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For Buyers

Homebuilders Aren’t Overbuilding, They’re Catching Up

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You may have heard that there are more brand-new homes available right now than the norm. Today, about one in three homes on the market are newly built. And if you’re wondering what that means for the housing market and for your own move, here’s what you need to know.

Why This Isn’t Like 2008

People remember what happened to the housing market back in 2008. And one of the factors that contributed to that crash was that there were too many homes for sale. While only part of the oversupply back then came from builders, the lasting impact is that some people still feel uneasy when they hear new home construction has ramped up.

Even though the supply of new homes has grown this year, the data shows there’s no need to worry. Builders aren’t overbuilding, they’re just catching up. 

The graph below uses data from the Census to show the number of new houses built over the last 52 years. Following the crash in 2008, there was a long period of underbuilding (shown in red). And it wasn’t until recently that we finally met the long-term average for how many homes are built in a typical year. No Caption Received

This shows, that even with the increase in new builds we’ve seen lately, there won’t suddenly be an oversupply of homes for sale. There’s too much of a gap to make up after over a decade of underbuilding. And if you’re still worried builders are overdoing it, here’s something else that should be reassuring. 

New Home Construction May Be at Its Peak for the Year

The latest data from the Census on housing starts (homes where builders just broke ground) and permits (homes where builders can start development soon) shows builders are slowing down their pace right now. Why is that?

They’re responding to still high mortgage rates and how those are impacting buyer demand. Basically, they’re pulling back appropriately in response to what’s happening in the market. As an article from HousingWire explains

“Even with a massive housing shortage across the nation, homebuilders are completing their pipelines and not seeking as many permits to construct new single-family houses.” 

Builders remember what happened when they overbuilt in the crash, and they’re looking to avoid a repeat of that. So, they’re being mindful and pulling back a bit.

You May Have More Options Now Versus Later

If you’re considering a newly built home, here’s how this impacts you. With builders seeking fewer permits and not breaking ground on as many new homes, we may be at the peak of new home construction for the year. This doesn’t mean new home construction is screeching to a stop – just that the pace is slowing down now, and that’ll impact what comes to market later this year. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:

“Given the recent declines in housing starts, home completions will steadily show declines in about six months.”

So, if you’re ready and able to buy now, you may find you’ll have more newly built options to choose from now versus later on. This may be enough reason to kick off your search.

Just be sure to work with a local real estate agent you know and trust throughout the process. An agent will have valuable insight into builder reputations and other key factors specific to your market. And if there isn’t much new construction near you, they’ll be able to point you toward a nearby area where there is.

Bottom Line

While it’s true new home construction is a bigger segment of the market than the norm, that’s not a bad thing. Builders aren’t overbuilding, and they’re responding to market signals to avoid repeating the mistakes that were made in 2008.

 

If you want to buy now while new home options may be at their peak, reach out to a local real estate agent. 

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For Buyers

You Finally Have More Options for Your Move

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a screenshot of a graph

Some Highlights

  • If you put your home search on hold because you couldn’t find anything you liked in your budget, it’s time to try again. ​
  • There’s a much wider selection of homes for sale, with more fresh listings hitting the market each month.
  • With more options come more possibilities. Connect with an agent if you want to see what’s available in your area.​

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Buying Tips

Should I Buy a Home Now or Wait?

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At some point, you’ve probably heard the saying: “Yesterday was the best time to buy a home, but the next best time is today.”

That’s because homeownership is about the long game – and home prices typically rise over time. So, while you may be holding out for prices to fall or rates to improve, you should know that trying to time the market rarely works.

Here’s what most buyers don’t always think about: the longer you wait, the more buying could cost you. And you deserve to understand why.

Forecasts Say Prices Will Keep Climbing

Each quarter, over 100 housing market experts weigh in for the Home Price Expectations Survey from Fannie Mae, and they consistently agree on one thing: nationally, home prices are expected to rise through at least 2029.

Yes, the sharp price increases are behind us, but experts project a steady, healthy, and sustainable increase of 3-4% per year going forward. And while this will vary by local market from year to year, the good news is, this is a much more normal pace – a welcome sign for the housing market and hopeful buyers (see graph below):

a graph of green bars

And even in markets experiencing more modest price growth or slight short-term declines, the long game of homeownership wins over time.

So, here’s what to keep in mind:

  • Next year’s home prices will be higher than this year’s. The longer you wait, the more the purchase price will go up.
  • Waiting for the perfect mortgage rate or a price drop may backfire. Even if rates dip slightly, projected home price growth could still make waiting more expensive overall.
  • Buying now means building equity sooner. When you play the long game of homeownership, your equity rewards you over time.

What You’ll Miss Out On

Let’s put real numbers into this equation, because it adds up quickly. Based on those expert projections, if you bought a typical $400,000 home in 2025, it could gain nearly $80,000 in value by 2030 (see graph below):

a graph of growth in a chartThat’s a serious boost to your future wealth – and why your friends and family who already bought a home are so glad they did. Time in the market matters.

So, the question isn’t: should I wait? It’s really: can I afford to buy now? Because if you can stretch a little or you’re willing to buy something a bit smaller just to get your foot in the door, this is why it’ll be worth it.

Yes, today’s housing market has challenges, but there are ways to make it work, like exploring different neighborhoods, asking your lender about alternative financing, or tapping into down payment assistance programs.

The key is making a move when it makes sense for you, rather than waiting for a perfect scenario that may never arrive.

Bottom Line

Time in the Market Beats Timing the Market.

If you’re debating whether to buy now or wait, remember this: real estate rewards those who get in the market, not those who try to time it perfectly.

Want to take a look at what’s happening with prices in your local area? Whether you’re ready to buy now or just exploring your options, having a plan in place can set you up for long-term success.

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Buying Tips

What You Can Do When Mortgage Rates Are a Moving Target

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Have you seen where mortgage rates have been lately? One day they go down a little. The next day, they go back up again. It can feel confusing and even frustrating if you’re trying to decide whether now’s a good time to buy a home.

Take a look at the graph below. It uses data from Mortgage News Daily to show that after a relatively stable month of March, mortgage rates have been on a bit of a roller coaster ride in April:

This kind of up-and-down volatility is expected when economic changes are happening.

And that’s one of the reasons why trying to time the market isn’t your best move. You can’t control what happens with mortgage rates. But you’re not powerless. Even with all the economic uncertainty right now, there are things you can do.

You can control your credit score, loan type, and loan term. That way, you can get the best rate possible in today’s market.

Your Credit Score

Your credit score can really affect the mortgage rate you qualify for. Even a small change in your score can make a big difference in your monthly payment. Like Bankrate says:

“Your credit score is one of the most important factors lenders consider when you apply for a mortgage. Not just to qualify for the loan itself, but for the conditions: Typically, the higher your score, the lower the interest rates and better terms you’ll qualify for.”

Keeping your credit score up is key when it comes to qualifying for a home loan. If you’re not sure where your score stands or how to improve it, talk to a loan officer you trust.

Your Loan Type

There are also different types of loans out there, and each one comes with unique requirements for qualified buyers. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) explains:

“There are several broad categories of mortgage loans, such as conventional, FHA, USDA, and VA loans. Lenders decide which products to offer, and loan types have different eligibility requirements. Rates can be significantly different depending on what loan type you choose. Talking to multiple lenders can help you better understand all of the options available to you.

Always work with a mortgage professional to figure out which loan makes the most sense for you and your financial situation.

Your Loan Term

Just like there are different loan types, there are also different loan terms. Freddie Mac puts it like this:

“When choosing the right home loan for you, it’s important to consider the loan term, which is the length of time it will take you to repay your loan before you fully own your home. Your loan term will affect your interest rate, monthly payment, and the total amount of interest you will pay over the life of the loan.

Most lenders typically offer 15, 20, or 30-year conventional loans. Be sure to ask your loan officer what’s best for you.

Bottom Line

You can’t control what’s happening with the economy or mortgage rates, but you can take steps that’ll help you get the best rate possible.

Connect with a local real estate agent and a lender to talk about what you can do today to put yourself in a strong spot for when you’re ready to buy a home.

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The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, Landshark Mark, LLC and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.