One major reason why we’re not heading toward a foreclosure crisis is the high level of equity homeowners have today. Unlike in the last housing bubble, where many homeowners owed more than their homes were worth, today’s homeowners have far more equity than debt.

That’s a big part of the reason why even though mortgage debt is at an all-time high, this isn’t 2008 all over again. As Bill McBride, Housing Analyst for Calculated Risk, explains:

“With the recent house price increases, some people are worried about a new housing bubble – but mortgage debt isn’t a concern . . .”

Today’s homeowners are in a much stronger position than ever before. So, let’s break it down and see why today’s mortgage debt isn’t anything to fear.

More Equity, Less Risk of Foreclosures

According to the St. Louis Fed, total homeowner equity is nearly triple the total mortgage debt today (see graph below):

High equity makes it less likely for homeowners to face foreclosure because they have more options. If someone struggles to make their mortgage payments, they could potentially sell their house and still come out ahead thanks to their built-up equity.

Even if home values were to dip, most homeowners would still have a comfortable cushion of equity. That’s a big contrast to the 2008 crisis, where many homeowners were underwater on their mortgages and had few options to avoid foreclosure.

Delinquency Rates Are Still Near Historic Lows

Another reassuring sign is that, according to the NY Fed, the number of mortgage payments that are more than 90 days late is still near historic lows (see graph below):

This is partly due to a variety of programs designed to help homeowners through temporary hardships. As Marina Walsh, VP of Industry Analysis at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), says:

“. . . servicers are helping at-risk homeowners avoid foreclosures through loan workout options that can mitigate temporary distress.”

So, even if someone falls behind on their payments, there are support systems in place to help them avoid foreclosure.

Low Unemployment Helps Keep the Market Stable

One other important factor is today’s low unemployment rate. More people have stable jobs, which means they’re better able to afford their mortgage payments. As Archana Pradhan, Principal Economist at CoreLogic, explains:

“Low unemployment numbers have helped reduce the overall delinquency rate . . .”

During the last housing crisis, unemployment was much higher, which led to a wave of foreclosures. Today’s unemployment rate is very different (see graph below):

That stability in how many people are employed is one of the reasons the market doesn’t have the same risks as it did the last time.

There’s no need to worry about a wave of distressed sales like the one we saw in 2008. Most homeowners today are employed and have low-interest mortgages they can afford, so they’re able to make their payments. As McBride states:

“The bottom line is there will not be a huge wave of distressed sales as happened following the housing bubble.” 

Bottom Line

While mortgage debt is high, rest assured the market isn’t on the brink of another crash. Instead, most homeowners are in a strong position. If you have questions or concerns, connect with a local real estate agent.

With everything feeling more expensive these days, it’s natural to worry about how rising costs might impact the housing market. Many people are concerned that high prices and tighter budgets could cause more homeowners to fall behind on their mortgage payments, leading to a wave of foreclosures.

But before you start worrying about a housing market crash, here’s a look at what’s really happening. And the good news is: the latest foreclosure data shows there’s no wave on the horizon.

How Today’s Market Is Different from 2008

Let’s ease those fears by looking at the bigger picture. The graph below uses research from ATTOM, a property data provider, to show that the number of homeowners starting the foreclosure process is nowhere near what we saw coming out of 2008. Back then, there was a big spike in how many foreclosures were happening. Today, the number is much lower – it’s even dropped some in the latest report. There’s a big difference between what’s happening now, and what happened when the housing market crashed (see graph below):

Just in case you’re wondering why the number of foreclosure filings has ticked up slightly since 2020 and 2021, here’s what you need to know. During those years, there was a moratorium (shown in white) designed to help millions of homeowners avoid foreclosure in challenging times. That’s why the numbers for just a few years ago were so incredibly low. If you look further back, it’s clear overall foreclosure filings are down significantly.

And if you’re wondering: how are there fewer foreclosures today, even when the cost of living has gotten so pricey? Here’s your answer. One of the main reasons is that homeowners today have a lot more equity built up in their homes than they did back in 2008. As an article from Bankrate explains:

“In the years after the housing crash, millions of foreclosures flooded the housing market, depressing prices. That’s not the case now. Most homeowners have a comfortable equity cushion in their homes.” 

This equity acts like a safety net and is allowing many homeowners to avoid going into foreclosure if they’re facing financial hardships. Even if someone is struggling to make their monthly payments, they may be able to sell their home and avoid foreclosure altogether. This is a far cry from the conditions during the crash when homeowners owed more on their mortgages than their homes were worth.

What’s Ahead for the Housing Market

It’s true that today’s higher cost of living across the board is a challenge for many people right now. But this doesn’t mean we’re heading for a surge in foreclosures.

The equity cushion that people have is helping to keep foreclosure filings low. Today’s homeowners have more options to avoid going into foreclosure.

Bottom Line

Yes, everyday costs for gas and food have gotten more expensive—but that doesn’t mean the housing market is on the brink of another foreclosure crisis. Data shows the market is far from a foreclosure wave. Homeowners today are in a much stronger financial position than they were during the 2008 crash, thanks to significant equity. 

Even though data shows inflation is cooling, a lot of people are still feeling the pinch on their wallets. And those high costs on everything from gas to groceries are fueling unnecessary concerns that more people are going to have trouble making their mortgage payments. But, does that mean there’s a big wave of foreclosures coming?

Here’s a look at why the data and the experts say that’s not going to happen.

There Aren’t Many Homeowners Who Are Seriously Behind on Their Mortgages

One of the main reasons there were so many foreclosures during the last housing crash was because relaxed lending standards made it easy for people to take out mortgages, even when they couldn’t show they’d be able to pay them back. At that time, lenders weren’t being as strict when looking at applicant credit scores, income levels, employment status, and debt-to-income ratio.

But since then, lending standards have gotten a whole lot tighter. Lenders became much more diligent when assessing applicants for home loans. And that means we’re seeing more qualified buyers who have less of a risk of defaulting on their loans.

That’s why data from Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae shows the number of homeowners who are seriously behind on their mortgage payments (known in the industry as delinquencies) has been declining for quite some time. Take a look at the graph below:  

What this means is that, not only are borrowers more qualified, but they’re also finding ways to navigate through their challenges, exploring their repayment options, or maybe even using the record amount of equity they have to sell and avoid foreclosure entirely.

The Answer Is: There’s No Sign of a Wave Coming

Before there can be a significant rise in foreclosures, the number of people who can’t make their mortgage payments would need to rise significantly. But, since so many buyers are making their payments today and homeowners have so much equity built up, a wave of foreclosures isn’t likely.

Take it from Bill McBride of Calculated Risk – an expert on the housing market who, after closely following the data and market leading up to the crash, was able to see the foreclosure crisis coming in 2008. McBride says:

“We will NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble) for two key reasons: 1) mortgage lending has been solid, and 2) most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes.”

Bottom Line

If you’re worried about a potential foreclosure crisis, know there’s nothing in the data to suggest that’ll happen. Buyers are more qualified now, and that’s one reason why they’re not falling seriously behind on their mortgage payments.