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Do Elections Impact the Housing Market?

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The 2024 Presidential election is just months away. As someone who’s thinking about potentially buying or selling a home, you’re probably curious about what effect, if any, elections have on the housing market.

It’s a great question because buying or selling a home is a major decision, and it’s natural to wonder how such a major event might impact your plans.

Historically, Presidential elections have only had a small, temporary impact on the housing market. Here’s the latest on exactly what’s happened to home sales, prices, and mortgage rates throughout those time periods.

Home Sales

During the month of November, in years when the Presidential election takes place, there’s typically a slight slowdown in home sales. As Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, explains:

“Usually, home sales are unchanged compared to a non-election year with the exception being November. In an election year, November is slower than normal.

This is mostly because some people feel uncertain and hesitant about making big decisions during such a pivotal time. However, it’s important to know this slowdown is temporary. Historically, home sales bounce back in December and continue to rise the following year.

In fact, data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows after nine of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales went up the next year (see graph below): No Caption Received

The graph shows annual home sales going back to 1978. Each year with a Presidential election is noted in blue. The year immediately after each election is green if existing home sales rose that year. The two orange bars represent the only years when home sales decreased after an election.

Home Prices

What about home prices? Do they drop during election years? Not typically. As residential appraiser and housing analyst Ryan Lundquist puts it:

“An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.”

Home prices are pretty resilient. They generally rise year-over-year, regardless of elections. The latest data from NAR shows after seven of the last eight Presidential elections, home prices increased the following year (see graph below): No Caption Received

Just like the previous graph, this shows election years in blue. The only year when prices declined after an election is in orange. That was during the housing market crash, which was far from a typical year. Today’s market is different than it was back then.

All the green bars represent when prices rose the following year. So, if you’re worried about your home losing value because of an election, you can rest easy knowing prices rise after most Presidential elections.

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates are important because they affect how much your monthly payment will be when you buy a home. Looking at the last 11 Presidential election years, data from Freddie Mac shows mortgage rates decreased from July to November in eight of them (see chart below): No Caption Received

Most forecasts expect mortgage rates to ease slightly throughout the remainder of the year. If they’re right, this year will follow the trend of declining rates leading up to most previous elections. And if you’re looking to buy a home in the coming months, this could be good news, as lower rates could mean a lower monthly payment.

What This Means for You

So, what’s the big takeaway? While Presidential elections do have some impact on the housing market, the effects are usually small and temporary. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says:

“Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years.”

For most buyers and sellers, elections don’t have a major impact on their plans.

Bottom Line

While it’s natural to feel a bit uncertain during an election year, history shows the housing market remains strong and resilient. If you have questions, reach out to a local real estate agent. They’re here to help you navigate the market, election year or not.

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For Buyers

3 Things That Are Not Going To Happen in Today’s Housing Market

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There’s a lot of uncertainty right now and that’s leading to some dramatic headlines. And if you’re thinking about buying a home, that can make you feel a little less sure about your decision.

A recent study by CNBC asked homebuyers what they’re most worried about, and three themes kept coming up again and again:

  • Mortgage rates
  • The number of homes for sale
  • Home prices

But a lot of what you may be hearing on those is based more on misconceptions. Not facts. So, let’s break it down and separate fact from fiction.

Misconception #1: “I’ll Just Wait, Because Mortgage Rates Are Going To Fall Dramatically”

One idea doing its rounds on social is that mortgage rates are going to drop dramatically soon. So, it’s better to wait to buy.

But is that really what’s expected?

While mortgage rates have come down a bit in the last few weeks, forecasts don’t show a major drop ahead. The most likely scenario is that rates stay somewhere in the low 6% range this year. 

And that’s not a big change from where rates are now (see graph below): 

a graph with numbers and linesOf course, this depends on where inflation and the economy go from here. But, based on what we know today, waiting for a big drop in rates may not work out the way some people hope. As U.S. News explains:

“Mortgage rates aren’t expected to change much over the next several quarters . . .”

Not to mention, even with rates where they are today, it’s already more affordable than a year ago. So, even if they don’t change much, it’s still better than it was.

Misconception #2: “There Are Too Many Homes for Sale Right Now”

You’ve probably heard inventory is up. And nationally, it is. The number of homes for sale is 8% higher than this time last year. But that’s not a bad thing. In fact, it’s one of the reasons buyers have a bit more breathing room right now.

The problem is the headlines are making something good, sound bad. They’re focusing on how this is the most inventory we’ve had since 2019 or how many homes builders are building. And that can make it sound like the number of homes for sale is rising too far, too fast.

But that’s not what the bigger picture shows.

Data from Realtor.com proves that, even though inventory is up compared to last year, it’s still nearly 14% lower than it was during the last normal housing market (2017-2019):

While it can vary a lot based on where you live, only 9 states have more inventory than pre-pandemic today. That’s a key reason why there still aren’t enough homes for sale to trigger something like the crash back in 2008.

Misconception #3: “Home Prices Are About To Crash”

You’ve probably seen this one, too. The confusion is coming from the fact that some metros are experiencing slight price declines. And influencers are running with that and saying prices are crashing. But that’s not the reality.

Most areas are seeing prices rise, not fall. And that’s because:

  • Many homeowners aren’t selling because they don’t want to give up the low mortgage rate they locked in a few years ago. And that’s keeping a lid on how much inventory can grow.
  • Since inventory is still below pre-pandemic norms, there aren’t enough homes for sale to cause a price crash.
  • And even in markets with more inventory, some sellers are choosing to pull their homes off the market instead of cutting prices.

And those are 3 big reasons prices aren’t headed for a crash. 

And even in the markets experiencing mild declines, the drops aren’t enough to cancel out the big gains most homeowners have seen in the last 5 years (see graph below):

That’s not a crash. That’s just prices moderating after a few record-breaking years.

Bottom Line

Online posts are going to make things sound worse than they are. If you want a true, data-bound look at what’s really happening in today’s market, lean on a real estate agent.

Connect with a local agent so you have someone to separate fact from fiction today.

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For Buyers

More Options Are Popping Up This Spring

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Did you try to buy a home last year, but you ended up pressing pause?

Maybe you couldn’t find a home that really fit your needs. Or maybe the ones you liked just weren’t affordable. According to a recent survey from NerdWallet, those were the top two reasons buyers gave up on their search in 2025.

But this Spring, there’s one trend that could help fix both of those frustration points: more homes are hitting the market.

The Number of Fresh Listings Is Almost 2x Higher Than a Few Months Ago

Data from Realtor.com shows there are nearly 2x as many new listings hitting the market today as there were just 3 months ago. Those are homes the seller just put up for sale (see graph below):

a graph of a bar chartThat’s a significant rise. And while we usually see an uptick as we head into the busiest time of the year, this increase was bigger than normal. Jake Krimmel, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, explains:

New listings jumped 21.2% from February to 439,000, a larger-than-typical seasonal surge . . . March typically sees the biggest month-over-month jump in new listings of the entire buying season, averaging an 18% increase since 2017; this year it exceeded 20%.”

That means more sellers are jumping back into the market, and that’s giving buyers more fresh options to choose from. So, if you’d felt like you’d seen everything out there and still nothing was quite right, this may be your moment.

With that many “just listed” homes, one of them could be exactly what you’ve been searching for.

Where You Have More Options

And this trend is happening across most of the country, so you should have more options pretty much whereever you are.

Earlier this year, the Northeast had fewer new listings because winter storms delayed sellers from putting their homes on the market. But now, that region is catching up fast.

In March, new listings jumped across nearly every state, especially in the Northeast, helping drive a strong national rebound.

What Rising Inventory Means for You

Right now, there are almost a million homes for sale nationwide. That’s up over 8% compared to last year.

With that many homes on the market, there’s a much better chance something will fit what you’re looking for, especially with so many fresh options being added right now. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, explains:

“One of the most encouraging signals heading into the spring home-buying season is the improvement in for-sale inventory levels compared with last year. . . More homes on the market give buyers greater choice and, combined with improved buying power, expand the range of homes they can realistically consider.

In other words, your search may feel very different this year.

Bottom Line

More fresh listings are hitting the market right now, and that’s creating real opportunity.

If you put your search on hold last year, this Spring may be the time to jump back in. Connect with a local real estate agent to see what’s newly available in your area.

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Equity

Rent or Buy? The Real Tradeoff Most People Don’t Talk About

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You’ve probably asked yourself lately: Is it even worth trying to buy a home right now? It’s a question a lot of people are asking.

With today’s home prices and mortgage rates, renting can feel like the easier path. In some cases, it might even seem like the only realistic option right now. And if that’s where you are, there’s nothing wrong with that.

But if you’re weighing the decision, there’s one part of the conversation that doesn’t get talked about enough.

It’s what each choice does for your future.

What Renting Really Gets You (And What It Doesn’t)

Depending on your situation, renting does have some advantages:

  • Lower upfront costs.
  • Less responsibility.
  • More flexibility to move when you want.

But even with those benefits, a Bank of America survey found 70% of aspiring homeowners worry about what long-term renting means for their future. And that concern comes down to one thing: you’re not building anything for your future. As Yahoo Finance explains:

“Paying rent doesn’t build equity. You get a place to live, but no ownership stake, no price appreciation, and no asset to leverage for future borrowing or investment.”

So, while renting may feel easier, the flexibility you get comes at a cost.

How Homeownership Builds Your Wealth Over Time

On the other hand, owning a home is one of the most consistent ways people build wealth over time. Why? When you’re a homeowner, you gain something called equity. That’s the difference between what your home is worth and what you owe.

That equity grows with every monthly payment you make. It also gets a boost as home values go up through the years – and it adds up quicker than you may think.

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says the average homeowner’s net worth is 43X greater than that of a renter:

a graph of a number of peopleThe dollars in the visual don’t lie. On average, here’s how net worth compares:

  • Homeowners: $430k
  • Renters: $10k

And it’s not because homeowners make wildly different decisions day to day. It’s because over time, one path builds something, and the other doesn’t.

So sure, buying comes with some upfront costs and more responsibility. But it’s basically a savings account you can live in.

The Gap Is Growing Over Time

And here’s something else interesting. That net worth gap between renters and homeowners has been widening over time, not shrinking.

If you look back at the reports on net worth through the years, you can see the gap is growing as homeowners gain wealth and renters stay stuck in the rental trap (see graph below):

a graph of green and blue barsEven in 2025, when home prices were moderating, homeowners still gained even more ground. And that tells you something important:

When you can afford it and you’re ready for the responsibility, history shows buying is usually worth it in the long run. Because either way, you’re paying for someone’s mortgage and building someone’s net worth.

When you rent, it’s your landlord’s mortgage – not yours. But when you buy? Your monthly payments help build equity.

The question is: whose do you want to pay? Yours or theirs?

So, Should You Buy a Home Now?

The short answer is, it depends on your situation.

While the long-term benefits of buying are clear, that doesn’t mean the timing is right for everyone right now. And that’s okay. You should only buy a home once you’re ready and the numbers work for you.

But whether you’re looking to buy now or planning for the future, the first step is the same. You should have a quick conversation with a local real estate agent about your goals, timeline, and budget.

They can help you run the numbers and see what’s realistic. You may find buying is closer than you thought. And if not, you’ll at least know exactly what it will take to get there.

Because the sooner you have a plan, the sooner you can decide when it makes sense, instead of wondering if it ever will.

Bottom Line

Renting may feel more do-able today. But over time, it could cost you.

If you want to ditch renting and start building something for your future, it starts with a simple conversation. Connect with a real estate agent to talk about your specific goals, and explore your options – so you’re ready when the time is right for you.

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Copyright © 2020-2025 Mark Sincavage. All rights reserved.  
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.