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Real Estate: It’s Still a Lack of Supply, Not a Lack of Demand

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One of the major questions real estate experts are asking today is whether prospective homebuyers still believe purchasing a home makes sense. Some claim rapidly rising home prices are impacting demand and, by extension, leading to the recent slowdown in sales activity.

However, demand isn’t the real issue. Instead, it’s the lack of supply (homes available for sale). An article from the Wall Street Journal shows this is true for new home construction:

Home builders have sold more homes than they can build. Now they are limiting their sales in an effort to catch up.”

The article quotes David Auld, CEO of D.R. Horton Inc. (the largest homebuilder by volume in the United States since 2002), explaining how they don’t have enough homes for the number of buyers coming into their models:

“Through our history, to have somebody walk into our models and to tell them, ‘We don’t have a house for you to buy today’, is something that is foreign to us.”

Danielle Hale, Chief Economist for realtor.com, also explains that, in the existing home sale market, the slowdown in sales was a supply challenge, not a lack of demand. Responding to a recent uptick in listings coming to market, she notes:

“. . . if these changing inventory dynamics continue, we could see a wave of real estate activity heading into the latter part of the year.”

Again, the buyers are there. We just need houses to sell to them.

If the slowdown in sales was the result of demand waning, we would start to see home prices beginning to moderate – but this isn’t the case. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist for First American, explains:

“There’s a lot of conversation around rising prices and falling quantity in the housing market, and there’s this concept, or this idea, that it’s a demand-side problem . . . . But, if demand were falling dramatically, we would actually see less price pressure, less home price growth.”

Instead, we’re seeing price appreciation accelerate throughout this year, as evidenced by the year-over-year percentage increases reported by CoreLogic:

  • January: 10%
  • February: 10.4%
  • March: 11.3%
  • April: 13%
  • May: 15.4%
  • June: 17.2%

(July numbers are not yet available)

There’s a shortage of listings, not buyers, and there are three very good reasons for purchasers to still be interested in buying a home this year.

1. Affordability isn’t the challenge some are claiming it to be.

Though home prices have risen dramatically over the last 18 months, mortgage rates remain near historic lows. Because of these near-record rates, monthly mortgage payments are affordable for most buyers.

While homes are less affordable than they were last year, when we adjust for inflation, we can see they’re also more affordable than they were in the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and much of the 2000s.

2. Owning is a better long-term decision than renting.

A recent study shows renting a home takes up a higher percentage of a household’s income than owning one. According to the analysis, here’s the percentage of income homebuyers and renters should expect to pay now versus at the end of the year.Real Estate: It’s Still a Lack of Supply, Not a Lack of Demand | Simplifying The MarketWhile the principal and interest of a monthly mortgage payment remain the same over the lifetime of the loan, rents increase almost every year.

3. Owners build their wealth. Renters build their landlord’s wealth.

Whether you’re a homeowner or an investor, real estate builds wealth through growing equity year-over-year. If you own, your household is gaining the benefit of that wealth accumulation. Fleming says:

The major financial advantage of homeownership is the accumulation of equity in the form of house price appreciation . . . . We have to take into account the fact that the shelter that you’re owning is an equity-generating or wealth-generating asset.”

Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, elaborates in a recent article:

“. . . once the home is purchased, appreciation helps build equity in the home, and becomes a benefit rather than a cost. When accounting for the appreciation benefit in our rent versus own analysis, it was cheaper to own in every one of the top 50 markets, including the two most expensive rental markets, San Francisco and San Jose, Calif.”

Today, that equity buildup is substantial. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports:

“The median sales price of single-family existing homes rose in 99% of measured metro areas in the second quarter of 2021 compared to one year ago, with double-digit price gains in 94% of markets.”

In 94% of markets, there was a greater than 10% increase in median price. That means if you bought a $400,000 home in one of those markets, your net worth increased by at least $40,000. If you rented, the landlord was the recipient of the wealth increase.

Bottom Line

For many reasons, housing demand is still extremely strong. What we need is more supply (house listings) to meet that demand.

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Affordability

Down Payments Are Smaller Than They’ve Been Since 2021

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Saving for a down payment can feel like the hardest part of buying a home. And with affordability as tight as it’s been lately, it’s fair to wonder how anyone manages it right now. Here’s something you may not have seen coming. 

Some people are getting their foot in the door with a smaller down payment.

According to Realtor.com, the typical buyer put down about $23,400 in early 2026 – that’s around $5,000 below what was typical the year before (a 19% drop year over year). That’s the lowest down payments have been since 2021 (see graph below):

a graph of a line graph

So why are buyers putting less money down, and how can you put less down, too? Here’s your answer.

Why Down Payments Are Getting Smaller

There are a few things driving the trend:

  • Less competition between buyers. Part of it comes down to a more balanced market. With buyers facing less competition than they did a few years ago, there’s less pressure to put a big sum down just to stand out.

  • More moderate home prices. Your down payment is a percentage of the purchase price. So, as price growth cools, the amount you need to put down may change too. In a lot of markets, prices have slowed or leveled off, and some areas are even seeing slight dips. That can translate into smaller down payments.

  • Buyers opting for loans with lower down payments. More buyers are also turning to government-backed loans, like FHA and VA, which often need little or no money down. FHA loans have made up more than 24% of purchase mortgages for five straight quarters, and VA loans recently hit their highest share in over a decade, according to Mortgage Professional America.

But even a smaller down payment is still a significant chunk of cash, and saving it can be hard. So where does the rest come from? For many buyers, two things make the difference: programs built to help, and a hand from loved ones.

Help You May Not Know You Qualify For

Down payment assistance is one of the most overlooked tools out there. Looking at the 10 largest U.S. metros, Urban Institute and Down Payment Resource found nearly 44% of recent buyers already qualified for a down payment program, but many of them closed on their loan without tapping the help (see chart below):

a diagram of a payment

The options are broader than you might assume, too. According to Down Payment Resource:

  • There are more than 2,600 down payment assistance programs available

  • More than half (62%) are designed to help first-time buyers

  • 38% have no first-time buyer requirement, so you may qualify even if you’ve owned before

  • 62% are open to buyers earning $100,000 or more

A Boost from Loved Ones

For a growing number of buyers, help comes from closer to home. Research from Veterans United shows about 59% of parents have provided or plan to provide financial support to help their child buy a home.

That support most often goes toward the down payment, followed by help qualifying for a mortgage and covering closing costs. Chris Birk, VP of Mortgage Insight at Veterans United, puts it this way:

“For many families, helping a child buy a home has become less of an optional gesture and more of a practical response to today’s affordability challenges.”

If your loved ones are in a position to help, it can make a real difference in how soon you can buy.

Bottom Line

Down payments are smaller than they’ve been in years, and that opens the door for more buyers.

And with added help from assistance programs and a little help from loved ones, you may have more ways forward than you realized. Connect with a trusted lender to talk through your options.

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Equity

The Housing Market Is Stronger Than You Think

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You’ve probably heard plenty of doom and gloom about the housing market lately. High rates. Stretched budgets. Headlines that make buying or selling sound like a terrible idea. But the data tells a very different story. 

This isn’t 2020 or 2021. It was never going to be. Those were the “unicorn years” – historic low mortgage rates, bidding wars on everything, homes flying off the market in days. That kind of market was a once-in-a-generation anomaly, not a baseline. So, when people compare today to that, of course it looks rough.

But compared to almost any other housing market in modern history? This one is holding up remarkably well.

Homeowners Are Sitting on a Mountain of Equity

One of the biggest reasons this market hasn’t cracked is the financial strength of the American homeowner. According to Federal Reserve data, homeowner equity and mortgage debt were nearly identical in 2008. That means, if someone hit a rough patch, they had almost nothing to fall back on. That’s what made that crash so bad.

Today? Total homeowner equity across the country sits at $35 trillion – dwarfing total mortgage debt (see graph below):

a graph of a marketThat gap means most homeowners aren’t stretched thin or one bad month away from trouble. They own a meaningful chunk of their home and that gives them options. If they needed to sell, many could because they have a cushion. And that cushion grows over time.

  • Realtor.com found that homeowners who’ve been in their home just 5 years have built up around $180,000 in equity on average. Stick around 6-10 years, and that jumps to over $340,000.

  • Data from ATTOM and the Census shows two-thirds of homeowners either own their home outright or have more than 50% equity.

That’s not a fragile market. That’s a population of homeowners who are financially positioned to sell, to stay, or to make their next move from a place of strength rather than pressure.

Low Rates and Low Foreclosures

At the same time, Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) data shows more than half of all active mortgages still carry a rate below 4% (see graph below): 

a chart with text on itThat’s a big reason inventory stays tight. Those homeowners aren’t in a rush to trade their rate for a higher one. They’re sitting comfortably in a strong financial position, not scrambling.

That comfort shows up in the foreclosure numbers, too. Despite a slight recent uptick, foreclosure volumes remain dramatically below historical norms, according to ATTOM. Homeowners aren’t losing their homes in droves. They have equity, they have breathing room, and most have options that keep them out of financial distress.

Prices Are Stabilizing, Not Crashing

Here’s another point on the resilience of the market. Redfin research shows home prices are still rising, but the pace has slowed, now closer to 2% year-over-year nationally (see graph below):

a graph of a line graphThat slowdown is good news, as Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin, explains:

“We’re in the middle of a long-term housing market correction, not a housing market crash. After the pandemic-era frenzy sent prices soaring and inventory to historic lows, the market needed a reset.

Bottom Line

This market isn’t broken, and waiting for a crash that isn’t coming has a cost. Every month spent on the sidelines is a month someone else is building equity, locking in a price, or getting ahead of what most experts expect to be a housing surge once broader economic conditions settle.

Whether you’re thinking about buying or selling, a local real estate agent can help you figure out what this market means for your specific situation and what your next move could look like.

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Buying Tips

The 1 Factor That Explains Everything Happening with Home Prices Right Now

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You’ve probably heard that home prices are cooling off. And that’s true – nationally. But zoom in on individual markets across the country, and the picture looks completely different depending on where you are.

Some areas are still seeing solid price growth. Others have gone flat. A few have actually dipped slightly negative. So, what’s causing all of that variation? 

It All Comes Down to Inventory

Here’s the simple version:

  1. When there are more homes for sale, buyers have options.

  2. More options, means less competition.

  3. Less competition means sellers can’t push prices as high.

On the flip side, when inventory is tight, buyers are competing over a small pool of homes, and that pushes prices up.

That dynamic is playing out right now in a really visible way across the country. 

Markets where inventory has climbed back to, or above, normal pre-pandemic levels are seeing prices flatten or fall slightly. Markets where inventory is still well below those 2019 benchmarks are still seeing prices rise. As Lance Lambert, CEO of ResiClub, puts it:

“Home prices are still climbing a little year-over-year in many regions where active inventory remains well below pre-pandemic 2019 levels, such as pockets of the Northeast and Midwest.

In contrast, some pockets in states like Texas, Florida, and Colorado — where active inventory exceeds pre-pandemic 2019 levels by a solid clip — are seeing modest home price pullbacks or flat pricing.”

The Maps Say It All 

Take a look at where inventory stands today compared to 2019. In most places (the states in gray below), inventory still falls short of where we were back then. And that’s exactly why prices are climbing, albeit moderately, in the vast majority of states.

But you’re probably more interested in where prices are falling a bit, since that’s what is making headlines. So, let’s prove out how much inventory affects prices in those spots.

According to Realtor.com, 15 states and Washington, D.C. are now back above pre-pandemic inventory levels, and some by a wide margin (see the orange in the map below):

a map of the united statesNow, let’s look at the latest Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) data to see what’s happened to home prices in those same states over the past year (again, you’ll want to focus on the orange in the next map). 

See how those line up pretty closely with the areas seeing more homes for sale today?

The overlap isn’t a coincidence. It’s cause and effect. 

a map of the united states

The national average of 1.7% price growth is accurate, but it’s an average of two very different stories happening at the same time – the few areas experiencing mild declines and the overwhelming majority that are still seeing prices rise.

What This Means If You’re Buying or Selling 

If you’re a buyer, the market you’re shopping in matters a lot right now. In places like Texas, Colorado, or Florida, you may have real negotiating power – more choices, less competition, and sellers who are more motivated to make a deal. In tighter markets like much of the Northeast, you’re still likely facing a lot of competition.

If you’re a seller, pricing strategy is everything. In markets where inventory has risen, overpricing is one of the fastest ways to linger on the market and eventually sell for less than you would have with the right price from day one. In markets where inventory is still low, you’re in a strong spot, but getting your price right still matters if you want to attract serious buyers quickly. Either way, that’s where a local real estate agent earns their keep.

Bottom Line

When it comes to prices, where you are matters more than ever right now, and a local real estate agent is the best person to help you make sense of it.

Reach out to a local real estate agent today and work together to build a plan that fits your market.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.