Recession talk is all over the news, and the odds of a recession are rising this year. And that leaves people wondering what would happen to the housing market if we do go into a recession.

Let’s take a look at some historical data to show what’s happened in housing for each recession going all the way back to the 1980s.

A Recession Doesn’t Mean Home Prices Will Fall

Many people think that if a recession hits, home prices will fall like they did in 2008. But that was an exception, not the rule. It was the only time we saw such a steep drop in prices. And it hasn’t happened since.

In fact, according to data from CoreLogic, in four of the last six recessions, home prices actually went up (see graph below):

So, if you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, don’t assume a recession will lead to a crash in home prices. The data simply doesn’t support that idea. Instead, home prices usually follow whatever trajectory they’re already on. And right now, nationally, home prices are still rising at a more normal pace.

Mortgage Rates Typically Decline During Recessions

While home prices tend to stay on their current path, mortgage rates usually drop during economic slowdowns. Again, looking at data from the last six recessions, mortgage rates fell each time (see graph below):

So, a recession means mortgage rates could decline based on the data. While that would help with affordability, don’t expect the return of a 3% rate.

Bottom Line

The answer to the recession question is still unknown, but the odds have gone up. But that doesn’t mean you have to wonder about the impact on the housing market – historical data tells us what usually happens.

When you hear talk about a possible recession, what concerns or questions come to mind about buying or selling a home?

Last year, 70% of buyers abandoned their home search – and maybe you were one of them. It makes sense. Inventory was low, prices were high, and mortgage rates were up and down like a rollercoaster. All of that made it really hard to find a home you loved – and could afford.

But guess what? The market is shifting.

So, if you paused your moving plans in 2024, it might be time to hit play again. Here’s why.

More Inventory Opens Up More Options

Even if you could make the numbers work, the lack of available homes in recent years probably made it hard to come by something that fit your needs. But inventory is rising, which means you have more options now.

According to Realtor.com, inventory has jumped 27.5% since this time last year (see graph below):

So, if you were reluctant to list your house because you weren’t sure where you’d go if it sold, you have more choices than you did a year ago. That’s a big win.

Homes Are Staying on the Market Longer, Too

When the supply of homes for sale is low, they’re snatched up quickly because there just aren’t enough of them to go around. And a few years ago, that meant your house could sell overnight. While that’s not always a bad thing, if you’re planning a move and also need to find your next home, a slower pace isn’t the end of the world. In fact, it’s welcome relief.

Now that inventory has grown, homes are staying on the market longer, meaning you don’t have to feel as rushed in the process (see graph below):

The latest data shows the typical time homes spent on the market went up by about 8% this year – that’s higher than we’ve seen since 2020, but still a faster pace than before the market ramped up. And it’s about a week longer than last year. Talk about a sweet spot for movers. It may seem like just a few days, but it gives you more flexibility and time to be thoughtful about your decisions. As Hannah Jones, Senior Economic Research Analyst at Realtor.com, notes:

“There are more homes for sale than in the last few years, which means the market pace is a bit more manageable–with longer days on market–and many sellers are more flexible . . . Though buyers face still-high housing costs, they may find a bit more give in the market, which could give them more time to make a decision, even in the busy spring and summer months.”

And if you’re thinking – but wait – doesn’t that mean it will be harder to sell my house? Don’t worry. With inventory still almost 23% below the pre-pandemic norm, well-priced homes are selling, especially as more buyers step back into the game this season.

Bottom Line

With growing inventory, sellers who want to upgrade, downsize, or relocate have more choices. Plus, with less pressure to rush into an offer, it could be a great time to revisit your home search if you put it on hold.

With more homes on the market and more time to make decisions, what else do you need to see in order to kickstart your home search again?

You may have heard there are more homes for sale right now. And while that’ll vary depending on the market, it means that overall, things are starting to lean in a more balanced direction. As that happens, some sellers are a bit more open to compromise. Here’s what that means for you.

You may be regaining some negotiating power. That can translate into savings, perks, or even better terms on your purchase – if you know what levers to pull during negotiation.

Why an Agent Is an Essential Part of the Negotiation Process

The complicated part is knowing what is and isn’t on the table. That’s where your agent comes in. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), besides finding the right home, the top thing buyers want from their agent is help negotiating the terms of the sale, followed by negotiating the price.

Here’s why. Agents are skilled negotiators and are trained for moments like this. Since your agent is an expert on the local market, they’ll also know what’s working for other buyers (and what’s not), and that can help you get a better understanding of what’s realistic to ask for.

What’s on the Negotiation Table?

Here are some of the most common concessions an agent can help you negotiate:

• Sale Price: The most obvious concession is the price of the home. And that lever is being pulled more often today. Buyers don’t want to overpay when affordability is already so tight. And sellers who aren’t realistic about their asking price may have to consider adjusting their price.
• Closing Costs: Closing costs are usually about 2-5% of a home’s purchase price and include fees for things like the appraisal, title insurance, and underwriting of your loan. To offset the cash you have to bring to the table, you can ask the seller to pay for some or all of these expenses. This was the most common concession sellers made in 2024, according to NAR.
• Home Warranties: If you’re worried about the maintenance costs that may pop up after you get the keys, you can ask the seller to pay for a home warranty. Since this concession usually isn’t terribly expensive for the seller, it can be a good negotiation tool for a buyer. It’s not a big cost for them, but it can be a big perk for you.
• Home Repairs: Based on the inspection, you’re within your rights to ask the seller to make repairs. If the seller doesn’t want to, they could offer to drop the home price or cover some closing costs, so you have more room in your budget to take care of the repairs yourself.
• Fixtures: Want that washer and dryer to stay? Maybe the stainless-steel fridge, too? In many cases, you can ask for appliances or even furniture to be included in the deal, which will save you money when you move in.
• Closing Date: The closing date is also negotiable. Based on your timeline, you may also request a faster or extended closing window. Depending on the seller’s needs, this could be great for their situation, too.

Of course, negotiating is a complex process. And not every seller will be willing to offer concessions. Again, lean on your agent for expert advice about what’s realistic to ask for and what could turn sellers off.

Because once you’ve found a home you love, you don’t want to risk losing it. But you also want to get the best terms possible on your purchase – and that’s where an agent can make all the difference.

Bottom Line

As inventory grows, buyers are finding they have a bit more leverage. And having the right agent by your side – who can help you approach negotiations strategically – is key.

What’s your biggest concern when it comes to negotiating with a seller?