Connect with us

For Buyers

Do Elections Impact the Housing Market?

Published

on

The 2024 Presidential election is just months away. As someone who’s thinking about potentially buying or selling a home, you’re probably curious about what effect, if any, elections have on the housing market.

It’s a great question because buying or selling a home is a major decision, and it’s natural to wonder how such a major event might impact your plans.

Historically, Presidential elections have only had a small, temporary impact on the housing market. Here’s the latest on exactly what’s happened to home sales, prices, and mortgage rates throughout those time periods.

Home Sales

During the month of November, in years when the Presidential election takes place, there’s typically a slight slowdown in home sales. As Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, explains:

“Usually, home sales are unchanged compared to a non-election year with the exception being November. In an election year, November is slower than normal.

This is mostly because some people feel uncertain and hesitant about making big decisions during such a pivotal time. However, it’s important to know this slowdown is temporary. Historically, home sales bounce back in December and continue to rise the following year.

In fact, data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows after nine of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales went up the next year (see graph below): No Caption Received

The graph shows annual home sales going back to 1978. Each year with a Presidential election is noted in blue. The year immediately after each election is green if existing home sales rose that year. The two orange bars represent the only years when home sales decreased after an election.

Home Prices

What about home prices? Do they drop during election years? Not typically. As residential appraiser and housing analyst Ryan Lundquist puts it:

“An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.”

Home prices are pretty resilient. They generally rise year-over-year, regardless of elections. The latest data from NAR shows after seven of the last eight Presidential elections, home prices increased the following year (see graph below): No Caption Received

Just like the previous graph, this shows election years in blue. The only year when prices declined after an election is in orange. That was during the housing market crash, which was far from a typical year. Today’s market is different than it was back then.

All the green bars represent when prices rose the following year. So, if you’re worried about your home losing value because of an election, you can rest easy knowing prices rise after most Presidential elections.

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates are important because they affect how much your monthly payment will be when you buy a home. Looking at the last 11 Presidential election years, data from Freddie Mac shows mortgage rates decreased from July to November in eight of them (see chart below): No Caption Received

Most forecasts expect mortgage rates to ease slightly throughout the remainder of the year. If they’re right, this year will follow the trend of declining rates leading up to most previous elections. And if you’re looking to buy a home in the coming months, this could be good news, as lower rates could mean a lower monthly payment.

What This Means for You

So, what’s the big takeaway? While Presidential elections do have some impact on the housing market, the effects are usually small and temporary. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says:

“Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years.”

For most buyers and sellers, elections don’t have a major impact on their plans.

Bottom Line

While it’s natural to feel a bit uncertain during an election year, history shows the housing market remains strong and resilient. If you have questions, reach out to a local real estate agent. They’re here to help you navigate the market, election year or not.

Continue Reading
Click to comment

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Buying Tips

Two Big Reasons To Move This Summer

Published

on

A lot of people who want to move are telling themselves the same thing: “Maybe I’ll just wait until later this year once things calm down.” 

While waiting sounds like a good plan, there’s something worth knowing before you decide. Rates aren’t expected to change much, so if that’s the #1 reason you’re waiting, it may not pay off. And there may be other things you miss out on in the meantime. 

Historically, Summer is one of the strongest seasons of the year for both buyers and sellers. And if you delay your move until Fall or Winter, some of those opportunities may already be fading.

Buyers: Fresh Inventory Is Your Real Summer Advantage

One of the biggest frustrations buyers have faced over the past few years has been a lack of affordable options. Maybe you’ve run into that yourself:

  • You find a house you like, but it’s out of your budget.

  • You find something in your budget, but you don’t like it.

  • Or worse, nothing interesting hits the market for weeks.

Historically, Summer helps with that.

Looking at data from the last few years, Summer months consistently bring more sellers into the market than later in the year. And that gives buyers a real window of fresh choices.

According to Realtor.com, any given Summer month typically sees about 32% more fresh options than the average month from September-December.

a graph showing a number of prices

With more newly listed homes, there’s a better chance of finding one you like where the numbers actually work.

Because all it really takes is one home to completely change your search. And if you’ve got more popping onto the market to choose from, maybe one of those is exactly what you need. 

But keep in mind, this seasonal window isn’t open forever. Fresh inventory tends to slow down once Summer ends.

Many homeowners who planned to sell this year have already listed by then. Families who wanted to move before school starts have often already gotten it done, or at least, set it into motion. So, new listing activity usually cools as we head into Fall and Winter.

Of course, every year is different. But if finding the right home at the right price has been your biggest challenge, waiting until later in the year may not necessarily give you more options. In fact, recent history suggests it may do just the opposite.

Sellers: Homes Usually Sell for More in the Summer

If you’re thinking of selling, you may be considering holding off because you’ve seen headlines about lower asking prices, price cuts, and softer conditions in some markets. But those headlines don’t tell the whole story or convey just how much it varies by area.

Here’s what you really need to know. Even though the market’s becoming more balanced and some pockets are experiencing price declines, that doesn’t mean you’ve missed your chance to sell. 

Seasonality can still work in your favor no matter where you are. And this Summer could still give you the chance to sell for a good price.

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), homes sold during a Summer month usually sell for about 4% more than homes sold during the typical month from September-December:

a graph of a sales report 

Why? Summer buyers are usually operating on a set timeframe. They’re trying to move before the next school year or when they have more PTO and warmer weather to tour houses. That urgency can translate into better offers.

Now, that doesn’t mean you should price your house 4% higher this Summer. That would actually be a mistake in today’s market.

It just means if you’re looking to get as much for your house as you reasonably can, a Summer move could be a smarter play than waiting until later this year. 

Because based on typical seasonality, you may get more for your house than you would if you waited until the Fall or Winter (when there are typically fewer buyers active).

And if you’re considering a move anyway, that’s worth factoring in.

Bottom Line

Could waiting until later this year work out? Sure. But it’s important to understand what you may gain by moving now too – that way you have the full picture before you decide.

If a 2026 move is on your radar, talk to an agent about what matters most to you. Depending on your priorities, Summer could be your moment.

Continue Reading

Affordability

Lower Asking Prices Are a Win for Today’s Buyers

Published

on

If affordability has been the biggest thing standing between you and a home, there’s a little good news. 

Asking prices have started to come down.

The typical seller listed their house for a median of $429,500 in May. That’s 2.4% lower than a year ago, according to Realtor.com. On its own, that won’t transform what you can afford, but in today’s market every little bit helps and it signals a broader shift taking place.

Buyers Are Finally Catching a Break

Check out this data from Realtor.com and you can see this is the first May in years where buyers have caught any sort of break price-wise.

Each May from 2022-2025, things held pretty steady. But this year? You can see that more noticeable shift in your favor (see graph below):

a graph of sales in different colors

While the dip from $440,000 to $429,500 isn’t a big one, it gives you more breathing room. And that’s not a small thing when affordability has been this tough.

Now, lower asking prices don’t mean every home is suddenly within your range. But they do show buyers are gaining a little ground.

And in today’s market, a little ground can go a long way. 

What That Means for the Housing Market

And just in case this crossed your mind, this is good news for your move, not bad news for the market as a whole.

The subtle dip from last May to this one shows prices are easing, but they’re not dropping off a cliff. What this is actually a sign of is that the market’s rebalancing now that the number of homes for sale has grown.

Buyers have a bit more power again, and sellers know they can’t name just any price and expect their house to sell. They either meet the market where it is, or face a price cut later. And in general, sellers would rather avoid a price cut. As the New York Post explains:

Rather than swinging for the fences with pandemic-era price tags, sellers are increasingly coming to terms with a new reality. The share of listings featuring price cuts actually fell to 17.5% in May, suggesting homeowners are doing their homework before putting up a “For Sale” sign instead of chasing unrealistic numbers and cutting later.

This signals a broader change in the market.

Seller expectations have been skewed a little high since the pandemic buying frenzy – you’ve probably felt that firsthand. But now, things are starting to normalize. It could mean less back-and-forth to land on a fair number. And homes should be priced a bit more realistically from the start.

Bottom Line

If affordability has been your top concern, the recent dip in prices is an opening. Connect with a local real estate agent to see what that looks like in your area.

Continue Reading

Affordability

Could Moving a Bit Further Out Change Everything About Your Budget?

Published

on

Whether you’re dreaming about buying your first home or wondering if it’s time to move on from the one you’re in, affordability is probably weighing on your mind. Home prices are still high in many markets, and even though things have improved a bit over the past year, making the numbers work can still feel like a stretch.

But the people finding ways to move right now usually have one thing in common. They didn’t wait for affordability to come to them. They went looking for it.

According to PODS, 61% of people across all generations say affordability is the biggest factor when deciding where to move. And it’s led a growing number of people to do one thing – broaden their search to include more affordable areas they hadn’t seriously considered before. As PODS, put it:

“. . . moving is increasingly driven by affordability, connection, and quality of life. As economic pressures persist, Americans are taking a more intentional, values-driven approach to where they choose to live.”

It’s Not Just the Home Price – It’s the Whole Cost of Living

Here’s where it gets really interesting. When people talk about moving for affordability, they’re not just talking about finding a cheaper house. They’re thinking about the full picture. What does it actually cost to live somewhere?

WalletHub looked at exactly this, measuring housing costs as a share of median monthly household income across every state (see map below).

Take a look at where you live on that map. The lighter the blue, the more affordable it generally is to live there. The darker the blue? Just the opposite.

a map of the united states

If your state is showing up on the darker blue end of the scale, the cost of living may be putting a real pinch on your wallet, and it may be worth exploring what a lighter-blue area could mean for your finances.

Because if you’re less financially stretched, imagine how that could change things. Less stress. Less worry. More freedom and peace of mind.

You Don’t Have To Move to Another State To Find a Better Deal

But finding more affordable homeownership doesn’t have to mean a cross-country move. It doesn’t even have to mean leaving your state, your family, or your favorite coffee shop behind.

Every market has more affordable pockets that most buyers never think to explore – neighborhoods, towns, and communities where home prices are lower, property taxes are more manageable, and the overall cost of living just works better.

A great local real estate agent knows exactly where those places are.

And if you work remotely, or have any flexibility in where you’re based, your options open up even further. Remote work has already changed the way millions of people think about where to live, and that trend isn’t going away.

When location stops being tied to a daily commute, a more affordable area that’s a bit farther out suddenly becomes a very real option.

Bottom Line

Affordability is a real challenge, but it’s not an unsolvable one. The key is being open to places you might not have considered before. A local real estate agent can help you find them.

Ready to find out which areas have the best affordability right now? Reach out today.

Continue Reading

Subscribe for Weekly

Real Estate Insights

Advertisement

Trending

Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.