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Economy

Not a Crash: 3 Graphs That Show How Today’s Inventory Differs from 2008

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Even if you didn’t own a home at the time, you probably remember the housing crisis in 2008. That crash impacted the lives of countless people, and many now live with the worry that something like that could happen again. But rest easy, because things are different than they were back then. As Business Insider says:

“Though many Americans believe the housing market is at risk of crashing, the economists who study housing market conditions overwhelmingly do not expect a crash in 2024 or beyond.”

Here’s why experts are so confident. For the market (and home prices) to crash, there would have to be too many houses for sale, but the data doesn’t show that’s happening. Right now, there’s an undersupply, not an oversupply like the last time – and that’s true even with the inventory growth we’ve seen this year. You see, the housing supply comes from three main sources:

  • Homeowners deciding to sell their houses (existing homes)
  • New home construction (newly built homes)
  • Distressed properties (foreclosures or short sales)

And if we look at those three main sources of inventory, you’ll see it’s clear this isn’t like 2008.

Homeowners Deciding To Sell Their Houses

Although the supply of existing (previously owned) homes is up compared to this time last year, it’s still low overall. And while this varies by local market, nationally, the current months’ supply is well below the norm, and even further below what we saw during the crash. The graph below shows this more clearly.

If you look at the latest data (shown in green), compared to 2008 (shown in red), we only have about a third of that available inventory today. No Caption Received

So, what does this mean? There just aren’t enough homes available to make values drop. To have a repeat of 2008, there’d need to be a lot more people selling their houses with very few buyers, and that’s not the case right now.

New Home Construction

People are also talking a lot about what’s going on with newly built houses these days, and that might make you wonder if homebuilders are overdoing it. Even though new homes make up a larger percentage of the total inventory than the norm, there’s no need for alarm. Here’s why.

The graph below uses data from the Census to show the number of new houses built over the last 52 years. The orange on the graph shows the overbuilding that happened in the lead-up to the crash. And, if you look at the red in the graph, you’ll see that builders have been underbuilding pretty consistently since then: No Caption Received

There’s just too much of a gap to make up. Builders aren’t overbuilding today, they’re catching up. A recent article from Bankrate says:

“What’s more, builders remember the Great Recession all too well, and they’ve been cautious about their pace of construction. The result is an ongoing shortage of homes for sale.”

Distressed Properties (Foreclosures and Short Sales)

The last place inventory can come from is distressed properties, including short sales and foreclosures. During the housing crisis, there was a flood of foreclosures due to lending standards that allowed many people to get a home loan they couldn’t truly afford.

Today, lending standards are much tighter, resulting in more qualified buyers and far fewer foreclosures. The graph below uses data from ATTOM to show how things have changed since the housing crash: No Caption Received

This graph makes it clear that as lending standards got tighter and buyers became more qualified, the number of foreclosures started to go down. And in 2020 and 2021, the combination of a moratorium on foreclosures (shown in black) and the forbearance program helped prevent a repeat of the wave of foreclosures we saw when the market crashed.

While you may see headlines that foreclosure volume is ticking up – remember, that’s only compared to recent years when very few foreclosures happened. We’re still below the normal level we’d see in a typical year.

What This Means for You

Inventory levels aren’t anywhere near where they’d need to be for prices to drop significantly and the housing market to crash. As Forbes explains:

“As already-high home prices continue trending upward, you may be concerned that we’re in a bubble ready to pop. However, the likelihood of a housing market crash—a rapid drop in unsustainably high home prices due to waning demand—remains low for 2024.”

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, points to the laws of supply and demand as a reason why we aren’t headed for a crash:

“There’s just generally not enough supply. There are more people than housing inventory. It’s Econ 101.”

And Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:

“We will not have a repeat of the 2008–2012 housing market crash. There are no risky subprime mortgages that could implode, nor the combination of a massive oversupply and overproduction of homes.”

Bottom Line

The market doesn’t have enough available homes for a repeat of the 2008 housing crisis – and there’s nothing that suggests that will change anytime soon. That’s why housing experts and inventory data tell us there isn’t a crash on the horizon.

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Economy

A Recession Doesn’t Mean a Housing Crisis

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a screenshot of a graph

Some Highlights

  • There’s a lot of talk about a recession lately and how the odds of one are rising. If you’re wondering what that means for the housing market, here’s what the data tells us.
  • While you may remember the price crash in 2008, that’s not the norm. Looking back all the way to 1980, home prices usually rise and mortgage rates tend to fall. 
  • If you have questions about buying or selling a home in today’s market, connect with a real estate agent.

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Downsize

Does Your Current Home Fit Your Retirement Plans?

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Retirement isn’t just a milestone. It’s the beginning of something really special. After years of hard work, it’s finally time to slow down, explore new passions, and live life on your own terms.

But with this exciting chapter comes some big choices. And one of the biggest is this: does your current home still make sense for the lifestyle (and budget) you want in this next phase of life?

That’s an especially important question right now. Just in the past five years, the cost of living has jumped by 23% according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). That’s based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is how changes are tracked in the average price consumers pay for goods and services (see graph below):

a graph with a line going upWhen you’re thinking about how to make your retirement savings last, those rising expenses matter. And if you’ve started to wonder whether your money will stretch as far as you need it to go, don’t worry. You may have more control than you think.

One way many retirees are protecting their savings is by relocating. Because your dollars do go further in some places.

Moving to an area with a lower cost of living can help you save on regular expenses like your housing, utilities, and taxes – especially if you downsize at the same time.

And that can free up room in your budget for the things that make retirement some of the best years of your life: travel, hobbies, spoiling your grandkids, or any of the other things you’ve been dreaming about doing in this next phase.

That’s not to say you have to move. It just means you’ll want to think about where you plan to live and make sure you’ve got enough savings to cover actually living there. It’s all about planning. As Go Banking Rates explains:

“How much you should have saved for retirement depends on a few key factors, including your location. Where you choose to spend your golden years is critical.”

And you don’t always have to go far. Sometimes it’s out of state, but other times moving to the suburbs instead of living near the city can make a big difference. And that’s worth thinking about as you plan for your next chapter.

Whether you’re considering downsizing, moving closer to your grandkids, or heading to an area where you can stretch your savings, a real estate agent can help. They’ll work with you to explore the options that make sense for your goals – and can help make selling your current house easier. They can also connect you with trusted agents in other parts of the country if you’re considering a big move.

Bottom Line

You’ve worked hard to build a future you can enjoy. If your current home or location no longer supports that, it may be time to explore what’s next. 

What does your ideal retirement look like? And could a move help make it even better? Connect with an agent to talk about how to make that vision a reality.

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Economy

Is It Time To Put Your House Back on the Market?

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If you took your house off the market in late 2024, you’re not the only one. Newsweek reports that data from CoreLogic and the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) says nearly 73,000 homes were pulled from the market in December alone – that’s more than any other December going all the way back to 2017 (see graph below):

a graph of blue bars with numbersWhether it was because offers weren’t coming in, the timing around the holidays felt overwhelming, or they wanted to see if the market would improve in the new year – a lot of other homeowners decided to press pause, too.

But now, with spring fast approaching, it’s time to reassess. The market is already picking up, and waiting any longer to jump back in may only mean you’d face more competition from other sellers down the road.

Why Now Could Be the Right Time 

Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, explains that some of those sellers may have pulled their listings late last year with the goal of trying again this spring: 

“Another reason for a step back could be that sellers wanted to wait and see how spring home buying season goes, and if mortgage rates fall, which would bring more home buyers and competition back in the market.”

That’s because spring is when buyer demand is typically at its highest point for the year. More people start their home search once the weather warms up. They’re eager to close on a home so they can move in during the summer. So, it’s a great window for sellers. It means more buyers.

And while mortgage rates haven’t fallen dramatically, they have come down some in recent weeks. Early signs already show buyers are becoming more active as a result. Since January, demand has picked up – and that should continue as spring draws even closer.

What To Do Differently This Time

Start by checking the status of your listing agreement. Because even if you pulled your listing, you may still be under contract. And until your listing expires, your agent or brokerage is your best resource on what else you could try to get it sold. Realtor.com offers this advice:

“If you aren’t sure of the status of your listing, whether active, expired, or withdrawn, take a look at your listing agreement and talk to your real estate agent.”

If your contract is still active, now’s the perfect time to reconnect with your agent to explore strategies to get your home sold this time around. If your contract has since expired and you’re considering other options, reach out to a trusted real estate professional who can help you figure out where to go from here.

Either way, take some time to reflect on your last experience. What held you back from getting it sold before? And what can you do to improve your chances this time around? 

Be sure to include your current agent in this thought process. They’ll give you an objective point of view and some advice based on what may have gone wrong last time, like: 

  • Your Pricing Strategy: Did buyers overlook your house because it was priced too high? Your real estate agent can help you analyze the latest sales in your area to make sure you’re hitting the right number. Believe it or not, you could actually be leaving money on the table by not pricing competitively. When it’s priced appropriately for the market, your opportunities for multiple offers and buyer competition increase.
  • Your Marketing Approach: Was your home staged to look its best? Did you use a skilled photographer for your listing photos? Small tweaks can make a big difference in how buyers see your house. Something as simple as taking new photos now that it’s spring can help your house show better than it did in the winter listing.
  • Offering Concessions: Were you willing to offer incentives to buyers? As the supply of homes for sale grows, more sellers are entertaining the idea of concessions or incentives to get the deal done. If you weren’t open to those conversations, that may have been a factor, too.
  • Showings and Flexibility: Did you have limits on when buyers could see the home? If your house is accessible and available, you’ll likely get more offers.  

Bottom Line

If your house didn’t sell last year, spring may be your second chance. With buyer activity rising, it’s the perfect time to talk to an agent about coming back into the market with a fresh strategy. 

What do you want to do differently this time around? Talk to your agent to go over your options and make a plan.

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The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, Landshark Mark, LLC and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.