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Do Elections Impact the Housing Market?

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The 2024 Presidential election is just months away. As someone who’s thinking about potentially buying or selling a home, you’re probably curious about what effect, if any, elections have on the housing market.

It’s a great question because buying or selling a home is a major decision, and it’s natural to wonder how such a major event might impact your plans.

Historically, Presidential elections have only had a small, temporary impact on the housing market. Here’s the latest on exactly what’s happened to home sales, prices, and mortgage rates throughout those time periods.

Home Sales

During the month of November, in years when the Presidential election takes place, there’s typically a slight slowdown in home sales. As Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, explains:

“Usually, home sales are unchanged compared to a non-election year with the exception being November. In an election year, November is slower than normal.

This is mostly because some people feel uncertain and hesitant about making big decisions during such a pivotal time. However, it’s important to know this slowdown is temporary. Historically, home sales bounce back in December and continue to rise the following year.

In fact, data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows after nine of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales went up the next year (see graph below): No Caption Received

The graph shows annual home sales going back to 1978. Each year with a Presidential election is noted in blue. The year immediately after each election is green if existing home sales rose that year. The two orange bars represent the only years when home sales decreased after an election.

Home Prices

What about home prices? Do they drop during election years? Not typically. As residential appraiser and housing analyst Ryan Lundquist puts it:

“An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.”

Home prices are pretty resilient. They generally rise year-over-year, regardless of elections. The latest data from NAR shows after seven of the last eight Presidential elections, home prices increased the following year (see graph below): No Caption Received

Just like the previous graph, this shows election years in blue. The only year when prices declined after an election is in orange. That was during the housing market crash, which was far from a typical year. Today’s market is different than it was back then.

All the green bars represent when prices rose the following year. So, if you’re worried about your home losing value because of an election, you can rest easy knowing prices rise after most Presidential elections.

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates are important because they affect how much your monthly payment will be when you buy a home. Looking at the last 11 Presidential election years, data from Freddie Mac shows mortgage rates decreased from July to November in eight of them (see chart below): No Caption Received

Most forecasts expect mortgage rates to ease slightly throughout the remainder of the year. If they’re right, this year will follow the trend of declining rates leading up to most previous elections. And if you’re looking to buy a home in the coming months, this could be good news, as lower rates could mean a lower monthly payment.

What This Means for You

So, what’s the big takeaway? While Presidential elections do have some impact on the housing market, the effects are usually small and temporary. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says:

“Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years.”

For most buyers and sellers, elections don’t have a major impact on their plans.

Bottom Line

While it’s natural to feel a bit uncertain during an election year, history shows the housing market remains strong and resilient. If you have questions, reach out to a local real estate agent. They’re here to help you navigate the market, election year or not.

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Affordability

The 3 Housing Market Questions Coming Up at Every Gathering This Season

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Whether it’s at a family gathering, your company party, or catching up with friends over the holidays, the housing market always finds its way into the conversation.

Here are the top three questions on a lot of people’s minds this season, and straightforward answers to help you feel more confident about the market.

1. “Will I even be able to find a home if I want to move?”

Yes, more than you could a year or two ago.

The number of homes for sale has been rising over the past few years. According to data from Realtor.com, there have been more than one million homes on the market for six straight months, something that hasn’t happened since 2019 (see graph below):

a graph of a number of homesThat means two things:

  • Buyers have more options.
  • Sellers have more places they can move to next.

Many homeowners who held off are realizing the shelves aren’t bare anymore. So, if you hit pause on your home search last year because nothing fit your needs, it may be worth another look. With more homes on the market now, you’re not competing for the same handful of listings like you were a couple of years ago.

And because there’s a bit more to choose from, homes aren’t disappearing the minute they hit the market. That gives buyers more space to breathe, more options to compare, and a little more time to make a confident decision.

2. “Will I ever be able to afford a house?”

Affordability is starting to improve. Finally.

It’s been a tough few years for buyers. But this year brought some much-needed good news:

  • Mortgage rates have been easing.
  • Home price growth has been moderating.

That adds up to a monthly mortgage payment that’s hundreds of dollars lower than it would have been just a few months ago (see graph below):

a graph of blue rectangular barsBuying still isn’t easy, but the numbers are starting to improve. For a lot of people, that means buying a home is becoming a more realistic goal again.

3. “Should I wait for prices to come down?”

A lot of people worry that the housing market is about to crash, but the data doesn’t point in that direction. Yes, the number of homes for sale has been rising, but it’s still nowhere near the level needed for prices to fall significantly on a national scale. On top of that, homeowners today have a lot of equity and are in a much stronger financial position than they were back in 2008.

Of course, every local market is a little different. Some areas are still seeing prices climb, while others that saw huge spikes a few years ago are leveling off or seeing small corrections. But overall, the national picture is clear: experts surveyed by Fannie Mae project home prices will keep rising, just at a slower, more normal pace (see graph below):

a graph of green rectanglesThat’s why waiting for a major price drop to get a deal isn’t a very strategic plan. History shows the same thing over and over: people who spend time in the market tend to build the most long-term wealth, not the people who try to time the market perfectly.

Bottom Line

Talk about the housing market can feel loud and confusing, especially when you’re hearing so many different takes. A trusted local agent can help you make sense of the data and understand your options. If you’re thinking about buying or selling, reach out to a local professional.

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Buying Tips

How To Find the Best Deal Possible on a Home Right Now

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Want to know how to find the best deal possible in today’s housing market? Here’s the secret. Focus on homes that have been sitting on the market for a while.

Because when a listing lingers, sellers tend to get more realistic – and, more willing to negotiate. And that’s where the savviest buyers are finding homes other buyers overlook.

The Opportunity: 1 in 5 Homes Has Had a Price Cut This Year

According to Realtor.com, about 1 in every 5 listings (20.2%) have dropped their asking price at least once. And while so many things in today’s housing market vary by region, that number is consistent throughout the country. That tells you one thing…

No matter where you live, there’s a chance to score a better deal. You just need to know where to look. And that’s where your agent comes in.

The Tactic: Target Homes That Have Been Sitting the Longest

Your agent can help you identify which homes have been on the market the longest. Those are the ones where you’re more likely to get a discount. That’s because the seller may be getting frustrated their house hasn’t sold yet, so they’re more willing to play ball.

And since a lot of buyers steer clear of homes that aren’t selling, you may be the only offer they get. So, you can lean in and push for a better deal. As Realtor.com explains:

“Less competition means fewer bidding wars and more power to negotiate the extras that add up: closing cost credits, home warranties, even repair concessions . . . these concessions can end up knocking thousands of dollars off the price of a home.”

And they’re not the only ones calling out the opportunity you have right now. Bankrate also says:

“During the quieter fall and winter months, when fewer prospective buyers are shopping, home sellers may be more willing to lower their prices, or offer concessions, to attract those prospective buyers who are still looking.

And the proof is in the data. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows a clear pattern: the longer a home stays on the market, the lower it tends to sell for compared to the original asking price.

a graph of green rectangular objectsSo, if you’re serious about getting as much as you can for your money, focusing on these listings could be your best strategy yet.

Even a Small Discount Can Go a Long Way

And while paying 94% of the original asking price may not sound like much of a deal, the savings add up. That’s roughly $24,000 in savings on the median priced home (see chart below):

Zillow sums it up best:

If you’re a buyer who is hoping to strike a deal, look for homes that have been on the market for a while and that may already have lowered prices to entice buyers. You may find a motivated seller who is more willing to negotiate.”

Bottom Line

If you want to find the best deal possible on a home right now, start by looking where others aren’t.

With 1 in 5 sellers cutting prices and many growing more flexible by the week, the homes that have been sitting a little longer could be your best opportunity to save.

Talk to a local agent about where to find them in your area.

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Downsize

Why So Many People Are Thankful They Bought a Home This Year

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Homebuyers are weighing their options right now, and they certainly have a lot on their minds. With everything going on in the job market, the economy, and more – there’s a lot to think about these days. And maybe that’s making you wonder if it really makes sense to buy a home right now.

But here’s what many recent buyers would tell you: even with all that, making a move is worth it.

And this is why they’re thankful they went ahead and took the plunge already. Life doesn’t wait for better market conditions. So, your decision shouldn’t be about trying to time the market perfectly. It should be about moving when the time is right for you and what you need – and it’s different for everyone.

The Real Reasons People Bought a Home

According to the latest report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), what’s really driving today’s moves is the desire for something better or something different. It’s a personal motivator or a change in what they need out of the home that pushed buyers to act this year (see chart below):

a graph of a number of peopleFor some, that meant trading an apartment for their very first house – a home they can finally make their own, where they can paint the walls, plant the garden, and build a future.

For others, it meant getting closer to the people who matter most. Living near family or friends isn’t just convenient, it changes your everyday life. Sunday dinners, quick visits, extra help when you need it – that kind of connection is priceless.

And for many buyers, it’s the peace of finding a home that finally fits. It’s finally having space to grow: a bigger kitchen for family dinners, or bedrooms where kids can decorate their own walls and carve out their own corners of the world.

Or, it’s about simplifying. Downsizing to something smaller, easier to maintain, and closer to what matters most can make everyday life feel lighter and less stressful.

What You Miss Out on If You Try To Time the Market

No matter the reason, these buyers all share something in common: they stopped waiting for perfect timing and focused on creating the life they wanted now. And if you asked them, odds are they’d say that decision is paying off every day.

That’s what makes a move meaningful. Not the market conditions, but the freedom and happiness that come from living in a home that truly fits. So, while headlines may keep everyone guessing, the people who’ve already made their move are sleeping better, living fuller, and enjoying homes that finally feel right.

Because once your home finally matches your life, everything else starts to fall into place. And that’s exactly how you deserve to feel. 

Bottom Line

The people who bought a home this year didn’t wait for perfect market conditions to line up. They acted on what they needed in their life. And they’re thankful they did.

If you’re feeling the pull toward something better, talk to an agent about your goals. Your next home could bring you more space, more connection, and more happiness than you think.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.