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2025 Housing Market Forecasts: What To Expect

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Looking ahead to 2025, it’s important to know what experts are projecting for the housing market. And whether you’re thinking of buying or selling a home next year, having a clear picture of what they’re calling for can help you make the best possible decision for your homeownership plans.

Here’s an early look at the most recent projections on mortgage rates, home sales, and prices for 2025.

Mortgage Rates Are Projected To Come Down Slightly

Mortgage rates play a significant role in the housing market. The forecasts for 2025 from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the National Association of Realtors (NAR), and Wells Fargo show an expected gradual decline in mortgage rates over the course of the next year (see chart below):

No Caption ReceivedMortgage rates are projected to come down because continued easing of inflation and a slight rise in unemployment rates are key signs of a strong but slowing economy. And many experts believe these signs will encourage the Federal Reserve to lower the Federal Funds Rate, which tends to lead to lower mortgage rates. As Morgan Stanley says:

“With the U.S. Federal Reserve widely expected to begin cutting its benchmark interest rate in 2024, mortgage rates could drop as well—at least slightly.”

Expect More Homes To Sell

The market will see an increase in both the supply of available homes on the market, as well as a rise in demand, as more buyers and sellers who have been sitting on the sidelines because of higher rates choose to make a move. That’s one big reason why experts are projecting an increase in home sales next year.

According to Fannie Mae, MBA, and NAR, total home sales are forecast to climb slightly, with an average of about 5.4 million homes expected to sell in 2025 (see graph below):

No Caption ReceivedThat would represent a modest uptick from the lower sales numbers in 2023 and 2024. For reference, about 4.8 million total homes were sold in 2023, and expectations are for around 4.5 million homes to sell this year.

While slightly lower mortgage rates are not expected to bring a flood of buyers and sellers back to the market, they certainly will get more people moving. That means more homes available for sale – and competition among buyers who want to purchase them.

Home Prices Will Go Up Moderately

More buyers ready to jump into the market will put continued upward pressure on prices. Take a look at the latest price forecasts from 10 of the most trusted sources in real estate (see graph below):

No Caption ReceivedOn average, experts forecast home prices will rise nationally by about 2.6% next year. But as you can see, there’s a range of opinions on how much prices will climb. Experts agree, however, that home prices will continue to increase moderately next year at a slower, more normal rate. But keep in mind, prices will always vary by local market.

Bottom Line

Understanding 2025 housing market forecasts can help you plan your next move. Whether you’re buying or selling, staying informed about these trends will ensure you make the best decision possible. Reach out to a trusted real estate agent to discuss how these forecasts could impact your plans.

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Affordability

The Latest Builder Trend: Smaller, Less Expensive Homes

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Even though affordability is improving, buying a home can still feel tough right now. But here’s some good news: builders are focusing their efforts on building smaller homes, and they’re offering key incentives to buyers. And both of these things can be a big help if you’re worried about finding a home that’s right for your budget. 

Builders Are Building Smaller Homes 

During the pandemic, homebuyers were looking for larger homes—and many could afford them. Builders responded to that demand and created bigger spaces to help people with things like working from home, setting up home gyms, and having extra rooms for virtual school.

Now, with affordability as tight as it is, builders are turning their focus to smaller single-family homes. Data from the Census shows how significant this trend toward smaller new homes has been over the last couple of years (see graph below):

No Caption ReceivedBut why would builders want to build smaller homes right now? At the end of the day, builders are going to focus on building homes that meet current market demand – because they want to build what they know will sell. And the number one thing homebuyers are looking for right now is better affordability. Since smaller homes typically come with smaller price tags, both buyers and builders have shifted their focus to homes with less square footage. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reports:

 “. . . home buyers are looking for homes around 2,070 square feet, compared to 2,260 20 years ago.” 

And according to Orphe Divounguy, Senior Economist at Zillow:

“Not only are cash-strapped buyers continually seeking out lower-cost options, but developers are changing what type and size of home they’re producing to try and meet that need.” 

How a Newly Built Home Can Help You Achieve Your Homebuying Goals

So, if you’re having a hard time finding something in your budget, it may be time to look at brand-new homes that have a smaller footprint. When you do, you may get a few other fringe benefits that can help on the affordability front – like price reductions or mortgage rate buy-downs.

According to the most recent data from Zonda, more than half of builders are offering incentives, some of which are mortgage rate buydowns. And those perks could help lower your future monthly housing payment too. John Burns, CEO of John Burns Research & Consulting, shares:

The monthly payment matters more than anything else and builders have responded with smaller, more efficient homes.”

Not to mention, with new home construction, you’ll also get brand new everything, have fewer maintenance needs, and get some of the latest features available. That’s worth looking into, right?

Bottom Line

With builders focusing on smaller homes, you have more budget-friendly options when it matters most. If you’re thinking about buying a home soon, work with a local real estate agent to see what’s available where you want to live.

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For Buyers

Mortgage Rates Drop to Lowest Level in over a Year and a Half

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Mortgage rates have hit their lowest point in over a year and a half. And that’s big news if you’ve been sitting on the homebuying sidelines waiting for this moment.

Even a small decline in rates could help you get a better monthly payment than you would expect on your next home. And the drop that’s happened recently isn’t small. As Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, says:

“Mortgage rates have fallen more than half a percent . . . and are at their lowest level since February 2023.”

But if you want to see it to really believe it, here’s how the math shakes out. Take a closer look at the impact on your monthly payment.

The chart below shows what a monthly payment (principal and interest) would look like on a $400K home loan if you purchased a house back in April (this year’s mortgage rate high), versus what it could look like if you buy a home now (see below):

No Caption ReceivedGoing from 7.5% just a few months ago to the low 6s has a big impact on your bottom line. In just a few months’ time, the anticipated monthly payment on a $400K loan has come down by over $370. That’s hundreds of dollars less per month.

Bottom Line

With the recent drop in mortgage rates, the purchasing power you have right now is better than it’s been in almost two years. Talk to a local real estate agent about your options and how you can make the most of this moment you’ve been waiting for.

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Buying Tips

The Best Time To Buy a Home This Year

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A shift is underway in the housing market this season. And if you’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the right moment to jump back into your homebuying search, this is a great time to do it. That’s because the best week to buy a home this year is just around the corner. Your sweet spot is here.

 The experts at Realtor.com study seasonal trends to figure out the ideal week for homebuyers:

Nationally, the best time to buy in 2024 is the week of Sept. 29–Oct. 5. This week historically has shown the best balance of market conditions that favor buyers. Inventory tends to be high, prices are below peak levels, demand is waning, and the pace of the market slows to a more manageable speed.” 

In addition to the historical trends and typical seasonality that Realtor.com looks at, there are also clear indicators in today’s market data that you’ll see better conditions right now than you would have over the last few years.

Mortgage rates just hit their lowest point in 19 months, and that goes a long way to help with your purchasing power and affordability. Andy Walden with Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) points out:

“Recent easing in mortgage rates brought some much-sought relief to prospective homebuyers. Along with a general cooling in home price growth, rates falling below 6.5 percent made August the most affordable month for housing since February.”

And Ralph McLaughlin, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, explains that it’s not just rates that have improved – inventory has too: 

“The number of homes actively for sale continues to be elevated compared with last year, growing by 35.8%, a 10th straight month of growth, and now sits at the highest since May 2020.”

That should give you more options. At the same time, sellers now have to compete with each other for your attention. That means they’ll be more likely to negotiate because they know their house will sit on the market longer if they don’t. As Zillow says:

Buyers waiting on the sidelines could find that early fall presents a ‘sweet spot,’ where there’s less competition from other buyers, more motivated sellers and lower interest rates to finance their purchases.”

Bottom Line

If you want to make sure you’re ready to take advantage of this sweet spot, connect with a local real estate agent and start the prep work now. Maybe it’s time to get off the sidelines and into the action.

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The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in these article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Let's Talk Real Estate and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Let's Talk Real Estate and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.