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Mortgage Rates

What Is Going on with Mortgage Rates?

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You may have heard mortgage rates are going to stay a bit higher for longer than originally expected. And if you’re wondering why, the answer lies in the latest economic data. Here’s a quick overview of what’s happening with mortgage rates and what experts say is ahead.

Economic Factors That Impact Mortgage Rates

When it comes to mortgage rates, things like the job market, the pace of inflation, consumer spending, geopolitical uncertainty, and more all have an impact. Another factor at play is the Federal Reserve (the Fed) and its decisions on monetary policy. And that’s what you may be hearing a lot about right now. Here’s why.

The Fed decided to start raising the Federal Funds Rate to try to slow down the economy (and inflation) in early 2022. That rate impacts how much it costs banks to borrow money from each other. It doesn’t determine mortgage rates, but mortgage rates do respond when this happens. And that’s when mortgage rates started to really climb.

And while there’s been a ton of headway seeing inflation come down since then, it still isn’t back to where the Fed wants it to be (2%). The graph below shows inflation since the spike in early 2022, and where we are now compared to their target rate:

No Caption Received

As the graph shows, we’re much closer to their goal of 2% inflation than we were in 2022 – but we’re not there yet. It’s even inched up a hair over the last 3 months – and that’s having an impact on the Fed’s plans. As Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, explains:

“Strong incoming economic and inflation data has caused the market to re-evaluate the path of monetary policy, leading to higher mortgage rates.”

Basically, long story short, inflation and its impact on the broader economy are going to be key moving forward. As Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, says:

It’s the longer-term outlook for economic growth and inflation that have the greatest bearing on the level and direction of mortgage rates. Inflation, inflation, inflation — that’s really the hub on the wheel.”

When Will Mortgage Rates Come Down?

Based on current market data, experts think inflation will be more under control and we still may see the Fed lower the Federal Funds Rate this year. It’ll just be later than originally expected. As Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), said in response to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision yesterday:

“The FOMC did not change the federal funds target at its May meeting, as incoming data regarding the strength of the economy and stubbornly high inflation have resulted in a shift in the timing of a first rate cut. We expect mortgage rates to drop later this year, but not as far or as fast as we previously had predicted.

In the simplest sense, what this says is that mortgage rates should still come down later this year. But timing can shift as new employment and economic data come in, geopolitical uncertainty remains, and more. This is one of the reasons it’s usually not a good strategy to try to time the market. An article in Bankrate gives buyers this advice:

“ . . . trying to time the market is generally a bad idea. If buying a house is the right move for you now, don’t stress about trends or economic outlooks.”

Bottom Line

If you have questions about what’s happening in the housing market and what that means for you, connect with a trusted real estate professional.

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Affordability

Wondering If You Should Still Buy a Home Right Now? Here’s What To Keep in Mind.

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With economic headlines, global events, and near constant talk about affordability, you may be wondering if this is the right time to move. But here’s what you need to remember.

While recent events do have some impact on the housing market, they don’t take buying off the table. You just have to use a different strategy.

Mortgage Rates Have Been Up Slightly – Here’s Why

After trending down for most of 2025, mortgage rates have been higher again for over roughly a month now. And experts say it’s a result of what’s happening overseas and in the broader economy. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explains:

“Mortgage rates have recently moved higher, driven by geopolitical uncertainty and rising energy costs that are contributing to inflation concerns.”

But what does that really mean for you? Should you wait for everything to settle back down before you buy a home?

The short answer is no. You don’t have to wait.

Your Window To Buy Didn’t Close

It’s true that a month or so ago, when rates were just shy of 6%, buying felt a bit more affordable. And now that rates are hovering around the mid-6s, monthly payment costs are higher.

But zoom out for a second.

Let’s say you’re taking out a loan for $500k. Even with rates in the mid 6s, you’re still saving roughly $300 on your monthly payment compared to buyers who made their purchase early last year.

That means this recent increase in rates hasn’t erased the progress we’ve seen. Buying is still more affordable than it was just one year ago (see below):

a blue and green chart with white textSure, your monthly payment would’ve been a little less expensive a few weeks back. But hindsight is always 20/20.

The goal moving forward shouldn’t be to perfectly time the market. Things change too quickly for that. Instead, the real goal is to make the best decision you can based on where things are today. And the best advice anyone can give is: brace for volatility.

When It Comes To Rates, Expect the Unexpected

Mortgage rates are going to continue to be move around in the weeks or months ahead as new information and economic reports come out.

Try to remember, you can’t control global events or where rates go next week (or even next month). But you can control how you prepare. If you do that, it becomes less about the headlines, and more about your situation.

If You Want or Need To Move, You Still Can

The simple truth is, if you want or need to move, you still can.

Some buyers are choosing to move forward right now because their needs haven’t changed. A growing family, a job relocation, a lifestyle shift – those things still matter.

And for buyers who do decide to move forward, there are ways to make it work.

For example, you could explore options like adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) to get a lower rate upfront. That may or may not be the right fit for you, but it highlights an important point: there are strategies that can help you move, even now.

What matters most is having a plan.

And working with the right agent and lender is a big part of that. With expert help, you’ll:

  • Understand your budget and what the math looks like at today’s rates.

  • Explore your financing options, including ARMs and assistance programs.

  • Have trusted guidance from experts who’ll keep you up to date throughout the process.

Bottom Line

Even though there’s some uncertainty, that doesn’t mean you’re out of options.

If you need to move, you still can. Connect with a trusted agent and lender so you can explore all your options and make your move happen.

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Buying Tips

Thinking About an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage? Here’s What You Need To Know.

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If you’ve been looking for a home lately, you’ve probably felt how tough affordability still is. And that’s exactly why more buyers are opting for adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs.

Here’s what you need to understand about how they work, and whether they make sense for you.

What Is an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage?

Since a lot of people aren’t familiar with this type of loan, let’s start with a definition. This is how Business Insider explains the main difference between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage:

“With a fixed-rate mortgage, your interest rate remains the same for the entire time you have the loan. This keeps your monthly payment the same for years . . . adjustable-rate mortgages work differently. You’ll start off with the same rate for a few years, but after that, your rate can change periodically. This means that if average rates have gone up, your mortgage payment will increase. If they’ve gone down, your payment will decrease.”

Basically, one doesn’t change much over the life of your loan.

And one could change… either by a little, or a lot.

Of course, things like taxes or homeowner’s insurance can still have an impact on a fixed-rate loan, but the baseline of your mortgage payment is fairly steady. But the big difference is that with an ARM, your monthly payment could change over time.

Why Adjustable-Rate Mortgages Are Getting More Attention

So, why do some buyers choose this option? It’s simple. It’s because of the upfront savings. Business Insider explains it like this:

“Because ARM rates are typically lower than fixed mortgage rates, they can help buyers find affordability when rates are high. With a lower ARM rate, you can get a smaller monthly payment or afford more house than you could with a fixed-rate loan.

And right now, according to Mortgage News Daily and the Wall Street Journal, the upfront rate on an ARM is lower than a 30-year fixed mortgage (see graph below):

a graph with green and blue linesIf you’re wondering how that shakes out in real dollars and cents, here’s what Redfin says. According to their research, the typical buyer could save about $150 per month by taking out an ARM instead of a 30-year fixed mortgage.

For some people, that’s enough to make a difference.

More Buyers Are Choosing Adjustable-Rate Mortgages Today

A growing number of buyers are willing to trade the uncertainty later for a lower payment now. Data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) shows the share of buyers choosing ARMs has increased, especially over the last few years (see graph below).

This doesn’t mean ARMs are becoming the go-to option for everyone. It only means some buyers are opting for this type of mortgage, so they can still buy today.

a graph with a line going upAnd if you remember the housing crash, seeing ARMs gain popularity again may raise concerns. But rest easy. Today’s ARMs aren’t the same.

Back then, some buyers were given loans they couldn’t afford once rates adjusted.

Today, lending standards are stricter, and lenders evaluate whether borrowers could still handle the payment if rates rise. So, the return of ARMs doesn’t signal another widespread crash. It just reflects how some buyers are adapting to today’s affordability challenges.

The Trade-Off – What You Need To Consider

If you’re considering an adjustable-rate mortgage yourself, just remember it really all depends on your situation and your risk tolerance.

An ARM may make sense if you plan to move before your rate would adjust or if you expect you’ll make a higher income in the future. But there are trade-offs you need to think through.

For example, once the fixed period ends, your rate can adjust, and your payment could increase, potentially by a meaningful amount depending on where rates are at that time.

And keep in mind, there’s also no guarantee mortgage rates will come down in the future, which means refinancing later isn’t always an option. That’s why it’s important to think through your plan, understand your long-term earning potential, and work closely with a trusted lender before you choose an ARM.

Bottom Line

ARMs are getting more attention again because they can make buying a home more affordable in the short term. But they’re not right for everyone.

The key is understanding how they work, what the risks are, and whether they fit your plan. And that’s why you need to talk to a trusted lender and financial advisor before you make any decisions.

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Buying Tips

You Can’t Control What’s Happening with Mortgage Rates. But You Can Control This.

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Mortgage rates have been volatile lately. And if you’re thinking about buying a home, that can make it harder to plan. But there are still things you can do to get the best rate possible in today’s market. It starts with having the right information.

So, what’s causing the bumps in rates? And what can you do about it? Let’s break it down.

Mortgage Rate Volatility Is Normal

Data from Freddie Mac shows the recent volatility. After trending down for well over a year, there was a rise this month (see graph below): 

a graph showing a line of a moving rate

While it’s easy to be distracted by the changes, here’s what you need to remember.

It’s normal for rates to bounce around a bit here and there. For example, if you look back at the graph, you’ll see that even within the past year there have been times like this when rates inched up. We’re in one of those moments right now and you need to be aware of that.

Especially when there’s economic uncertainty or big global events happening, volatility like this is expected. As Investopedia explains:

“Mortgage rates don’t move in isolation. When global events inject uncertainty into financial markets . . . that can ripple through to borrowing . . . mortgage costs can respond quickly to geopolitical developments. As long as uncertainty remains elevated, rate swings may continue.”

And that’s one of the reasons why trying to time the market isn’t a wise move.

You can’t control what happens with mortgage rates. But there are still things you can do to help you get the best rate possible in today’s market. And here’s where to focus your effort.

Your Credit Score

Your credit score plays a big role in the rate you qualify for. Even a small improvement can make a noticeable difference in your monthly payment. As Bankrate puts it:

“Your credit score is one of the most important factors lenders consider when you apply for a mortgage. Not just to qualify for the loan itself, but for the conditions: Typically, the higher your score, the lower the interest rates and better terms you’ll qualify for.”

So, make sure you do what you can to keep your credit score up. If you’re not sure what your score is or how you can improve it, talk to a trusted loan officer.

Your Loan Type

There are also different types of home loans – and each one can have unique requirements, benefits, and rates for qualified buyers. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) explains:

“There are several broad categories of mortgage loans, such as conventional, FHA, USDA, and VA loans. Lenders decide which products to offer, and loan types have different eligibility requirements. Rates can be significantly different depending on what loan type you choose.

That’s why it’s so important to explore your options with a lender. You may even want to talk to multiple lenders to see how the options vary.

Your Loan Term

The length of your loan matters too. Most lenders typically offer 15, 20, or 30-year loans. Freddie Mac offers this advice:

“When choosing the right home loan for you, it’s important to consider the loan term, which is the length of time it will take you to repay your loan before you fully own your home. Your loan term will affect your interest rate, monthly payment, and the total amount of interest you will pay over the life of the loan.

Again, to figure out what makes the most sense for your budget and long-term goals, have a lender walk you through all your options.

Bottom Line

Thinking about buying right now? The best advice is to accept that you can’t control where rates are going to go from here.

What you can do is work with a trusted lender and take steps that’ll help you get the best rate possible.

So, if you want to move today, talk to an agent and a lender to make it happen. You just need to control the controllables and focus where it counts.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.