, buyers are getting back in the game, too. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reports purchase applications are up compared to last year, a clear signal that demand is building again (see graph below):

a graph of blue and orange barsAnd experts think this momentum will continue. Economists from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) all forecast moderate sales growth going into 2026.

Now, this recovery won’t happen overnight. It’s not a flood of activity. But it is the start of steady improvement going into 2026. And that’s something a lot of people have been waiting for.

Bottom Line

After several slower-than-normal years, the market is finally starting to turn a corner. Declining mortgage rates, more listings, and growing buyer activity all point to a market gaining real traction.

Connect with a local real estate agent about what’s changing and how you can make the most of it in 2026.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.