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Economy

What’s the Impact of Presidential Elections on the Housing Market?

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It’s no surprise that the upcoming Presidential election might have you speculating about what’s ahead. And those unanswered thoughts can quickly spiral, causing fear and uncertainty to swirl through your mind. So, if you’ve been considering buying or selling a home this year, you’re probably curious about what the election might mean for the housing market – and if it’s still a good time to make your move.

Here’s the good news that may surprise you: typically, Presidential elections have only had a small, temporary impact on the housing market. But your questions are definitely worth answering, so you don’t have to pause your plans in the meantime.

Here’s a look at decades of data that shows exactly what’s happened to home sales, prices, and mortgage rates in previous Presidential election cycles, so you can move forward with the facts as you weigh the pros and cons of your homeownership decision.

Home Sales

In the month leading up to a Presidential election, from October to November, there’s typically a slight slowdown in home sales (see graph below):

Some consumers will simply wait it out before they make their purchase decision. However, it’s important to know this slowdown is small and temporary.

Historically, home sales bounce right back and continue to rise the following year.

In fact, data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows after 9 of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales went up the year after the election, and it’s been happening consistently since the early 1990s (see chart below):

Home Prices

You may also be wondering about home prices. Do prices come down during election years? Not typically. As residential appraiser and housing analyst Ryan Lundquist notes:

“An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.”

Home prices generally rise over time, regardless of an election cycle. So, based on what history shows, you can expect the current pricing trend in your local market to likely continue, barring any unusual market or economic circumstances.

The latest data from NAR reveals that after 7 of the last 8 Presidential elections, home prices increased the following year (see chart below):

No Caption ReceivedThe one outlier was from 2008 to 2009, which was during the height of the housing market crash. That was certainly not a typical year. Today’s market, however, is much more resilient. And while prices are moderating nationally, they aren’t on an overall decline.

Mortgage Rates

And the third thing that’s likely on your mind is mortgage rates, since they impact your monthly payment if you’re financing a home. Looking at the last 11 Presidential election years, data from Freddie Mac shows mortgage rates decreased from July to November in 8 of them (see chart below):

No Caption ReceivedAnd this year, we’ve already started to see that happen. Most experts also forecast mortgage rates will ease slightly throughout the rest of 2024. If that happens – and all signs right now indicate it should – this year will continue to follow the trend of declining rates. So, if you’re looking to buy a home in the coming months, this could be great news for your purchasing power.

What This Means for You

What’s the big takeaway? While Presidential elections do have some impact on the housing market, the effects are usually minimal. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says:

“Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years.”

For most buyers and sellers, elections don’t have a major impact on their plans.

Bottom Line

While it’s natural to feel a bit uncertain during an election year, history shows the housing market remains strong and resilient. And this means you don’t have to pause your plans in the meantime. For help navigating the market during this election cycle, reach out to a local real estate agent. 

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Economy

Think It’s Better To Wait for a Recession Before You Move? Think Again.

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Fear of a recession is back in the headlines. And if you’re thinking about buying or selling sometime soon, that may leave you wondering if you should reconsider the timing of your move.

A recent survey by John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC) and Keeping Current Matters (KCM) shows 68% of people are delaying plans to buy or sell due to economic uncertainty.

But it may not be for the reason you think. Not everyone is holding off because they’re worried. Some buyers are waiting because they’re hopeful. According to Realtor.com:

In 2025Q1, 3 in 10 (29.8% of) surveyed homebuyers said a recession would make them at least somewhat more likely to purchase a home . . . This reflects a common dynamic where some buyers see a downturn as an opportunity. If the economy enters a recession, the Federal Reserve may respond by lowering interest rates to stimulate activity, potentially putting downward pressure on mortgage rates and easing affordability concerns. As a result, buyers—especially those with limited down payments—might view a recession as a more favorable time to enter the market.”

And there’s some truth to the idea that a recession could bring about lower mortgage rates. History shows mortgage rates usually drop during economic slowdowns. That’s not guaranteed – but it is a common pattern. Looking at data from the last six recessions, you can see mortgage rates fell each time (see graph below): 

a graph of a graph showing the rise of mortgage ratesBut here’s what those buyers may not be considering. Many of those hopeful buyers are assuming something else will happen too – that home prices will drop. And that’s where history tells a different story.

According to data from Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), home prices went up in four of the last six recessions (see graph below)

So, while many people think that if a recession hits, home prices will fall like they did in 2008, that was an exception, not the rule. It was the only time the market saw such a steep drop in prices. And it hasn’t happened since, mainly because there’s still a long-standing inventory deficit, even as the number of homes on the market is rising.

Since prices tend to stay on whatever path they’re already on, know this: prices are still holding steady or rising in most metros, although at a much slower pace. So, a big drop isn’t likely. As Robert Frick, Corporate Economist with Navy Federal Credit Union, explains:

“Hopes that an economic slowdown will depress housing prices are wishful thinking at this point . . .”

Bottom Line

If you’ve been waiting for a recession to make your move, it’s important to understand what really happens during one – and what likely won’t. Lower mortgage rates could be on the table. But lower home prices? That’s far less likely.

Don’t wait for a market that may never come. If you’re thinking about buying or selling, connect with an agent to talk through what today’s economy really means for you – and make a smart plan that works in your favor, regardless of what the headlines say.

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Economy

Why Buying Real Estate Is Still the Best Long-Term Investment

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Lately, it feels like every headline about the housing market comes with a side of doubt. Are prices going up or down? Are we headed for a crash? Will rates ever come down? And all the media noise may leave you wondering: does it really make sense to buy a home right now?

But here’s one thing that doesn’t get enough airtime. Real estate has always been about the long game. And when you look at the big picture, not just the latest clickbait headlines, it’s easy to see why so many people say it’s still the best investment you can make – even now.

According to the just-released annual report from Gallup, real estate has been voted the best long-term investment for the 12th year in a row. That’s over a decade of beating out stocks, gold, and bonds as America’s top pick.

a graph of different colored squaresAnd this isn’t new. Real estate usually claims the #1 title. But here’s what’s really interesting. This year’s results came in just after a rocky April for the stock and bond markets. It shows that, even as other investments had wild swings, real estate has held its ground. That’s likely because it gains value in a steadier, more predictable way. As Gallup explains:

“Amid volatility in the stock and bond markets in April, Americans’ preference for stocks as the best long-term investment has declined. Gold has gained in appeal, while real estate remains the top choice for the 12th consecutive year.”

That says a lot. Even though things may feel a bit uncertain in today’s economy, real estate can still be a powerful investment.

Yes, home values are rising at a more moderate pace right now. And sure, in some markets, prices may be flat in the year ahead or even dip a little – but that’s just the short-term view. Don’t let that cloud the bigger picture.

Real estate has a long track record of gaining value over time. That’s the kind of growth you can count on, especially if you plan to live in that home for a long time.

That’s part of why Americans continue to buy-in to homeownership – even when the headlines may sound a little uncertain. As Sam Williamson, Senior Economist at First American, says:

“A home is more than just a place to live—it’s often a family’s most valuable financial asset and a cornerstone to building long-term wealth.”

Bottom Line

Real estate isn’t about overnight wins. It’s about long-term gains. So, don’t let the uncertainty in a shifting market make you think it’s a bad time to buy. 

If you’re feeling unsure, just remember: Americans have consistently said real estate is the best long-term investment you can make. And if you want more information about why so many people think homeownership is worth it, reach out to a local real estate agent.

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Economy

Real Estate Is Voted the Best Long-Term Investment 12 Years in a Row

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a screenshot of a cell phone

Some Highlights

  • In a recent poll from Gallup, real estate has once again been voted the best long-term investment. And it’s claimed that top spot for 12 straight years now.
  • That’s because homeownership is one of the top ways to build your wealth, even with home price growth moderating and ongoing economic uncertainty.
  • If you’ve been trying to decide if it makes sense to buy a home today, connect with an agent to talk about the programs that can help you become a homeowner.

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The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage, Landshark Mark, LLC and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate, Mark Sincavage and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.