Recession talk is all over the news, and the odds of a recession are rising this year. And that leaves people wondering what would happen to the housing market if we do go into a recession.

Let’s take a look at some historical data to show what’s happened in housing for each recession going all the way back to the 1980s.

A Recession Doesn’t Mean Home Prices Will Fall

Many people think that if a recession hits, home prices will fall like they did in 2008. But that was an exception, not the rule. It was the only time we saw such a steep drop in prices. And it hasn’t happened since.

In fact, according to data from CoreLogic, in four of the last six recessions, home prices actually went up (see graph below):

So, if you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, don’t assume a recession will lead to a crash in home prices. The data simply doesn’t support that idea. Instead, home prices usually follow whatever trajectory they’re already on. And right now, nationally, home prices are still rising at a more normal pace.

Mortgage Rates Typically Decline During Recessions

While home prices tend to stay on their current path, mortgage rates usually drop during economic slowdowns. Again, looking at data from the last six recessions, mortgage rates fell each time (see graph below):

So, a recession means mortgage rates could decline based on the data. While that would help with affordability, don’t expect the return of a 3% rate.

Bottom Line

The answer to the recession question is still unknown, but the odds have gone up. But that doesn’t mean you have to wonder about the impact on the housing market – historical data tells us what usually happens.

When you hear talk about a possible recession, what concerns or questions come to mind about buying or selling a home?

If selling your house is on your to-do list this year, the time to start prepping is now. That’s because experts say the best week to list your house is coming up fast.

A recent Realtor.com study analyzed years of housing market trends (excluding 2020 since it was an outlier) and found that April 13–19 is expected to be the ideal window to put your house on the market this year:

“. . . we’ve identified April 13-19 as the best week to list for sellers . . . a seller listing a well-priced, move-in ready home is likely to find success. Because spring is generally the high season for real estate activity and buyers are more plentiful earlier rather than later in the year, listing earlier in the spring raises a seller’s odds of a successful sale.”

What Makes This Week Stand Out?

As the quote mentions, spring is almost always a strong season for sellers. But this particular week could give you an even bigger advantage this year. Realtor.com goes on to say what listing during this sweet spot could mean for you:

• More buyers looking at your home since demand is high this time of year.
• A faster sale since serious buyers are eager to move before summer.
• A better chance of selling for top dollar. According to the study, you could get an average of $4,800 more this week (and $27,000 more than you would earlier in the year).

If You Want Your House on the Market for that Window, Act Now

With just a few weeks left before this prime listing window, you’ll need to make a plan to work smart and act fast. That’s where working with a great real estate agent comes in. They can help you:

• Figure out exactly what you need to do to get your house ready.
• Prioritize the tasks that’ll make the biggest impact in the shortest time.
• Decide if there are any quick fixes or small upgrades that could help you attract buyers.

Assuming your house is already in good shape, your focus should be on quick, high-impact updates. As Investopedia explains:

“You won’t have time for any major renovations, so focus on quick repairs to address things that could deter potential buyers.”

Here are a few examples of small projects that can make a big difference according to Redfin:

What If You’re Not Ready Just Yet?

Don’t worry – it’s okay if you don’t think you’ll be ready for this week. Just because April 13–19 is projected to be the ideal week by Realtor.com, that doesn’t mean it’s the only good time to sell. Even if you need a bit more time to get your home list ready, there’s still plenty of opportunity this homebuying season. 

Bottom Line

If you’ve been waiting for the right time to sell, this could be it. But timing isn’t the only thing that matters – how well you prep and price your home is just as important.

What’s one thing you’d need to do before you’d feel ready to list? Connect with an agent to figure out the best plan to make it happen.

Spring is in full swing, and the housing market is picking up along with it. And if you’ve been wondering whether now is the right time to buy or sell, here’s the inside scoop on why this spring may be a great time to make your move.

1. There Are More Homes for Sale

After a long stretch of tight inventory, the number of homes for sale is finally improving. According to recent national data from Realtor.com, active listings are up 27.5% compared to this time last year.

Look at the graph below and follow the green line for 2025. You can see, even though inventory levels still haven’t returned to pre-pandemic norms (shown in gray), that number is higher than it has been going into the spring market over the past few years (see graph below):

Buyers: This means you have more choices, and you can be more selective.

Sellers: With more homes available than in recent years, you’re more likely to find what you’re looking for when you move. And knowing that inventory is still below more normal levels means there will be demand for your home when you sell it, too.

2. Home Price Growth Is Moderating

As inventory grows, the pace of home price growth is slowing down – and that will continue into the spring market. This is because prices are driven by supply and demand. When there are more homes for sale, buyers have more options, so there’s less competition for each house. Rising supply and less buyer competition causes price growth to slow, but it should still remain positive in most markets. As Freddie Mac says:

“In 2025, we expect the pace of house price appreciation to moderate from the levels seen in 2024, while still maintaining a positive trajectory.”

And while prices aren’t dropping at the national level, every market is different. Some areas are seeing stronger price growth, while others are cooling off or even seeing some price declines.

Buyers: The slower pace of growth means prices aren’t rising as quickly as before – and that’s a relief. Any home you buy now is likely to appreciate in value over time, helping you build equity.

Sellers: While prices are still rising, you might need to adjust your expectations. Overpricing your house in a more balanced market could mean it takes longer to sell. Pricing your house competitively is going to be key to attracting offers.

3. Mortgage Rates Are Stabilizing

One of the biggest hurdles for buyers over the past couple of years has been high, volatile mortgage rates. But there’s some good news – overall, they’ve stabilized in recent weeks – and have even declined a bit since the beginning of this year. And while that decrease hasn’t been a big drop, stabilizing mortgage rates has helped make buying a home a bit more predictable. According to Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic:

“With the spring homebuying season upon us, the recent improvements in mortgage rates may help invite homebuyers back into the market.”

Buyers: When mortgage rates are more stable, it’s easier to plan ahead because you have a better idea of what your future payment might be. But remember, rates will continue to be volatile. So, lean on your agent and your lender to make sure you know what the latest mortgage rate means for you.

Sellers: Slightly lower rates that are starting to stabilize are encouraging more buyers to move forward with their plans. That’s good for demand when you’re planning to sell your house.

4. More Buyers Are Returning

With more inventory, slowing price growth, and stabilizing mortgage rates, buyers are gaining confidence and coming back into the market. Demand is picking up, and data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) shows an increase in mortgage applications compared to the start of the year (see graph below):

Buyers: Acting sooner rather than later could be a smart move before your competition heats up even more.

Sellers: This is great news for you – more buyers mean a better chance of selling your house quickly.

Bottom Line

Do you have questions about what the spring market means for you? Connect with a local real estate agent and talk about how to craft your plan this season.

With more homes for sale, slowing price growth, and stabilizing mortgage rates, how will this impact your decision to buy or sell this spring?